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Corona virus (more correctly, Wuhan virus)


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2020 Jan 24, 12:33pm   195,459 views  3,372 comments

by Heraclitusstudent   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Anyone wants to risk a bet on the eventual number of sick people? Dead people?

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41   RC2006   2020 Jan 26, 9:18am  

mell says
RC2006 says
HeadSet says
So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?


Ha was just talking to coworker about putting in an order to Granger, its FOB city around here.


Unless you're in a hospital setting or maybe public transit, very close proximity with bad ventilation masks are a waste. Just avoid crowds and wash your hands at all times, esp. before touching your face. Same precautions as for the flu.


I was just going to wear one to be an asshole, then use it for bathroom demo.
42   mell   2020 Jan 26, 9:21am  

Heraclitusstudent says
So far the growth is around 60% a day.

Projecting this, it will be a million cases in 2 weeks.

They will ban travels to Asia unless absolutely necessary, ask people to work from home where they can, and maybe close schools.


They should. Most business travel to Asia here from the bay area has already been canceled. It's been growing at a faster rate in China of course since it was undiagnosed for a while and due to the proximity of so many people to each other. It won't reach a million cases if the Chinese numbers are anywhere near accurate.
43   mell   2020 Jan 26, 9:27am  

Of course Zh speculates up to "5MM potential carriers" have left the Wuhan region already. Best quote is this though:

"After Friday's selloff, we imagine investors will be paying close attention to news out of Wuhan as it completely overshadows other 'important' domestic news stories, like the Dems impeachment debacle, or the fact that Bernie Sanders is now on track to win Iowa and New Hampshire."

Anybody care for the impeachment trial? No. lol
44   Booger   2020 Jan 26, 9:55am  

China is asshoe!
45   mell   2020 Jan 26, 9:58am  

Booger says
China is asshoe!


best password ever!
47   WookieMan   2020 Jan 26, 12:33pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
So far the growth is around 60% a day.

Projecting this, it will be a million cases in 2 weeks.

They will ban travels to Asia unless absolutely necessary, ask people to work from home where they can, and maybe close schools.

Not saying you're wrong at all, but what are your sources? I don't believe shit that comes out of China. They have the tech and knowledge to track this stuff, but I don't trust that they use it correctly, whether intentionally so or by stupidity of who they put in charge of tracking it. My guess is the numbers are vastly underreported and maybe they're catching up with their bullshit.

I also don't trust medical or mortality statistics for any country. Like you voluntarily admit that people have a higher probability of death by living there versus other places.
48   rigidmember   2020 Jan 26, 12:42pm  

Two sick now in Socal, now just waiting for the first case here in the Bay Area. With the diversity here and world travel the way it is I guarantee there's someone here with the virus.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Health-officials-confirm-case-of-new-virus-in-15005174.php
50   WookieMan   2020 Jan 26, 1:41pm  

Patrick says
May well be spread by eating bats:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html

This is Trump's fault. With the trade war we weren't selling as much grain to China. So they had to eat bats.....

Just wait, someone is going to come out with this if it is in fact determined it's from bats.

I'm Ace Ventura. I think bats are about the only animal that completely freaks the fuck out of me. I wouldn't even want to be near a dead one. I know I'm going to sound like a crazy mother fucker, but I can hear bats and that's ultimately why I hate them. Spine tingling/nails on chalk board.
51   RWSGFY   2020 Jan 26, 4:49pm  

Fucking Chinese need to leave the fucking wildlife the fuck alone. Stop craving tiger penises, pangolin scales, shark fins, bats, snakes, monkey brains and other disgusting stuff which is neither tasty nor good for you but is popular because of superstitions and/or because it shows that you are wealthy enough to afford to eat this weird shit. Enough of this silliness!
52   komputodo   2020 Jan 26, 9:59pm  

WookieMan says
I'm Ace Ventura. I think bats are about the only animal that completely freaks the fuck out of me.

Me too...Last time I saw one, I killed it with a shovel.
53   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Jan 26, 10:02pm  

80 deaths (40% increase).
World cases count not mentioned. But 5 in the US.
55   RC2006   2020 Jan 27, 11:24am  


www.youtube.com/embed/s7OJYtRJY0k

They are like insects, if we came across this it would be completely different reaction.
56   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Jan 27, 11:52am  

This virus has a relatively long incubation period during which people are not really sick and don't have fever but can infect others. Given this, how do you track cases that may have spread for some time all over the world, and may be incorrectly labeled as pneumonia of some kind.
If the containment measures are working, we will see a graduation reduction in the reported cases.
If not, we will see new the virus popup in more places and the number of cases jump.
58   Hircus   2020 Jan 27, 4:49pm  

Does anyone know what the typical compound growth rates are for viruses, like influenza?

Going from 201 to 1300 in 5 days is a compound daily growth rate of ~45%

I know this is a small data sample, but compound growth at a rate like that is crazy. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the flu had growth spurts like that too during peak times in the winter. But to imagine if growth compounded at a rate near this for a few weeks....holy shit.



HeadSet says
So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?


I ordered some on wed, but they're backordered for 1 more week.

I already stockpile food (few hundred lbs of beans/rice/etc) and some water, so I'm good there. But I think I'm going to start stockpiling other stuff too in preparation of the near future. If this thing really takes off, I want to have plenty of supplies so that I don't need to go out into contaminated retail stores, as well as accept contaminated delivery boxes into my home. I want to get it now/soon while there's no worry about a sick UPS driver, or sick employees making my products. If things got really bad, not only could it be risky to expose yourself to sick people in public, but sick people, or scared people, may stop going to work, which will break down supply chains, making supplies harder to get.

Ima git it while the gettins good.
59   HeadSet   2020 Jan 27, 5:27pm  

Ima git it while the gettins good.

Do not forget the bleach.
60   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Jan 27, 5:38pm  

Today death toll climbs to 106
Confirmed cases in China soars to 4,515

Death toll is only ~30% higher than yesterday. But # of cases up 65% in 1 day from 2,744 yesterday.
61   HeadSet   2020 Jan 27, 5:46pm  

Odd there is no talk about a vaccine.
62   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Jan 27, 5:51pm  

Vaccines will take months - if not a year.
63   mell   2020 Jan 27, 5:51pm  

HeadSet says
Odd there is no talk about a vaccine.


Don't think it happens that fast. I'd think months at the minimum. Various biotechs said to be working on it.
65   zzyzzx   2020 Jan 28, 6:03am  

This won't even put a dent in China's overpopulation problem.
66   Eman   2020 Jan 28, 9:23am  

For whatever it’s worth and for comparison purposes. This was what my Hongkongese friend sent me last night. He said over 4,500 cases now and 106 deaths. A good spike.



67   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Jan 28, 9:29am  

Pure coincidence that China's premier virus lab, studying EBOLA and SARS, is in the heart of Wuhan.


68   CBOEtrader   2020 Jan 28, 12:32pm  

Friends in chicago tell me Chinatown is in lockdown. None of the restaurants or shops are open. Meanwhile, next neighborhood over is full of Mexicans who dont give a shit, every restaurant and store open.

Not sure what that tells us
69   Ceffer   2020 Jan 28, 12:35pm  

CBOEtrader says
Friends in chicago tell me Chinatown is in lockdown. None of the restaurants or shops are open. Meanwhile, next neighborhood over is full of Mexicans who dont give a shit, every restaurant and store open.

Not sure what that tells us


Silly. It tells us Mexicans love their Corona.
70   georgeliberte   2020 Jan 28, 2:32pm  

Thank god you can take preventive measures-drink.
71   Hircus   2020 Jan 28, 7:30pm  

2 days have passed, and the growth rate continues steady in the mid 40's -

now were at
201 cases on 21st
4515 cases on 28th

= ~48% daily growth rate
72   Patrick   2020 Jan 28, 7:36pm  

This could bc very good for US manufacturing, depending on how long it goes on over there, and whether it comes here in any significant way.

Not rejoicing, just saying.
73   CBOEtrader   2020 Jan 28, 7:47pm  

Hircus says
2 days have passed, and the growth rate continues steady in the mid 40's -

now were at
201 cases on 21st
4515 cases on 28th

= ~48% daily growth rate


That's like 39 days until everyone on earth catches the carona V. Someone get greta on the phone
74   HeadSet   2020 Jan 29, 8:39am  

Some ethnicities are prone/immune to certain diseases. Wonder if, for example, Blacks or another group may be less susceptible to Coronavirus, while Asians are more susceptible. Also the issue of experience with similar strains, such has how cox pox infected people were resistant to small pox.
75   komputodo   2020 Jan 29, 8:47am  

Hircus says
2 days have passed, and the growth rate continues steady in the mid 40's -

It's working!! what impeachment?
76   komputodo   2020 Jan 29, 8:48am  

HeadSet says
Blacks or another group may be less susceptible to Coronavirus,

But the sickle cell has them by the balls
77   Hircus   2020 Jan 29, 10:50am  

Tim Aurora says

Hopefully it is tapering with new measures. 28% for today.


Unfortunately, the sources I've come across have been a little bit different from each other. I think sometimes the difference might be due to measurements at a different time of day.



real time map
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I think this map's data is shifted 1 day off. if you look at the bottom left, they say 4400 on the 26th, while the chart says 4400 on the 27th. And similar for other days.


But anyway, via this data it looks like going from 4464 to 6060 is about ~36% in 1 day, so hopefully it keeps trending down.
79   CBOEtrader   2020 Jan 29, 12:23pm  

HeadSet says
Wonder if, for example, Blacks or another group may be less susceptible to Coronavirus, while Asians are more susceptible.


Good thing I identify as black

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