patrick.net

Jim Rodgers mr. Commodity boom has joined the mix and all he said

We have to have a recession we have one every 5-7 years

WTF

These people aren't economist they're $$$ story tellers

If that were true why doesn't the farmer go back to the farms?

tatupu70 says

And you see no problem with that chart? Really?

I was thinking the exact same thing.

in a few minutes I am going to post a demographic housing article you can at least see why I believe in a few years housing = economic output will look a lot better than this cycle in terms of economic growth.. but also showing respect that we have built a lot homes in the last 5 decades

Obviously Bill McBride ( Calculated Risk) and I are the big American Economic Bulls

Be mindful, come the next decade both the left and right are going to be massively wrong about America so we want to show you now why

#FutureIsBright so much, I have to wear shades

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/12/the-futures-so-bright.html

Which begs the question, why did they stay in the city?

Logan... you're a legend in your own lunchtime.

"In 1979, using this criterion, the average middle class household brought in $61,542 annually. By 2011, the last year of EPI's study, middle-class household income had only increased to $72,036, or just 17% overall. By comparison, the annual household income of the top 1% of American households rose by almost 150% over that same timespan to more than $1.5 million. The EPI estimates that if middle-class household incomes had kept pace with the top 1% between 1979 and 2011, they would have had an average annual income of $156,318 in 2011."

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/22/4-glaring-statistics-that-define-todays-middle-cla.aspx

There's no problem here! 'Merika is the best! U. S. A. U. S. A.!!!!!!!!!!!!

junkmail says

There's no problem here! 'Merika is the best! U. S. A. U. S. A.!!!!!!!!!!!!

junkmail says

Logan... you're a legend in your own lunchtime.

2015 Dollars college Grads make 48K-54K adjust it to inflammation grow on wages it makes you entire thesis go to hell

How is possible that people are buying homes, cars when everyone is supposed to be a high school drop out equivalent earnings power

Wait.. I forget

Real Median Household Income is a function of a) Real Median Weekly Earnings and b) the Participation Rate

Please I beg you Anti American cry babies

Keep on talking your non sense when post recession recovery happens and there is no Deflationary massive down turn then everyone will know

Why you guys hide behind those fakes names ...

Utter non sense what you're saying

Americans aren't high school drop outs with drug problems, that group needs massive federal intervention but quit putting all of us in that group

Rookies ....no different than Gold Bugs

Either the world is going to end due to inflation or deflation

Please I am keeping this thread for the next cycle and personally going to write an article add this group to the new normal thesis group that has already loss due to birth rates going positive

Keep On talking

That's the whole point of this thread ..... Live it up! #Timestamp

Hysterical nonsense about the best domestic economy in the world ....

By all means.... cry away

Tell me again how Horrible the American Economy is .. Please don't let me stop you!

I know

It's called ZeroHedge Join your polar opposites on this site and join the comment section on how bad America is and how good the Russian economy looks like

http://www.zerohedge.com/

Household income is a known canard as the divorce rate in the 70s had more to do with the household income than anything else. The corollary would also be true as many well to do households have more than one income per household.

This:

One major conclusion of their research is that the family income of children whose parents divorce and remain divorced for at least six years falls by 40 to 45 percent. Food consumption is also reduced by 17 percent. Families respond to the absence of a second parent in a variety of ways that help mitigate some of the costs, the authors note. In the case of children born to single parents who subsequently marry and remain married for at least six years, post-tax family income increases 50 percent and pre-tax income rises 57 percent. But there is no related increase in food consumption. This suggests that children's access to essentials, such as food, may be somewhat better protected than is assumed by focusing on income changes alone.

These different types of measures can be helpful for policymakers considering the skyrocketing number of single-parent families in the United States in the past 50 years. Between 1960 and 1995, the number of children living apart from one of their parents increased from 12 percent to almost 40 percent, the rate of divorce increased by more than 200 percent, and the fraction of children born out of wedlock rose from about 5 percent to more than 30 percent. Half of all American children today are expected to spend part of their childhood in a family headed by a mother who is divorced, separated, unwed, or widowed.

From this:

http://www.nber.org/digest/jul02/w8786.html

How dare anyone suggest there is anything wrong in the best country in the world!!??!!

Heresy!

Pinkos!

Cry babies!

Just wait until the poor 20 year olds become poor 25 year olds! 5% GDP growth here we come.

Logan - did you have a triple shot of espresso this morning?

tatupu70 says

How dare anyone suggest there is anything wrong in the best country in the world!!??!!

Let's see how many times do I have repeat this... So I will do it one more time #timestamp

Focus on this group

- High School Drop outs
- Non college educated Americans
- Non Trade Show Skill Americans
- Drug Users
- Criminal Active
- Those with a criminal record outside of jail

This group needs massive amounts of federal intervention because they're doing horrible and they need emergency help

The rest don't need much compared to the group as a the wealthiest country in the world with the biggest economy, biggest military, 100 Trillion dollars plus of wealth, 154 Million working people..

We can afford to give this group above more attention that the middle class. Our middle class is fine.

You can't help the poor if everyone is poor outside the 1%

I would also include animals being a big animal person here. :-)

tatupu70 says

5% GDP growth here we come.

Very difficult for any mature country to have 5% GDP in a consistent fashion maybe for a short term Jolt with massive stimulus but that can't last forever.

On a different note I so agreed with Krugman on his critiques of Freedman plan on Sanders 5% GDP economic growth

A nice quiet war in Liberal land between economic mind set... MMT hates Paul Krugman, you should hear the things they say about Clinton's Krugman, Obama now

Fun to watch them squabble on the net

donny says

Logan - did you have a triple shot of espresso this morning?

I don't eat sugar during the week but on the Weekend it's Carb Party so yes I had a donut which amounts to 100 X velocity of espresso

Logan Mohtashami says

I don't eat sugar during the week but on the Weekend it's Carb Party so yes I had a donuts which amounts to 100 X velocity of espresso

I'm in a similar situation. On the weekends, I get my old fashioned glazed donut with a vanilla latte from Coffee Bean. Culinary orgasm.

Logan Mohtashami says

We can afford to give this group above more attention that the middle class. Our middle class is fine.

You mean except for the face that they are fading away to oblivion? Pretty soon they will be an endangered species.

donny says

glazed donut

What I had today, they're so bad for you but it is so good!

I have been training for a year now, so the weekends are fun for me and the weekdays are a piece of cake now

Here is one idea

Federal funded programs to boost productive training in jails. Then post Jail, Federal funding program to train or make sure post Jail people can work.

No Man Or Women Left Behind thesis.

This is where a MMT thesis can be useful.

Tons of ideas but something in that nature to help people who need help. A big supporter of Families Forward as well. Stuff like that done on a massive level from the Federal side of the equation not the state.

Yes because clearly only felons are having a hard time in this economy.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/25/1-in-2-working-americans-make-less-than-30000-a-year

/

Notice the ratio getting smaller and smaller? That's inequality again.

Ironman says

Do you ever stop spewing your twisted narratives???

China isn't a mature country and just got into the WTO in 2000 with over 1 billion people

Guess where I just was.

I did a facebook Live at Bernie's Rally here in Irvine

Nice signs

Venezuelans starve because of socialism??

The guys who wrote these signs are imbeciles.

tatupu70 says

Notice the ratio getting smaller and smaller? That's inequality again.

With more people coming into labor force the ratio will get uglier as these people will compete with each other to lower wages. How is that for a demographic theory Logan?

FP says

Venezuelans starve because of socialism??

You BetFP says

The guys who wrote these signs are imbeciles.

Hard to say but certainly accurate sentiment on the sign.

Socialism/communism certainly gets people killed

tr6 says

How is that for a demographic theory Logan?

If that was a real theory you would see wage declines but wages have moved with inflation

What you're thinking off is the growing base on low level service jobs

Logan Mohtashami says

What you're thinking off is the growing base on low level service jobs

I can assure you that outside of tech bubble in bay area, there is a serious downward pressure in IT wages driven by Infosys and Congnizants of the world.

tr6 says

I can assure you that outside of tech bubble in bay area, there is a serious downward pressure in IT wages driven by Infosys and Congnizants of the world.

College Grad Median Base Pay 2015 is 48K-54K

Focus on the poor only, don't worry about the smart people buying homes and cars..

Logan Mohtashami says

College Grad Median Base Pay 2015 is 48K-54K

Do you have any data for mid career numbers?

tr6 says

Do you have any data for mid career numbers?

Asking when the peak earnings power is, basically peak earning is age

Logan Mohtashami says

Asking when the peak earnings power is, basically peak earning is age

No. I am asking how mid career earnings are doing. That's where I would guess the highest real declines are.

tr6 says

highest real declines are.

There is no real decline, except for Older people leaving the work force and then collecting S.S., it's this why employment to population and wages run hand in hand

Why in 2016 wages are at all time highs, the data runs of the government lag so you need real time data adjusted to population

If someone worked a higher pay job then got fired and worked for less, then that person has had a decline

For some sectors ... mostly at the bottom, you have no wage increased to inflation or Cost of living.

Min wage roughly 25%-30% of country gets paid in that $7.25 -$15 dollar level

That is where lack of wage growth comes in

This is why I always found it silly that people are worried about college educated Americans, who are buying cars, buying homes and creating household formation for growth.

Any focus needs to be from high school drop outs, non college educated Americans and those who don't have any trade show skill.

It's a lot harder to do that at the bottom.

Work from the bottom up, don't even worry about the middle up theory.

Wage inflation from the bottom, tier level grows higher. It will never been contract wage growth but it's a start.