patrick.net

I mean to me it's crazy to think this way but I can see how people can be confused because they see a lower trend data curve and they believe it has gone negative

This is why it's always better to listen to data miners than ideological ranters

Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.

Point taken though.

Maybe it is better to listen to both. Because there are lies, damn lies, and then their is statistics.

indigenous says

Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.

I see this everywhere and a lot bears try to make this out to be something that it isn't... Huge problem for them in this cycle and it really falls back to their lack of education in terms of reading data properly.

For example home prices are always growing post 2012 but the YoY growth is less that the peak year and that doesn't mean that prices are declining

That is the best way to explain because people get confused all the time with that

They really believe wages are lower than in 2000, not even close, it's even a real stupid thesis to even have.

But People get confused about the median income chart all the time, even so called experts

My biggest mistake in talking about wages before is that I should have explained in more detail that chart above ... I assumed people had a better grasp of how demographic economics work and that was a big no no ... will never make that mistake ever again

Logan's cool.

indigenous says

Which states are going to be growing the fastest?

Sure as hell isn't California.

So your a Hirsute Annalist now?

MMR says

Which states are going to be growing the fastest?

The fastest job growth is in the South and West -- but not in California or Texas

Tenpoundbass says

So your a Hirsute Annalist now?

In all honesty

A lot of these sales and starts estimate from economist and analyst where way to bullish early on the cycle. So people have taken notice to my work over the years and the slow and steady call on demand and housing starts.

This cycle

- soft demographics
- No more exotic loans
- major delay in household formation

So, not that it's almost 2017, we are getting near my 20202-2024 time frame, so this cycle was a whiff for the more extreme bullish people, so they wanted a perspective from the people that called the sales/start demand curve properly.

Plus, the recessions bears also need a lesson in economics as well.. Between the PMI Bears, Inflation Bears, QE bears, etc etc, we have never seen an economic cycle that has had more terrible recession calls than this one.

A lot Anti Fed, Pro Gold, Extreme left and right wing thinking, very unsophisticated economic theories.

Break down economic equilibrium in relationship with to housing economics

So far, only on this panel.. I really want a shot a Anti Federal Reserve Panel group! Either way I am going to have a say with that group.. Can't wait! Plus First time in Texas too

HOSTED BY

TONI MOSS, CEO, AMERICATALYST LLC and EUROCATALYST BV

TIM SKEET, Senior Advisor, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION | ICMA

FEATURING

DOUG BENDT, SVP of Research and Product Development, RENTRANGE

MARK FLEMING, SVP and Chief Economist, FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION

LOGAN MOHTASHAMI, Senior Loan Manager, AMC LENDING GROUP

ALLAN WEISS, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, WEISS RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward