patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials.

Hockey sticks, right? 100% fact?

An exponential is a geometric, only worse.

jazz_music says

I'm substantially closer to reality than whatever your math is.

You have no basis whatsoever to say that.

You have no basis to say 5M people are going to die from this. I don't care what some Harvard snob says. All our coasts were supposed to be 10' under water by now according to the "scholars." You seem blinded by the idea that EVERYONE has an agenda. Maybe start recognizing that you're being sold shit. This likely will likely cause fewer deaths than your typical influenza strain. Especially in the young where it actually matters.

The old and sick are a fucking drain on the worlds economy outside of medicine. Maybe start to question why this is being hyped up so much with the massive boomer generation susceptible to this virus. Just think about it. The hype.

jazz_music says

Not even president sniffles, das gropenfuhrer.

C'mon Man, Biden ain't President yet.

Ceffer says

An exponential is a geometric, only worse.

The geometrics are coming?!

Put on your safety goggles!

jazz_music says

WookieMan says

I don't care what some Harvard snob says

You will not find anyone better informed to report on the subject. Period.

Not even president sniffles, das gropenfuhrer.

So 40-70% of all people will be infected by this time next year.

One person out of every 1,000 - 2,000 is likely to die from this.

Events will be canceled and schools will be closed, but the virus is likely to not be contained regardless of all that.

That’s why one of the worst aspects is that many cases the symptoms are minimal. The other worst fact is our present inability to test.

Do you ever get tired of being colosally wrong?

I predict that by this time next year most of us will have had corona virus, and gotten over it without much fanfare.

Jazz is actually right... it can’t be contained for long. It’s too fucking contagious and people walk around without symptoms for a week before they get a cough. It will spread

NoCoupForYou says

Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"

Which BTW, turned into a Coca-Cola commercial ...

www.youtube.com/embed/1VM2eLhvsSM

jazz_music says

One person out of every 1,000 - 2,000 is likely to die from this.

WookieMan says

You have no basis to say 5M people are going to die from this.

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000 people who may die of this. Chances are that most of them will be elderly on the way out anyway.

Shaman says

I predict that by this time next year most of us will have had corona virus, and gotten over it without much fanfare.

Jazz is actually right... it can’t be contained for long. It’s too fucking contagious and people walk around without symptoms for a week before they get a cough. It will spread

This is a very unlikely scenario unless it is so mild that most cases go undetected and mistake as common cold, but then the death rate is insignificant as in extremely low. Will we evolve and one year or another perhaps get the coronavirus as it may return seasonally? Likely, esp. for younger more mobile people. That will also build up immunity for those to come after us. However for this season a pandemic is currently unlikely, even per WHO. Now they may change their stance if there are new developments, bit so far even in China only a small fraction of the population contracted it (after drastic containment measures).

jazz_music says

Shaman says

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000

No, that’s incorrect.

The current prognosis is 1 in 1000-2000 members of the human race.

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke? You're talking a 100% difference within the estimate. Just admit this is pure guesswork at this point. It's been around since December at least and we're mid March practically. If it was that contagious we'd have substantially more than 80-100k people infected. Again, only infected. Mostly in China. Check out population densities. You're not acknowledging the hype and relying on Chinese data. 1M out of 1B people should be infected in China alone if this was a problem.

It's not a problem. I think some are showing their age here....

jazz_music says

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke

No, it’s ONE DEAD from every 1,000 to 2,000 humans.

So the joke stands. A range of 1 out of 1,000 to 2,000 is fucking hysterical. Just admit that no one knows that data. Admit this isn't a big fucking deal. Put it this way, let's say it's 10 out of 10,000 to 20,000. That's a fucking 10k variance. That's complete guessing and not statistical data. That's where we're at with this. It's complete bull shit.

WookieMan says

jazz_music says

Shaman says

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000

No, that’s incorrect.

The current prognosis is 1 in 1000-2000 members of the human race.

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke? You're talking a 100% difference within the estimate. Just admit this is pure guesswork at this point. It's been around since December at least and we're mid March practically. If it was that contagious we'd have substantially more than 80-100k people infected. Again, only infected. Mostly in China. Check out population densities. You're not acknowledging the hype and relying on Chinese data. 1M out of 1B people should be infected in China alone if this was a problem.

It's not a problem. I think some are showing their age here....

lol but age is no excuse - they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Oh yes and AIDS was supposed to kill a big chunk of the world population as well since some "epidemiologists" theorized HIV can be spread at the hair dresser or barber (scissors, combs etc.) or bites from flies and other insects, leading to mass panics and mass accusations. Turned out even in unprotected sex the change of transfer was 1 to a few thousand, lesser for anal and the rougher you get. But yeah HIV was another one to doom humanity.

mell says

they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Y2K!!!

CBOEtrader says

mell says

they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Y2K!!!

Ah yes that one too, the preppers were out in full force there as well! Truth be told, even I expected a few more serious problems and was stupefied by how little went wrong.

And just last week, all polls and papers were predicting a serious Super Tuesday victory for Bernie....

Mutating like a mofo. The bioinformatics here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

just_dregalicious says

Mutating like a mofo. The bioinformatics here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Interesting how that plot shows NOTHING in Iran.

Prolly no strain data

More people have had their hair sniffed by Joe Biden than have died from the Corona Virus in the US.

WookieMan says

So the joke stands. A range of 1 out of 1,000 to 2,000 is fucking hysterical. Just admit that no one knows that data. Admit this isn't a big fucking deal. Put it this way, let's say it's 10 out of 10,000 to 20,000. That's a fucking 10k variance. That's complete guessing and not statistical data. That's where we're at with this. It's complete bull shit.

Like every poll too? And the data on amount of homeless? Pretty much all "data" from the MSM.

komputodo says

Like every poll too? And the data on amount of homeless? Pretty much all "data" from the MSM.

Yup, it's almost as if simple math is Chinese to them... lol. Or, like I'd probably guess, they manipulate it with "variables" and "what if" type data to shape the story.

It's like the difference between 1 and 2 doesn't seem all that dramatic. So they use lower numbers, 1k-2k. The difference between say 1M and 2M people dying is astronomical though. It's double the fucking number of deaths by one fucking million. That's not a rounding error or within a typical margin of error.

Been on the phone today, getting lots of event cancellations. People are telling me left and right that the illness responsible for 15-30% of the common cold diagnosis in the United States is like the Fucking Andromeda Strain.

This is why we need the Irresponsible Fearmonging Regulation

Everytime the media mentions a Disease, they must mention the CDC US official death rate or an official CDC statement at the beginning and end of the segment, such as "Less than 1% and almost only among the elderly and severe immune compromised. Just wash your hands and stay home if you're sick" or be fined $10M per incident by the FCC.

NoCoupForYou says

Been on the phone today, getting lots of event cancellations. People are telling me left and right that the illness responsible for 15-30% of the common cold diagnosis in the United States is like the Fucking Andromeda Strain.

It's really fucking annoying. I know people have their opinions of cruises (I don't want to hear them), but I'm boarding one in about 17 days. That mother fucker gets cancelled or redirected because of this absolute bull shit I'm going to go nuts.

I've got travel insurance, but I need to look at the policy. Not sure overhyped viruses are covered. If I catch CV and die on the beach, hells yes. So if you don't hear from Wookie by say April 10th or so, I've likely died from CV or am being quarantined in the Caribbean in a 2 bedroom suite... the horror.

WookieMan says

I've got travel insurance, but I need to look at the policy. Not sure overhyped viruses are covered. If I catch CV and die on the beach, hells yes. So if you don't hear from Wookie by say April 10th or so, I've likely died from CV or am being quarantined in the Caribbean in a 2 bedroom suite... the horror.

This was on the news a few days ago and the reporter said in most cases travel insurance will not cover it unless the policy was for "cancel for any reason" which i guess is twice as much.

RC2006 says

This was on the news a few days ago and the reporter said in most cases travel insurance will not cover it unless the policy was for "cancel for any reason" which i guess is twice as much.

Yup, I've read/heard the same. Just haven't looked at the damn policy. Not in the mood to read that much, too lazy.

Although I've heard most lines cancelling Asian cruises are giving future credit because of this. Would be bad business to not at least do that. The fucking Italians are the one's that introduced CV to the Dominican/Haiti. Problem is just one cruise ship in the Caribbean gets infected the entire fucking system will get shut down. Too many old people on these boats for the cruise lines or islands to risk it.

WookieMan says

RC2006 says

This was on the news a few days ago and the reporter said in most cases travel insurance will not cover it unless the policy was for "cancel for any reason" which i guess is twice as much.

Yup, I've read/heard the same. Just haven't looked at the damn policy. Not in the mood to read that much, too lazy.

Although I've heard most lines cancelling Asian cruises are giving future credit because of this. Would be bad business to not at least do that. The fucking Italians are the one's that introduced CV to the Dominican/Haiti. Problem is just one cruise ship in the Caribbean gets infected the entire fucking system will get shut down. Too many old people on these boats for the cruise lines or islands to risk it.

If the cruise line cancels it you should get a refund regardless of insurance. The question is for connecting flights and separate hotels, right?

mell says

If the cruise line cancels it you should get a refund regardless of insurance. The question is for connecting flights and separate hotels, right?

Direct flight to San Juan, PR with points with Southwest. So I can cancel 24 hours in advance with no penalty. Hotel in PR paid with Hilton points, and now that I'm typing this I need to check the cancellation policy for that, lol. It would suck, but that's just points and not actual after tax out of pocket cash, but I'm pretty sure I can cancel that. Going to check though. Thanks.

All this said I have no intention of cancelling and this god damn overhyped virus can't stop me. Or so I hope.

The Chinese numbers are obvious BS.
This thing is spreading everywhere... but supposedly receding in China....

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-survived-coronavirus-2020-the-products-people-are-buying-and-selling-in-response-to-the-deadly-new-virus-2020-01-24

Coronavirus is driving sales of face masks, a game called Plague, and an ‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt

zzyzzx says

‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt

Isn't that one a bit premature?

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

‘I Survived Coronavirus 2020’ T-shirt

How about: "I survived Coronavirus 2020, but succumbed to the press hysteria"