by Heraclitusstudent ➕follow (8) 💰tip ignore
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Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: 10 to 20 times more lethal.
2 - R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
3 - For the flu, around 1% of cases are severe enough to lead to people being hospitalized. For coronavirus, 13.8% cases are severe (meaning probably hospitalized), 4.7% are critical (Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). I don't look forward to experiencing respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure , even if I survive.
4 - we know the flu, and we know it will abate in March April. We don't know what will happen for coronavirus.
Do the math.
Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"
North Korea is suspiciously absent from that list.
R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services. Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.
Scientists and 99% of Doctors: Wash your hands, stay hydrated, only wear a mask if you're sick, please stay home if you feel you're getting sick. This doesn't really kill anybody who isn't elderly or immune compromised.
Media: ZOMG ALIEN VAMPIRES FROM HALLEYS COMET?!
That alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.
+100%
NoCoupForYou saysThat alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.
+100%
Lifeforce, one of my fave B classics.
It's slowly dawning on me that this thing just isn't going to be stopped.
It's more contagious than the flu and no one tries to stop the flu.
China tried with draconian measures and still failed.
It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services.
Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.
According to Harvard's lead epidemiologist yesterday interview on CBS millions will die. Higher risk in the older age group.
Your estimate is off approximately as follows: 100% * 5,000,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 0.06% ± 0.03% of the world population.
That opinion is beyond uncivilized to barbarian and indecent.
We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.
theoakman saysWe also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.
I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.
Heraclitusstudent saystheoakman saysWe also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.
I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.
I understand it perfectly. What will it be by May?
I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials.
I'm substantially closer to reality than whatever your math is.You have no basis whatsoever to say that.
An exponential is a geometric, only worse.
WookieMan saysI don't care what some Harvard snob saysYou will not find anyone better informed to report on the subject. Period.
Not even president sniffles, das gropenfuhrer.
So 40-70% of all people will be infected by this time next year.
One person out of every 1,000 - 2,000 is likely to die from this.
Events will be canceled and schools will be closed, but the virus is likely to not be contained regardless of all that.
That’s why one of the worst aspects is that many cases the symptoms are minimal. The other worst fact is our present inability to test.
Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"
One person out of every 1,000 - 2,000 is likely to die from this.WookieMan says
You have no basis to say 5M people are going to die from this.
I predict that by this time next year most of us will have had corona virus, and gotten over it without much fanfare.
Jazz is actually right... it can’t be contained for long. It’s too fucking contagious and people walk around without symptoms for a week before they get a cough. It will spread
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