patrick.net

Romney was well under 2:1 at this point in 2012 (i.e. Obama favored, but by less than 2:1).

How large is the pool. It would be nothing for Super PACS to bring her ods up by making her the favorite. Odds work by money placed. The more people that bet for something then the narrower those odds become.
This is why if you got a hot horse you don't want to blab it around. You can cause a 70/1 longshot to be the favorite just seconds before the bell.

I'm sure I'll be kicking my self for not jumping on almost 200% return by not betting on Trump now. Those ODDS wont be the odds in October.

Also on that Chart if you pick off all of the losers that's not even in the race anymore. You can see the margin that Hillary holds over Trump is slim.
There's only so much PAC money can do, it can buy odds for the short term. If that doesn't pay off, and scare voters away. Because this isn't the 1990's anymore any people don't vote like they have to vote how the most other guys are voting and for the candidate that raised the most money. Ooh Ooh uh uh It's a smarter voter. Not your typical dumb son of a bitch that brought us Bush then Obama and bother were double headers.

marcus says

Currently better than 5:2 odds that Hillary beats Trump

I see 3/8 andTrump 14/5.

You win 3 dollars for every 8 you bet on Hillary. Or you can win 14 for every 5 you bet on Trump.

14 for 5 now, huh? Odds are getting worse for trump.

YesYNot says

14 for 5 now, huh? Odds are getting worse for trump.

But those aren't TRUMP's Odds. Those are the Odds the house has on Trump.
In Gambling the Odds are based on the spread, not who might actually win.
Favorites more often than not lose at paramutual betting establishments 4 out of every 10 races. They don't even come in the Win or Place.
It just simply means everyone bet on the Horse with the cute Pink Leggings and the Polka Dot Blinders BECAUSE. Not because the horse was statisticly better.

You guys do understand gambling right? The house has to set the odds so A they'll have enough to cover the spread. and B so they make a cut.

It has nothing to do with real statistics or chances to win.

I could bet on Trump, then consider it a hedge against the absolute fucking our economy will take if he wins, and how much less money I would make because of the Trump recession... And yeah, throwing several million people out of the country, starting trade wars with our #1 and #3 trade partners will be HUUUUGe.

Tenpoundbass says

It has nothing to do with real statistics or chances to win.

Wtf ?

It's what people are willing to bet actual money on, so it certainly reflects the perception of the chances or the best estimate of the chances.

I was being conservative when I said 5:2. That's actually the bet I would be willing to make on Hillary, i.e. I would pay 5:2.

The odds you see also reflect the profit the house makes. That's why if you want to bet on Hillary, you give up worse than 5:2 over 3:1 at some places. And if you want to bet on Trump, you can get about 5:2 or little less at most places. If you wanted the real odds, or best estimate of the odds, you would calculate the average for each, offered by casinos and then split the difference. Just eyeballing it, the money says it's very close to 5:2.

Tenpoundbass says

Favorites more often than not lose at paramutual betting establishments 4 out of every 10 races. They don't even come in the Win or Place.

Yeah, well a couple things. One, this isn't a horse race. Two, if it was a horse race that had a favorite at 5:2 to win ? That, would be extremely unusual. If you bet on the favorite to win, you very likely are getting better than even money. So of course, by definition, it's not likely to win.

Gamblers actually have a very strong history of being right about elections. They aren't betting with emotions, who they want to win. They are betting based on what they believe the chances are versus what the current odds are. For example IF some super rich guy that likes to gamble a little, also thinks that Trump Is only 3:2 to lose in Novemeber, he might make a big bet in which he gets 5:2. That's a profitable transaction for him (assuming he can afford to lose, which he knows he probably will).

The more these bets are made, the closer the odds get to the consensus of recent bets that have been made, but mostly the bets that people are willing to make now (which are related to recent bets - because of bookies hedging bets they have taken). It's a market.

http://addictinginfo.org/2015/12/19/professional-bookies-predict-elections-with-91-accuracy-they-say-the-gop-nominee-will-be/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/how-gamblers--historys-mo_b_2011534.html

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/05/the-secret-world-of-gamblers-betting-millions-on-the-2016-election.html

marcus says

Gamblers actually have a very strong history of being right about elections. They aren't betting with emotions, who they want to win. They are betting based on what they believe the chances are versus what the current odds are. For example IF some super rich guy that likes to gamble a little, also thinks that Trump Is only 3:2 to lose in November, he might make a big bet in which he gets 5:2. That's a profitable transaction for him (assuming he can afford to lose, which he knows he probably will).

Yeah well let's see the odds closer to November.

Here's the thing those dumb enough to jump on those Trump odds now, will be screwed as the Election rolls around. And he's the extreme favorite, and they win just mere pennies for every dollar they bet.
You don't end up winning on the Odds that you placed your bet at. You win on the Odd that were posted at post time. You don't get to say well hold on wait a minute!
I placed the bet when it was 70/1 why are you paying 4/80?

I've seen it happen on several occasions.

Oh look Marcus has Three links from the Kings of Liberal Filth Propaganda to "Educate" me on how the bookies are always right. The election is still 5 months away, mind you.

More over those are all Euro-bookies, where we can't probe PAC money from the States influencing the Odds now, by just throwing millions even tens of millions on Hillary now.
That would affect the Odds even if Marcus is too stupid to realize this or just playing stupid who knows. But the Liberal play here. Is by investing millions or tens of millions now on books being held in Socialist EU gambling establishments. Then the Liberal Filth News brigade and then run those odds in constant news rotation and claim that the Bookies are always right.

The Liberal mind fuck. It never stops the Liberal filth is always creeping up on you. Johnny keep your junk clean and don't get no Liberal jam on your Cracker. It's a bitch to get off.

marcus says

Currently better than 5:2 odds that Hillary beats Trump

I was looking at the odds after last weeks massacre at Pulse. Surprisingly, the odds did not budge.
If you bet $100 on Hillary, you win $30.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Tenpoundbass says

You don't end up winning on the Odds that you placed your bet at. You win on the Odd that were posted at post time.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. This isn't horse race betting. The pay off is for the bet you make. It's like sports betting.

If someone bet a million dollars on Trump and got 5:2 odds, and he bet a million on Hillary right before the election getting even money (becasue Trump was slightly favored at that time), he would actually be locking in a definite guaranteed profit of $2.5 million. Well only if Trump wins that is.

*Edit: This is wrong. In this situation, if Hillary wins he loses nothing, If Trump wins the profit is only 1 and1/2 a million. The 2.5 million win on original Trump bet minus the million lost on Hillary bet.

Do you really think that if you bet now that the Bears win the super bowl next year and you get 40:1 on your bet, that when the super bowl rolls around you're only going to get even money payoff ?

That's not how it works. This isn't para mutual betting. The casinos profit on the difference between the odds offered for each side of bets. That's why when you look at each casino, you see a different price for Trump than Hillary. This will be true even in October when it's definitely one or the other.

OK let's do this.

With the Losers that aren't even in the race any more.

WIthout the losers

Hmm without the other guys on that Chart that has nothing to do with real statistics. Nor do they actually reflect the 11 Point gain that Trump actually has over the Killtons, just turn into to the same 47% Trump Hillary 54% lie they've been selling the whole time they have been selling, every GOP primary candidate was whooping Trump by 5 to 7 point lead. Only to have the voters say otherwise.

That Chart has nothing to do with reality, and those Odds are more indicative of PAC money seeding the odds at this early in the game.
The real odds will come after October 15 or even later. I would say sooner. But there's going to be a lot of Liberal mind fucking and panic brigade. We're passed triggered hysteria the Media is going to pollute reality with between now and then. Especially after the GOP convention.

Bernie made it Known yesterday his minions and trouble making Mandigos and Thugs, are on tap to intimidate and chase down people at the GOP and have their way with them with sheer impunity on national television and posted on YouTube. Still no investigations will happen it those beaten and chased down will be at fault. And you wonder why we're all happy this all about to be over?

If you're so sure Marcus then lets see you make a huge bet.

I challenge anyone here to bet more than $1000 on Hillary right freaking now, and post the receipt without your personal identifying, and financial information redacted.

Come on put your money where you fear mongering mouth is.

You can't just admit that you don't know how sports betting works ?

You can't admit you don't know how the house works.

Odds are placed to intice "Action".

Believe it or not. there are people who cherry pick long shots and have systems worked out where they can detect those long shots.
How ever the more people that get turned on to that tip looking to score. The house will cover it's ass and adjust those odds accordingly.

Actually if this were a real horse race, they would both be 1/43 odds or equally just as crappy odds. You want them to show third in your Trifecta or Perfecta and hope you get one of the long shots to win and place.
Even if the establishment is so certain they've got this game rigged.
Most of the establishment isn't so sure. People will be standing over shoulders when the votes are tallied, there wont be no Okeydoke shit going on in November.

Our man Trump, well not him, but the wise ass smart mother fuckers, he is surrounding him self with that has seen every ditry tick in the Liberal play book. Will be riding the ass of the GOP convention, and then the General election vote count. There wont be no shit.

It's the same thing Reagan did. Had Reagan not been on top of his game, Carter would have gotten a second term.

Tenpoundbass says

You can't admit you don't know how the house works.

Well, I used to be a floor trader. I was the house basically.

Here, look at this https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb/game-lines-market-group for baseball odds. These are bets where definitely one side or the other wins.

The house tries to make the same amount of bets on both sides, their profit is the spread between the two. As conditions change they may aggressively change the price to cover their exposure - even talking a small loss sometimes. They aren't in the business of actually gambling on the games.

On that first one the Mets are -176 Atlanta is +161 So The mets are favored, you bet $176 for a chance to win $100. If you bet on Atlanta, you bet $100 for a chance to win $161

Every time the house takes both sides of this bet, they lock in $15.

That's how the house works.

By the way, I never bet on sports, except pools in March madness and super bowl.

The house tries to make the same amount of bets on both sides

---------------

In sports wagering, books will choose a side at times.

marcus says

That's how the house works.

That's right, but Favorites affect the odds. That's just how it works.
Espectially gambling on an election. Your bet is essentially a poll. The more people bet the more it affects the odds.

errc says

In sports wagering, books will choose a side at times.

Well, obviously they can do whatever they want. It may happen to some extent because they can't layoff too many bets they took on one side. Also, I wasn't talking about small time bookies, I was talking casinos. But of course you're right. They don't want to though. It defeats the purpose.

I guess if they have an expert that they think is reliable or if it's fixed (which we all know NEVER happens). But in any non fixed game or election, the odds caused by betting on both sides should be close enough to the actual expected outcome that it would be stupid for them to take a side. Then they're just another gambler (but one that got their bet on at a favorable price).

Tenpoundbass says

That's right, but Favorites affect the odds. That's just how it works.

No shit sherlock. So the house keeps it balanced. They try to take the same amount of bets on each side, changing the odds (relative to other casinos to affect that balance).

If they strongly felt that it was going to get closer by election time, they might take more bets on HIllary than on Trump, which they could do by changing the odds they offer compared to other casinos. Offering better odds for Hillary bets and worse odds for Trump bets (relative to other casinos). That way they are effectively betting on Trump. If the election gets closer, they can lock in a profit at any time.

It's a market basically.

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of August 5 at Bovada
Jeb Bush +150
Scott Walker +300
Marco Rubio +400
Donald Trump +750
Rand Paul +1200
Ben Carson +1600
Chris Christie +2000
Ted Cruz +2500

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Jeb Bush +250
Donald Trump +250
Marco Rubio +250
Carly Fiorina +1000
Ben Carson +1000
Ted Cruz +1000
John Kasich +1200
Chris Christie +2000
Rand Paul +7500

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of November 19 at Bovada
Marco Rubio +160
Donald Trump +300
Ted Cruz +300
Jeb Bush +1000
Ben Carson +1200
Chris Christie +2000
John Kasich +2500
Carly Fiorina +5000
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – PARTY TO WIN 2016 U.S. ELECTION
Odds as of November 19 at Bovada
Democratic Party -150
Republican Party +120
-------------------------------

With the official announcement from Vice President Joe Biden that he will not run for the Democratic nomination, Hilary Clinton has jumped to a gigantic favorite to become the next President of the United States.

Clinton is now a -110 favorite to become the next President according to Bovada, which is up from +130 only two weeks ago.

The Republican nominees have largely remained unchanged following a debate earlier this week, with Donald Trump seeing a slight bump in his Presidential odds shifting from +600 to +500.

The biggest mover though has been Jeb Bush. Over the past several weeks there have been multiple unflattering reports about the former GOP front-runners campaign that has seen large financial cuts in that area.

Bush was +600 to become the next President and +500 to become the Republican nominee on October 19, he has since shifted to +1200 to become the President and +700 to run for the Republicans.

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -110
Donald Trump +500
Marcio Rubio +600
Bernie Sanders +1000
Jeb Bush +1200
Ted Cruz +3300
Carly Florina +4000
Chris Christie +5000
John Kasich +7500
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -1200
Bernie Sanders +600
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Donald Trump +225
Marco Rubio +225
Ben Carson +375
Jeb Bush +700
Ted Cruz +900
Chris Christie +1800
Carly Fiorina +2000
John Kasich +2500
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – PARTY TO WIN 2016 U.S. ELECTION
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Democratic Party -140
Republican Party +100
-------------------------------

Hillary Clinton continues to lead all challengers on the odds to win the next Presidential Election in the United States, with the sportsbooks setting her as the clear betting favorite to win that election in 2016.

At Bovada Clinton is the +130 favorite on the odds to be the next President of the United States, which is up slightly from her +150 odds from a month ago.

A trio of Republicans follow Clinton on those political betting futures at the sportsbook, with Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio all at +600 odds. Bernie Sanders, challenging Clinton for the Democratic nomination, is at +1000, with Vice President Joe Biden at +1200.

Clinton is also the clear -300 favorite on the odds to be the Democratic Presidential nominee for 2016, with Sanders trailing at +400 and Biden just behind him at +500. Biden, though, has not yet made an announcement that he will be running for President in 2016.

Bush, Trump, and Rubio are the +250 co-favorites on the odds to be the Republican Presidential nominee for 2016, with Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz all at +1000, and John Kasich at +1200. Chris Christie trails at +2000, with Rand Paul well back at +7500.

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton +130
Jeb Bush +600
Donald Trump +600
Marco Rubio +600
Bernie Sanders +1000
Joe Biden +1200
Carly Fiorina +2000
Ben Carson +2000
John Kasich +3300
Chris Christie +3300
Ted Cruz +3300
Elizabeth Warren +6600
Martin OMalley +10000
Rand Paul +20000
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Hilary Clinton -300
Bernie Sanders +400
Joe Biden +500
Martin O'Malley +5000
Lincoln Chafee +15000
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Jeb Bush +250
Donald Trump +250
Marco Rubio +250
Carly Fiorina +1000
Ben Carson +1000
Ted Cruz +1000
John Kasich +1200
Chris Christie +2000
Rand Paul +7500

Odds as of December 1 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -110
Marco Rubio +500
Donald Trump +600
Ted Cruz +750
Bernie Sanders +1400
Ben Carson +2500
Jeb Bush +2500
Chris Christie +5000
John Kasich +6600
Carly Fiorina +7500
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of November 19 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -2500
Bernie Sanders +1000
Martin O’Malley +10,000
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of November 19 at Bovada
Marco Rubio +160
Donald Trump +300
Ted Cruz +300
Jeb Bush +1000
Ben Carson +1200
Chris Christie +2000
John Kasich +2500
Carly Fiorina +5000
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – PARTY TO WIN 2016 U.S. ELECTION
Odds as of November 19 at Bovada
Democratic Party -150
Republican Party +120
-------------------------------

With the official announcement from Vice President Joe Biden that he will not run for the Democratic nomination, Hilary Clinton has jumped to a gigantic favorite to become the next President of the United States.

Clinton is now a -110 favorite to become the next President according to Bovada, which is up from +130 only two weeks ago.

The Republican nominees have largely remained unchanged following a debate earlier this week, with Donald Trump seeing a slight bump in his Presidential odds shifting from +600 to +500.

The biggest mover though has been Jeb Bush. Over the past several weeks there have been multiple unflattering reports about the former GOP front-runners campaign that has seen large financial cuts in that area.

Bush was +600 to become the next President and +500 to become the Republican nominee on October 19, he has since shifted to +1200 to become the President and +700 to run for the Republicans.

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -110
Donald Trump +500
Marcio Rubio +600
Bernie Sanders +1000
Jeb Bush +1200
Ted Cruz +3300
Carly Florina +4000
Chris Christie +5000
John Kasich +7500
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -1200
Bernie Sanders +600
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Donald Trump +225
Marco Rubio +225
Ben Carson +375
Jeb Bush +700
Ted Cruz +900
Chris Christie +1800
Carly Fiorina +2000
John Kasich +2500
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – PARTY TO WIN 2016 U.S. ELECTION
Odds as of October 30 at Bovada
Democratic Party -140
Republican Party +100
-------------------------------

Hillary Clinton continues to lead all challengers on the odds to win the next Presidential Election in the United States, with the sportsbooks setting her as the clear betting favorite to win that election in 2016.

At Bovada Clinton is the +130 favorite on the odds to be the next President of the United States, which is up slightly from her +150 odds from a month ago.

A trio of Republicans follow Clinton on those political betting futures at the sportsbook, with Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio all at +600 odds. Bernie Sanders, challenging Clinton for the Democratic nomination, is at +1000, with Vice President Joe Biden at +1200.

Clinton is also the clear -300 favorite on the odds to be the Democratic Presidential nominee for 2016, with Sanders trailing at +400 and Biden just behind him at +500. Biden, though, has not yet made an announcement that he will be running for President in 2016.

Bush, Trump, and Rubio are the +250 co-favorites on the odds to be the Republican Presidential nominee for 2016, with Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz all at +1000, and John Kasich at +1200. Chris Christie trails at +2000, with Rand Paul well back at +7500.

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton +130
Jeb Bush +600
Donald Trump +600
Marco Rubio +600
Bernie Sanders +1000
Joe Biden +1200
Carly Fiorina +2000
Ben Carson +2000
John Kasich +3300
Chris Christie +3300
Ted Cruz +3300
Elizabeth Warren +6600
Martin OMalley +10000
Rand Paul +20000

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Hilary Clinton -300
Bernie Sanders +400
Joe Biden +500
Martin O'Malley +5000
Lincoln Chafee +15000

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Odds as of October 19 at Bovada
Jeb Bush +250
Donald Trump +250
Marco Rubio +250
Carly Fiorina +1000
Ben Carson +1000
Ted Cruz +1000
John Kasich +1200
Chris Christie +2000
Rand Paul +7500

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of June 15 at Bovada
Hillary Clinton -300
Donald Trump +240
Other +2500

Exactly so if Pro Hillary(establishment PACS) and the Never Trump PACs all jump in early with large bets on Hillary, they affect the odds early on.

Psychology is everything with the Establishment. They think they can mind fuck there way to putting over that useless gasbag Thunder Colon Killton into the oval office by deploying Gambling odds psychosis on the voting public.

It's way to early to be calling the Odds on the election. Unless you're just trying to misrepresent the facts.

Clearly the odds change as the election progresses. What was a real outside chance at +750 for Trump to win the nomination became a certainty.
Bookies don't predict the future, they just take bets on it.

Quigley says

Bookies don't predict the future, they just take bets on it.

Yes, that has been my point. But also that the bets made, and thus the odds offered are a better predictor than polls. Actually they are a damn good predictor. For example, if the the odds right before election day show it isn't even close, and Hillary is favored similarly to now, then you know with certainty that Trump will lose. Unless it's totally rigged.

Quigley says

Clearly the odds change as the election progresses.

Had nothing to do with the election progress. And EVERYTHING to do with PACs changing their horse. As the money moved around their Horse rose to the top.
Never ONCE does Trump become the favorite thoughout the whole year he's been running. WHY?

Because he's winning he didn't feel the need to grease the wheel over at Sportbet Casino.

Quigley says

Bookies don't predict the future, they just take bets on it.

marcus says

. For example, if the the odds right before election day show it isn't even close, and Hillary is favored similarly to now, then you know with certainty that Trump will lose. Unless it's totally rigged.

We're not even talking about grapefruits and bowling balls anymore.

That's exactly what I've been saying. Tell me about the odds the day before the election.

Btw, I edited the first part of my comment. I saw Quigley was referring to the nomination being a certainty. I misread becasue of the odds being +750 seemed like gen election odds unless you went way back.

I like this. I used to get a kick out of TPBs total lack of grasp of risk and his opinion that oil market prices are easy to manipulate by large price differences.

This is possibly even more stupid.

Tenpoundbass says

Hillary(establishment PACS) and the Never Trump PACs all jump in early with large bets on Hillary, they affect the odds early on.

People didn't have to bet big money on Hillary to make her a favorite in the election markets. Remember, she was ahead of Obama at one point in 2008. Her husband is Bill Clinton. The only time odds would be easy to manipulate, would be early on, and what would be the point ? Everyone would know that it's early and that the odds don't mean much, and are easy to move by just betting a few hundred thousand.

Look. I pay attention to odds because I think they are a more accurate snapshot than polls. But to think that Hillary pacs manipulate them ? I don't want to say that's a new low in stupidity for you, because your record can not be broken. But come on man. That's ridiculous.

marcus says

Look. I pay attention to odds because I think they are a more accurate snapshot than polls.

But they've been dead wrong on Trump the whole fucking time!

Tenpoundbass says

But they've been dead wrong on Trump the whole fucking time!

No, the odds have always accurately reflected the current consensus of peoples perception of his chances. As I said, it's a market.

Of course as it changes from day to day, one side is temporarily right and the other side is temporarily wrong. Does anyone actually think that the perceived odds in Dec 2015 should be the same as the odds in June 2016 ? Of course not.

3:1 is not a very good chance of winning when the election is only 5 months way.

That's a 1 in 4 or 25% chance of winning. And 3:1 is what the casinos are willing to bet on Trump (when they take a bet on Hillary).

Tenpoundbass says

But they've been dead wrong on Trump the whole fucking time!

Lets' say you made a 40:1 bet that the Miami Dolphins were going to win the super bowl. Then half way through the season, they have a winning record, and are doing pretty damn well, and now it's 8:1. That doesn't mean the casinos have been wrong about Miami the whole time. It just means their chances are better now than they were before. It says nothing about the future. The 8:1 odds would still presumably be very good estimate of their current chance of going all the way.

I would like to add that these sort of odds reflect betting by people who are mostly 1%ers, and this demographic has been proven to be completely out of touch with the sentiment of ordinary Americans. They wanted Jeb! They bet heavily on Jeb! They got the guy they didn't bet on: Trump, because people actually voted for him. They wanted Hillary and bet heavily on her as well. But with her they had a candidate who was unmatched by light years in name recognition and democrat party dominance. She was ordained from the beginning, running against nobodies of the first order. The fact that one of those nobodys (who had almost no name recognition a year ago) was able to nearly match her in elected delegates is indicative of her unpopularity and distastful reputation even among registered democrats.

Point is: the betting here is mostly from big money folks, and these people have done miserably in predicting this year's politics.
I think polls are a far more accurate indication of public sentiment.

Trump's votes are of a higher, more robust quality: whiter, maler, and more motivated. He doesn't cheat by attracting immigrant or female (eww) votes, which we all know don't really count.

That's why the polls don't reflect the overwhelming Trump victory we're about to witness. Once in the booth, Trump voters will black out the box next to his name more firmly, with conviction and virility, thus weighting their vote 28% more than the typical limp-wristed and effeminate Hillary vote, which positively reeks of bad perfume, decadence and denial of American exceptionalism.

marcus says

No, the odds have always accurately reflected the current consensus of peoples perception of his chances.

Just say you're fucking with me...

Quigley says

The fact that one of those nobodys (who had almost no name recognition a year ago) was able to nearly match her in elected delegates is indicative of her unpopularity and distastful reputation even among registered democrats.

Funny, I thought it was because primaries are always about the party base, and Hillary is more moderate, more conservative, and thus more electable by the political middle (which includes independents and some republicans) that always decide elections.

Don't they say candidates always pivot to the center for the general ? Bernie would have had to do that if he had won the nomination. Hillary won't have to, she's already there.

Oh What's the odds on Brexit perhaps we can use that as a barameter of how full of shit those books are.
I bet the Brexit Stay is equally as padded. Anyway Socialist Liberal Establishment can spend money to finfluence the Election they'll jump on it.

Just look how the media reports the Millions Trump can raise in an afternoon. Trump has gotten to where he is inspite of this Millions. He didn't spend any of it to influence the Primaries.
But now to the stupid Liberal vote. Those guys have been imaculately brainwashed into thinking more money better canidate.

Let's look at the Brexit vote then compare it on Tuesday.

Still no takers on the Hillary losing bet I proposed earlier I see.

Quigley says

They wanted Jeb! They bet heavily on Jeb! They got the guy they didn't bet on:

See ask this man he understands.

Quigley, you're right that what Bernie did is impressive. But I take it as more indicative of the electorate not buying the BS status quo as much anymore, trickle down, income enequality, etc., rather than how bad a candidate Hillary is. It's true though also, that her negatives are a bit high. Nothing compared to Trump's though.

Which of course begs the question, is Trump just rigging this so that Hillary can win ? Maybe even without knowing that that's his role ?

Quigley says

I think polls are a far more accurate indication of public sentiment.

IT would be true that gambling odds are going to be very much affected by polls, where as contrary to what TPB thinks, polls are not affected at all by the gambling odds (or to an extremely extremely small degree). But gambling reflects a lot of people doing an analysis of what is going to happen and a willingness to bet on that. With polls, more than half that respond aren't even going to vote, and of those that will, many will change their minds based on dabates, future speeches, ads, and so on. The polls usually don't measure the conviction behind an opinion. Those polls that do measure conviction or strength of negative opinion, are looking very bad for Trump.

Tenpoundbass says

Oh What's the odds on Brexit perhaps we can use that as a barameter of how full of shit those books are.

I bet the Brexit Stay is equally as padded.

Can we dig up some unskewed polls on the upcoming Brexit vote?

NO where are the Odds for it?

WED 12.00a
What will be the result of the UK Referendum On EU Membership be?

Stay +200 Leave - 300

That's the Odds folks.
If you Bet on 100 on Stay you win $33 bucks for your troubles.
If you bet 100 on Leave and it hits you win $200 for your troubles.

OR! For $200 bucks you only risk losing $67 bucks.
If you bet a hundred on each. If they stay and you hit because you put a hudred on both. But you still lose $67.
But if they chose leave, then you win $100.

Only losers would vote to stay.