patrick.net

Trump.

50% - 47% - 2% - 1%.

340-380 EV.

IHLlary will win and personally sodomize every woman with a knobby strap on who bared her tits for Trump.

I'll go with Trump.

Lot of momentum going for him right now, too many cons for Hillary... and she's down (depending on the poll) 6-10 points in the last few days.

Also, the possibility of another Wikileaks surprise.

I've also been watching Nate's "nowcast" - and Trump is going up about 5% every single day. I'll predict his map shows around a 50/50 split on election day, in order to save his ass/reputation, from being so wrong on Trump from the beginning.

His recent articles are written more along the lines of, "oh shit, Trump could pull this off."

Trump.
Fuck you Clintons!

I think the idea Hillary can win NC handily is BS, if it went for Boring Romney in 2012, it would certainly go for exciting Trump.

I suspect that Trump surprises in NH, PA, MI, and/or WI. Not saying he'll sweep, but that it'll be close and he may even win one or more.

Evan McMufflin gets low teens % in Utah. Johnson gets less than 2%. No idea on Stein.

Evan McMuffin is a Romney-Kristol-Norquist plant.

http://21stcenturywire.com/2016/10/31/hillarys-secret-weapon-cia-candidate-evan-mcmullen-backed-by-mitt-romneys-wall-street-political-machine/

He makes me sick.

Then again, Mormons...

Quigley is deplorable says

Trump.

Fuck you Clintons!

Clinton.
Fuck you Trumps!

I'm so clever!

PS Pray for bad weather. If you're only dragging yourself to the polls to stop Trump, and really don't like Hillary all that much, a good storm or cold blast might convince you to just say "Fuck it" and stay/go home.

Another great idea: Put out like a Grey's Anatomy Special or My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 out on Netflix the second Tuesday of November to keep low information Teachers at home.

Honestly I don't know.

freespeechforever says

driven by largest block of angry, formerly disenfranchised voters

They've been voting since the mid-70s purely on the abortion issue and cutting restrictions on Wall Street, banks & billionaires.

They're totally franchised, and have always been.

All Hillary has to do is win California and New York. and the Super Delegates.

hydrocarbon -you may want to reassess.

White turnout, as evidenced in the GOP primaries, will be skyrocket high this year, exceeding turnout of 2008 or 2012 by 12% to 16% easily (+ 7 million to + 11 million votes - maybe + 14 million votes).

Many of these ADDITIONAL voters (prob 85%+) wouldn't vote if Trump weren't in the race.

IOW, Trump has and will expand the base turnout.

On the other side, Hillary's number crunchers are already projecting a loss of 15% to 20% of African-American votes cast compared to either 2008 or 2012, and Hillary also has a "Millennial problem" due to the Bern and other factors.

Hillary. It's tightening due to the constant drip of wikileaks and the Comey bomb. It's quite possible, he'll get an upset win. But many votes are already cast, and most people have already made up their mind. In the end, there wasn't any new info there, and it doesn't appear that we'll get any, so I'd bet on H.

YesYNot says

...the constant drip of wikileaks and the Comey bombthere wasn't any new info there, and it doesn't appear that we'll get any...

joshuatrio says

His recent articles are written more along the lines of, "oh shit, Trump could pull this off."

Nate "Plastic" Silver did the same thing during the primaries. Some people just never learn.

YesYNot says

But many votes are already cast, and most people have already made up their mind

1. In some states you can change your vote.
2. I'm guessing that undecided voters are most likely going to wait until election day.

If illary was a male, would "he" have a chance of winning? My guess is no. Lib's are so narrow minded, voting for illary just because she is a femaile.

freespeechforever says

Trump will get MANY votes of those in their 40s, 50s and 60s who've not voted in many, many years (maybe decades).

I am in my 60's and I voted (early) for Trump! Many of my fellow veterans are also voting for Trump.

Unfortunately I can't do this because I'm not in the States right now, but if anybody can, go line the streets or highly trafficked areas on Tuesday with signs, loudness, and turn it down only for Trump.

Enthusiasm is contagious and most want to be on the winning team. Somebody who is undecided and drives past 2-3 spirited Trump groups on the way to the polls is going to be very effected by that. Whereas you know most Hillbullies are schlepping, shuffling sadly to the polls and won't be out in large numbers except maybe it the "Dark" Centers of SJW Leftism.

I think Hillary will win.

For the record I'm voting for Trump.

Trump 47% Kaine 23% Johnson 9% Stein 5%
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In truth who knows, a lot can happen in a week especially with this circus.

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

rpanic01 says

In truth who knows, a lot can happen in a week especially with this circus.

I'm surprised that the mud slinging right now isn't much worse.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

I'm surprised that the mud slinging right now isn't much worse.

Me too. They're rehashing the Marchando crap, but that doesn't really bring in new voters. The Hairy Armpits and White Knights swayed by that are already swayed. I'm not 100% sure they have any dirty crap left to pull, at least not anything major. I think the Pussy Grabbing + the Parade of D-list Celebs/Non-Profit Dem-connected Upper Class Blondes was the their major Oct. Surprise.

PS Watch all them recant if Trump wins.

She also leads polling on almost no issue, so changing the topics won't work.

If they're going to make connections betwenn Trump and black church burnings, it's over. That's a less effective old standby. Vast majority are insurance scams.

MrWonderful says

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

FUCK Daddy!

MrWonderful says

Daddy says if you don't vote for him you can go fuck yourself.

FUCK Daddy!

jvolstad says

I am in my 60's and I voted (early) for Trump!

Even atheist will pray for you now!

Pray for FortWayne too!

Wait! There are unforgivable sins?

HEY YOU = Mr Wonderful?

joshuatrio says

I've also been watching Nate's "nowcast" - and Trump is going up about 5% every single day. I'll predict his map shows around a 50/50 split on election day, in order to save his ass/reputation, from being so wrong on Trump from the beginning.

So far, I'm spot on - up around 5% today. His now cast had Trumps chances at 28% yesterday. He now has Trump at 33.7%...

So yeah, Nate's gonna dog this one out and go 50/50 come election day - that way his bullshit can continue on and he doesn't look like a fool when Trump wins.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If they're going to make connections betwenn Trump and black church burnings, it's over. That's a less effective old standby. Vast majority are insurance scams.

Chuck Norris by a landslide!

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Me too. They're rehashing the Marchando crap, but that doesn't really bring in new voters.

Machado was an attempt to pull Humptie Trumptie off of the teleprompter script. But Kelly-anne (not a hooker name) Conway has him well trained at the point. Hillary's going to have to try some other buttons.

joshuatrio says

Nate's gonna dog this one out and go 50/50 come election day - that way his bullshit can continue on and he doesn't look like a fool when Trump wins.

Nate's predictions are based on the polls. If the polls continue to shift, his calculated probability will continue to shift. When you see that all tires are round, do you see a conspiracy theory among manufacturers?

I'm not a Trump fan, but I hope we wins because Hillary is the source of all evil. However, I have this feeling that Hillary is going to win because the establishment will find a way.

YesYNot says

Nate's predictions are based on the polls.

Sure they are.

Just like his predictions of Trump in the primaries.

I have been saying from the start-Trump it will be. In between during the tape scandal-had soem doubts. But now-I think this country is smart and know a 3rd world corrupt leader when they see one.

He has algorithms to take into account other things. But the primary input is polls.

Nate's models were accurate in the primaries.

As of May 18:

The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent).

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

YesYNot says

He may have speculated incorrectly as he branched out to punditry, but that doesn't mean that the polls and Nate's models were horrible.

He was still wrong, and let his own bias get in the way - which is what's happening (again) now.

You'll find Trump up in a large majority of polls which would put him in the lead - yet, Nate's nowcast model is NOT up to date and still shows Hillary in the lead in states where Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Nate is playing it safe, giving Trump 5% a day - to give each candidate 50% by voting day, so his lame ass is covered. It took him a whole WEEK to turn Florida red, when Trump was winning that state a while back.

joshuatrio says

Trump is now winning (NH, VA, MN). Even PA is starting to come into question.

Trump is supposedly winning in MN, but not PA??? Seems the other way around is much more likely. Disclosure: I've been to PA many many times, but never to MN.