patrick.net

Patrick says

Patrick says

And then:

2020 is going to go down in history as the worst fucking year of this fucking millennia so far

3% growth in SF, 10% in CA. The curve has flattened. Once NY/NJ peaks this will recede fast. Most of Europe anywhere between 3%-15% growth. They peaked a week or two ago. We're next.

Shaman says

2020 is going to go down in history as the worst fucking year of this fucking millennia so far

I'm negative, but not super negative. May 1st we need to open up regardless of the old people dying flu. No questions asked. If more people die so be it. Me included. If we're going to call it a war, treat it like one and everyone take on some god damn risk. The alternative is economic and likely physical death either way. This is coming from someone that doesn't even have to work right now and my wife doesn't need to either. But we need people working. 28 fucking days still.... I want a fucking burger and beer at a bar NOW.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238773

We're only seeing the effects of a first, maybe second wave. Evidence is that this thing keeps coming back, causing damage each time. Suppose it's 0.2% when you are young and healthy. Even over 40 years the prospect is not good. Now, suppose it causes permanent damage each time. 0.2% first time, 0.5% second time, so on... not good. I'm guessing around 4M year one, 8M year two, 16M year three, peaking at around 50M per year, then a similar step-down.

steverbeaver says

We're only seeing the effects of a first, maybe second wave. Evidence is that this thing keeps coming back, causing damage each time. Suppose it's 0.2% when you are young and healthy. Even over 40 years the prospect is not good. Now, suppose it causes permanent damage each time. 0.2% first time, 0.5% second time, so on... not good. I'm guessing around 4M year one, 8M year two, 16M year three, peaking at around 50M per year, then a similar step-down.

They'll have meds and vaccines after this season, given it recedes til the winter. Plenty of testing going on for different meds. Vaccine plus herd immunity will make this become like flu season.

Notice all the Governors, Mayors, etc. are all getting paychecks while forcing millions of people out of work.

None should get a dime.

In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness.

Booger says

Notice all the Governors, Mayors, etc. are all getting paychecks while forcing millions of people out of work.

None should get a dime.

All government workers. Specifically the non-essential ones. If your school district is doing remote learning, why da fuck we paying teachers full boat salary? They're gonna get the stimulus checks and keep their jobs and current pay in almost all cases. It's fucked up.

As I wrap my mind around this differently every day, WTF are government workers even eligible for stimulus if they haven't been laid off???? What the fucks?

WookieMan says

WTF are government workers even eligible for stimulus if they haven't been laid off????

And people collecting pensions from the government! What fucking hardship do they have? They likely have health benefits too. Nothing has changed for these people from 2 months ago until now besides all the fucking drama about this. There might already be one, but a movement needs to be started to stop government workers still employed from getting ANY stimulus from this. Most these fuckers like firefighters all have side gigs. They don't need more fucking money right now. God I'm pissed.

This is why stimulus and bailouts blow horse nuts and shouldn't be done.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.

A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.

China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.

Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”

Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238773

The only people who should be under "shelter in place" orders are those with one or more of these listed conditions; nobody else has any reason to be so-constrained. Everyone who has such a condition knows they do.

Then there was last night's Laura Ingraham show with an ICU doctor as a guest. He's had a decent number of patients wind up on vents with this virus. Every single one was overweight or obese and either diabetic or pre-diabetic.

Every
Single
One.

He's now started at admission treating all with hydroxychloroquine and Zpak and since starting that program immediately on admission says he has not had one wind up on a vent.

Anecdote? Yes.

Is 100% success unacceptable without a "double blind" study? May I remind you that to do such a study you have to kill people since you will consign some number of people to not get the drug and they will wind up on vents and die!

Why would any sane human being not want that count to be zero? If you do not instantly demand this happen across the medical system everywhere in the United States you are a murderous monster and deserve a Nuremberg-style outcome when we're done with this -- and as God is my witness you're going to get one too.

Are there any "Healthy At Any Size" screamers left or are you all on vents with most of you dying? Would anyone like to argue about the facts on this any more? I've only been on this kick since 2011 raising hell about it. I was on that track to become either diabetic or pre-diabetic and obese as well. I no longer am. Gee, that was a choice. Guess what -- it now has dramatically lowered my risk of winding up dead when, not if, I get this virus.

I do not owe you literal imprisonment in my home because of your voluntary choice.

But even for those who didn't make that choice we have options. We have an apparently effective treatment. We know what it is. It won't work for everyone but it sure looks like it works for almost everyone. If we use it that way then poof goes the "overload" claims and thus also poof goes any and all justification for "shelter in place", "lockdowns" and all other manner of bull****.

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

The fact that the evidence "comes from China" makes it suspect. I would prefer to see the results from South Korea, Japan, England, or Italy when those results are taken from mass testing that includes non-symptomatic people. The Chinese may have a motive in putting out "80% no symptoms" and thus "the virus has been around longer than suspected." By putting out these "facts," the Chinese can say CV-19 has been all over the world for some time, and only was noticed in Wuhan first.

Italy tested a whole small town and found that 50% to 75% of infected people there showed no symptoms. So it's consistent.

This is getting to be a real threat to our civil liberties:

https://twitchy.com/sarah-313035/2020/04/03/is-this-really-about-the-virus-anymore-crazy-footage-of-paddle-boarder-arrested-for-violating-california-stay-at-home-order-by-being-alone-on-the-ocean-video/

Italy tested a whole small town and found that 50% to 75% of infected people there showed no symptoms. So it's consistent.

Excellent! I would like to see research done on any correlation on items like age, smoker, overweight, etc on those who get symptoms and those who do not. They may find more good to know stuff similar to the ibuprofen discovery.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/after-mocking-trump-promoting-hydroxychloroquine-media-acknowleges-might-treat-coronavirus

Aren't most if not all viruses chinese in origin?
In this case calling it "the chinese virus" lacks specificity.
Patrick says

Numerous outlets including CNN, Buzzfeed, and The Washington Post have called the illness the “Wuhan coronavirus” or the “Chinese coronavirus.” But since President Donald Trump started calling it the “Chinese virus,” some of the same outlets have warned that such a name constitutes racist language.

Hausmeister T says

Good god this slob is part of the problem. Too dumb to clean up your fucking hands before making a meme? Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Vermont Cutting Off Supply Chain: Big Box Retailers Ordered to Cease In-Person Sales of Non-Essential Items.

https://accd.vermont.gov/press-releases/agency-commerce-and-community-development-directs-%E2%80%9Cbig-box%E2%80%9D-retailers-cease-person


I’m not one to be an alarmist, but this shit can bubble up to be some kind of civil war. If you take a bunch of people that are largely fine, tell them there’s a vague illness out there that’s basically the flu, put them out of work, try forcing them to stay home, and then cut off all their supplies, they’re going to riot at some point.

Plywood will soon be deemed non-essential items .. dem constituents are entitled to their 65" big screens and $150 sneakers in times like this

WookieMan says

Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Mine look worse on the regular, but I’m a mechanic so that’s natural.

Anecdotal reports from the front lines:

Jogged by a testing station around 9:30 am and it was completely empty. SF/CA got this as long as LA gets it under control. SF currently has about 500 cases for their roughly 1MM population.

Ant in Italy in her 70s had fever and cough for weeks and tested positive, but no pneumonia. After they gave her Zithromax she recovered instantly and has been fever free for almost 14 days. BF of similar age was admitted to the hospital with beginning pneumonia but also is recovering after getting Zithromax. Most have blood type 0 which may help according to initial studies.

Old people without masks or trash bag armor, who are being screamed at in Walmart, have died of stress heart attacks. They are being counted as Covid-19 deaths.

Shaman says

WookieMan says

Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Mine look worse on the regular, but I’m a mechanic so that’s natural.

Oh my finger nails get nasty too. If I'm going to make a meme or take a photo that was likely sent to other people, I'd at least clean up as best I can. That was more of the point. It was literally the first thing I noticed before reading what the meme was about.

The vast majority of the CA cases are in LA, 35% of total. The rest is doing relatively OK. SF grew by 6% yesterday, so curve is flattening more rapidly now in the bay area.

The initial dose of the virus seems to be very important:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/these-coronavirus-exposures-might-be-the-most-dangerous/ar-BB122vLd

The importance of viral dose is being overlooked in discussions of the coronavirus. As with any other poison, viruses are usually more dangerous in larger amounts. Small initial exposures tend to lead to mild or asymptomatic infections, while larger doses can be lethal.

From a policy perspective, we need to consider that not all exposures to the coronavirus may be the same. Stepping into an office building that once had someone with the coronavirus in it is not as dangerous as sitting next to that infected person for an hourlong train commute.

This may seem obvious, but many people are not making this distinction. We need to focus more on preventing high-dose infection.

Patrick says

This is why I was thinking that we should see growth in deaths drop before growth in total cases. But that's not what the experts say will happen. In any case you can watch the number of deaths, if you think that increased testing causing exaggerated numbers of new cases.

Probably only increased testing of asymptomatic cases would cause hat he's suggesting.