patrick.net

Guess where I just was.

I did a facebook Live at Bernie's Rally here in Irvine

Nice signs

Venezuelans starve because of socialism??

The guys who wrote these signs are imbeciles.

tatupu70 says

Notice the ratio getting smaller and smaller? That's inequality again.

With more people coming into labor force the ratio will get uglier as these people will compete with each other to lower wages. How is that for a demographic theory Logan?

FP says

Venezuelans starve because of socialism??

You BetFP says

The guys who wrote these signs are imbeciles.

Hard to say but certainly accurate sentiment on the sign.

Socialism/communism certainly gets people killed

tr6 says

How is that for a demographic theory Logan?

If that was a real theory you would see wage declines but wages have moved with inflation

What you're thinking off is the growing base on low level service jobs

Logan Mohtashami says

What you're thinking off is the growing base on low level service jobs

I can assure you that outside of tech bubble in bay area, there is a serious downward pressure in IT wages driven by Infosys and Congnizants of the world.

tr6 says

I can assure you that outside of tech bubble in bay area, there is a serious downward pressure in IT wages driven by Infosys and Congnizants of the world.

College Grad Median Base Pay 2015 is 48K-54K

Focus on the poor only, don't worry about the smart people buying homes and cars..

Logan Mohtashami says

College Grad Median Base Pay 2015 is 48K-54K

Do you have any data for mid career numbers?

tr6 says

Do you have any data for mid career numbers?

Asking when the peak earnings power is, basically peak earning is age

Logan Mohtashami says

Asking when the peak earnings power is, basically peak earning is age

No. I am asking how mid career earnings are doing. That's where I would guess the highest real declines are.

tr6 says

highest real declines are.

There is no real decline, except for Older people leaving the work force and then collecting S.S., it's this why employment to population and wages run hand in hand

Why in 2016 wages are at all time highs, the data runs of the government lag so you need real time data adjusted to population

If someone worked a higher pay job then got fired and worked for less, then that person has had a decline

For some sectors ... mostly at the bottom, you have no wage increased to inflation or Cost of living.

Min wage roughly 25%-30% of country gets paid in that $7.25 -$15 dollar level

That is where lack of wage growth comes in

This is why I always found it silly that people are worried about college educated Americans, who are buying cars, buying homes and creating household formation for growth.

Any focus needs to be from high school drop outs, non college educated Americans and those who don't have any trade show skill.

It's a lot harder to do that at the bottom.

Work from the bottom up, don't even worry about the middle up theory.

Wage inflation from the bottom, tier level grows higher. It will never been contract wage growth but it's a start.

indigenous says

Hard to say but certainly accurate sentiment on the sign.

Welcome to my ignore list of patent imbeciles.

Logan Mohtashami says

Most are Gold Bugs, its been funny to watch the last 12 months and some of Harry Dent People

Harry Dent is NOT a gold bug- he has been calling for $600 gold for the past three years

smaulgld says

Harry Dent is NOT a gold bug-

You're very correct.

Dent is a demographic Drama Queen but a strong dollar Gold Breaking 1060 and heading down to 680 Guy.

Look back at this cycle, read the thesis of the 2nd Great Recession Bear group.

Terrible, just god awful stuff.

However, for promotional purposes they do it.

That's part of the business, yellow journalism sells, It's the

Zero Hedge, Cry baby nation, I am sissy help me lord, let me vent .... Ya Ya Ya model...

It's a great business model, it spawned Trolls people hiding behind fake names so they can say what ever they like

I don't blame them for the yellow journalism thesis, not a lot of work and get some click bait material up and send it off.

That's why I wrote that U.S. economy is about to crash article and Bill Mcbride and myself joked on how popular it was going to be

Because people love to cry, love to complain, love death and destruction, they love reality shows..

They hate math, facts and data...

Too boring,

Name calling and ranting is so much more fun for people.

Do you see anything ironic about posting this:

Logan Mohtashami says

Name calling and ranting is so much more fun for people.

in the same post as this:

Logan Mohtashami says

Cry baby nation, I am sissy help me lord

You are amusing that you pretend that you are the only one who uses math, facts, and data. And that you are above the name calling and trolling.

I hate to break it to you, but everyone sees you for what you are....

tatupu70 says

You are amusing that you pretend that you are the only one who uses math, facts, and data

If you believe we are about to have 1929 Depression or Americans are serfs

Cry Baby Drama Queen

I have already saved all the posting here and the other thread so when post recession recovery happens in the next cycle we can show why the extreme left and right have no idea what the hell they're talking about

I just need people to talk .... that's it... the rest is time...

If you haven't noticed my theme is making sure all the Great American Recession Bear II people are called out on their Fraud economic theories and just setting it up for the next cycle

#timestamp

This is where discipline comes in... people who are ideological agenda driven don't care about discipline they care only about message and in that message they go

Drama Queen Sissy Cry Baby Out of Context ....

It's only a few extreme people most people are normal .... that's what I like to point out

It would shock me if for some reason demagoguery stops

As always if you're not one these epic American doom people

Then I am not speaking to any of you.. and in real life none of you people are... just pretend to be for the sake of debate

Here is 4 minutes of Bernie's Speech from yesterday

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10153794234553250/?type=3&theater

Logan Mohtashami says

I have already saved all the posting here and the other thread so when post recession recovery happens in the next cycle we can show why the extreme left and right have no idea what the hell they're talking about

And I've done the same. I'm guessing they won't be taking your calls on CNBC at that point...

Logan Mohtashami says

If you haven't noticed my theme is making sure all the Great American Recession Bear II people are called out on their Fraud economic theories and just setting it up for the next cycle

If you say so--to me it looks more like your theme is to BS and then try to impress people with badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.

Logan Mohtashami says

people who are ideological agenda driven don't care about discipline they care only about message and in that message they go

You have it backwards there. I pick my ideology based on my economic knowledge. Once I figure out the problem and solution, I find the people who agree with me and will advance the same fight.

Logan Mohtashami says

Drama Queen Sissy Cry Baby Out of Context ....

Out of context? In what context were they used that wasn't calling other posters names?

Logan Mohtashami says

As always if you're not one these epic American doom people

Then I am not speaking to any of you.. and in real life none of you people are... just pretend to be for the sake of debate

I'm not an epic American doom person on this thread either. Only in your strawman of me.

tatupu70 says

If you say so--to me it looks more like your theme is to BS and then try to impress people with badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.

Logan is a wanna be investment banker.

tatupu70 says

I'm not an epic American doom person on this thread either.

Logan assumes that if your are not a super bull that believes in trickle down economcis, you are doom.

Logan's idea of economics is like going to a strip club with a no-touch policy. Lot's of flash, but you can't get any real business done.

Team Logan 4. Team DS 0 The days of this pizza fight betwee the right and left going unchecked is done .... There will be order, math, facts and data from a bin ideogiocal person. I suggest you all deal with it

Logan Mohtashami says

Team Logan 4. Team DS 0

Doesn't the fact that there are 0 people on the Team DS side make you pause and consider that perhaps you are fighting an imaginary battle against no one?

I'm going to start a thread called Team Tatupu against Team Poop on a stick where I maintain that filet mignon tastes better than poop on a stick. And I'll consider it vindication if more people prefer filet mignon. Of course I'm preserving all your posts about food as proof of your beliefs too...

Tell me Team Logan. How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing, all production of physical products shipped overseas, and leveraging to a level unprecedented in history?

I'm not sure you even know what a serf is. They didn't own any land(see property taxes, mortgages), had to give up a portion of their earnings to the owner of the land they worked, or noble who offered them protection(see state/federal taxes, armed forces), and had no voice in who ruled over them(see presidential elections in a "two party" system).

If you want to keep status quo, you are actually advocating for serfdom.

After buying my house 3 years ago, and watching the upswing in the economy and housing for 4+ years, I'm back toward bear. I'll probably convert a good chunk of investment to cash soon. My view also colored by current work I'm doing. YMMV. If we were to list it, our current house price is beyond dumb. My stocks have been up, up, up to nose bleed levels. Looks like it's time to take, while the taking is good.

SOOOoooo ... I guess I'm team "Depression Serf" until wealth inequality equation is smoothed out more, or general profit taking and downward trends occur to sufficient degree to provide room for an upward cycle to start again. An economy based on a lopsided heavy slant toward Entertainment and FIRE won't float for forever. That's what I see America riding on right now. Tech is a maturing market as well and likely not to continue growth explosions for us. See Caterpillar (CAT) for a great American company, which I think is telegraphing things to come (heavy machinery = building demand = leading indicator).

Yes, ra-ra-ra America, but more now then ever before, we are not in economic isolation. Our economic health is tied very strongly to the world economy. I think most Americans are probably in for flat/grey times ahead at the very least.

I don't see many reasons to be hopeful that any major systemic issues are addressed, or pitfalls avoided, in the relative short term. So if we are holding flat, and a bump in the road comes ... that spells down to me. I'll put a time frame of next 4 years around that. If that's being a "perma-bear", well, ok. If my window is too big or too imprecise for you, I kind of don't care. That window is big enough for me to act on smart things right now. It may mean I mis 10% gain cause right now is "bear trap" territory, but I'll gladly mis out on 10%, to save 20-30% loss.

Summation:
- Good run-up seen in past 4 years (house,stocks)
- World economy remains shaky
- US economy appears to have some big imbalances (my faith in the current ability of the American consumer is also low)
- US political scene a total mess

Macro economic trends are based on much more than what is captured in a single graph. At this point I'm likely, maybe irrationally so, more swayed by things that aren't purely market/economic based. I want to see Europe on better ground. I want to see America with less adversarial positions in the international arena. I want to see a US leader that inspires, and unifies, at the helm. That's easily 4+ years away.

NuttBoxer says

Tell me Team Logan. How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing

The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.

Hey Logan, what's the score. Rew just defected.

Nobody ever went broke selling too early. - Baruch.

Strategist says

Hey Logan, what's the score

So far no one has made any kind of thesis that Americans are serfs or heading to be serfs or that the 1929 vs 2016 thesis that $$$ being held to high at the top is going to bring down American consumption down do bad that we are going to have a deflationary spiral

Shocking!

tr6 says

Logan assumes that if your are not a super bull that believes in trickle down economcis, you are doom.

Actually no, I just don't believe the Americans that consume are high school drop outs that have a substance abuse, which is the key core thesis for anyone who believes America is heading to Serf Villa Nation

This is usually a tactic done by the left to try to make it seem that life is so bad ...

Where the right spread their hyperinflation dollar collapse non sense

tr6 says

Logan is a wanna be investment banker.

Actually a top 1% on LinkedIn, but don't have any investment banker profile on there

You're all welcome to see

https://www.linkedin.com/in/logan-mohtashami-5167631?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Hey Logan, what's the score

So far no one has made any kind of thesis that Americans are serfs or heading to be serfs or that the 1929 vs 2016 thesis that $$$ being held to high at the top is going to bring down American consumption down do bad that we are going to have a deflationary spiral

Shocking!

Those are life time pessimists. Count them as Serfs.

Strategist says

Those are life time pessimists. Count them as Serfs.

1790-2016 Serf thesis ... we need the triangle Pizza Fight to go

Left vs Right and then everyone else

I am really hope I get everyone here to go against my thesis , so far I go the usual suspect from the extreme of both sides but some people are being clever and not talking

Maybe those demographics charts are working, if I can make some MMT people think about demographic economics then I can get the hard left and right to think about it even if they don't want to admit it

tatupu70 says

Only in your strawman of me.

So, this means you're not in Serf thesis then correct? and can I take you away from a 1929 deflationary spiral thesis as well?

Awesome

Welcome to Team Logan!!

Rew says

(my faith in the current ability of the American consumer is also low)

Even with the world slowdown since 2011 .. nada .. nothing, trend has kept pace, even in a light demographic patch