patrick.net

Listened to the Bears and got my ass handed to me in 2009 through 2012. Fuck them. Got back on saddle and having a field day. Gold bugs and bears have one thing in common. Prosperity scares them. It always is a BUBBLE for them.

HadEnough says

Listened to the Bears and got my ass handed to me in 2009 through 2012. Fuck them. Got back on saddle and having a field day. Gold bugs and bears have one thing in common. Prosperity scares them. It always is a BUBBLE for them.

Ahh just by that sentence structure I know who this is ...

Logan Mohtashami says

Complete 2 different times for wealth and Inequity due to massive shift in demographic, it's no where close to the same, not even in the same universe

What does the demographics have to do with wealth inequality? What about the demographics is different and why does it allow the economy to function well at extreme inequality levels? Here's your chance to change my mind.

I wasn't a bear in 2009. I was one of the few arguing that the worst was over and the economy would be growing.

I'm not even a bear now really. I just see the structural problems and want them fixed.

I'm the one arguing against all the idiots that say everything is in a bubble. And everything is a Ponzi scheme.

Don't you dare lump me in with them.

Nope bro. We haven't met or spoken. But I have been following zero hedge, doctor housing bubble for a while and have formed my own. conclusion on few topics. I now visit zerohedge for comedic relief when I am drinking or when I get rejected by a Heffer at some random bar. . Logan Mohtashami says

Ahh just by that sentence structure I know who this is .

tatupu70 says

What does the demographics have to do with wealth inequality

As a demographic guy myself, we stick to thesis and principal, when you have very old and very young demographic shift gaps and then have Gen X clobbered by the housing crisis you have a spread gap like this.

Nothing like 1929, our economy is so much more diverse, efficient and we are more productive as a country compared to 1929

HadEnough says

zerohedge for comedic relie

Yes, its always good for a laugh

tatupu70 says

Don't you dare lump me in with them.

Fine nixed from that group ;-)

I am not lumping anyone in particular. Just sick and tired of people too focused on doom and gloom. If it will get that bad as zero hedgers proclaim then I will deal with it then which I don't think will ever occur. Till then I am counting the blessings and doing the best I have in last few years. I am genX and unlike boomers I have faith in the upcoming generation. Makes it a much worthwhile to invest in my business. tatupu70 says

Don't you dare lump me in with them.

Logan Mohtashami says

As a demographic guy myself, we stick to thesis and principal, when you have very old and very young demographic shift gaps and then have Gen X clobbered by the housing crisis you have a spread gap like this.

Nothing like 1929, our economy is so much more diverse, efficient and we are more productive as a country compared to 1929

Nope--that doesn't really explain it. We're talking about 1% of the population owning 30% of the wealth. An aging population doesn't cause that. And why would Gen X get clobbered, but boomers didn't?

tatupu70 says

And why would Gen X get clobbered, but boomers didn't?

They got impacted by the Housing bust more than any generation. Net worth nixed, a very high % had to tap into 401K and savings

Shifts with demographics with each economic cycle

M's who the oldest is now in the 30's are up to bat ...

If you want a good live census website this one has all data live

http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

tatupu70 says

Nope--that doesn't really explain it.

Demographically in this cycle ages 17-29 were massive as well as ages 49-65

Writing an article about this and with housing starts and why it's hard to get to the 50 year average of 1.5 million

Sometime people forget that population growth is one thing but in reality, prime age labor force growth is the real key

And as always, we had good growth in 1980's and 1990's but this did peak out short term in 2007 and it's only slowly growing again

Logan Mohtashami says

They got impacted by the Housing bust more than any generation. Net worth nixed, a very high % had to tap into 401K and savings

That doesn't answer my question. The question was WHY? Since you won't answer I'll tell you. They weren't hit harder, they were just more likely to have bought at the top and not have enjoyed as much of the run-up. So, it just seems to you like they were hit harder.

Logan Mohtashami says

Demographically in this cycle ages 17-29 were massive as well as ages 49-65

Writing an article about this and with housing starts and why it's hard to get to the 50 year average of 1.5 million

Sometime people forget that population growth is one thing but in reality, prime age labor force growth is the real key

And as always, we had good growth in 1980's and 1990's but this did peak out short term in 2007 and it's only slowly growing again

Once again--that's nice, but it has nothing to do with the topic at hand. The original question that you failed to answer was how does demographics explain the income and wealth inequality we see today?

fyi--I can explain it very easily. And I can post all the graphs if you'd like me to, but they've all been posted before.

Increasing globalization and automation have created structural unemployment. This drives wages down and increases corporate profits. Owners get much richer while labor gets poorer or the lucky ones who have jobs tread water.

I can post inequality charts, corporate profits charts, real wages charts, et. al.

It all fits.

It's not extreme to understand that U.S. Capitalism is broken.

Does it being broken mean we're all becoming serfs immediately ? Of course not. It's maybe even good for the market in the short term.

If it weren't broken the stock market might be lower than it is now. Go figure.

Even some of the 1%ers and many reputable economists have acknowledged the problem with the wealth disparity. It's obvious to anyone with a brain that this is a huge problem. Money isn't being invested in infrastructure or in education. Team logan wants to live of the residue of past successes and to hell with the long term future.

tatupu70 says

I can post inequality charts, corporate profits charts, real wages charts, et. al.

Bring those to Dinner ;-)

marcus says

Team logan

I have said this time and time again,

Low educated, Low skilled Americans need federal intervention, not state, Federal as the $ can be bigger, that isn't a very capitalist thing to say

My contention has been always. If everyone is supposed to be broke outside the 1% then the real poor don't get the help they need.

I could care less about the middle class, the data shows the poor are the ones that need help, but we don't push that agenda pushing fear, do it out strength as Bernie Sanders says, we are the wealthiest country in the world, some of programs are so small to do. :-)

HydroCabron says

tatupu70 says

How is pointing out issues with the US economy and desiring to get them fixed Anti American?

It is when "leftists" do it.

Hmmmm, I seem to remember being accused of anti-Americanism for pointing out various problems by somebody recently...

Okay, maybe I stand corrected about team logan.

Logan Mohtashami says

I could care less about the middle class

Well, the middle class is shrinking, 2 average sort of jobs aren't really enough to support a family any more. That's messed up. meanwhile corporate profits and the profits of the wealthy are exploding. There is no mechanism to address this. It's not as simple as higher taxes.

Meanwhile there are movements to privatize prisons, and public education, as if the problem is that somehow profits to executives in education will somehow make education more effective. That's not how it works for higher education ? Why should it for high school or elementary ?

How is it that we could afford to provide nearly free public college education 40 years ago, and now even the least expensive public universities cost tens of thousands per year ? All the cost that the government used to subsidize is now pushed on to the consumer. That's just plain stupid considering that the consumer of education is a future tax payer.

marcus says

Well, the middle class is shrinking,

because more people are making 100K, yes you're right

marcus says

That's not how it works for higher education ? Why should it for high school or elementary ?

All for free college but also add skill set training camp centers to help people upgrade into the 21st century again, really pushing for the poor here, College educated Americans base pay in 2015 median was 48K-54K not bad for a kid

This is damning evidence...

Logan Mohtashami says

tatupu70 says

lol--

Humans when they resort to that typing language (lol) internally know they have been beaten

Logan Mohtashami says

because more people are making 100K, yes you're right

100% incorrect, as usual. It's not because more people are making 100K. It's because more households have two incomes.

tatupu70 says

100% incorrect, as usual. It's not because more people are making 100K. It's because more households have two incomes.

College educated Dual Income = over 100K yes in coastal cities it's over 200K

This is why you shouldn't worry about the middle class because they're making more money

Focus on the poor

Those who never graduated High School, Never went to college, have a drug problem

Why are you guys worried about people who are buying cars, buying homes, having sex and making babies

Logan Mohtashami says

College educated Dual Income = over 100K yes in coastal cities it's over 200K

This is why you shouldn't worry about the middle class because they're making more money

Focus on the poor

Those who never graduated High School, Never went to college, have a drug problem

Why are you guys worried about people who are buying cars, buying homes, having sex and making babies

I'm just focused on trying to correct all the BS you are posting on here. You were 100% incorrect that more people are earning 100K in 2014 dollars now. I can't tell if you are purposely misleading or just don't know any better.

tatupu70 says

I'm just focused on trying to correct all the BS you are posting on here

Please show in this chart where Americans all of Sudden became a third world poor people

Honestly, you're making a great thesis for South America, you have the wrong country..

How in the world did Americans buy 100 Million cars and 40 Million homes if everyone is so poor in the last 8 years

Plus, if you think America's economy is the worst you really must hate the world

Fallacy of Logic is great here ...

Hence why retail sales, car sales and home sales are all at cycle highs and please don't make me post 80 years of consumption charts again

Logan Mohtashami says

Please show in this chart where Americans all of Sudden became a third world poor people

Please show me where I ever said America is a 3rd world country.

Logan Mohtashami says

Plus, if you think America's economy is the worst you really must hate the world

I don't think America's economy is the worst and I have certainly never said that.

tatupu70 says

Please show me where I ever said America is a 3rd world country.

There we go ... Ok ... Now that we have cleared the room of Americans not being dirt poor

Where on this chart did we become poor

Logan Mohtashami says

Fallacy of Logic is great here ...

All on your end. All you can do is make strawman arguments. That I'm un-American. Or hate America. Or think America's economy is the worst in the world.

Just try to stay on topic and we can have a good discussion.

tatupu70 says

strawman arguments.

Just give me a timeline on this chart where we lost it as a country

Logan Mohtashami says

There we go ... Ok ... Now that we have cleared the room of Americans being dirt poor

Where on this chart did we become poor

I've already told you the problem with that chart multiple times. Again--are you purposely being obtuse or are you being disingenuous?

The biggest problem is inequality. That chart shows the whole country so the gains of the 1% mask the real problem.

tatupu70 says

The biggest problem is inequality

You want Rich people to have less wealth, that would imply if the 1% just fell out the planet you have no issue with anything else then correct

For a country of 322 Million working 154 million that looks pretty good in 2016

Logan Mohtashami says

You want Rich people to have less wealth, that would imply if the 1% just fell out the planet you have no issue with anything else then correct

It depends on what you do with their wealth after they fall.

tatupu70 says

It depends on what you do with their wealth after they fall.

Photograph of an unknown man during the Depression c.1932

Do you guys and gals agree with me on this, people just dressed better back then even very poor men had coats and dressed properly ...

The best thing about being a permabull is you will catch all the bull markets.

And also if you're in the business of selling securities how are you going to profit from the opinion that there's a 50% or better chance of a major downturn ? Better to just not go there. Am I right ?

Logan Mohtashami says

College educated Dual Income = over 100K yes in coastal cities it's over 200K

This is why you shouldn't worry about the middle class because they're making more money

Okay, if that's your definition of middle class, then I guess you're right. 50 years ago, middle class was a painting contractor and a stay at home wife. Twenty years ago it was two 30k service sector jobs.