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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


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2018 May 14, 8:51am   80,013 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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196   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 19, 2:32pm  

LeonDurham says
No, it's exactly what you said. Obama negotiated and signed the bill yet you somehow give the credit to the House. That's dishonest and wrong.


Right, he just happened to do that after the Dems lost the House. He HAD to sign the bill because it was popular and the Republicans cleaned up in the elections on a wave of popularity.

Again, a new Republican House initiative, not the President's.
197   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 2:39pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Right, he just happened to do that after the Dems lost the House. He HAD to sign the bill because it was popular and the Republicans cleaned up in the elections on a wave of popularity.

Again, a new Republican House initiative, not the President's.


That's complete BS. Here's what the GOP says:

https://www.gop.gov/fact-its-president-obamas-sequester/





(mic drop)
198   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Aug 19, 2:42pm  

WOW, that's totally incorrect.

Obama was desperate to prevent the House Initiated Plan and did everything possible to weaken it. Eventually a compromise was reached after many threats of shutting the government down.

In 2011 the Republicans grudging raised the Debt Ceiling but only if there would be deficit cuts going forward.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/174925-boehner-i-got-98-percent-of-what-i-wanted-in-debt-deal

If the Obama White House was so in favor of the Sequester, why did they issue Press Releases demonizing it like this?
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2013/02/22/what-sequester

Fact: Obama was pressured into agreeing to the Sequester, he finally went along with a compromise plan to save face. The push for the sequester came from the House Republicans, NOT the Obama WH.
199   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 2:43pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
WOW, that's totally incorrect.


Talk to the GOP. It's their website. You're not suggesting they are dishonest?? Are you??

Truth is Obama probably did suggest the sequester to force the GOP to get serious on negotiations, but the Republicans overplayed their hand so Obama was forced into accepting the sequester. Neither side really wanted it. There was no push from either side.
200   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 2:46pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

In 2011 the Republicans grudging raised the Debt Ceiling but only if there would be deficit cuts going forward.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/174925-boehner-i-got-98-percent-of-what-i-wanted-in-debt-deal


This is pretty hilarious though and shows plainly what a bunch of dishonest hypocrites the GOP has become. They only care about debt and deficits when there is a Dem President. How anyone can support these clowns is beyond me.
201   curious2   2018 Aug 19, 3:31pm  

P.S. This 2015 Politico article describes the split within the Democratic party with regard to spreading Islam into NATO. The pro-Islamic faction prevailed, overruling the concerns and objections that other Democrats (including from CA and NY) had expressed. Hillary Clinton campaigned on increasing the spread of Islam in emulation of Angela Merkel, and John Conyers and other Democrats demanded even more, and Democrats lost.

In the context of Syrians, some Republicans suggested bringing in Christians but not Muslims, and President Obama got offended. (I didn't see him call it unconstitutional, merely "offensive.") In practice, the "Syrians" (or migrants from elsewhere who bought Syrian documents from ISIL) were 97% Sunni; the Christian and Shia Syrians were sheltering with Assad, partly because Muslim migrants were murdering Christians in transit. The ISIL videos showing Islamic decapitations of Christians on the north shore of Africa provided further evidence of what Muslims were doing to Christians in transit, and dissuaded many Christians from attempting the journey.

The website iSideWith presented Democrats vs Republicans regarding Syria specifically, though in practice most of the migrants were single Muslim men and not necessarily Syrian, contrary to what the iSideWith questions might lead one to believe. Even with that, any voter considering the major parties' positions on spreading Islam would likely know of Hillary Clinton's demands to increase the spread of Islam on behalf of her Saudi clients (indeed, Hillary's War was the major factor driving Muslims into NATO at that time) vs Donald Trump's suggestion to stop it. It was a clear choice, and the Democrats who expressed concern based on polls were overruled, and we saw the results.

I haven't seen Democrats acknowledge any need to change the platform in order to win. To the contrary, Democrats seem to follow the pattern of JoeyJoeJoeJr/Tatupu70/LeonDurham: call everyone liars, claim Russia stole the election, and double down on the same things that lost last time. So, I don't foresee a blue wave, but time will tell. I did hope Democrats might get tired of losing and consider changing the agenda, but I don't see that happening yet. Maybe another midterm loss might do it, otherwise 2020.
202   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 4:50pm  

curious2 says
Hillary Clinton campaigned on increasing the spread of Islam in emulation of Angela Merkel, and John Conyers and other Democrats demanded even more, and Democrats lost.


Nope. Taking refugees does not equal increasing the spreading of Islam. That is another lie.

Spreading Islam implies actively encouraging people to convert to Islam. That is most certainly not part of the Dem platform and nothing that Clinton campaigned on.
203   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 4:55pm  

curious2 says
I haven't seen Democrats acknowledge any need to change the platform in order to win. To the contrary, Democrats seem to follow the pattern of JoeyJoeJoeJr/Tatupu70/LeonDurham: call everyone liars, claim Russia stole the election, and double down on the same things that lost last time. So, I don't foresee a blue wave, but time will tell. I did hope Democrats might get tired of losing and consider changing the agenda, but I don't see that happening yet. Maybe another midterm loss might do it, otherwise 2020.


I don't call everyone liars, just those that lie. Unfortunately, that does cover Trump and a lot of his cultists.

Actually Dems learned the most important lesson of 2016--don't nominate bad candidates that don't represent the party.

I do agree with Patrick's point from a different thread that Dems need to highlight their platform that they are the party of labor, however. That has been a winning strategy.
204   cali   2018 Aug 19, 5:47pm  

LeonDurham says
Taking refugees does not equal increasing the spreading of Islam.


Actually, it does.

Islam spreads when Muslims infect other people with these ideas:

1. Muslims have been wronged throughout history and should feel resentment. Resentment is the sole mood of the Koran.
2. Muslims then have the right, just because they are Muslims, to murder non-Muslims men, take their property, and enslave and rape the women and children.
3. Islam is a just and fair religion because it allows select non-Muslims (Christians and Jews) to bow and submit and pay an annual ransom to keep their lives and property.

I am not exaggerating or misrepresenting anything. That is Islam in a nutshell, officially documented and easily discovered with a little searching, and it has been a very successful algorithm for those who wish to justify robbery, rape, and murder just like Mohammed did.

Islam is the opposite of all Western values. It does not belong here. It is violently intolerant of all other religions.
205   curious2   2018 Aug 19, 6:15pm  

LeonDurham says
Spreading Islam implies


No, that is a lie. Spreading it can be and is usually accomplished by migration, i.e. Hijrah. Read about the original Islamic "refugees," and what happened to the people of Yathrib, who made the horrible mistake of importing them. Within 5 years of the "perfect" and exemplary Mohamad's arrival, he and his followers had killed, exiled, or enslaved the entire original population. That is actually the Islamic history, though "justified" with Mohamad hearing imaginary voices from Gabriel, and other lies.

BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least to visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.
206   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:15pm  

cali says
Actually, it does.


Not sure how anyone can say that taking in persecuted refugees = spreading Islam. I think the real argument that needs to be made is that Islam is not a religion that the US recognizes due to its violent nature. It would make all the decisions much easier. Not sure why that is never discussed.
207   curious2   2018 Aug 19, 6:16pm  

LeonDurham says
that is never discussed.


It is discussed, including on PatNet, so that is another lie from you. As candidate Trump said, Islam hates us. It is a totalitarian doctrine that commands the violent overthrow of our government, and hides behind the beard of a religion.

LeonDurham says
refugees


When you attempt to visit Medina, please ask KSA why they don't take in the allegedly persecuted Muslim refugees. If you recall, KSA's "contribution" was to offer "charitably" to build Wahabi mosques for them, in NATO countries. Meanwhile, Hillary's War on behalf of her Saudi and corporate clients was the very force driving many of those Muslims into those Muslim countries, thus spreading Islam, which she campaigned on escalating.
208   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 19, 6:20pm  

curious2 says
BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.


No, it's no lie. There are already Muslims in the US so adding more is not spreading anything.


curious2 says
BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.


Not sure what you are even trying to say here. I'm not pro-Muslim. I'm pro--US staying true to the Constitution and Bill of Rights. See my previous post--declare that Islam is not a recognized religion due to its violent nature.
210   FortWayne   2018 Aug 19, 9:48pm  

Leon do you understand a difference between some Muslims and too many? Few are a minority which has to immerse. Too many and they change the country.

LeonDurham says
curious2 says
BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.


No, it's no lie. There are already Muslims in the US so adding more is not spreading anything.


curious2 says
BTW, today, Medina (FKA Yathrib) is off limits to non-Muslims. Why don't you demand a right to immigrate to KSA, or at least visit Medina? You might learn something about your lies.


Not sure what you are even trying to say here. I'm not pro-Muslim. I'm pro--US staying true to the Constitution and Bill of Rights. See my previous post--declare that Islam is not a recognized religion due to its violent nature.
211   Rin   2018 Aug 19, 10:18pm  

LeonDurham says
See my previous post--declare that Islam is not a recognized religion due to its violent nature.


Did you flunk out of law school or something?

Here's the Establishment Clause ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Establishment_Clause

Excerpt: "The Establishment Clause is a limitation placed upon the United States Congress preventing it from passing legislation respecting an establishment of religion. The second half of the Establishment Clause inherently prohibits the government from preferring any one religion over another. While the Establishment Clause does prohibit Congress from preferring or elevating one religion over another, it does not prohibit the government's entry into the religious domain to make accommodations for religious observances and practices in order to achieve the purposes of the Free Exercise Clause. "

In other words, society needs to realize that Islam is in fact, a religion, derived from ancient Arabia, today, known as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Unless some anthropologist can prove this wrong, it stands as a fact.

And since the 1965 Immigration Act, the US govt stopped discriminating against race & skin color during immigration procedures, unlike before. So in order to protect the Cambodian & Vietnamese Buddhists, the Indian & Nepalese Hindus, along with the South American Catholics, the US needs to vet out migration from nation-states, known to harbor Islamists, a.k.a Muslim majority nations.

Is this so difficult to figure out?
212   curious2   2018 Aug 19, 10:23pm  

Rin says
Establishment Clause


...does not really apply in the context of non-resident aliens outside the USA. Nothing in the establishment clause gives foreign Muslims a right to immigrate or even visit, much less a right to subsidies as "refugees." Islam commands believers to go to Mecca, in KSA; a travel ban against entering the USA does not prohibit that.

The place for Muslim migrants to go would be KSA, since they are commanded to go there anyway. KSA, being already Islamic, doesn't need more Muslims, so KSA uses Clinton & Merkel to send them into NATO instead.
213   Rin   2018 Aug 19, 10:29pm  

curious2 says
...does not really apply in the context of non-resident aliens. Nothing in the establishment clause gives foreign Muslims a right to immigrate or even visit, much less a right to subsidies as "refugees." A travel ban does not prevent foreign Muslims from exercising their religion, which BTW commands them to go to Mecca, which is in KSA.


My point was that LeonDurham wanted the US govt to officially declare that "Islam not a recognized religion" when in fact, the US govt does not have that authority. Plus, zero anthropologists would even attempt such a trite argument.

Instead, the only hope the US has is to prevent entrants from Muslim majority nation-states into the US which does a couple of things, one, minimize the Orlando Shooter repeaters, and two, allow the entrance of Chileans, Vietnamese, & Koreans, since it's not about race/color but instead, a propensity for exporting violent ideologies like Islam.
214   curious2   2018 Aug 19, 10:35pm  

Rin says
violent ideologies like Islam.


That's the key, IMO. US law has long excluded advocates of a totalitarian doctrine, and people who advocate the violent overthrow of our government. Islam fits both categories. Whether it's a religion is irrelevant. A Muslim does not have a right to cut off your head, even though his religion commands him to do it. The USA has every right to stop totalitarians and advocates of violence at the border, even a duty to do so, regardless of whether the foreigners' motives are religious or secular.

Even domestically, governments can prohibit murder, even though that prohibits part of Islam. The establishment clause does not preclude laws of general application. It would be interesting to see Muslims argue that the law against murder prohibits them from exercising their religion, e.g. honor killings. They would probably get support from some on PatNet.
215   Rin   2018 Aug 19, 10:52pm  

curious2 says
Even domestically, governments can prohibit murder, even though that prohibits part of Islam. The establishment clause does not preclude laws of general application. It would be interesting to see Muslims argue that the law against murder prohibits them from exercising their religion, e.g. honor killings.


And that's fine because domestically ... murder, extortion, & kidnapping are already on the books so in effect, it's a matter of local & federal agencies doing their job and not kowtowing to some idiot Imam cult leaders, who feel that they can advocate mass violence at their mosques w/o being picked up by the police. Realize, the same goes for PatNet, if someone here tells anyone to knock someone off, that person can be charged for a crime.

curious2 says
The USA has every right to stop totalitarians and advocates of violence at the border, even a duty to do so, regardless of whether the foreigners' motives are religious or secular.


Yes, which is why Leon's argument that this was racism was a Straw Man. So far, I'm yet to hear of Cambodian Buddhists immigrating to the US to blow up buses and shopping centers.
216   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 20, 6:42am  

curious2 says
It is discussed, including on PatNet, so that is another lie from you. As candidate Trump said, Islam hates us. It is a totalitarian doctrine that commands the violent overthrow of our government, and hides behind the beard of a religion.


OK--point me to a discussion of declaring that Islam a=is not a religion. Perhaps I missed it.
217   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 20, 6:45am  

Rin says
Did you flunk out of law school or something?



lol. I referenced the Establishment Clause earlier in my posts so obviously not. Perhaps you need a primer on reading comprehension.


Rin says
Excerpt: "The Establishment Clause is a limitation placed upon the United States Congress preventing it from passing legislation respecting an establishment of religion. The second half of the Establishment Clause inherently prohibits the government from preferring any one religion over another. While the Establishment Clause does prohibit Congress from preferring or elevating one religion over another, it does not prohibit the government's entry into the religious domain to make accommodations for religious observances and practices in order to achieve the purposes of the Free Exercise Clause. "

In other words, society needs to realize that Islam is in fact, a religion, derived from ancient Arabia, today, known as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Unless some anthropologist can prove this wrong, it stands as a fact.



No, your "in other words" is not at all a summation of the prior clause. If one declares that Islam is NOT a religion, clearly one is not preferring one religion over another. That should be obvious. That is the entire purpose behind declaring that it's not a religion.
218   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 20, 6:47am  

Rin says
My point was that LeonDurham wanted the US govt to officially declare that "Islam not a recognized religion" when in fact, the US govt does not have that authority.


OK-that may be true, but what is the law that defines the requirements for an established religion that the US must recognize?
219   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 20, 6:49am  

Rin says
Yes, which is why Leon's argument that this was racism was a Straw Man. So far, I'm yet to hear of Cambodian Buddhists immigrating to the US to blow up buses and shopping centers.



And that's why I would NEVER and did NEVER make such an argument. Please do not put words in my mouth (or post in this case).


#1--we're talking about religion, not race. Why in the world you would think I ever said anything about racism is beyond me.
#2--I've simply commented on the law
220   Rin   2018 Aug 20, 9:25am  

LeonDurham says
That is the entire purpose behind declaring that it's not a religion.


So an expert panel (pick any of the universities a/o think tanks of the globe) of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists are going to say that 'Islam is NOT a religion of the ppls of Arabia'? So who was the First Caliphate, Abu Bakr, aside from being a believer in the visions of the prophet Mohamed? If that's not a religion, which really is little more than an oversized cult, then what is?

Wasn't that essentially Paul of Tarsas's role, when he spread the stories of Jesus throughout the ethnic Greek majority Anatolia and the rest of the Roman Empire? And at least the first Caliphate knew Mohamed in person whereas Paul only saw Jesus in a vision, while he was having a nervous breakdown near Damascus.

This is basically the Ignatius Loyola technique of the middle ages ...

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ignatius_of_Loyola

Iggy said: "what I see as white is black, if the hierarchic Church defines it thus."

Sorry, that doesn't fly in the modern world. That's called denial.

Today, the definition is clear ... Islam is a religion but a religion of cultural [ see Arabic culture ] expansion & violence. Hence, not being Arabians, we (meaning the west) do not want their values and customs in our society.

So yes, the US govt can restrict immigration from Islamic majority countries, and domestically, toss Imams in jail for advocating violence on the local populations.
221   LeonDurham   2018 Aug 20, 9:49am  

Rin says
So yes, the US govt can restrict immigration from Islamic majority countries, and domestically, toss Imams in jail for advocating violence on the local populations.


I agree with this. Unfortunately, Trump opened his big mouth and declared that he was going to ban Musliims, not ban people from certain countries. Therefore, even when the directive was written to ban people from certain countries, courts have ruled that his intention is clearly to ban Muslims, which they find to be unconstitutional.

Rin says
So an expert panel (pick any of the universities a/o think tanks of the globe) of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists are going to say that 'Islam is NOT a religion of the ppls of Arabia'? So who was the First Caliphate, Abu Bakr, aside from being a believer in the visions of the prophet Mohamed? If that's not a religion, which really is little more than an oversized cult, then what is?


Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts? I've not seen anything that sets a legal standard, so that's an honest question.
223   rdm   2018 Aug 20, 10:17am  

LeonDurham says
Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts?


The IRS and the courts seem to determine what is a "legitimate" religion. The IRS determines tax exempt status (my opinion is this should be revoked for all religions) I would guess they have written criteria for this, but don't know. I remember years ago the Native American religion that used peyote as part of its, in my opinion, legit religious ceremony lost in court when trying to get a waiver from the law outlawing peyote's use and possession. I think there has subsequently been some accommodation. Clearly the law as it is interpreted favors established so called mainstream religions. Islam falls into that category whether you like it or not. Some countries such as Russia have "officially" recognized religions and they do not recognize others, they banned Jehovah's Witness a few years ago. I don't believe U.S. can do this due to the establishment clause.
224   Misc   2018 Aug 20, 10:28am  

I think that the republicans will lose a few seats in the House, but will not lose the majority. They should probably keep the majority in the Senate, as well. The economy has improved so much under Trump that people will vote their pocket books. The job gains under Obama were all part time jobs. There have been millions of full time jobs created under Trump and many part time jobs converted to full time (these are not fully reflected in the job numbers). It is not just a continuation of a trend, the full time jobs now being created mean a much better economy.
225   Rin   2018 Aug 20, 10:46am  

rdm says
LeonDurham says
Is that the standard for legally recognizing a religion? A panel of experts?


The IRS and the courts seem to determine what is a "legitimate" religion.


Which loops back to the main point, what is our judiciary system?... aside from being a panel of legally trained experts, albeit, over represented by places like Harvard or Yale Law Schools.

And yes, these judges will defer to the expert opinions of anthropologists, historians, and political scientists as to whether or not Islam is a religion or not. And since most would concur that it was a religion, then that pathway won't work.

Let's just hope that they reach out from beyond Harvard and Yale. That's too much Ivy league incest.
227   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 23, 5:13pm  

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gop-poised-midterm-wipeout-apos-130000367.html

Politics
GOP poised for midterm wipeout as 'blue wave' scenario gives Democrats a 12-point lead: NBC-WSJ poll

John Harwood,CNBC 11 hours ago

"The new NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey, taken six weeks before Americans head to the polls, shows Democrats leading Republicans by 52 percent to 40 percent for control of Congress.
If it holds, that 12 percentage point margin would suggest a "blue wave" large enough to switch control of not just the House but also the Senate."
229   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Sep 24, 3:56pm  

Republican Party Favorability highest in 7 years:

Republican favorability at 45%, Democrats at 44%
Democrats generally have had the upper hand in favorability ratings
Major gains for Republican Party within the party, including leaners
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/242906/republican-party-favorability-highest-seven-years.aspx
230   Shaman   2018 Sep 24, 4:13pm  

This thread will be fun to visit in Six weeks. I’m glad I got the first comment. On record in May for RED WAVE!
231   lostand confused   2018 Sep 24, 5:08pm  

I am predicting repubs will hold the house in smaller numbers and increase senate. Lets see. Me thinks dems overplayed their hand with kavanaugh -next will be Hilalry ina dominatrix suite claiming Kavanugh stiffed her fee.
232   HeadSet   2018 Sep 24, 8:06pm  

One race here in Va you may find interesting. The Virginia 2nd District seat would normally be a shoe-in for the ex Navy SEAL incumbent, but his campaign staff did a little fraud helping a primaried out Democrat collect signatures so she could run as an Independent. That would split the Democrat votes and help the incumbent win. If the incumbent loses, (not sure what the odds are) it will be as a reaction to this fraud. A court case threw out the collected signatures, so the Independent is not on the ballot.
233   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Oct 4, 10:49am  

Now I'm positive there won't be a blue wave.

Last week, I sued @realDonaldTrump & @senatemajldr to stop the unconstitutional Kavanaugh confirmation process. Today I filed a motion for a restraining order against Trump and McConnell to force immediate disclosure of the Kavanaugh record they’ve been working so hard to hide.

— Jeff Merkley (@JeffMerkley) October 3, 2018



The Democrats shot themselves in the foot REALLY badly. Their only hope to stop Kavanaugh's appointment, but at this point I don't think it matters.

Imagine, the Media no longer controls the narrative.

"Hit the Identity/Rape/Toxic White Male button again!"
"I can't"
"Why not?"
"It's jammed to the on position!"
234   Tenpoundbass   2018 Oct 4, 10:50am  

The blue Squirt!
235   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Oct 4, 11:07am  

Holy crap, look at Cramer vs. Heitkamp. A nobody is beating the crap out of a well-known Senator, RCP average is 8.7 pts - some have him leading by double digits!

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