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Jack's Final Prediction For The 2012 Election


               
2012 Oct 21, 12:27am   38,395 views  83 comments

by ohomen171   follow (2)  

My dear friends Patrick.net is not a political forum. But this morning I am going to predict the outcome of the presidential election. This election has many aspects of my first presidential election in 1948. President Harry Truman ran against Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Harry pulled an incredible upset and beat Dewey even after a New York Times front page headline saying that Dewey had won. The first possible outcome is that Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral vote.

My 'wild card" prediction is that the pollsters have not correctly identified and counted potential Hispanic voters who are going to turn out. If this is the case, Obama will win both the popular vote and electoral vote but certainly not like he did in 2008.

The Democrats will retain control of the US Senate. The Republicans will lose some seats in Congress but still retain control there.

Please do not get mad at me or think that I m crazy. I correctly predicted the Supreme Court vote on Obamacare, even down to Judge Roberts casting the decisive vote in favor.

#politics

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72   dublin hillz   2012 Oct 23, 5:57am  

Honest Abe says

Who do you trust more, yourself or government?


If you trust yourself to make the best decisions for you and your family vote for the American, Romney.


If you trust government to make better decisions than you could make for yourself and your family, then vote for the muslim.

You are beginning to sound like Saul Alinsky! What an irony.

73   CL   2012 Oct 23, 6:35am  

Bap33 says

My Capn America is not a sodomite. You can make yours what you wish.

Something was up with Bucky. Plus, we all know those overcompensating jingoists are usually closeted queens.

74   Daytona   2012 Oct 23, 6:43am  

ohomen171 says

My 'wild card" prediction is that the pollsters have not correctly identified and counted potential Hispanic voters who are going to turn out.

I always get the impression that telephone polls, household surveys are no longer representative in this day and age.

Take myself as an example, you will never reach me on a landline, nor any of family members. So far, I have never heard of any situation where pollsters call cell phone nor anyone would even talk to a pollster on a cell phone.

The most likely people who take the time to answer these things are retirees and a certain demograhic.

Despite what the polls indicate, my prediction is Obama 300.

75   CL   2012 Oct 23, 6:45am  

Daytona says

o far, I have never heard of any situation where pollsters call cell phone nor anyone would even talk to a pollster on a cell phone.

I believe even that Gallup outlier used cell phones. Question is, how was it weighted?

76   david1   2012 Oct 23, 6:55am  

Daytona says

Take myself as an example, you will never reach me on a landline, nor any of family members. So far, I have never heard of any situation where pollsters call cell phone nor anyone would even talk to a pollster on a cell phone.

I still have a Florida cell phone number. I was polled on it.

77   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 23, 9:49am  

CL says

I believe even that Gallup outlier used cell phones. Question is, how was it weighted?

I am thinking that they all use cell phone numbers, since that would be a seriously amateurish move not to. I do believe that there was a previous election where somebody didn't and it did affect their accuracy.

78   Bap33   2012 Oct 23, 12:38pm  

I've never, ever, been poled. I'm a virgin. (cheap pun ... but kinda funny)

79   rooemoore   2012 Oct 24, 11:44am  

Bap33 says

help me out, where does my post mention wealth? I am pretty sure it says taxes paid as a percentage of income.

Fair enough - I get two votes, Romney gets one.

Bap33 says

. Oh, now I see, you only want folks to be treated equal when the lazy, drugged, or ignorant is given a special leg up?

The lazy and drugged don't vote. As for the ignorant, well, that would be swell if we could agree what constitutes "ignorant". And we'll let you tell the rednecks with shotguns that they don't get full voting privileges.

80   gbenson   2012 Oct 24, 12:09pm  

rooemoore says

we'll let you tell the rednecks with shotguns that they don't get full voting privileges.

Stop it! I laughed so hard I nearly launched my dinner across the table when I read that one..

The premise that a representative democracy was predicated on the fact that not all the constituents were literate (in fact a small percentage were), or informed about issues. At least in theory, both of those hurdles should no longer be present, although the latter is very debatable.

81   edvard2   2012 Oct 24, 12:13pm  

I don't know if this is news. Polls pretty much show Obama winning the electoral vote by a fairly good margin and winning the popular vote, but by a very narrow margin. That just about sums it up...

82   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 25, 12:33am  

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%

Detroit newspaper endorses Romney
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121025/OPINION01/210250332/1008/opinion01/Editorial-Mitt-Romney-President

Seriously, if Obama can't beat Romney in Michigan by a substantial margin, it might be over for Obama.

83   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 25, 11:38am  

zzyzzx says

Seriously, if Obama can't beat Romney in Michigan by a substantial margin, it might be over for Obama.

Beckel ... Its Over !

http://www.4emiu81OTdU

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