patrick.net

Utah fertility rate....

Only 40% of Utahns are active Morons. Fertility rates among Morons are consistently higher than the general population: even in the UK with its NHS and a lower infant mortality rate than the USA, Moron fertility dwarfs British and exceeds even South African, where infant mortality is 10x higher.

Substitution does not resurrect your false claim. You wrote, "Areas of Africa with the best healthcare, see declining birth rates." To the extent those variables correlate, the causation is precisely opposite of the claim you were trying to make. In Africa as elsewhere, areas with declining birth rates are better able to take care of their population and achieve lower infant mortality and greater prosperity. That is why China implemented a "one-child policy," which many families continue even though allowed to have more. It is also why serious efforts focus on providing people (especially women) access to contraception, but struggle due to pseudo-liberal cultural "respect" for religious potentates' insistence on prohibiting it.

The issue in central Africa comes down to forest vs trees. If you react by "generously" using western bounty to "contain" each problem, you don't solve the fundamental issues of kleptocracies and general refusal to reason together and cooperate successfully. Instead, you enlarge those problems, as each "aid" effort enables the next crisis. The perennial largest per capita recipient of foreign aid is Haiti, where generous pseudo-"aid" infects people with cholera and crushes local enterprises. At least if you develop a vaccine against ebola, or HIV, you can end that particular crisis permanently, instead of merely staving it off temporarily to grow even larger.

41

Shaman 2014 Sep 26, 10:37pm

I've also learned (through experience) that if you feed stray cats you get more stray cats to feed.

42

Vicente 2014 Sep 28, 1:39am

In Africa as elsewhere, areas with declining birth rates are better able to take care of their population and achieve lower infant mortality and greater prosperity.

Mexico similarly has a reputation for turning out lots of babies. Which is no longer true. Better healthcare, sanitation, and water quality are followed by lower birth rates. You have the cart before the horse.

Last figure I found for Mormons was 3.0 in the 1990's. Anecdotes about BMW filled with dozens of kids, is not useful population trend data.

43 bob2356 2014 Sep 28, 2:21am

If 18% represents the 6200 current cases.... just do the math...

The math says 30k in a continent with a population of 1 billion. My calculator can't do that small a percentage.

44

New Renter 2014 Sep 28, 2:33am

Quigley says

I've also learned (through experience) that if you feed stray cats you get more stray cats to feed.

Spay and release "fixes" that problem quite effectively.

Also fixes your rodent problems.

Call it Crazy says

If 18% represents the 6200 current cases.... just do the math...

The math says 30k in a continent with a population of 1 billion. My calculator can't do that small a percentage.

Try scientific notation. :P

45

curious2 2014 Sep 28, 8:31am

curious2 says

In Africa as elsewhere, areas with declining birth rates are better able to take care of their population and achieve lower infant mortality and greater prosperity.

Mexico similarly has a reputation for turning out lots of babies. Which is no longer true. Better healthcare, sanitation, and water quality are followed by lower birth rates. You have the cart before the horse.

Vicente, copying and pasting the cart/horse metaphor from my comment to yours begins to seem too childish even for a digression about birth rates and infant mortality, like saying "No I'm not you are." If you are actually interested in this topic, you might want to read about the extensive empirical research considering multiple hypotheses including your preferred assumption. "In contrast to the remarkably unambiguous empirical evidence supporting the existence of an impact of fertility on infant and child mortality, evidence of an effect of infant and child mortality on fertility has been stubbornly elusive, with different data and models yielding very different results." It's a longer topic for a different thread, not particularly relevant to your OP about Ebola, except possibly in the Malthusian sense where the relevant populations increase inexorably until reduced by catastrophic famine or overcrowding/disease.

46 bob2356 2014 Sep 28, 10:27am

OK, get out your calculator and use your 30K TODAY and map it with this chart through Nov. and Dec and tell us what you get..

The absolute worst case anyone has projected is 1.4 million. Is that the number you are looking for? If this epidemic hadn't happened in the poorest most war torn part of Africa with almost zero facilities to deal with an elboa outbreak it would already be under control.

It's not a pandemic, it's not going to be an epidemic in any country with reasonable medical facilities, so what are you panicking about?

47

Y 2014 Sep 28, 10:37am

we are all children in Uncle Al's Playhouse.

Vicente, copying and pasting the cart/horse metaphor from my comment to yours begins to seem too childish even for a digression about birth rates and infant mortality

48

Y 2014 Sep 28, 10:42am

The moment you place food in front of a stray cat, it is no longer classified as "stray". You have taken ownership by providing for the feline in it's time of need. It is now your pet.
Therefore, any kittys your cat burps out are technically your GrandPets, also under your financial umbrella, and are not 'stray cats'.
Your statement below does not hold water.

Quigley says

I've also learned (through experience) that if you feed stray cats you get more stray cats to feed

49

Tenpoundbass 2014 Sep 28, 1:01pm

If Sierra Leone is completely depopulated, they could move it and make it a White Conservative's Utopia. A shining beacon of Gold Dollars & Freedom.

Yep ye oh whittey he be opining fo dis

50 bob2356 2014 Sep 28, 1:09pm

How come in every other outbreak in that area, they were able to contain it at a few hundred people?

What's different this time?

In what area? There's never been an outbreak in western Africa before. Zaire/drc, Ugunda, Gabon, Sudan are over two thousand miles away (at least) from Guiana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. That's like NY to LA.

What's different this time is just what I said. The countries are crowded, poor, war torn, with almost non existent medical facilites to isolate the virus victums.

51

New Renter 2014 Sep 28, 1:45pm

http://en.www.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Butt_Nake

thunderlips11 says

General Butt Naked, come on. You won't lose a war with a name like that.

But I bet he throws some great parties!

General Butt Naked is about as evil as the definition of evil gets:

] Blahyi now claims he would regularly sacrifice a victim before battle, saying, "Usually it was a small child, someone whose fresh blood would satisfy the devil."[1]

He explained to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer: "Sometimes I would enter under the water where children were playing. I would dive under the water, grab one, carry him under and break his neck. Sometimes I'd cause accidents. Sometimes I'd just slaughter them."[9] In January 2008 Blahyi confessed to taking part in human sacrifices which "included the killing of an innocent child and plucking out the heart, which was divided into pieces for us to eat."[10]

Blahyi claimed to a South African Star reporter that he "met Satan regularly and talked to him" and that from age of 11 to 25 he took part in monthly human sacrifices.[11] In his account of a typical battle Blahyi claimed, "So, before leading my troops into battle, we would get drunk and drugged up, sacrifice a local teenager, drink the blood, then strip down to our shoes and go into battle wearing colorful wigs and carrying imaginary purses we'd looted from civilians. We'd slaughter anyone we saw, chop their heads off and use them as soccer balls. We were nude, fearless, drunk yet strategic. We killed hundreds of people--so many I lost count."[12]

Party on.

52

Maga_Chaos_Monkey 2014 Sep 28, 3:48pm

New Renter says

Call it Crazy says

thunderlips11 says

General Butt Naked, come on. You won't lose a war with a name like that.

But I bet he throws some great parties!

General Butt Naked is about as evil as the definition of evil gets:

He says that when he was a cannibal, he preferred meat from the back.

53 bob2356 2014 Sep 29, 2:04am

bob2356 says

There's never been an outbreak in western Africa before.

So, does that mean there won't be a large outbreak like the past outbreaks. Can you say "Normalcy Bias"?

What past outbreaks in west africa?. What large outbreak? This is the first large outbreak there has been. Look at your own chart for christ sakes

That could be just the opposite why it hasn't spread faster. These poor people lack the ability to travel around and are usually confined to their villages and small towns.

You don't travel around much do you? Poor people in in third world places like west africa travel quite a bit. Buses, mopeds (with 4-6 passengers), the ubiquitous toyota hiace van with 25 passengers and 50 chickens crammed in are everywhere in the third world. Africa and the third world isn't a bunch of mud huts. The cities are where the outbreak is and where the new cases are popping up. Being in the crowded dirty cities with very limited medical facilities is why it's spreading so fast.

In other parts of the developed world, people move and travel around a lot easier, which would allow the spread of the infection to a larger group of the population. An example is how the seasonal flu is spread in this country.

Get a grip. Morovia isn't London. Ebola isn't the frigging flu. It's not that easy to transmit. The couple cases that showed up with people traveling to lagos and nigeria are already contained with no new cases since. You caught the contained in lagos and nigeria part didn't you? If they can contain it in nigeria and lagos then new jersey shouldn't be a problem. Well maybe not.

54

Vicente 2014 Sep 29, 5:43am

What's different this time is just what I said. The countries are crowded, poor, war torn, with almost non existent medical facilites to isolate the virus victums.

Most countries do not have funerals where family is expected to embrace the corpse.

Basic hygiene and awareness of transmission methods, mean this is not a major threat to developed countries. It is still a tragedy for the areas involved, which we should take this chance to help.

55

Vicente 2014 Sep 29, 5:53am

CaptainShuddup says

Vicente says

If Sierra Leone is completely depopulated, they could move it and make it a White Conservative's Utopia. A shining beacon of Gold Dollars & Freedom.

Yep ye oh whittey he be opining fo dis

No problem. After Rand Paul is elected President, he can annex Sierra Leona and it will look like this in no time.

56

Rew 2014 Sep 29, 5:59am

bob2356 says

What's different this time is just what I said. The countries are crowded, poor, war torn, with almost non existent medical facilites to isolate the virus victums.

Most countries do not have funerals where family is expected to embrace the corpse.

Basic hygiene and awareness of transmission methods, mean this is not a major threat to developed countries. It is still a tragedy for the areas involved, which we should take this chance to help.

This combined with the distrust of the aid workers is why it is ravaging west Africa. Yep yep. You got it.

57

curious2 2014 Sep 29, 8:02am

we should take this chance to help.

You can't save people from themselves, no matter how much money you are fooled into spending on a fool's errand. We can however protect ourselves by developing a vaccine, and once we have that we might as well distribute it to eradicate the virus permanently as was done with smallpox. All else is revenue maximization, where the real beneficiaries are the revenue recipients who manipulate your desire to feel good by "helping" without really helping. Even the international hospitals over there report a 70% Ebola mortality rate, i.e. the same as or worse than if people were simply isolated at home. (Hospital patients are not usually isolated from each other, which might explain hospitals' worse mortality rate compared to home isolation, but you won't hear that from Bob the medical biller.) The principal advantage of hospitalization is that hospital workers bury the corpses without hugging them, and if you could drop the pseudo-liberal cultural "respect" for other religions then you could just tell people "bury the dead without hugging the corpses" and let Darwin do the rest. A fool and his money are soon parted, there's a sucker born every minute, and some people (ahem, OP) seem to lurch from one ideological extreme to another without objectively analyzing or even acknowledging actual data. Sarcasm doesn't help, spending money on futile gestures pretending to "help" doesn't really help, and mocking the "other" side isn't an effective substitute for analyzing data.

58 bob2356 2014 Sep 29, 10:14am

(Hospital patients are not usually isolated from each other, which might explain hospitals' worse mortality rate compared to home isolation, but you won't hear that from Bob the medical biller.)

Why don't you go fuck a mosquito or something? Leave me out of your idiotic bullshit.

Revenue maximization in west africa? What a joke. Obviously you've never traveled further than the state fair. Isolation in third world shitholes like morovia doesn't exist. That's why this has turned into an epidemic in the first place. The very few clinics and hospitals for the poor are massively overcrowded in the best of times. Hugging the corpse, even bigger joke. People in the slums live with extended family in one room tin shacks with no running water or sewage. Taking a shit means going behind the house, wiping with your hand mostly, then going back in and cooking dinner for the family. If anyone gets ebola then the entire shack gets it. As well as a big part of the surrounding area.

Hey CIC if you don't live in atlantic city or patterson (the only places in NJ I know of where people live like that) then you're safe. So relax.

59

curious2 2014 Sep 29, 11:59am

Revenue maximization in west africa?

The money doesn't come from there. The money comes from other places where people are more easily fooled into maximizing spending addressed to everywhere, and some of the resulting products and services can go there, if that result supports the prevailing existing political/economic revenue model. Otherwise, the answer is, "Don't call us, we'll call you."

Zaire/drc, Ugunda, Gabon, Sudan are over two thousand miles away (at least) from Guiana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

At last, we agree on something: Guiana, being in South America, is definitely more than 2k miles from Africa. I don't know where "Ugunda" might be, but since you can't even spell "areas" I won't expect lessons in geography from you. If you do follow through on your plan to go to Uganda, or now maybe "Ugunda," I hope you'll at least leave the kids safely at home so they can have their own futures instead of sliding sideways at 80mph+ while you try to pick fights with tire manufacturers.

Obviously you've never traveled further than the state fair.

Well, I haven't had to flee as many medical malpractice victims (and their families) as you and Dr. Mrs. Bob, but I have traveled much of the world including Africa. Your misplaced anger that you can't drive your Mustang because Dr. Mrs. Bob's malpractice became uninsurable in the USA is not my fault, nor is your toxoplasmotic need to troll for fights all over the World Wide Web. Get help for the toxoplasmosis, and let someone else do the driving before you cause injury to yourself and everyone else on the road.

60 bob2356 2014 Sep 29, 1:54pm

At last, we agree on something: Guiana, being in South America, is definitely more than 2k miles from Africa. I don't know where "Ugunda" might be, but since you can't even spell "areas" I won't expect lessons in geography from you. If you do follow through on your plan to go to Uganda

Guinea,Uganda. Does the typo nanny feel better now? Since I smashed my left hand I make a lot of typos. I don't always bother to correct them.

I've always wondered how it feels to be a total douchebag. Since you are the worlds foremost expert could you describe the experience?

I have traveled much of the world including Africa.

Sure right. Nice to be on the internet where you can pretend to be anyone you want. Your parents say it's time to get hot chocolate and got to bed now. Your homeroom teacher wants you to have a good nights sleep.

61

curious2 2014 Sep 29, 2:26pm

The bottom line remains, we should develop a vaccine to eradicate the virus instead of turning it into a chronic revenue model.

Below the bottom line, buried like old cat litter, is yet another troll comment from medical biller Bob that I should have ignored but will reply to.

Does the typo nanny feel better now? Since I smashed my left hand I make a lot of typos.

There is no way a left hand injury could put an apostrophe (right side of keyboard) into "areas" almost every time you type it, so your latest comment shows your self-delusion and provides yet another example of your toxoplasmotic need to pick losing fights like a toxoplasmotic mouse searching for cats. All those injuries should be telling you something: get help for the chronic behavioral consequences of toxoplasmosis, which persist long after infection. The life you save may be your own, or someone you care about.

62

Vicente 2014 Sep 29, 5:06pm

"Newsweek: The U.S. Is Sitting on Promising Ebola Vaccines
***
Today, several vaccines and drugs are on the edge of becoming usefulâ€”they have shown promise in animal studies, and some are so far along that human clinical trials could probably have begun at any time in the past several years, Feldmann says. One promising vaccine he helped develop was shown in lab tests to fully protect rhesus macaques against contracting Ebola-Zaire, the strain now tearing through Central and West Africa. It even worked as a treatmentâ€”it saved four out of eight animals infected with the virus. For an infection that can sometimes reach a kill rate in humans of around 90 percent, those are excellent results.

The bottom line remains, we should develop a vaccine to eradicate the virus instead of turning it into a chronic revenue model.

The cost of developing new vaccines, starts at hundreds of millions of dollars. Previously it's been thought the costs of containment and treating specific outbreaks was cheaper than a vaccine. There are tons of diseases, where there are too few sufferers to rate much real research. Ebola up until now was one of those.

It's only a priority now, because people are baselessly shit-scared it might run wild in New Jersey or something. Thus the skinflints who don't believe in foreign aid suddenly open the purse. You want $600 million? A billion? For a disease with victims so far well below 10,000 cases since 1970's? Well OK!

63

curious2 2014 Sep 29, 6:03pm

â€œWhat is frustrating is that we have another outbreak where potentially none of these treatment options are being used,â€ Feldmann says. â€œThe thinking has to change now. We canâ€™t just wait and wait and wait. Some of these vaccines have been stuck in this position for 10 years.â€

That article and others report DoD has been funding some Ebola research efforts for years, based on its potential for use in bioterror and biological warfare. Unfortunately, certain people insist on selling traditional maintenance rather than making real progress towards actual solutions.

64

deepcgi 2014 Sep 29, 9:04pm

The real crime and horror here has been in watching the president ignore the problem until his eyes were bleeding. Don't think for a minute that you can put a positive spin on this one. Ebola is the devil's masterpiece and we waited until the paint was dry. eab

65

JodyChunder 2014 Sep 29, 10:38pm

http://www.click2houston.com/news/dallas-hospital-isolates-patient-for-possible-ebola-symptoms/28325978

66 bob2356 2014 Sep 29, 11:19pm

There is no way a left hand injury could put an apostrophe (right side of keyboard) into "areas" every time you type it, so your latest comment shows your self-delusion

areas isn't spelled area's anywhere in this post by me or anyone else. I may have done it somewhere else at some time. I can make a typo with either hand but most are left.

You are are really a creepy and deranged individual. Calculating which hand my non existent typo was on is really disturbing stuff. I can certainly see why you would be afraid of mental health professionals. You don't want to lose you imaginary (and only) friends if you got treated. Anyone with the desire and enough time on their hands to be stalking around looking at old posts for a possible typo is what (in the non PC days) we used call just plain old nuts. I'm starting to wonder if I should be using a proxy server for patnet with you around. Hopefully you are just obsessive and deranged, not dangerous.

67

Vicente 2014 Sep 30, 4:42am

Sure... There's no way it's coming to the U.S. There's an ocean between us and Africa. How would the virus even get here, swim??

Oh we've had cases come across, it may have escaped your notice we brought some here for treatment. Where's the epidemic? Keep cowering under your bed.

68

Tenpoundbass 2014 Sep 30, 5:20am

Ever notice the more politicians needs a distraction, then the bigger the Asian, or African epidemic.

69

Tenpoundbass 2014 Sep 30, 8:38am

CDC Confirms Patient In Dallas Has The Ebola Virus

THis is the first time an Ameircan President was so incompetent that he just sat on his stuipid black ass and just waited for ebola to make it to the states.

I mean we do have those FEMA camps just sitting vacant, and bunch of horny gun nuts in POlice departments all over the country with assault weapons and battle tanks. They would love nothing more than to have an excuse to round up everyone with a cough and send their whole family and everyone they ever came in contact with and lock them up in a FEMA camp.

"Woody you did a heckuva job!"

70

Vicente 2014 Sep 30, 8:54am