patrick.net

robertoaribas says

not worth the read... kid went to work in mom and dad's mortgage business. and that makes him a freaking economist?

In other words, you can't necessarily discredit what he is saying, so you discredit him? Where does he claim to be an economist? BTW, it doesn't take an "economist" to observe the obvious.

robertoaribas says

As this interesting time in housing continues, it becomes more and more clear how I sold before the bubble, and bought so much at the bottom, and have now made and will continue to make so much money: My compitetion, people like Yupsuck and tanyerbottom are so much less intelligent than me!

thanks for being you, it makes being me easier!

You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.

As far as the hysterical shrieking of Robertoaribas goes .. always consider this....

"Opinions founded on prejudice are always sustained with the greatest violence"

Oscar Wilde

Yup says

I believe that my 144 IQ would trounce you.

Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

ELC says

Yup says

I believe that my 144 IQ would trounce you.

Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

Oh come on. He's bought a bunch of cheap houses in Phoenix and is renting them out for far more than his PITI. He's quids in. It would hardly make any difference to him if prices collapsed in Phoenix (and considering they are still relatively cheap even with recent rises, it doesn't exactly look likely). If you really think he should be having sleepness nights given his situation, then you are living in la-la land.

Bigsby says

robertoaribas says

As this interesting time in housing continues, it becomes more and more clear how I sold before the bubble, and bought so much at the bottom, and have now made and will continue to make so much money: My compitetion, people like Yupsuck and tanyerbottom are so much less intelligent than me!

thanks for being you, it makes being me easier!

You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.

Wow...resorting to a bunch of unwarranted childish name-calling, being an arrogrant prick (may as well return the name-calling) and taking pleasure in the supposed misfortune of people you don't even know or ever will know? All in the same post?Roberto clearly has issues. Not to mention no class whatsoever. I'd hate to be one of his tenants.

Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him". You don't see Warren Buffett going around boasting about his fortunes, although he certainly could - it's called humility and class.

Roberto: This post wasn't about nor intended to be all about your vast real estate holdings in greater Phoenix. I certainly wasn't inquiring about them and really could not care less. You have already established your legendary status in your own mind, been the star of far too many of your own posts and have hijacked too many others, including this one.

robertoaribas says

Low inventory relative to demand leads to price increases, PERIOD. It doesn't matter why the inventory is low, the result is the same.

You continue to repeat this over and over again without any explanation of what you believe the upper bounds of that price increase are.

Of course the answer is that prices will rise until its profitable to built again.

In otherwords, there is an upper cap on where prices will rise to(or at least the speed at which prices rise).

However the way you state it....theres another phrase for that....

"Buy now or be priced out forever".

Which is quite hillarious since you were arguing against that exact same thing five years ago.

*in the confines of the Phoenix metro area.

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.
it matters where it is and what it is. U did great and have been ahead of the curve for years. Make your money and let the others debate the reasons.Keep laughing all the way to the bank.

the bears bet on the RE market and lost. The bulls have won. always ainner and loser in any economic investment.

mike2 says

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.
it matters where it is and what it is. U did great and have been ahead of the curve for years. Make your money and let the others debate the reasons.Keep laughing all the way to the bank.

the bears bet on the RE market and lost. The bulls have won. always ainner and loser in any economic investment.

Yeah great job Roberto! The problem is I don't frankly give a damn about Roberto or what the market is doing in Phoenix and I suspect the majority here don't really care either - yet here he is tooting his horn day after day. Look at me! Look at me! Aren't I awesome?! Aren't I special?! Give it a rest already.

robertoaribas says

tannenbaum says

The problem is I don't frankly give a damn about Roberto or what the market is doing in Phoenix and I suspect the majority here don't really care either - yet here he is tooting his horn day after day. Look at me! Look at me! Aren't I awesome?! Aren't I special?! Give it a rest already.

and yet here you are, reading my posts, quoting them... getting your little girl panties all bunched up about them... but you don't care!

Your posts have hijacked this thread that *I* started. I have no choice but to suffer through your insufferable insights. I purposely avoid your threads, but apparently, like a moth to a flame, you can't get enough of this one that I started.

I have an idea- why not ask Patrick change this entire website to the "isn't it great to be Roberto" website since that is what it has sadly devolved into being...

robertoaribas says

My first comment was on the poor economic analysis in the article you quoted. You had to make it personal about me...

p>

I'm sorry that you missed your chance to buy, however, taking your jealousy and rage out on me is not very healthy for you... now quit posting and get back to your job, work hard, while I take a nice easy day of walking my dog and doing yoga! you have to pay your rent after all!

.

Reading comprehension isn't a strong suit of yours is it? My initial comment to you after criticizing my link wasn't personal at all, then you proceed to call me a nitwit, etc.

WRONG AGAIN buddy! You couldn't be more wrong about me if you tried. I can do this all day. Just read what you have written above. You are a complete sociopath.

tannenbaum says

Just read what you have written above. You are a complete sociopath.

Classic delusions of granduer IF he's serious and not just yanking your chain.

Oh I get it...I'm supposed to engage in meaningful discussion with someone after they have called me names with your latest telling me to "piss off, loser" before you promptly edited your post. No thanks.

"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

That's what the bottle is for.

Economist, interesting take on things.

Would you care to ask this kid a question, who worked for Mommy and Daddy

mike2 says

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.

That's a ridiculous generalization. What's important is HOW and WHY each individual market is manipulated. Roberto got out two years too soon in '05 and is getting in two years too early now. As a result of playing it safe he's going to get to keep his shirt but he will be crying in his rice and beans.

I just feel bad for the poor kids in his classes.
Little Juan: "But Mr. aribas, you just said that 17 was a prime number last week! How did that change?"
RA: "When you've got seven houses in this town you can question me!"

Yup says

Bubbaariba's if you knew anything about markets and how they function you would understand that when anyone artificially manipulated supply or demand you have a dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price.

Actually, over time, manipulation is built in and becomes the new normal. For example, certain ag products such as milk prices have been manipulated (and sometimes heavily manipulated) for the last 70+ years. Yet, very few are waiting for the manipulation to end before they buy some milk.

CDon says

milk prices have been manipulated (and sometimes heavily manipulated) for the last 70+ years. Yet, very few are waiting for the manipulation to end before they buy some milk.

So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

"Housing does a body good."

Logan Mohtashami says

Would you care to ask this kid a question, who worked for Mommy and Daddy

I would think growing up in the business would give you more insight than someone who walked in off the street. Don't mind Roberto. That's his way of whistling past the graveyard. Welcome.

tannenbaum says

Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him".

Roberto is clearly not here to learn. He knows it all. He's staying on a bearish forum when he's clearly a bull now. Is it mature to try to change a bunch of bears into bulls by insulting and belittling them? Somebody is a few tacos short of a combo platter. Now why would someone like that be here?

Successful, healthy people surround themselves with people who are supportive of what they're doing.

Bigsby says

If you really think he should be having sleepness nights given his situation, then you are living in la-la land.

If he can't keep his places rented and the rents drop yet his expenses stay the same he's going to need to sell. Oh but wait, the market has declined and he can't sell without a loss...

Can't happen. "La la land." Just watch.

robertoaribas says

I teach calculus... Maybe that is the problem i have on here, is that I'm used to speaking to people that have some intelligence and ability to learn.

hey patrick, this element could stand a good ole delete hisself.

ELC says

So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

Not at all. The point was a very limited one refuting the contention that due to manipulation, you will have a "dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price." You absolutely can if the manipulation continues for so long that it becomes part of the market.

So the question as to when to "invest" (and I actually kinda hate that word in this context as many here simply want to buy a place and get on with life w/o fear there is another monumental drop dead ahead) is when do you see the purported "manipulation" ending and how? Will it be quick and maybe cause a dislocation? Or will it be drawn out into a huge nothing burger?

Now the question as to the particular "artificial" condition of underwater sellers holding out causing a dearth of inventory - had you really thought about it in 07 & 08, how else would one expect a bottom to form? Fact of the matter is, prices in some areas will not hit nominal highs for 10-20 years, meaning underwater homeowners will be a way of life for some markets for at least that long.

And now that the powers that be have been manipulating more heavily since TARP, QE, etc. have seen the results of their manipulation turn a scorching downturn into years of stagnation, why would they suddenly change course? In essence why would they suddenly rip the band aid off, potentially destroying the stagnation they worked so hard to create in the first place?

So the question now is what will these underwater homeowners do going forward? Absent a black swan type event, (which is a potential factor now, 10 years from now, and every other moment of our lives) will they suddenly, en masse decide that they cant take it any more, puke up short sale inventory in droves, potentially driving prices back to the stone age...

or

Will they do what they did to cause a bottom in the first place, which is individually, and agonizngly slowly make non-uniform decisions. To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate - basically the same decisions they individually have been making since the beginning of the bursting in 07, the arresting of the downward momentum in 09, and the stagnation of the last 3 years.

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

So if you are investing, you better do it for rents - and if places dont pencil out in your area, dont invest in homes.

And if you are waiting to buy a place to live in, do so, only because you need to get your down payment or other financial affairs in order first - or because you just arent ready. There clearly is no need to rush.

Still if your reason to wait is because you see TPTB suddenly ripping the band aid off, and underwater homeowners capitulating en masse, creating a fantasy land of manna from heaven inventory levels and stone age prices, well, I dont know what to tell you.

CDon says

To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

BTW, great post.

CDon says

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.

ELC says

BTW, great post.

Thank you. while im not above the occasional snark, I do appreciate discouse too.

ELC says

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

OK, but arent they, by definition all following the herd now? Right now, the herd is (1) sitting tight toughing it out and (2) capitulating so slowly and so infrequently as to cause the dearth of inventory and bottom we see now.

It sounds like you are assuming the herd (which has been following the path above for the past 3-4 years) will suddenly capitulate en masse. Outside of a black swan event (which IMO if you worry about this everpresent fact of life is a reason to never buy) is there anything specific you see happening that will change the situation?

ELC says

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

Abhorent or not, they do exist. Witness for example the early 90s real estate bust. From 1992-1998 the stagnation continued, pretty much unabated before prices took off again. No money was made (or lost) during that time. As an aside - if you go gack to the early days of the internet chatrooms, you see some interesting paralels where people are fairly convinced the 92-98 stagnation was just a prelude to a much bigger catastrophic drop in home prices.

ELC says

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.

Here we disagree, not only in intent but in scope. TPTB intent is not to create another "bubble", but instead a "floor". Thats why I believe all those who are calling for a real "recovery" will be disappointed as we continue to stagnate and work off the excesses.

As to scope, frankly, I dont think you have any real idea how far they are willing to go to keep a floor in place. Remember, back in 08, a real honest to goodness liquidity trap was setting up - CPI actually fell, Ted spread was off the charts, we broke the buck for godsakes.

All that talk of "we were 6 hours away from TEOTWAKI in the form of electronic bank runs" was not all hyperbole. Among many of the wonks, that really was how close we were.

So, rightly or wrongly, you have to keep in mind thats what is driving their thinking and the scope of how much juice they have to keep the floor in place. The thinking among TPTB is that a true honest to goodness liquidity trap is so dangerous that it simply cannot be allowed to happen. Revolutions are borne on the shoulders of such events.

Thus, before they have to roll out the tanks to defend the status quo, ask yourself what they will do to prevent this possibility.

Interest rate changes
Changes in Discount rates
ZIRP
QE
TARP
QE2
Operation Twist
QE3 (we are here)
QE to infinity
Nationalization of industries or sectors of the economy.
Debt Jubilees
Selective Defaults
Printing of checks to every man woman and child in the US (remember, the moniker "helecopter ben" isnt mere hyperbole - read his position paper on how far he would go to prevent deflation).
The Sale of govt controlled assets.
Privatization of licenses.
The sale of Alaska.

Again, not saying I agree with their viewpoint. I do however understand what they (at least think) they are up against. So long as thats the case, I really dont see why they will suddenly "rip the band aid off" given the alternative is so much more potentially devestating than the status quo.

robertoaribas says

cdon just wrote a very cogent explanation of the market... and immediately gets a dislike...
see, that is what starts to set some people (like me) off on this site. His response was frankly one out of a hundred in terms of quality on this blog; If you don't like his premises or conclusions, explain how you see the world differently...

Ive always found that strange too. Construct a decent argument and (other than ELC who had a thoughtful one) get nary a peep in response other than a bunch of dislikes.

If there was a agree/disagree button, that would make a bit more sense - almost like "I disagree with what you are saying, but I dont have the time or energy to pen a response". And maybe in fact that is what people are trying to say.

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger. So my guess is more often then not the dislike is either:

"I dont like what you are saying. I think you are wrong, but I dont have the ability to debate you on the merits, so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

or

"I actually think you could be right - but I dont want to admit that, and I dont like that you are telling me something I dont want to hear...so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

Either way, its rather disappointing. Incidentally, I won der how many dislikes this post about the nature of dislikes will get?

CDon says

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger.

I find it that way on all forums where it's free to join and you can post anonymously with little moderator interference. Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry. In fact they're probably watching TV and talking with their spouse at the same time they're typing. Others have a whiskey in one hand and are typing with the other. Don't take it to heart.

I *only* use message boards while drinking

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

Roberto, I agree with bmwman. Use the ignore button. I think your post are pretty informative from the landlord perspective, but getting into flame wars where you're calling people "morons, little girls, etc" and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.

Man, I was in the Philippines a while back when I used to work for Goldman sachs. All I remember is that metro Manilla was brutal. The heat, the smog, the traffic. I'm guessing whereever you're moving isn't near there.

Billybigrig says

you may have received one dislike but did anyone once use a condenseding retort

Only mildly. But still, fair point.

Billybigrig says

the only thing this guy is doing is trying to say a few hail Mary's and thinks everthing will be all warm and fuzzy again...
In my neck of the woods we call it backpeddling...

Not sure I understand. What "guy"?

ELC says

Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry.

Probably true as im relatively new to blogging. Still seems like a waste of time to mostly log in to hurl insults, but obviously, im in the minority.

robertoaribas says

and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.
It was liarwhaterver that started that "buying exotic private islands..."
I intend to RETIRE to an exotic non private island... why the hell would I want a private island? where would I go out to eat? do yoga? hang out in coffee shops playing on the internet? find friends to kayak and mountain bike with?

Completely OT, but I happen to know a guy who bought a private island...Big Mistake.

Theyre actually kinda cheap so the guy (who had IBM ground floor money) bought it on a lark. The reason they are so cheap however is they are undeveloped - and development costs a FORTUNE. Had to build a mini wastewater treatment facility to get enough drinking water. For the pouring of the slab, it was actually cheaper to build a facility & manufacture the concrete on site, than it was to ship in fully loaded cement trucks from the nearest islands. Insurance was sky high as risks like "piracy" were built into the policy. He had to contract with the Govt to ensure they would defend his island if it were invaded. Overall it was a nightmare.

MsBennet says

By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

somethings are best said in italian: ce l’ ha piccolo!

robertoaribas says

pazuzu says

"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

That's what the bottle is for.

yes, with 13 homes and 5 mortgages, I feel really nervous. I mean, I only take in $13,000 a month in rent, and I have to pay $7000 in bills including the home I live in... Hell, if things turned really bad, i'd actually have to use some of my salary for living expenses. Oh the horror!

Quick, look over here! Look at how great I am! Roberto, if you only knew the kind of lot that many readers on here are carrying. Your Phoenix empire would barely carry the monthly cost for a regular 2bd condo in many metro areas. Give it a rest. Go help your students skip a grade. That would be more honorable than calling people names over and over on this site.

bmwman91 says

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

touche

robertoaribas says

I teach college not grade school

Jr College :)