patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

mell says

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Used to grow by 30%+ the first few days when testing was established. Of course it's easier to get higher percentage when staring out low in the beginning, but it has now been around 25% flat per day. As testing has been catching up that's not too bad. Let's see where the day ends today.

You have to believe the Chinese when they say they stopped the virus, at a time where it is spreading everywhere else.
Without that, the numbers you are looking at are just wrong.

Bullshit. The Chinese don't fuck around with the clampdowns. Their numbers are believable, plus the same trend is seen for other Asian countries. You can spout tinfoil hat stuff all day, we have direct contact with companies that work there. It's true that they're slowly going back to normal, you can see that by how the Asian stocks are behaving as well. It's the European and US indexes that have been under pressure lately, not the Asian ones.

Hong Kong is pretty much unaffected as of now.

WookieMan says

Heraclitusstudent says

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services.

Not here.

People in Europe & Asia are mere barbarians compare to us. USA USA USA....

- Italy health services are overwhelmed:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/11/italys-hospitals-overwhelmed-coronavirus-top-health-official-says-worst-yet-come-us

- well actually... turns out Italy has 3.18 hospital beds / 1000 people. vs 2.77 hospital beds / 1000 people in the US
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds

The pressure is essentially off the Chinese now anyway. There will be repercussions potentially long term for China on the business side, but Italy locking down an entire country is the bigger news story at this point. There's no motivation anymore for the Chinese to lie anymore at this point (even though I still don't trust them).

mell says

The Chinese don't fuck around with the clampdowns. Their numbers are believable, plus the same trend is seen for other Asian countries.

Right. Remember they clampdown was mostly in 1 region. The virus is now spread in many places in China. They have 130 cities of more than 1 million people. Were they all locked down? Nope. Otherwise the economic damage would have been massive. And everywhere else it spreads silently in communities, but in China they miraculously catch all the new cases.... Maybe they do, but I have my doubts. Maybe they just decided, "ok we lost, we'll just slow it down and stop counting cases and claim victory in the meantime".

WookieMan says

There's no motivation anymore for the Chinese to lie anymore at this point (even though I still don't trust them).

What would be the motivation to continue to show the cases growing in their country: 200k, 1million?
It would be a daily display of impotence.

Stopped. Snap. Just like that.

Heraclitusstudent says

What would be the motivation to continue to show the cases growing in their country: 200k, 1million?
It would be a daily display of impotence.

People testing positive really means nothing. If they have 500M tested cases and 20k dead at the end of this, it's no worse than the flu.

This is just like peanut allergies in my opinion. YOU have to self quarantine if you have respiratory or health issues. It's not up to the rest of the world to bend over backwards for your ailment. Isn't this common sense?

I feel for the people that have these issues themselves and/or relatives that do too, but it's not everyone else's problem. My old man didn't "catch" cancer, it just happened. Unfortunately I don't have others to blame like this virus. People gotta stop pointing fingers. Self quarantine yourself if you have any concerns. Simple as that.

The hype on this literally is going to kill more people due to economic reason than the actual virus. I won't be able to prove it, but we get a shitload of meds from China. If there's a shortage of just one, there's could be hundreds of deaths.

Heraclitusstudent says

Right. Remember they clampdown was mostly in 1 region. The virus is now spread in many places in China. They have 130 cities of more than 1 million people. Were they all locked down? Nope. Otherwise the economic damage would have been massive. And everywhere else it spreads silently in communities, but in China they miraculously catch all the new cases.... Maybe they do, but I have my doubts. Maybe they just decided, "ok we lost, we'll just slow it down and stop counting cases and claim victory in the meantime".

At least a Million people already have or had it. Probably millions. John Hopkins is only posting Confirmed Cases.

Heraclitusstudent says

WookieMan says

There's no motivation anymore for the Chinese to lie anymore at this point (even though I still don't trust them).

What would be the motivation to continue to show the cases growing in their country: 200k, 1million?
It would be a daily display of impotence.

If you want to just use tinfoil hat numbers instead of numbers given for EVERY country - even if some don't report totally accurately - then there's nothing to discuss since it's up to everyone's personal opinion.

Looks like we're coming in around 24% again, Italy is showing some promise at 18.5% new infections, Germany 21%, rest of Europe between 10% and 30%, Asia continues to level off fast, also Iran is starting to show a slowdown. It's mainly the US and Europe right now, in the US the 2 worst hit states by far are Washington and NYC, followed by CA which seems to be slowing down as well amid newly announced lockdowns.

Just in, no European travel to USA for 30 days!

ForcedTQ says

Just in, no European travel to USA for 30 days!

Those are good measures to contain the spread, but it begs the question why they didn't do that in 2009 during the swine flu pandemic which infected and killed far far more people than this likely will. The lamestream media is in panic mode hoping to hurt the Prez and to distract from Biden's dementia and cokehead Hunter's Shenanigans.

* All employee Sick days to be compensated (not sure how this works exactly)
* $50B SBA to direct loans/grants to small biz for sick workers.
* Total European travel ban for 30 days.
* Temporary Payroll tax reduction/elimination

Only thing missing was hefty FCC fines for hyping the virus and not contextualizing it.

We currently have 1260 active cases in the US of which 10 (!) are serious/critical. Ooook, that surely warrants the apocalypse now.

I get doing some of this stuff as a confidence booster, but it's too bad a State of Emergency requiring that conferences, events, schools, businesses, be forbidden from closing unless they can prove a high infection rate among staff/attendees/students can't be declared.

Maybe something can be done with Federal Contractors and Grant recipients - Sorry, UCal Whatever, you received millions in federal aid, so you can't close.

Many universities plan to shut for spring break and not re-open except via remote learning (which might, in the long run, be a good thing).

Forrest Gump has CV - Run, Forrest, Run!

Also MSNPCBS always cites the 120k number of total infections. The active infections are currently 53k, less than half, or 0.00068831168 % of the world population, you can add a factor fo 10 if you think the real infection rate is 10 x higher, so 0.007% rounded.

mell says

Ooook, that surely warrants the apocalypse FUCK now.

fixed it for you.

mell says

Hong Kong is pretty much unaffected as of now.

Badasses... They did such a bang up job their flu season ended 2 months earlier than usual.

WookieMan says

YOU have to self quarantine if you have respiratory or health issues. It's not up to the rest of the world to bend over backwards for your ailment. Isn't this common sense?

I don't 100% agree with this but in essence I do. Whether expected or mandated or not the world won't. It'll roll you.

You know what I hate. Those fucking nubbly things that are in front of all of the grocery stores in California these days. I'm not fucking blind. I'm not going to run out into traffic. But all my groceries get shook up if I have to slow my roll heading to the grocery-gitter parked in the lot.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca


Long article but it really lays it all out for you.

just_dregalicious says

I don't 100% agree with this but in essence I do. Whether expected or mandated or not the world won't. It'll roll you.

You know what I hate. Those fucking nubbly things that are in front of all of the grocery stores in California these days. I'm not fucking blind. I'm not going to run out into traffic. But all my groceries get shook up if I have to slow my roll heading to the grocery-gitter parked in the lot.

IL just mandated all sidewalks near an intersection have curbs, basically so the blind (maybe 0.1% of the community) can then find the rumblers. Basically guide their stick to them. My kids are goofballs, but there's been a couple times since last fall, my kids stumble over these new curbs and into the street and have a chance of getting run over. But hey, let's please a micro minority....

I struggle with the first part of what I quote JD. No one should have to suffer for an ailment they had/have no control over. But that's why I compare it to peanut allergies. People can't expect the general population to bend over backwards for something they don't know you even have. I'm of the mindset that the person with the ailment needs to make the adjustment in their public and private life. It's harsh, but are we all supposed to kiss ass to all the depressed people? Other ailments? Not sure where the list stops. I wish no ill will on anyone either. It's a tough balance.

Shaman says

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca


Long article but it really lays it all out for you.

Seems well researched. All goes out the window when they reference Turkey having 0 infections. They have a border with Iran.... Just means Turkey hasn't tested enough. And it just means none of this data can be trusted.

Mandate every person in the US gets tested tomorrow and we'll likely be looking at 1M plus infections. This has spread and is a nothing burger if you're 60 or under, non-smoker and with no immunity issues. I'm frankly of the opinion this needs to spread so we can just get over this... It's annoying.

WookieMan says

Mandate every person in the US gets tested tomorrow and we'll likely be looking at 1M plus infections.

This I believe. However the problem is that there are very few test kits available. For whatever bureaucratic reason, our CDC decided that it had to make up its own test kit...which didn’t work! By the time they got it working that was like just last week, and this thing is moving crazy fast. Oh and nobody has test kits. I don’t feel like going to the ER just to be told they’re out of kits or they wouldn’t use one on me because I haven’t been to China recently. So I suspect that the vast majority of infections remains entirely undiagnosed!
That article gives a good idea of the true infected value being like ten times what the official value is.

Shaman says

That article gives a good idea of the true infected value being like ten times what the official value is.

I think it's substantially higher than 10x though. I'd bet it's closer to 40-50M worldwide. I have no evidence to back that, but this was around earlier than the Chinese are saying.

The problem I have with all of this, and yes my bias is showing being a younger person in good health, is that this doesn't really kill that many people. It's old AND unhealthy people. Decisions in life have consequences, but we all now have to deal with their choices? Shut down travel between continents because other people fucked up?

And before I get my head bit off, I do sympathize with those that have respiratory conditions. That wasn't your choice. They hype is insane at this point though.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8104471/Porn-site-allows-Italians-watch-content-free-amid-coronavirus-lockdown.html

Porn site allows Italians to watch all of its content for free during the country's coronavirus lockdown

A humanitarian gesture!

The_Weeping_Ayatollah says

THIS! X1,000

Looks like Europe coming in anywhere between 15%-30% again per country, and the US around 25%. Washington and New York continue to separate themselves from the rest as front-runners, CA is 3rd. Asian cases continue to decline.

They're closing all sfusd schools for 3 weeks. That should help massively containing spread in SF.

The NY Times shows a decline in the last two days:



from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

If that keeps flat or declining, it's a very good sign.

Another good graph from them, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html



Puts the deaths in perspective.

The deaths are mounting a bit due to Italy where many old people are dying. Overall the cases have been shifting to the milder version with now 90% mild (was 85% mild just a week ago or so). Maybe this is the 2nd S strain that is less aggressive and has been more prevalent lately. The page says US is at over 400 for today but they start and stop the day at GMT 0 hours, so that would be a record, although as percentage of new cases around 25% (almost unchanged). I think as more testing is now done faster (plus the Cruise ship numbers coming in) we will see a rise for a few days and then hopefully stagnation before the descent. SF has only 14 confirmed cases (of which 3 were brought in from outside for treatment), and with today's school closures and WFH policies I think CA can get this under control soon. WA and NY are the hotbeds that really need attention and drastic measures.

Also out of 1644 active cases in the US currently only 10 are critical, or 0.6%. Some may become critical but for now that is a very low number.

Lots of scientific articles coming out daily:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=COVID19%20or%20SARSCov2&sort=date

Of course, we are talking about 'known and tested' cases, from people who registered the most severe symptoms to begin with in order to warrant testing. Those who just got a nose stinker and recovered spontaneously without testing aren't included.