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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


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2018 May 14, 8:51am   79,473 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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610   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm  

I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.

Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
611   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm  

Goran_K says
FortWayneIndiana says
Goran_K says
I’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.


did you guys bet money?


I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.

Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.


Nice bet
612   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.


Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?


He owes me at least $100.

I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
613   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?

I can accept any.


Is this legal?


Yeah very much so.
614   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:09pm  

For a minute I forgot how big of an asshole Goran is.
615   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:10pm  

Pmarcus says
I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.

Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.


lol okay. You bet that it was 3 and asked if I was “sure it wasn’t”.

Now you’re changing the bet.

Okay fine. If it’s 5 flips, you owe me $1000 right? Confirm please.
616   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:12pm  

marcus says
For a minute I forgot how big of an asshole Goran is.


lol
617   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:15pm  

Marcus? Let’s throw down homie.
618   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm  

Okay I accept marcuses modified, changed small time $100 wager. I usually don’t get out of bed for less than $2k but Marcus convinced me. Bet confirmed.
619   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.


Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?


He owes me at least $100.

I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.


I never saw Marcus confirm any wager

He considered your reputation and wisely asked how he could hold you to the wager because you giving your word isn’t worth much


I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
620   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm  

Aphroman says
FortWayneIndiana says
Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?

I can accept any.


Is this legal?


Yeah very much so.


How do you figure?

@Patrick you going to take FortWayneIndiana word that facilitating a wager is very much so legal on your site?


It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
621   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

Goran_K says
Now you’re changing the bet.


I have a screen shot of

marcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?
622   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:


I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
623   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:


I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
624   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:21pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
Now you’re changing the bet.


I have a screen shot of

marcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?


What are you talking about? The Dems have not flipped a senate seat yet.
625   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:26pm  

IT was 51 - 49

this says it's now 53 - 47 .

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?

What you take the gain for republicans and add it to the loss for democrats to come up with 4 ?

Wtf ?

Republicans will pick up either 2 or 3 seats in the senate, no ?
626   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:29pm  

marcus says
That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?



NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

There's still the potential to pick up Montana, too, which would be 5.

And Arizona, which isn't really a pick up, but Flake was a major NeverTrump PITA, so it's kind of a pickup if Sinema is beaten off.
627   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:30pm  

Marcus just pay me my $100. Scott was the 4th flipped seat.
628   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:42pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.


That would be 3. 54 - 51 = 3 OH, is it becasue they aren't counting Nevada ? Why is that ?

No, that's not it. I still don't get it. But then I haven't been watching the tube.
629   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:53pm  

Marcus:

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.
630   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:55pm  

Why does 538 have it as most likely to end up being net gain of 3 and NYT (your link) shows it at 53 republicans now, up from 51 ? with an equal number of undeclared on each side, or perhaps one more for republicans.
631   NDrLoR   2018 Nov 6, 9:56pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Florida

Headline:

DeSantis defeats Gillum in RACIALLY CHARGED Florida campaign that followed Trump’s playbook

No one saw that coming, did they? In other words, he was the perfect candidate except for his race?
632   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:57pm  

Well see in the end. It was 51 republicans in the senate yesterday, I think it will be 54 when this is all over, maybe only 53. I'm out.
633   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 10:01pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Marcus:

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.


lol I posted the same list.
634   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 10:13pm  

I’m surprised at how close James and Hugin got to flipping the seats in their states. Both of those guys got out spent like 10 to 1.
635   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 10:24pm  

Aphroman says
Damn Ocasio Cortez won the House Seat in NY, i bet that triggers millions of SJW Trumpcucks once they catch wind of it.


I disagree. Ocasio Cortez can only help especially if she gets tv time.
636   CBOEtrader   2018 Nov 7, 4:25am  

Herdingcats says
Aphroman says
WOW 114 million voters hit the voting booths today.


I'd say blue tsunami, if they had taken all of Congress. Does just taking back the house qualify as a blue wave?


Its less than historical average so no, not even close.

Still unfortunate D's won the house.
637   marcus   2018 Nov 7, 6:30am  

So what is the net pick up in Senate seats for republicans ?

Is that known yet ?
638   anonymous   2018 Nov 7, 6:37am  

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.

Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.
639   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 6:48am  

Aphroman says
Damn Ocasio Cortez won the House Seat in NY, i bet that triggers millions of SJW Trumpcucks once they catch wind of it.


Do not think most Republicans would care between her and the the Democrat she defeated in the primary.

But this may bring something interesting to watch. We may see a battle between the Democratic Socialists and the Democratic Geriatrics. Is Ocasio Cortez going to rally the other "young" Democrats behind ideas like abolish ICE, free college, and Universal Free Health Care, or is Old Nancy and crew going to swat her down? Even though Ocasio Cortez took out Nancy's main contender in the Primary, maybe this new crop of Democrats would insist on a different Speaker this time over Nancy.
640   marcus   2018 Nov 7, 6:49am  

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
641   Shaman   2018 Nov 7, 9:41am  

The Democrats in the house may now set the agenda. Perhaps they’ll be better at that than the GOP was. Perhaps they’ll spend all their energy on “investigation” of everyone they don’t like.
The first will reward them, and Trump will work with them. The second will lead to punishment in 2020.

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.
642   mell   2018 Nov 7, 9:54am  

Quigley says
The Democrats in the house may now set the agenda. Perhaps they’ll be better at that than the GOP was. Perhaps they’ll spend all their energy on “investigation” of everyone they don’t like.
The first will reward them, and Trump will work with them. The second will lead to punishment in 2020.

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.


Yep. That's why the market is up as well. In anticipation that nobody can point fingers anymore and that there actually may be some bi-partisan work getting done while volatility is out with the checks and balances. Dems have a chance to make up for their disastrous results in 2016 if they go back to more heartland type Democrats towards the middle such as Collins from ME. And kick out the shrieking batshit nutter cat-lady pound-me-too harpies. Let's see if they can do it, even Perez yesterday sounded halfway decent.
643   anonymous   2018 Nov 7, 10:07am  

marcus says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5
644   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 10:10am  

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.
645   anonymous   2018 Nov 7, 10:13am  

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
marcus says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5
Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.
646   mell   2018 Nov 7, 11:05am  

HeadSet says
I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.


There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders. It's definitely a risk that policies go mainstream by going bipartisan, but Trump also energized Repub cucks to be more self-confident. Ultimately you have to work with what your constituents want, and I don't see that years of gridlock would be seen in Trump's favor. If it ever becomes unlivable should there be - which I don't project - a leftoid wave destroying the MAGA, you have options now since parts of Europe have gone more MAGA than Trump. Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, all beautiful countries, rich of economical and natural (if you're not married) beauty and MAGA leaders. Or wait til Ballsonaro has cleaned up Brazil. Gotta think global these days, these countries would all love more straight white pillars of society.
647   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 11:20am  

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching (save WV).
648   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 7, 11:24am  

Quigley says

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.


Damn Quigley, you have been on fire with some good observations. Noticing the punishment for Kavanaugh, anywhere the Senate Contest was anything like a fight, was spot on. Manchin was the only Dem to vote FOR Kavanaugh and even though he was in Red WV, he got re-elected.

Trump pre-positioned a bit of a talking point before the election: A promise of a 10% middle class tax cut on top of the big tax cut that was just implemented.

For the next two years "We wanted to pass a 10% tax cut, but the Democratic Congress won't allow it" if the Democrats act feisty, and as further motivation for Republicans and Fiscal-minded Independents in 2020.

And yes, now the Dems own the budget.

I wonder if the Democrat Deficit Hawks will still be screeching going forward
649   mell   2018 Nov 7, 11:25am  

HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.

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