patrick.net

WookieMan says

I was skeptical at first, but if you're 60+, just stay the fuck home.

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

The real issue is slowing the total growth out there which for the U.S. has gone from 1625 on March 12, to 33,000 now.

4 days ago it was 9,000

Sure, older people should be more careful, but just like many younger people, many of them will get it. But if all of us that get it, get it later, then the system can better handle it, and there will probably be better treatments, lowering the death rate for everyone.

I think watching deaths is probably the best indicator since testing is catching up, giving possibly exaggerated growth rates based on confirmed cases.

"official" deaths in the US have gone from 41 to 419 in the same 11 day period I mentioned above, a lower growth rate, but super high in this past day. I think both slow down a lot soon from this social distancing. Certainly by the end of this next weekend or so we will see a slow down in the growth rate.

Testing Now Available to Anyone. Results in about 30 hours.

Well, since the world's richest nation failed to gear up for the pandemic (we had PLENTY of warning) - people have had to come up with their own ways to survive.

Well, I figured out a way to get a Corona Virus test.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200322001151325?section=national/diplomacy

Korea is now testing everyone coming from Europe or from any infected area.

Also note that EVERYONE is wearing masks (the #1 social distancing device and preventer of virus spread). And we have pretty much zero masks. Hmmm...

So get on the bus (airbus), forget about us and fly to Korea! Or tie a yellow...

Just tell them you came from Europe and you will be tested. They will take your contact information and send the results of your test via email. Free.

Then fly back to the USA. Flights are $500 to $600 round trip. Cheap given you can't be tested in the USA (unless you are connected).

Yep, it will take you 48 hours or so - but faster than anywhere in the USA.

Which brings me to my next topic: Why do so many athletes, movie stars, congressmen / women, etc. have been confirmed with the virus?

Because they actually have access to testing (even without ANY symptoms). For the rest of us we have to be hospitalized to get a test. Sad.

:
Indeed

GlobalRoamer says

Which brings me to my next topic: Why do so many athletes, movie stars, congressmen / women, etc. have been confirmed with the virus?

Because they actually have access to testing (even without ANY symptoms). For the rest of us we have to be hospitalized to get a test. Sad.

Yep that was my experience!
Unless you blew a gay tranny in China last week, or you all rich and famous, NO TEST FOR YOU!

marcus says

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

The real issue is slowing the total growth out there which for the U.S. has gone from 1625 on March 12, to 33,000 now.

4 days ago it was 9,000

None of these stats matter. If we had tested everyone in the country over the last 30 days, the infected cases would be mind boggling. But, the death rate for those of all ages would probably plummet under 1% and the chance of dying from this at age 40 is probably 0.02% because the positive test increase.

I was at a 900 person event 15 days ago, not including staff and other support. There's zero chance someone in that room was NOT infect. It wouldn't shock me if 100 people got it from that event alone and none of them die or will have had symptoms. It's a strong virus on the weak and old, otherwise it's not that big of a deal.

And yes, we need to protect that class, weak and old. Making everyone chill at home is not the proper response though. I've said this in other threads, but we've with 100% certainty killed more people through the reaction to date than the virus itself. Once we have a full two weeks of shut downs, the financial effects alone will have people hanging from garage rafters across the country.

marcus says

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

These are just confirmed cases though, but what else do we have to go on. Shows 2.6% for someone 65 and .31% for someone 40:


If you count the total number of deaths is pretty small.

Looks like Europe has peaked folks. We should be next in a few days or weeks. Good news.

marcus says

Death rate might be something like 3% for someone 65 instead of 1% (or less) for someone 40.

From a peer-reviewed Imperial College paper:



Below age of 40 people are very safe.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/03/20/why-italy/

Why Italy?

* Hundreds of thousands of Chinese immigrants now live both legally and illegally in Italy, with 300K legally registered and many more illegal.

* Italy recently entered into a new economic partnership with China called “One belt, One road”

* China has revitalized northern Italian ports in order to transport goods more efficiently to the rest of Europe

*The mayor of Florence initiated a social media campaign called “Hug a Chinese” using Chinese produced video as an engine to dispel the “racism” against the Chinese in Italy

Thirty years ago, Italy saw the beginnings of what would become a serious issue with illegal immigration. What was surprising, was that the immigrants couldn’t just walk over a border to enter the country, they had to flock from China. It began with Italians hiring the Chinese off the books at cheap wages to work making garments in towns and villages renowned for their craftmanship, and morphed into Italians seeing the Chinese learn how to do it faster and cheaper; often times watching as their family owned businesses were shuttered because they were outbid. The Chinese took over the Italian craft and made it their own. What didn’t change was the coveted “Made in Italy” label. The NY Times began documenting the trend in 2010 writing:

Over the years, Italy learned the difficult lesson that it could no longer compete with China on price. And so, its business class dreamed, Italy would sell quality, not quantity. For centuries, this walled medieval city just outside of Florence has produced some of the world’s finest fabrics, becoming a powerhouse for “Made in Italy” chic.

And then, China came here.

Chinese laborers, first a few immigrants, then tens of thousands, began settling in Prato in the late 1980s. They transformed the textile hub into a low-end garment manufacturing capital, enriching many, stoking resentment and prompting recent crackdowns that in turn have brought cries of bigotry and hypocrisy.

The city is now home to the largest concentration of Chinese in Europe; some legal, many more not. Here in the heart of Tuscany, Chinese laborers work round the clock in some 3,200 businesses making low-end clothes, shoes and accessories, often with materials imported from China, for sale at midprice and low-end retailers worldwide.

The trend continued as whole villages in Italy became Chinese villages, with the Chinese displacing the Italians who lived there, creating their own neighborhoods, and pushing out decades of Italian family owned business. They weren’t known for following the rules. It caused much local consternation; the Italians were forced to pay their taxes and follow the employment guidelines, while the Chinese seemed to have built flourishing enterprises by skirting the rules, treating their people poorly, and engaging in rich human smuggling operations, to boot. There was little accountability for the Chinese, and much for the native Italians.

Most of Europe will come in around 10%-15%, some below 10%. Here in the US it looks like only NY and NJ are still on accelerated or steady growth.

Korea, Italy, and the Netherlands have all reported that the number of new cases has dropped.

But US numbers got much worse overnight, mostly because of New York.

Harvey Weinstein gets back in the news by the only means possible at this moment. https://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Harvey-Weinstein-Tests-Positive-for-Coronavirus-15149718.php

georgeliberte says

Harvey Weinstein gets back in the news by the only means possible at this moment. https://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Harvey-Weinstein-Tests-Positive-for-Coronavirus-15149718.php

How the fuck did he get his hands on tests which are still scarce? While being behind bars too boot?

Gilead Suspends Access to Remdesivir Due to 'Overwhelming Demand' for the Experimental COVID-19 Treatment

Probably a sign that it's working.

TEOTWAWKI says

georgeliberte says

Harvey Weinstein gets back in the news by the only means possible at this moment. https://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Harvey-Weinstein-Tests-Positive-for-Coronavirus-15149718.php

How the fuck did he get his hands on tests which are still scarce?

Their not scarce. Anyone in LA fitting risk groups including those over 65 can get tested

CovfefeButDeadly says

Their not scarce. Anyone in LA fitting risk groups including those over 65 can get tested

Interesting. The media which made so much noise about test scarcity are not in a big hurry to inform that the scarcity is over.

TEOTWAWKI says

CovfefeButDeadly says

Their not scarce. Anyone in LA fitting risk groups including those over 65 can get tested

Interesting. The media which made so much noise about test scarcity are not in a big hurry to inform that the scarcity is over.

I know Shaman has some issues with getting tested, but I've yet to know anyone personally that hasn't been able to get tested if they wanted to. I don't know how or why, IL had labs that could handle the testing from day one though supposedly. So it might just be lab capability or equipment in the area? I don't claim to know, but I think that's the big issue with this virus. Lots of shit being thrown at the wall to see what sticks and no one knows what to believe. It feeds into people's panic.

TEOTWAWKI says

CovfefeButDeadly says

Their not scarce. Anyone in LA fitting risk groups including those over 65 can get tested

Interesting. The media which made so much noise about test scarcity are not in a big hurry to inform that the scarcity is over.

Google it and all the news is old, even the LA times reports from yesterday. US media is absolute garbage.

There are tests galore for anyone with symptoms or at risk who has been exposed.

TEOTWAWKI says

How the fuck did he get his hands on tests which are still scarce? While being behind bars too boot?

"Harvey Weinstein died today of Coronavirus. He rolled off the prison hospital bed and his neck caught an electric cord, which explains the markings on his neck."

Meanwhile, Democrats hold up Stimulus Package in order to sneak in controversial legislation including same day voter registration, which of course gives election officials little chance to investigate fraud or ineligibility due to other factors like felonies or non-citizenship.

CovfefeButDeadly says

TEOTWAWKI says

CovfefeButDeadly says

Their not scarce. Anyone in LA fitting risk groups including those over 65 can get tested

Interesting. The media which made so much noise about test scarcity are not in a big hurry to inform that the scarcity is over.

Google it and all the news is old, even the LA times reports from yesterday. US media is absolute garbage.

Here are a bunch of places doing testing in the Bay Area:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Where-can-I-get-a-coronavirus-test-in-the-Bay-15136054.php

Yes, the media is deliberately stoking panic for political reasons. And because attention is their currency.

NoCoupForYou says

Meanwhile, Democrats hold up Stimulus Package in order to sneak in controversial legislation including same day voter registration, which of course gives election officials little chance to investigate fraud or ineligibility due to other factors like felonies or non-citizenship.

Dems are complete fucking assholes!!!

TEOTWAWKI says

I'm sure the data is correct, but I don't intend for my 15-18 year old to have left the nest. It would be interesting to see 19-29 numbers. I'll be 48-49 when my youngest should technically leave the nest. So even if something similar comes around then, I'd still be very low risk for death. 25-29 year old kids, sure, I'd be more at risk being 55-60.

Do Italians have kids later in life or something? Does grandpa and granny stay with the kids as they slowly die for support on their end and to help with grandkids? I have never been, so I have a jaded and inaccurate view of Europe. For some reason I feel like there's a stereotype where the young either live with or visit the old a lot.

WookieMan says

I have never been, so I have a jaded and inaccurate view of Europe. For some reason I feel like there's a stereotype where the young either live with or visit the old a lot.

I've been to Italy but only as a tourist, so my first-hand knowledge of their typical living situation is pretty much non-existent.

There is now a 'Now' and 'Yesterday' button to compare for the US - very useful.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Trump's press conference was FINALLY where he needed to go today. Fucking A finally.

True fatality percentage keeps falling as more information comes in:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

Enter the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.

Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org.

That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless.

Patrick says

That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless.

Demographics have to be accounted for as well on the cruise ship. Don't want to see my mom die, but the solution is just not seeing anyone above 60 and everyone stays clean. It's not that complicated. Glad Trump finally hinted that this cannot go on for months.

Have a trip planned to Mexico for the first week of June. My mom was going to watch my kids. Change of plans, we'll have to deal with it and figure something else out. It's not like this won't affect younger people regardless of everyone going back to work. Grandpa and granny were very big parts in many peoples lives as far as child care. They're gonna have to be out for a while.

A retired or disabled 60+ something person really should have ZERO expectation that the world will stop for them. Especially in cases where it was self induced (smoking, diabetes, etc).