patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: .

Do the math.

OK, so at best it kills off 2% of the worlds population, we will still be too fucking crowded.

The stock market has changed its mind and no longer seems to think that coronavirus is the end of the world.

rdm says

The only way that holds is if the virus doesn't spread in the US.

Lol, the only way that doesnt hold true is if it doesnt hold true.

Yes, I am saying this wont spread in the US and/or some mitigating factor will stop the virus.

Assuming it is unstoppable is the unrealistic expectation that I am directly challenging.

We shall see whose expectation of reality plays out :) wouldnt be the first time I've been wrong

Heraclitusstudent says

Do the math

This is global warming alarmist type forecasting.

We dont know enough about the virus to "do the math". But sure if you take your back of the envelope math of 300 M Americans times your 1% deathrate (lolz) times almost any % of the population then we have a LOT of deaths.

Me thinks your model is as off as Al Gore.

Captain Crunch is more dangerous to public health than coronavirus.

Have you seen diabetes rates lately?

CBOEtrader says

Captain Crunch is more dangerous to public health than coronavirus.

Have you seen diabetes rates lately?

Yup. It's like CV is the only virus or disease going. Nah, diabetes and cancer no longer exist.

Fact is most our healthcare costs are due to keeping people alive that should be dead. My own father was one of those. It was a miserable existence for him. If you make it past 65-70 with relative good health, you've won the lottery. Very few people 65+ are all that highly functioning (yes they fucking exist before someone gets their undies in a knot).

Let's all be honest, a senior pandemic/epidemic right now might not be a bad thing?

WookieMan says

Let's all be honest, a senior pandemic/epidemic right now might not be a bad thing?

Wear a go-pro, then say that in polite public. Your video would go viral.

WookieMan says

Fact is most our healthcare costs are due to keeping people alive that should be dead.

The sick are the golden geese of the medical industry. End stage renal disease sufferers, diabetics, even HIV patients are absolute cash cows for the industry.

China's Wuhan closes coronavirus hospital as officials hail drop in new cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-closes-coronavirus-hospital-as-officials-hail-drop-in-new-cases-idUSKBN20P01K

Patrick says

The stock market has changed its mind and no longer seems to think that coronavirus is the end of the world.

Insiders cleaned out the suckers and bought the dip...same as it ever was.

Patrick says

China's Wuhan closes coronavirus hospital as officials hail drop in new cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-closes-coronavirus-hospital-as-officials-hail-drop-in-new-cases-idUSKBN20P01K

Is anyone really expecting more than 400 US deaths?

All of us are fools for even wasting time discussing this, unless you want to make money off of it.

This is a $$ 3.5 B brokerage using CV to sell insurance... just in case you wondered what our overlords do when the idiots run hither and fro

CBOEtrader says

All of us are fools for even wasting time discussing this, unless you want to make money off of it.

How can I make money off of this?

Heraclitusstudent says

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: 10 to 20 times more lethal.
2 - R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
3 - For the flu, around 1% of cases are severe enough to lead to people being hospitalized. For coronavirus, 13.8% cases are severe (meaning probably hospitalized), 4.7% are critical (Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). I don't look forward to experiencing respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure , even if I survive.
4 - we know the flu, and we know it will abate in March April. We don't know what will happen for coronavirus.

Do the math.

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-cuts-rates-by-50-basis-points-amid-coronavirus-concerns-150008506.html

Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points amid coronavirus concerns

In a few weeks when this is over are they going to raise it back?
This type of knee jerk overreaction is not what I want to see from the Fed.

How does lowering interest rates help fight a virus that is spreading?

zzyzzx says

In a few weeks when this is over are they going to raise it back?

No.

Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"

No surprise that Redditors blocked the post that contained a reference to this Study from last year - which has so far proven itself correct.

Right. Many of the US cases are repatriated ones. For a country with 330MM people they're doing quite well.

NoCoupForYou says

Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"

North Korea is suspiciously absent from that list.

zzyzzx says

North Korea is suspiciously absent from that list.

CV is no match for Kims firing brigade.

Heraclitusstudent says

R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.

It's slowly dawning on me that this thing just isn't going to be stopped.

It's more contagious than the flu and no one tries to stop the flu.

China tried with draconian measures and still failed.

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services. Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.

Longer term maybe we'll find a vaccine or drug.

Yep, it'll effect 1000s of Americans like it does every year. No big whoop.

Heraclitusstudent says

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services. Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.

Or we could always just vaccinate people

Scientists and 99% of Doctors: Wash your hands, stay hydrated, only wear a mask if you're sick, please stay home if you feel you're getting sick. This doesn't really kill anybody who isn't elderly or immune compromised.

Media: ZOMG ALIEN VAMPIRES FROM HALLEYS COMET?!

NoCoupForYou says

Scientists and 99% of Doctors: Wash your hands, stay hydrated, only wear a mask if you're sick, please stay home if you feel you're getting sick. This doesn't really kill anybody who isn't elderly or immune compromised.

Media: ZOMG ALIEN VAMPIRES FROM HALLEYS COMET?!

That alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.

RC2006 says

That alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.

+100%

NoCoupForYou says

That alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.

+100%

Lifeforce, one of my fave B classics.

Ceffer says

NoCoupForYou says

That alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.

+100%

Lifeforce, one of my fave B classics.

I was 12yo or so when my dad took me to see that took a lot to keep a straight face I could feel his grinning glance at me like a thousand suns. God rest your soul dad lol.

Heraclitusstudent says

It's slowly dawning on me that this thing just isn't going to be stopped.

So?
Heraclitusstudent says

It's more contagious than the flu and no one tries to stop the flu.

So?
Heraclitusstudent says

China tried with draconian measures and still failed.

And?
Heraclitusstudent says

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services.

Not here.
Heraclitusstudent says

Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.

As we always have...

We're all at risk of dying from a multitude of things. You first have to get infected. As of today there something like a 0.0000005% chance of even getting infected. From there you have to die. So we're now talking 0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population (I'm making this up, but probably not that far off). This is so overblown it's not comical anymore.

Fortunately, all Americans get at least 3 weeks of sick time per year, and anyone feeling under the weather, will stay home so as to not spread the disease. Also, our hospitals (based on market fundamentals) have huge capacities of excess staffed beds available to accommodate any local spike in numbers of people needing treatment.

In communist China they could simply order people to obey. In capitalist America...bills must be paid and it will spread quite rapidly and out healthcare system could rapidly become overwhelmed. Hopefully, better weather will make it dissipate somewhat until a vaccine can be made, but yeah expect it to be reoccurring on a somewhat yearly basis.

jazz_music says

According to Harvard's lead epidemiologist yesterday interview on CBS millions will die. Higher risk in the older age group.

No shit. They're more likely to die from a ton of shit. That doesn't make CV some huge problem though. We keep people alive too long just because we want to see them sitting in a fucking chair or bed rotting away. It's inhumane.

jazz_music says

Your estimate is off approximately as follows: 100% * 5,000,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 0.06% ± 0.03% of the world population.

Huh? I admittedly said I was making my percentage up. But are you estimating 5M DEATHS worldwide? We don't even have 100k cases in the entire WORLD at this point. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's 0.0000125% having the virus currently. 3,200 deaths currently puts us at 0.000000402% roughly. This is world population. While I exaggerated, I'm substantially closer to reality than whatever your math is.

jazz_music says

That opinion is beyond uncivilized to barbarian and indecent.

Nope. If you're 60+, not you specifically, be happy you made it that long. I have friends that lost kids to regular influenza at the age of 2. They didn't get to live their life. Kids that have cancer and have died. Didn't get to live their life. While I don't wish it upon anyone, I could give zero fucks about old people dying and that will include myself once I get there (if I do). We all meet the same ending. I'm happy that I've made it almost 40 years. A lot of people don't....

theoakman says

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.

The Chinese Working Class in an interior city resembling 19th Century Conditions != Typical American Lifestyle.

In fact the typical Bastard Factory in the Inner City lives a far better life with Medicaid, Shower/Bath in their Section 8 unshared with anybody and hot water, hand sanitizers in every supermarket and not infrequently in 711s.

Unlike one cold water tap and toilet shared for 5 families like in China.

It's been re-named the "Pitchfork Virus" and is now endorsed by NHS and Social Security. "A Better World For The Survivors! You, too, basement dwelling MILLXY, can be an inheritor!"

Heraclitusstudent says

theoakman says

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.

I understand it perfectly. What will it be by May? Greater growth rate does not outweigh the starting size. There is more than one parameter in an exponential growth function.

theoakman says

Heraclitusstudent says

theoakman says

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.

I understand it perfectly. What will it be by May?

This who recover have been outnumbering those who contract it for days now - worldwide. Just counting the numbers of people ever infected does not give you any proper assessment of the remaining contagion. Soon most from the Cruise will have recovered and be released, taking the count down by what, 40 or 50? Even right now most who get sick have a travel history with one of those countries. Unexplained community spread is at what like 10 cases? This is a serious contagious illness but I don't see it turning into a pandemic, neither does the WHO for now.