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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


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2018 May 14, 8:51am   80,301 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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146   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 18, 6:57pm  

LeonDurham says
Trump is the one who is opposed to freedom of the press.


You're confusing Freedom of the Press with being subject to Criticism.

It's very unnerving when the Press is making a full court press for and against something almost across the board, like Free Trade or the Iraq War or Voraciously Anti-Trump.

So far the only Press that has been silenced is Alternative Media via Big Tech with Legacy Media cheering it on.
147   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 18, 6:59pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Ummmm....
It was said months ago that Trump isn't a target of a criminal investigation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/04/mueller-told-trump-hes-not-a-criminal-target-but-that-doesnt-mean-his-evidence-against-trump-is-weak/?noredirect=on

Love Democracy DIes in Our Deep State's attempt to put a spin on it, though.


lol--funny how when the press says what you want it to say, you believe it. But when it says something different, it's fake news.

The hypocrisy of the Trump cult is nothing short of ridiculous.

Regardless, if you read the article, it doesn't really say what you what it to say.
148   Patrick   2018 Aug 18, 7:06pm  

LeonDurham says
Trump is the one who is opposed to freedom of the press. He is the one punishing his political opponents. He is the one against freedom of religion. I could go on and on.


Lol, how about some facts though?

What evidence do you have for your assertions? I don't see any evidence at all that Trump is opposed to freedom of the press or freedom of religion.
149   Patrick   2018 Aug 18, 7:08pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
So far the only Press that has been silenced is Alternative Media via Big Tech with Legacy Media cheering it on.


Yes, now that's what I'm talking about! Actual facts.

Google and Facebook etc have truly literally censored the press, small press, but definitely clear undeniable censorship.

Trump has done no such thing. He calls them out on their ridiculously partisan coverage, but that's all.
150   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 18, 7:13pm  

LeonDurham says
Why? You're the one saying the economy sucked under Obama and it's much better now. Please show me how real wages going down and negative is better?


I told you why - years after the trough of the recession, and no real wage growth? Finally, at the very tail end of the Obama presidency, perhaps keeping pace with inflation but nowhere near caught up.
151   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 18, 7:15pm  

LeonDurham says
Read the quote again. Deficit and Debt are NOT the same thing.

Obama reduced the deficit. Trump is ballooning it out of control.


Obama almost doubled the debt, which is the result of deficit spending. $1.3T in his first budget, and over a Trillion until nearing the end of his office.

Saying the deficit and debt are not related is a falsehood. Deficits add to the debt, and by the end of his Presidency, Obama almost Doubled the entire National Debt. That couldn't have happened without running big deficits.
152   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 18, 7:16pm  

LeonDurham says
lol--funny how when the press says what you want it to say, you believe it. But when it says something different, it's fake news.


The spin is, it was reported Trump is not the subject of an investigation, but the Media tried to imagine scenarios or loopholes where that would not longer be true, instead of just reporting the news.

"Accountability Journalism" = Spin.
153   lostand confused   2018 Aug 18, 7:18pm  

LOL freedom of the press-press say anything they want to-I can't say anything back. That is not how it works-except with Bush.
154   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 18, 8:19pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Obama almost doubled the debt, which is the result of deficit spending. $1.3T in his first budget, and over a Trillion until nearing the end of his office.

Saying the deficit and debt are not related is a falsehood. Deficits add to the debt, and by the end of his Presidency, Obama almost Doubled the entire National Debt. That couldn't have happened without running big deficits.


Of course they're related. But they're not interchangeable. You said Obama increased the deficit which is factually incorrect.

Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression so of course the debt increased. But, as the economy improved, he was able to significantly reduce the deficit like a good President should. Compare that to Bush or Trump who had a great economy and still greatly increased the deficit.
155   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 18, 8:19pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
I told you why - years after the trough of the recession, and no real wage growth? Finally, at the very tail end of the Obama presidency, perhaps keeping pace with inflation but nowhere near caught up.


So, Trump causing real wage growth to go negative is somehow Obama's fault? Please tell me more.
156   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 18, 8:24pm  

Patrick says
Lol, how about some facts though?

What evidence do you have for your assertions? I don't see any evidence at all that Trump is opposed to freedom of the press or freedom of religion.


No problem. Here you go:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/trump-revokes-post-press-credentials-calling-the-paper-dishonest-and-phony/2016/06/13/f9a61a72-31aa-11e6-95c0-2a6873031302_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1db75500719d

"Donald Trump said Monday that he is pulling The Washington Post’s credentials to cover his events because he is upset with the newspaper’s coverage of his campaign."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/29/everything-need-know-donald-trumps-muslim-ban/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/21/trumps_attack_on_freedom_of_religion_130942.html#!
157   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 18, 8:26pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

You're confusing Freedom of the Press with being subject to Criticism.


Nope, I'm rightly stating that revoking press credentials because Trump doesn't like the articles is restricting freedom of the press.
158   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 18, 8:27pm  

LeonDurham says

But, please detail these "big concessions" from Europe. What products? How much? When was the deal signed?


Did you find the agreement with the EU yet? Can you detail these "big concessions" that Mr. Art of the Deal was able to get from the EU?
159   rdm   2018 Aug 18, 9:09pm  

LeonDurham says
Did you find the agreement with the EU yet? Can you detail these "big concessions" that Mr. Art of the Deal was able to get from the EU?


It's in the same file as the incredible nuke deal he cut with North Korea. I understand we did get some bones and a dog tag.
160   curious2   2018 Aug 18, 10:33pm  

LeonDurham says
opposed to freedom of the press or freedom of religion.


No problem. Here you go:


Interesting: two articles from WaPo (one reprinted on RCP), both from 2016, both misleading; they illustrate why DJT called WaPo the Amazon Washington Post and part of why Democrats lost in 2016.

Your presentation of them makes me wonder if this is a reason why my favorite justice on SCOTUS decided to retire this year, thus making sure he could be replaced before any possible "blue wave."

Also, it illustrates what I said before: Democrats appear to be campaigning on opposing the President and spreading Islam.

As background, you should be aware that the federal government has Constitutional power to restrict international travel. For many years, American law prohibited Americans from traveling to certain communist countries, and prohibited their nationals (or any advocates of a totalitarian doctrine) from traveling here.

Yet, somehow, when candidate Trump proposed a travel ban affecting primarily certain Muslim countries, Democrats with TDS declared that a billion foreign Muslims have a Constitutional right to travel here and even to immigrate. SCOTUS sided with the President, initially unanimously, but ultimately in a 5-4 split where the 4 Democrats on the Court opposed the President, based on this unprecedented purported right of foreign Muslims to travel here and to immigrate. The partisan split was very surprising, to say the least.

Asked to provide evidence of President Trump opposing freedom of the press, you cite candidate Trump barring WaPo from his campaign events, due to WaPo's misleading campaign against him. These were technically private events, paid for by his campaign, and he had a right to ban opposing campaigns, including WaPo's as you have so nicely illustrated. Wake me when he signs an Alien and Sedition Act.

Asked to provide evidence of President Trump opposing freedom of religion, you cite a columnist going bonkers about the travel ban and related suggestions about how to defend against Islamic terrorism. For example, candidate Trump endorsed Mayor Bloomberg's policy (supported also by the federal government) of having NYPD surveil mosques. Somehow, WaPo forgot to accuse Mayor Bloomberg of opposing freedom of religion. The other example was profiling, e.g. by airport security, so a 20yo Muslim male might get more scrutiny than a 70yo Quaker grandmother. Considering that nearly all airline terrorism in the last 20 years has been perpetrated by Muslim males under 40yo, some people might call such profiling prudent, which is why Israel does the same thing. When candidate Trump suggests doing what Israel does, WaPo goes bonkers and accuses him of attacking freedom of religion, while somehow failing to accuse Israel of the same. President Carter banned Americans from traveling to Iran, and yet somehow WaPo did not accuse him of opposing freedom of movement.

So there we see it. Somehow, the Democrats' priorities are (a) oppose Trump and (b) spread Islam. It didn't work in 2016, but somehow magically it will provide a blue wave in 2018. Time will tell, but if the blue wave does not happen in November, I hope you might please reconsider the agenda in time for 2020.
161   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 19, 1:01am  

LeonDurham says
Of course they're related. But they're not interchangeable. You said Obama increased the deficit which is factually incorrect.


Uh, he was President for several years with $1T+ budgets, also a product of the Democratic Party who controlled the House 2007-2011.


https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_chart.html

LeonDurham says
Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression so of course the debt increased. But, as the economy improved, he was able to significantly reduce the deficit like a good President should. Compare that to Bush or Trump who had a great economy and still greatly increased the deficit.


No, what happened is the Republicans reoccupied that House starting in 2011. Then the deficit started going down.

The reason it crashes down to ~$600B in 2013 is because of the Republican House passing the "Budget Control Act of 2011" which took effect in early 2013. NOT Obama's doing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_budget_sequestration_in_2013
162   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 19, 1:43am  

LeonDurham says
So, Trump causing real wage growth to go negative is somehow Obama's fault? Please tell me more.


You're ignoring your own chart that has negative real wage growth during Obama's presidency.

Have another chart. Pretty weak numbers for 8+ quarters after the Recession began.


163   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:26am  

curious2 says
Also, it illustrates what I said before: Democrats appear to be campaigning on opposing the President and spreading Islam.


No, what you actually said was Dems are "demanding that Islam be spread" which is a complete lie. But Dems are campaigning on opposing Trump as they should. That's almost always a good strategy at the mid-term elections as it tends to be a referendum on the party in charge. And with Trump's approval ratings continuing to be historically low, it's a no-brainer.


curious2 says
As background, you should be aware that the federal government has Constitutional power to restrict international travel.


Of course. But as further background, you should be aware that the Federal Government cannot restrict said travel based on one's religion.

curious2 says

Asked to provide evidence of President Trump opposing freedom of the press, you cite candidate Trump barring WaPo from his campaign events, due to WaPo's misleading campaign against him. These were technically private events, paid for by his campaign, and he had a right to ban opposing campaigns, including WaPo's as you have so nicely illustrated. Wake me when he signs an Alien and Sedition Act.


Let me rephrase that for you. Trump didn't like certain press members writing unfavorable things about him and his Administration so he took away their press privileges. He's already tweeted that he plan to take away WH press credentials if reporters continue to write negative stories about him and his Administration. The tweet itself is a threat and another example of Trump trying to restrict freedom of the press.
164   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:35am  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Uh, he was President for several years with $1T+ budgets, also a product of the Democratic Party who controlled the House 2007-2011.



lol--again with the "it's the House's fault when Dems control the House, and the President's fault when Dems control the Presidency"? Give it a break. Obama budgets started in 2009 and the deficit was high because the US was in the midst of the worst economy since the Great Depression. During a horrible economic time, the deficit is always bad because tax revenues go WAY down while unemployment and welfare costs go way up. Even with no special programs to try to help the economy. This is why the government should be running surpluses during the better times.


TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
No, what happened is the Republicans reoccupied that House starting in 2011. Then the deficit started going down.

The reason it crashes down to ~$600B in 2013 is because of the Republican House passing the "Budget Control Act of 2011" which took effect in early 2013. NOT Obama's doing.


Which President signed that Act? Pretty sure it was Obama. He compromised with Republicans and got them to cut military spending which was a huge part of the reduction in deficits. It was ABSOLUTELY Obama's doing.
165   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:36am  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
You're ignoring your own chart that has negative real wage growth during Obama's presidency.

Have another chart. Pretty weak numbers for 8+ quarters after the Recession began.



I'm ignoring nothing. Your premise is that the Obama economy sucked and Trump has somehow made it great again. I'm simply showing you that that is incorrect and the Obama economy was, in fact, better than the Trump economy has been (thus far, anyway).
166   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 19, 6:39am  

LeonDurham says
I'm ignoring nothing. Your premise is that the Obama economy sucked and Trump has somehow made it great again. I'm simply showing you that that is incorrect and the Obama economy was, in fact, better than the Trump economy has been (thus far, anyway).



Again, the economy should have recovered faster and stronger than it did. A 4% quarter coming out of the worst recession since the Great is no big accomplishment.

Getting a 4% quarter 10 years after the Great Recession is a big deal.
167   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:45am  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Again, the economy should have recovered faster and stronger than it did. A 4% quarter coming out of the worst recession since the Great is no big accomplishment.

Getting a 4% quarter 10 years after the Great Recession is a big deal.


lol--should have?? What does that even mean? There is no "should" on the economy. It's not like a yo-yo where it comes right back when you drop it.
168   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 19, 6:47am  

LeonDurham says
lol--should have?? What does that even mean? There is no "should" on the economy. It's not like a yo-yo where it comes right back when you drop it.



Typically, a few quarters after a recession, the economy quickly makes up ground. Bragging that it took what, 8 quarters to finally have a 4% bounceback, is kind of silly. Underwhelming!
169   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:49am  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Typically, a few quarters after a recession, the economy quickly makes up ground. Bragging that it took what, 8 quarters to finally have a 4% bounceback, is kind of silly. Underwhelming!


There is no typically. You'll notice that there is a trend that recoveries have been getting longer and weaker since the 80s. I can tell you why this is, but the cult of Republicanism cannot accept the fact that inequality will be the death of the US economy.
170   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:52am  

btw--

Did you find the big concessions from the EU yet?
171   rocketjoe79   2018 Aug 19, 8:05am  

Tim Aurora says
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Nope, best President ever. Not "managing a decline" like Obama or making the world safe for Globalists like Clinton-Bush.

Love how being tough on trade ended up with big concessions from Europe. Another thing the ever-wrong pundits were wrong about.

Just wait until the FISA scandal is finalized. Strzok is involved in everything from the shitty Iran Deal to entrapping Flynn to rigging the Election.

You Russian can keep om telling that. Traitor Trump is very near to impeachment


and how about also getting to Euros to pay their fair share of NATO fees? More work to be done here, but the Russians will try another "annexation" if they are not held in check. That's Europe's responsibility.
172   Shaman   2018 Aug 19, 8:31am  

LeonDurham says
I'm simply showing you that that is incorrect and the Obama economy was, in fact, better than the Trump economy has been (thus far, anyway).


Using wage growth adjusted for inflation. Since we actually had DEflation during Part of Obama’s reign of terror, even completely stagnant or declining wages look better on such a chart. Our inflation rate was extremely modest during the rest of it, which also helps “real wage growth” numbers, as does rehiring as people went back to work from the worst recession in 80 years.

Trump is taking an already recovered economy and packing it extra full of jobs and wage gains. Meanwhile Obama era immigration policies continue to hamper wage gains, and corporately owned politicians in both parties argue for MOAR CHEAP LABOR. Siding with the enemy of the workers isn’t going to win you any friends.
173   MrMagic   2018 Aug 19, 9:31am  

LeonDurham says
lol--we're measuring health of the economy by spending at Walmart?? bwahahahahahaha.


So, I see you missed the other two lines of my post:

MrMagic says
Retail sales jumped in July, but so did the sales performance at retailers as consumers not only went shopping but spent money on travel and dining out.
Economists say consumer spending is being helped by the tax bill and also the fact that U.S. job creation remains strong, even as unemployment dipped below 4 percent.


Does Walmart control those parts of the economy too???

BBbhhhhhwwwwaahaaahaahaaahaa LOL LOL LOL
175   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 10:22am  

Quigley says
Using wage growth adjusted for inflation. Since we actually had DEflation during Part of Obama’s reign of terror, even completely stagnant or declining wages look better on such a chart. Our inflation rate was extremely modest during the rest of it, which also helps “real wage growth” numbers, as does rehiring as people went back to work from the worst recession in 80 years.


Yes, thanks for explaining how inflation adjusting works. What you forgot to include was that real wages and real wage growth are the best way to measure if peoples' standard of living is getting better or worse. It's the best way of measuring if people think they're better or worse off.

So when real wage growth is negative, it means the standard of living is getting worse for most folks.

Quigley says
Trump is taking an already recovered economy and packing it extra full of jobs and wage gains. Meanwhile Obama era immigration policies continue to hamper wage gains, and corporately owned politicians in both parties argue for MOAR CHEAP LABOR. Siding with the enemy of the workers isn’t going to win you any friends.


Job growth under Trump is worse than under Obama. In the 20 months since his election, the economy has created 3.9MM jobs. In the 20 months before his election, the economy created 4.3MM jobs. So Trump is responsible for overseeing a 10% reduction in jobs created.
176   MrMagic   2018 Aug 19, 12:25pm  

LeonDurham says
ob growth under Trump is worse than under Obama. In the 20 months since his election, the economy has created 3.9MM jobs. In the 20 months before his election, the economy created 4.3MM jobs. So Trump is responsible for overseeing a 10% reduction in jobs created.


There you go folks.... more Liberal Logic, comparing Apples to hammers, comparing Obama's LAST 20 months to Trump's FIRST 20 months.

Hey Joey, when you do a comparison (honestly), you use the SAME time periods. This is how that's done:



BTW Joey, that chart is from WaPo, not Fox News.
177   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 12:36pm  

Magic--we've been over this before. The correct way to look at it is clearly how I presented it.

Why is it that Trump cult members always present dishonest arguments?
178   MrMagic   2018 Aug 19, 12:41pm  

LeonDurham says
So when real wage growth is negative, it means the standard of living is getting worse for most folks.


Most Folks??

LeonDurham says
The correct way to look at it is clearly how I presented it.

Why is it that Trump cult members always present dishonest arguments?


Here, maybe a few more FACTS can clear your rose colored glasses regarding both of their FIRST months:

Job creation


Wages... gee, they're neck and neck...



UNemployment rate - tons more lost jobs under Obama


Labor Force Participation - Dropped like a rock under Obama



Manufacturing Jobs??



Conclusion

Overall, in a comparison of the labor market performance during the first year of Trump compared to the labor market performance during the first year of Obama, the clear winner is Trump. By almost every measure, the current administration appears much stronger.

Any questions???
179   MrMagic   2018 Aug 19, 12:42pm  

LeonDurham says
Why is it that Trump cult members always present dishonest arguments?


Projecting again?
180   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 12:48pm  

MrMagic says

Conclusion

Overall, in a comparison of the labor market performance during the first year of Trump compared to the labor market performance during the first year of Obama, the clear winner is Trump. By almost every measure, the current administration appears much stronger.


And like I said--dishonest.

MrMagic says

Projecting again?


Nope. The difference is Obama was handed the worst economy since the Great Depression and Trump was handed an economy that was humming along nicely.
181   anonymous   2018 Aug 19, 12:53pm  

LeonDurham says
The difference is Obama was handed the worst economy since the Great Depression and Trump was handed an economy that was humming along nicely.
Before you make arguments you can't handle, you had better consider all the facts. Obama came out of the Great Recession with RECORD low interest rates, so a monkey could create jobs in that environment...and it did. Trump is creating jobs and a growing economy at the tail end of a "recovery" and rising-interest-rate environment. As Mr Magic said earlier, apples and hammers.
182   MrMagic   2018 Aug 19, 12:54pm  

LeonDurham says
MrMagic says

Conclusion

Overall, in a comparison of the labor market performance during the first year of Trump compared to the labor market performance during the first year of Obama, the clear winner is Trump. By almost every measure, the current administration appears much stronger.


And like I said--dishonest.


Yes, you "say" a lot of things, but unfortunately, most are lies, parroted back from CNN ans MSNBC,

LeonDurham says
The difference is Obama was handed the worst economy since the Great Depression and Trump was handed an economy that was humming along nicely.


So to smokescreen Obama's performance, you think the HONEST way is to use two completely DIFFERENT time periods to straw man your argument?

Feel free to disprove my graphs from the SAME time period..

I'll be waiting... and waiting..... and waiting....
183   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 1:09pm  

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Obama came out of the Great Recession with RECORD low interest rates, so a monkey could create jobs in that environment...and it did. Trump is creating jobs and a growing economy at the tail end of a "recovery" and rising-interest-rate environment. As Mr Magic said earlier, apples and hammers.


OK before we analyze your statement, let's first establish to which exact rate you refer. T-Bill, Fed funds, 10 year Treasury? Once we do that we can look at the historical relationship between interest rate and jobs created. I suspect you won't like what history tells you.

Trump is creating FEWER jobs. The only change from one 20 month period to the next is the President. Jobs created has gone down.

And, fwiw, I'm not saying Trump has caused the economy to create fewer jobs (although his tax plan almost certainly is a cause), I'm just trying to educate the Trump cultists that the economy has actually gotten worse under Trump.
184   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 1:12pm  

MrMagic says
So to smokescreen Obama's performance, you think the HONEST way is to use two completely DIFFERENT time periods to straw man your argument?


Nope--as I told you before, the best way to look at it is to analyze the time period immediately before Trump was elected and then compare it to the time period immediately after he was elected. The only change is then Trump and his new policies. One would expect to see an improvement if his policies were working and making the economy better.

What is actually seen is mostly a continuation of the established trendlines with maybe a slight worsening.
185   Shaman   2018 Aug 19, 1:48pm  

It doesn’t matter. NO President has failed to win re-election when the economy is going great. And the results from the primaries show that Trump’s endorsement means something to voters.

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