patrick.net

Cash says

Is this a hoax or what? https://ncov2019.live/data/asia Check out India 1 of the most filthiest, congested, near zero personal space not to mention the raw sewage and feces laden trails with a population of 1,352,642,280. How is this so?

This is after massive Muslims Found Licking both sides of Spoons, Plates in restaurants (there are plenty of videos still online) and spitting on food, currency bills etc to Spread COVID-19 virus and spread throughout the country after international Muslim congregation in new Delhi last week by deifying lock down rule. Muslims are super filthy and spreaders on purpose.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

SHoot all the old people in the face and RALLY!

Always good for practical advice!

The stars on this graph show when national lock downs started.



They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.

From https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Patrick says

The stars on this graph show when national lock downs started.



They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.

From

The problem is that likely many cases already circulated by that time and there's a testing overhang of days if not weeks since the rapid tests were just introduced. While not a big fan I do think the lockdowns are working, CA started way earlier than NY and is relatively flat now. A better way though would be to allow all recovered to go back to work and frolic and tell everyone else who hasn't had it to wear masks if they go mingle and to work. As well as maybe extend the SIP for people over a certain age and high risk groups while hospitals are busy. Also distribute Zithromax and chloroquine to every household to be taken on any signs of covid-19/pneumonia.

Patrick says

They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.

Compared to what ?

Do you know what an exponential growth graph looks like ?

I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down. That's true. .

marcus says

Do you know what an exponential growth graph looks like ?

A hockey stick.

marcus says

I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down.

Your logic is irrefutable.

ThreeBays says

These are log based graphs

Good point.

jazz_music says

A year or 2 from now you should get a good fit of this infection history, for example, with a third or fourth order polynomial curve.

We've got some statisticians here.

:
Why not fit it to a logistic model. Isn't that what it is ?

jazz_music says

These are log based graphs. Fixed exponential growth looks like straight lines. Reduction in the steepness of the slope shows the exponent dropping.

I'm not sure if reliving calculus class or getting Corona virus would be worse.

marcus says

:
Why not fit it to a logistic model. Isn't that what it is ?

"Logistic" model? I know what you meant, I just find it funny because I have an MS in Logistics.

:
Yeah, entirely different use of the word. What kind of company do you work for now ?

jazz_music says

Malcolm says

ThreeBays says

These are log based graphs. Fixed exponential growth looks like straight lines. Reduction in the steepness of the slope shows the exponent dropping.

I'm not sure if reliving calculus class or getting Corona virus would be worse.

Three Bays said that, not me

Often it's in statistics that students learn about a log scale graph of an exponential curve being linear, becasue of transformations that are used to do linear regression on graphs that have clear patterns that aren't linear (for example if it is an exp growth or decay pattern)

marcus says

:
Yeah, entirely different use of the word. What kind of company do you work for now ?

When I was in the Air Force, I was taken from the cockpit and sent as a non-volunteer to Air Force Institute of Technology to get a MS in Logistics, even though I already had an MA in Management. I never really used this degree for the Air Force, but since it gave me 18 hrs in Statistics I was able to teach Statistics at Hampton University. I currently manage IT for a 300 vehicle taxi company, which involves an Uber like app with related databases, plus GPS dispatch, cashiering, accounting, and related IP networks and remote systems. What I am most proud of at the taxi company is that I put together a system where a blind call taker can work from home. Originally, I had to make a split headset where an advanced form of "Windows Narrator" read the screen in one ear, while the customer talked in the other ear (we can buy these headsets now). A well programmed IP phone, mods to some proprietary software, plus keyboard shortcuts are used as well. As it turns out, a blind person is now one of out best call takers.

Often it's in statistics that students learn about a log scale graph of an exponential curve being linear, becasue of transformations that are used to do linear regression on graphs that have clear patterns that aren't linear (for example if it is an exp growth or decay pattern)

That sounds like trig or pre-cal. The stats I learned and taught involved stuff like probability, distributions, degrees of freedom, sample sizes, confidence intervals, p-values, and margin of error. We did do linear regression, but that was to determine correlations, nothing to do with graphing, per se.

HeadSet says

We did do linear regression, but that was to determine correlations, nothing to do with graphing, per se.

Well these days a half way serious College Statistics and even an AP Statistics course is going to go a little deeper into linear regression (also known as the line of best fit on a scatter plot). I'm not sure how you teach that without ever drawing a graph. Certainly no text would. In any case, if the pattern of a scatter plot clearly resembles an exponential growth pattern then you can use the transformation x versus logY, or variations, until you get a linear pattern and then you can use linear regression to do predictions.

Just so you know, it's not really so much of a high school topic. Actually it's the most challenging part of a college Stats 1 (or AP Stats) section on bivariate data (scatter plots, linear regression etc), otherwise, a very easy section. You may have chosen to skip it when teaching statistics, to spend more time on the inferential stuff, which I sometimes do, at least compared to what I could do with it. Or perhpas it wasn't there then. Things change, for example what used to always be called the correlation coefficient r is now often called just correlation r.

https://stattrek.com/regression/linear-transformation.aspx
http://www.statpower.net/Content/313/Lecture%20Notes/Transformation.pdf
https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat462/node/85/

The second and third are way beyond what I teach in AP stats, just included to show that, no it's not really a precalc topic, although the simple case were talking about would be totally accessible to them . In precalc you're more usually concerned with other applications of log and exponential functions, in preparation for calculus.

“The IHME model is using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the US.

“It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday (Wednesday) over the Coronavirus, Sean Davis of The Federalist said.

“The actual number? 31,142.

https://canadafreepress.com/article/save-the-western-world-by-booting-ambassador-birx-off-the-corona-virus-task

https://theothermccain.com/2020/04/09/imhe-lowers-covid-19-u-s-death-projection-again-now-down-to-60000/

While MSNBC hosts were busy spreading conspiracy theories, the doomsday forecasters were revising their numbers again:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent from 81,766 to 60,415 early Wednesday morning.

The IHME model has come under withering criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release from IHME explaining the reasons for the reduction. It marks the second reduction in the model’s U.S. deaths projections since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities.

On April 5, the death projections were lowered to 81,766.

If a flu season kills 60k per say half-year that would be 330 per day each year during flu season in the US, so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different. The difference is there's a vaccine and established meds / care. Once that's the case for Covid-19 it will integrate with the regular flu season statistics and nobody will sensationalize it anymore. Also, should we then do at least a quarter to half of the current lockdown measures each flu season? Certainly not.

thomasdong1776 says

As of April 8th, the Covid 19 virus has risen to be the single leading daily cause of death in America (note NOT year to date or accumulated, but daily).

https://ritholtz.com/2020/04/leading-daily-cause-of-death/

So what?

jazz_music says

ThreeBays says

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day

We haven’t even seen peak liquor sales yet.

How about peak toilet paper sales?

jazz_music says

ThreeBays says

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day

We haven’t even seen peak liquor sales yet.

Clearly....

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We have very likely seen the peak. In terms of new infections vs total the rate has been trending down for days now and that's your indicator. Not total new cases per day which will be lagging by a few days or weeks to start their downtrend.

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

jazz_music says

Booger says

How about peak toilet paper sales

Yes

Shit was exaggerated

You're on a roll!

Well, we've hit over 2,000 deaths per day attributed to this. That's up there with daily deaths from heart disease.

The idiots in LA County just extended the stay in place order to May 15. Cops won’t be able to enforce it. Wonder if Gruesome is willing to send in the national Guard.(they won’t be able to enforce it either).

My guess is it gets retracted. It sure does seem as though the California politicians are trying to crush the california economy.

Fucking idiots. La County officials are claiming if the order is lifted, 96% will be infected by August.

Guy I work with had it, was in close contact for several hours with 5 other employees, and about 80 people working in this wide open cubicle farm.

No one else got it.

Lying assholes.

ThreeBays says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

Let us know when you figure out how that tells us what a maximum peak without a lock-down would be.

According to the idiots that run LA County, it’s when the entire county gets it.

https://abc7.com/health/covid-19-la-county-extends-safer-at-home-order-/6093020/

Sad they already removed it from the written article after only an hour. It still says it in the video.

ThreeBays says

What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Who cares?? Yours and others solution is to lock down the ENTIRE populace for maybe the 5% that are vulnerable? The logic behind people that think this way is mind numbing. It makes no sense and everyone that contradicts my point of view has not put forth one logical explanation why just locking down the old and frail won't work.... not one.

I am not kidding. You are going to have family members, friends of friends start killing themselves. Everyone doing the bullshit singing out the window crap is NOT happy. The zoom "hangouts" or whatever service. They're trying to do something to keep occupied. Sitting at home doing nothing kills people. I'm afraid we're going to kill a bunch of productive, younger people because it's somehow easier to put down 100% of the population versus 5%. Whatever. I'll continue to wait for someone to come with an even remotely intelligent argument why I'm wrong.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

That's the peak of this suppressed wave. What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave. Using the slower summer months to acquire additional herd immunity is the best course of action. Open up May 1st already.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

At some point, there won't be any CRISIS ACTORS! left to hire to pretend to die.

WINNING!

That’s how hers immunity and nature works. Weak die off. Nature isn’t all that nice.

Fortwaynemobile says

Weak die off. Nature isn’t all that nice.

I think people here and elsewhere need to heed this. Short and simple. Just because we use words and have emotions doesn't take away the fact there's little we can do about this. We locked down. No one will ever have proof that made a difference because we didn't stay open. There's no equal dataset for the alternative. The morons are going to march to the hilltop and claim victory because we locked down.... with zero proof it made a difference.

I fear in an actual crisis most of the mouth breathers here are likely dead and are afraid of that fact. Strange how the weak rise to the top during times like this.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave.

25-50% is a baseless assumption. The German serology test puts fatality rate at 0.37% would put USA infections in the area of 1.7%.

Test show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless

Sometimes I have this sinking feeling that I might die one day... stupid right?

ThreeBays says

Correction, the morons are the ones who can't tell it made a difference. There's data that curves were flattened and the spread was contained. Without slowing it down there's no reason why LA, Chicago, Dallas, etc. all metro areas wouldn't be trending to where NY went.

How do you explain Japan?
They didn't shutdown and aren't having any issues with that.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Test show 20% already have antibodies. How's that baseless

Where, what towns? Everywhere?

Everywhere where they decide to do a study the results are similar. 25% probably already had it and developed antibodies. Since it traveled around the world fast you can assume roughly equal distribution.

ThreeBays says

It's beyond clear there's not equal distribution.

It's what's expected when you would send a group of sequestered Cruise Ship passengers home, that spent three weeks locked aboard with 3 sick patients and 1 dead victim.