patrick.net

Misc says

It now on average costs considerably more to mine a bitcoin than it is worth given electric costs.

You’re right to flag that—recent data shows the average cost to mine one Bitcoin has surged above its market price, largely due to electricity costs and network difficulty.

📊 Current Mining Economics (Nov 2025)
• Average Mining Cost per BTC: ~$95,000–$105,000 (depending on region and energy source).
• Market Price of BTC: ~$89,000 after the recent 30% drop.
• Result: Many miners are operating at a loss of $6,000–$15,000 per coin.

⚡ Why Costs Are So High
• Energy Prices: U.S. electricity rates have risen sharply, especially in states like Texas and Florida where many miners operate.
• Network Difficulty: Bitcoin’s mining difficulty hit record highs in 2025, requiring more computational power per block.
• Halving Effect: The April 2024 halving cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, doubling the effective cost per coin.
• Cooling & Infrastructure: Rising temperatures in mining hubs (Texas, Middle East) increased cooling costs.

🧠 Implications
• Miner Capitulation Risk: Smaller miners may shut down or sell reserves, adding downward pressure on BTC.
• Shift to Low-Cost Regions: Mining is increasingly concentrated in areas with cheap hydro/nuclear power (e.g., Paraguay, Quebec, Kazakhstan).
• ETF & Treasury Dynamics: With mining unprofitable, institutional buyers (ETFs, corporate treasuries) become the main source of new demand.

✅ In short: Yes—on average, it now costs more to mine a Bitcoin than it’s worth, a classic sign of miner stress and potential capitulation.

What Happens Next
1. Short-Term (2025–2027)
• Consolidation: Smaller miners exit; large firms with cheap energy (hydro, nuclear, flare gas) dominate.
• Geographic Shift: Mining migrates to Paraguay, Quebec, Kazakhstan, and Middle East energy hubs.
• Price Pressure: If BTC stays below mining cost, supply shrinks as miners shut down, which paradoxically can stabilize price.
2. 2028 Halving
• Rewards Drop Again: Block reward falls from 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC.
• Mining Economics: Cost per coin could exceed $150K unless BTC price rises significantly.
• Security Question: Lower rewards mean miners rely more on transaction fees. If fees don’t rise, network security could be stressed.
• Market Response: Historically, halvings have preceded major bull runs (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024). Investors anticipate scarcity, often driving price higher.
3. Long-Term (Post‑2028)
• Fee Market Evolution: Bitcoin must transition from block rewards to transaction fees as the main miner incentive.
• Institutional Role: ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign reserves (like El Salvador’s) may become the dominant buyers, offsetting miner sell pressure.
• Price Outlook: If adoption continues, BTC likely needs to trade well above $150K to keep mining profitable after 2028.

🧠 Big Picture
• If BTC price lags mining cost → miner consolidation, fee reliance, possible short-term volatility.
• If BTC price surges post-halving (historical pattern) → mining remains viable, and scarcity narrative strengthens.
• Critical Transition: The 2028 halving is a turning point where Bitcoin shifts closer to a fee-driven security model.

✅ In short: Mining stress now is a preview of what’s coming. After the 2028 halving, Bitcoin will either need a major price increase or a stronger fee market to sustain network security.
Would you like me to build a scenario table showing BTC mining cost vs. price projections for 2028–2032 under different energy and adoption assumptions? That would make the trade-offs crystal clear.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

If they are so smart why is Trump stock in the red?

This is what Eric Trump and American Bitcoin Inc is planning as far as leveraging "large scale or industrial-scale operations" for Bitcoin mining and earning fees from Bitcoin transaction processing.

...................

What This Means Post-2028 Halving
• Mining Consolidation: Smaller miners in high-cost regions will likely shut down, leaving only industrial-scale operations in cheap energy hubs.
• Fee Market Transition: As block rewards shrink, transaction fees must rise to sustain network security.
• Price Pressure: Historically, halvings have preceded bull runs. For mining to remain viable, BTC likely needs to trade well above $100K after 2028.

Eric Trump's American Bitcoin Inc. (NASDAQ: ABTC) is aggressively scaling into industrial‑scale mining operations, aiming to become one of the largest U.S. Bitcoin infrastructure providers.

📊 Current Expansion Plans
• Massive Hashrate Growth: In September 2025, American Bitcoin expanded its installed mining capacity from ~10 EH/s to ~24 EH/s, a 2.4x increase.
• ASIC Fleet: The company energized ~16,300 ASIC servers with an average fleet efficiency of 16.4 joules per terahash (J/TH).
• Merger Strategy: A 2025 merger with Gryphon Digital Mining boosted reserves to 4,090 BTC (~$391M) and expanded mining scale.
• Revenue Impact: Q3 2025 revenue jumped to $64.2M, up 453% year‑over‑year, with gross margins improving to 56%.

🧠 Strategic Positioning
• Hybrid Model: Unlike pure treasury vehicles (like MicroStrategy), American Bitcoin combines direct BTC purchases with industrial‑scale mining, giving it a structural cost advantage.
• Infrastructure Backbone: The company brands itself as building “America’s Bitcoin infrastructure backbone”, signaling ambitions to rival global mining giants.
• Energy Efficiency: By deploying next‑gen ASICs and optimizing power contracts, ABTC aims to mine BTC at a discount to market prices.
• Treasury Growth: With over 4,000 BTC already held, ABTC is positioning itself as both a miner and a corporate Bitcoin treasury proxy.

⚠️ Challenges Ahead
• Market Volatility: Despite strong operations, ABTC’s stock dropped after Q3 earnings due to broader crypto sell‑offs.
• Energy Costs: Sustaining profitability depends on securing cheap electricity contracts, especially post‑2028 halving.
• Competition: Firms like Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms remain larger, so ABTC must keep scaling to compete.

✅ In summary: American Bitcoin Inc. is scaling industrial mining capacity to ~24 EH/s, running 16,300 ASICs, and merging with Gryphon Digital Mining to build a U.S. Bitcoin infrastructure backbone. Its hybrid mining + treasury model is designed to accumulate BTC at a structural discount, though profitability depends on energy costs and post‑halving economics.

With only $2 million in cash, it won't take long before it hits the capital markets for more cash infusions or starts selling its holdings to pay the bills. Nothing says long term viability quite like cannibalization..

Misc says

With only $2 million in cash, it won't take long before it hits the capital markets for more cash infusions or starts selling its holdings to pay the bills.

As of Sept 2025, American Bitcoin Inc (owned by Eric Trump) has about $8 million in cash and net equity of $1.05 billion.

I understand your point that it needs cash to operate, and it may need to secure another loan or sell off existing assets (i.e., Bitcoin) to convert to cash.

We shall see how long the Bitcoin sell off continues since it started about 6 weeks ago when Bitcoin reached an all time high of around $126,000.

WTF ? ? ?

.......................

https://beincrypto.com/us-government-bitcoin-crash-microstrategy-fact-check/

Allegedly, US government officials wanted MicroStrategy’s market value to net asset value (mNAV) near 1.0 and therefore manufactured a crash on Bitcoin to compress the premium.

“The US is contemplating a multi-billion-dollar investment in MSTR, and they needed the mNAV to be 1 before it made sense for them to invest, so they manufactured a crash on bitcoin,” wrote Teddy, a popular user on X (Twitter).

https://open.substack.com/pub/quoththeraven/p/tether-and-when-denial-becomes-a

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-now-allow-crypto-etfs-211500405.html

(Bloomberg) -- Vanguard Group, the world’s second-largest asset manager, has decided to allow ETFs and mutual funds that primarily hold cryptocurrencies to be traded on its platform, reversing a longstanding position.

Starting on Tuesday, Vanguard will allow ETFs and mutual funds that primarily hold select cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Solana, to be eligible for trading on its platform. It’s a compromise that belies the firm’s long-standing view that digital assets are too volatile and speculative for serious portfolios and comes despite a more than $1 trillion drawdown in crypto market value since early October.

MolotovCocktail says

https://open.substack.com/pub/quoththeraven/p/tether-and-when-denial-becomes-a

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58678907
https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/cryptocurrencies/china-bans-all-crypto-what-it-really-means-for-the-global-market/ar-AA1Gw1f4

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reaffirmed the total prohibition on crypto trading in late 2025, coordinating with 13 government agencies to crack down on illegal digital currency activities

For them trading cryptocurrency was devaluated to the level of trading baseball cards.

REpro says

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reaffirmed the total prohibition on crypto trading

Its a threat to the Chicom's interests. They rather have Chicom subjects (i.e. Chinese nationals) invest in high rise apartments.

Also the Chicoms think crypto will help strengthen the dollar such as with stable coin and Bitcoin Reserve owned by the US Treasury, and they believe having large gold reserves will help to reduce the dollar as a reserve currency.

Opinion: For these big players, investing in bitcoin is all about power
Governments increasingly are using cryptocurrency to gain geopolitical clout and decouple from the dollar

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-still-has-one-thing-going-for-it-that-investors-are-missing-d2988d9b

....................................................................

Quick Summary:
The MarketWatch article argues that despite volatility and skepticism, Bitcoin’s enduring advantage lies in its scarcity and fixed supply. This unique characteristic continues to differentiate it from other assets and remains underappreciated by many investors.

Key Points from the Article
• Scarcity as Core Value
• Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it fundamentally different from fiat currencies that can be printed in unlimited amounts.
• This scarcity is what gives Bitcoin its long-term appeal, especially in times of inflation or monetary expansion.
• Investor Blind Spot
• Many investors focus on short-term price swings, regulatory uncertainty, or competition from other cryptocurrencies.
• The article emphasizes that these concerns often overshadow Bitcoin’s most important feature: its fixed supply.
• Comparison to Other Assets
• Unlike gold, which can still be mined, or fiat currencies, which can be expanded, Bitcoin’s supply is mathematically predetermined.
• This makes it a unique hedge against inflation and monetary policy shifts.
• Market Sentiment
• Current investor sentiment may be cautious due to volatility and macroeconomic factors.
• However, the article suggests that long-term holders recognize Bitcoin’s scarcity as its enduring strength.
• Broader Implications
• Bitcoin’s scarcity could play a larger role in institutional adoption as investors seek assets with predictable supply dynamics.
• The piece implies that this overlooked factor may drive future demand, even if short-term trading remains turbulent.

Why It Matters for You
Given your interest in institutional finance and Bitcoin ETF analysis, this article reinforces the narrative that scarcity—not just price action—is the key driver of Bitcoin’s long-term value. For your Gulf Coast community, where inflation and economic resilience are pressing concerns, highlighting Bitcoin’s fixed supply could help frame discussions about its role as a hedge or alternative store of value.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/podcasts/larry-fink-and-brian-armstrong-are-not-worried-about-another-crypto-winter.html

Here’s a concise 4‑bullet summary of the New York Times podcast article featuring Larry Fink (BlackRock) and Brian Armstrong (Coinbase):

• Larry Fink and Brian Armstrong both expressed confidence in crypto’s resilience, arguing that institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are making another “crypto winter” unlikely.
• Fink highlighted BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF success, noting strong investor demand and positioning crypto as a legitimate asset class alongside traditional investments.
• Armstrong emphasized Coinbase’s role in mainstreaming crypto, pointing to growing retail participation and the integration of blockchain into financial infrastructure.
• Both leaders framed crypto as entering a new maturity phase, where volatility remains but long‑term growth is supported by broader acceptance and global financial integration

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/bitcoin-down-nearly-30percent-from-record-high-history-shows-thats-normal.html

AD says

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/bitcoin-down-nearly-30percent-from-record-high-history-shows-thats-normal.html

Obviously I could be way wrong but I don't expect any huge drops from here. At least if the reference frame is bitcorn. Maybe it drops to 70 or 50 if we don't have a crazy recession.

But I also don't expect the crazy upside anymore either.

Mostly because of institutional investors replacing retail. If it goes up a lot their 1% will now be 2% so they have to rebalance so they sell. If it drops too much they have to buy more to get back to 1%.

Now if we have a financial crisis then I could see a lot more selling to get cash to cover other positions, because it's still a risk-on asset.

Maybe a good entry point approaching again. :)

AD says

• Scarcity as Core Value
• Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it fundamentally different from fiat currencies that can be printed in unlimited amounts.

I don't bitcoin but Isn't a single bitcoin infinitely divisible? Can't one transfer say, .5 bitcoin or .000000000005 bitcoin or are the smallest transferrable units 1.0?

stfu says

AD says

• Scarcity as Core Value
• Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it fundamentally different from fiat currencies that can be printed in unlimited amounts.

I don't bitcoin but Isn't a single bitcoin infinitely divisible? Can't one transfer say, .5 bitcoin or .000000000005 bitcoin or are the smallest transferrable units 1.0?

You are correct. And it's likely a small handful of people who are in direct control of it. They can move the market at will. It's a video game where a few people got a ton of credits when the game came out and stashed them. At some point they will have enough credits/cash and will get bored with it and just stop playing #sellitall.

It's a trading vehicle. Not investment. And I will stick to my guns on this, it will be worthless at some point. Don't be holding the bag. Be awake and watching 24/7 because at some point it will drop way more than 30%. Full panic has yet to hit this realm. It can take a decade or two. Look at housing during the baby boomer housing boom from the late 80's to 2006. Took a while to play out. Thing is you could at least live in a house. What does bitcoin do?

At some point the stripper that got 7 houses will go broke. Don't be the stripper.