patrick.net

E-man says

I believe we're approaching the last phase of the cycle

The cycle is old yes and inventory to sales and good metric for that.

However, recessions happen when we have a supply and demand imbalance, a major over investment thesis that creates that type of economic enviroment where demand can't keep pace

Tech and Housing clear and simple cases in the last 2 cycles

It this cycle, not so much

E-man says

but what about the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018?

I am trained not to really go over 3 months on data mining the #NoRecession2016 push my was in response to people who thought 100% that recessions happen in a 7 year time lot with out any real data reads, hence why a lot of my articles this year was to really mock them

Peter Schiffs, Harry Dents, Tom Harmen, MMT and a host of others

I wanted to show the American people that these people are just frauds story tellers, it's been a horrible 8 years for the The 2nd Great Recession Bears.

You should follow me on my facebook pages over 10,000 people there and just let them have it

Most are Gold Bugs, its been funny to watch the last 12 months and some of Harry Dent People

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami

justme says

Are you grasping this, Logan? There cannot be an intelligent discussion of any topic unless you introduce the topi

This wasn't a topic headline like I usually to with an article , this was a bait ;-)

Logan Mohtashami says

When Claims get to 323K

When LEI falls 4-6 months

I think that's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.

E-man says

Let me ask you this: what do you think will be the catalyst for the next recession?

Oil ran it off this cycle and it did nothing

So now, watch commercial real estate + Rising short term rates and we get a over supply in cars and housing. It could be 2019-2022 even as labor force growth is starting to pick up.

I am posting a article today that goes into that Demographic thesis with housing starts

tatupu70 says

That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.

You Forget Fed Fighting inflation

tatupu70 says

I think that's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.

Also, not a lot people know this stuff, because they don't track data for a living but also the key

Find the over investment thesis in each cycle and they give it a multiplier impact

This is why the recession bears of 2015 and 2016 ... a lot economic professionals blew it because they read the PMI data wrong

Dollar that drove oil down not Demand

I am not kidding when I say I data mine everything, at least 10-20 new economic data charts daily based on all economic data that comes out. Because I work in housing, that is my area.

For example the oil bears said America was going into a recession due to the oil collapse and yet Texas has held up because this isn't the the Texas of the 1980's

What is a interesting thesis, something that I am working on, but don't have enough work done on this done yet.

Super Economic Cycle in America right now

March of 2009 was the start of the expansion and can this cycle break to all time highs in terms of duration

This is my case for the 11 year plus expansion .. Nothing final yet

- Demographic never patch to a Demographic strong patch late in the cycle, this really hasn't happened in recent modern day economics

- No inflation for the Fed to fight, this is key and I went into this in Fed Article recently

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/15/fed-rate-hikes-need-more-inflation/

- We are in the lower band of productivity growth and this could get better in a late cycle period

Tons of other data points there

However, I am been working on this the last year to see if this can carry over, Super Nerdy I know, but I love this stuff ;-)

So you are a disciple of Harry Dent?

No comment on Ironman's comment?

Ironman says

The problem is, you pick and choose what data you want to fit your narrative or tweak what you present to fit your narrative

Most of the data are simply economic data report charted.

Also, Have I been wrong on the U.S. economic story? When everyone was calling for recession in 2009 -2016.. Stayed the course in my 2% economy and if you at my job creation number per each year they have been more right than anyone

Plus on record with a 2015 and 2016 10 year call of 1.60% lower band when everyone for years was calling for 3% GDP and 4% 10 year

indigenous says

So you are a disciple of Harry Dent?

He has circus talked the Demographic story

He is calling for 40%-67% declines in home price and if you look at his chart work it's really funny, he actually has a key level of 2006 dow theory and this is why he always has Dow 6,000 has to breaking point to go lower

That's not how it works

He has had the worst economic cycle I have ever seen 5 Great Recession 2 calls in 8 years

Jim Rodgers mr. Commodity boom has joined the mix and all he said

We have to have a recession we have one every 5-7 years

WTF

These people aren't economist they're $$$ story tellers

If that were true why doesn't the farmer go back to the farms?

tatupu70 says

And you see no problem with that chart? Really?

I was thinking the exact same thing.

in a few minutes I am going to post a demographic housing article you can at least see why I believe in a few years housing = economic output will look a lot better than this cycle in terms of economic growth.. but also showing respect that we have built a lot homes in the last 5 decades

Obviously Bill McBride ( Calculated Risk) and I are the big American Economic Bulls

Be mindful, come the next decade both the left and right are going to be massively wrong about America so we want to show you now why

#FutureIsBright so much, I have to wear shades

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/12/the-futures-so-bright.html

Which begs the question, why did they stay in the city?

Logan... you're a legend in your own lunchtime.

"In 1979, using this criterion, the average middle class household brought in $61,542 annually. By 2011, the last year of EPI's study, middle-class household income had only increased to $72,036, or just 17% overall. By comparison, the annual household income of the top 1% of American households rose by almost 150% over that same timespan to more than $1.5 million. The EPI estimates that if middle-class household incomes had kept pace with the top 1% between 1979 and 2011, they would have had an average annual income of $156,318 in 2011."

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/22/4-glaring-statistics-that-define-todays-middle-cla.aspx

There's no problem here! 'Merika is the best! U. S. A. U. S. A.!!!!!!!!!!!!

junkmail says

There's no problem here! 'Merika is the best! U. S. A. U. S. A.!!!!!!!!!!!!

junkmail says

Logan... you're a legend in your own lunchtime.

2015 Dollars college Grads make 48K-54K adjust it to inflammation grow on wages it makes you entire thesis go to hell

How is possible that people are buying homes, cars when everyone is supposed to be a high school drop out equivalent earnings power

Wait.. I forget

Real Median Household Income is a function of a) Real Median Weekly Earnings and b) the Participation Rate

Please I beg you Anti American cry babies

Keep on talking your non sense when post recession recovery happens and there is no Deflationary massive down turn then everyone will know

Why you guys hide behind those fakes names ...

Utter non sense what you're saying

Americans aren't high school drop outs with drug problems, that group needs massive federal intervention but quit putting all of us in that group

Rookies ....no different than Gold Bugs

Either the world is going to end due to inflation or deflation

Please I am keeping this thread for the next cycle and personally going to write an article add this group to the new normal thesis group that has already loss due to birth rates going positive

Keep On talking

That's the whole point of this thread ..... Live it up! #Timestamp

Hysterical nonsense about the best domestic economy in the world ....

By all means.... cry away

Tell me again how Horrible the American Economy is .. Please don't let me stop you!

I know

It's called ZeroHedge Join your polar opposites on this site and join the comment section on how bad America is and how good the Russian economy looks like

http://www.zerohedge.com/

Household income is a known canard as the divorce rate in the 70s had more to do with the household income than anything else. The corollary would also be true as many well to do households have more than one income per household.

This:

One major conclusion of their research is that the family income of children whose parents divorce and remain divorced for at least six years falls by 40 to 45 percent. Food consumption is also reduced by 17 percent. Families respond to the absence of a second parent in a variety of ways that help mitigate some of the costs, the authors note. In the case of children born to single parents who subsequently marry and remain married for at least six years, post-tax family income increases 50 percent and pre-tax income rises 57 percent. But there is no related increase in food consumption. This suggests that children's access to essentials, such as food, may be somewhat better protected than is assumed by focusing on income changes alone.

These different types of measures can be helpful for policymakers considering the skyrocketing number of single-parent families in the United States in the past 50 years. Between 1960 and 1995, the number of children living apart from one of their parents increased from 12 percent to almost 40 percent, the rate of divorce increased by more than 200 percent, and the fraction of children born out of wedlock rose from about 5 percent to more than 30 percent. Half of all American children today are expected to spend part of their childhood in a family headed by a mother who is divorced, separated, unwed, or widowed.

From this:

http://www.nber.org/digest/jul02/w8786.html

How dare anyone suggest there is anything wrong in the best country in the world!!??!!

Heresy!

Pinkos!

Cry babies!

Just wait until the poor 20 year olds become poor 25 year olds! 5% GDP growth here we come.

Logan - did you have a triple shot of espresso this morning?

tatupu70 says

How dare anyone suggest there is anything wrong in the best country in the world!!??!!

Let's see how many times do I have repeat this... So I will do it one more time #timestamp

Focus on this group

- High School Drop outs
- Non college educated Americans
- Non Trade Show Skill Americans
- Drug Users
- Criminal Active
- Those with a criminal record outside of jail

This group needs massive amounts of federal intervention because they're doing horrible and they need emergency help

The rest don't need much compared to the group as a the wealthiest country in the world with the biggest economy, biggest military, 100 Trillion dollars plus of wealth, 154 Million working people..

We can afford to give this group above more attention that the middle class. Our middle class is fine.

You can't help the poor if everyone is poor outside the 1%

I would also include animals being a big animal person here. :-)

tatupu70 says

5% GDP growth here we come.

Very difficult for any mature country to have 5% GDP in a consistent fashion maybe for a short term Jolt with massive stimulus but that can't last forever.

On a different note I so agreed with Krugman on his critiques of Freedman plan on Sanders 5% GDP economic growth

A nice quiet war in Liberal land between economic mind set... MMT hates Paul Krugman, you should hear the things they say about Clinton's Krugman, Obama now

Fun to watch them squabble on the net

donny says

Logan - did you have a triple shot of espresso this morning?

I don't eat sugar during the week but on the Weekend it's Carb Party so yes I had a donut which amounts to 100 X velocity of espresso

Logan Mohtashami says

I don't eat sugar during the week but on the Weekend it's Carb Party so yes I had a donuts which amounts to 100 X velocity of espresso

I'm in a similar situation. On the weekends, I get my old fashioned glazed donut with a vanilla latte from Coffee Bean. Culinary orgasm.

Logan Mohtashami says

We can afford to give this group above more attention that the middle class. Our middle class is fine.

You mean except for the face that they are fading away to oblivion? Pretty soon they will be an endangered species.

donny says

glazed donut

What I had today, they're so bad for you but it is so good!

I have been training for a year now, so the weekends are fun for me and the weekdays are a piece of cake now

Here is one idea

Federal funded programs to boost productive training in jails. Then post Jail, Federal funding program to train or make sure post Jail people can work.

No Man Or Women Left Behind thesis.

This is where a MMT thesis can be useful.

Tons of ideas but something in that nature to help people who need help. A big supporter of Families Forward as well. Stuff like that done on a massive level from the Federal side of the equation not the state.

Yes because clearly only felons are having a hard time in this economy.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/25/1-in-2-working-americans-make-less-than-30000-a-year

/

Notice the ratio getting smaller and smaller? That's inequality again.

Ironman says

Do you ever stop spewing your twisted narratives???

China isn't a mature country and just got into the WTO in 2000 with over 1 billion people