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Flatten the Curve

By Onvacation follow Onvacation   2020 Jul 15, 3:31am 6,005 views   706 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    



As the numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths surge to record levels in multiple epicenters, local and state officials are struggling with whether and how much to reverse the rollback of restrictions on individuals and businesses. For example, following a gradual reopening over about a month, on Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the reintroduction of statewide restrictions that would again shut down bars, all indoor dining, family entertainment, zoos and museums following a surge in coronavirus cases. The governors of Florida, Texas, and Arizona, all now epicenters of infection, have also slowed or reversed reopening, but their actions have been tepid. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is even insisting on opening schools in the face of record-high numbers of infections.

These officials would do well to recall the observation of The Great One. No, not Dr. Tony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health—the other one, hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, who once explained, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

Anticipating what’s coming is important in confronting an infectious disease, especially one whose dynamics are what many infectious disease experts consider their worst nightmare. COVID-19 is highly infectious, has a lengthy incubation period (during which asymptomatic infected persons can unwittingly shed virus and infect other people), and causes serious, sometimes fatal illness.

Those unusual characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, and the idiosyncrasies and spectrum of presentations of the illness—from pulmonary symptoms (including pneumonia and pulmonary fibrosis) to a range of non-respiratory manifestations, (including loss of sense of smell or taste, confusion and cognitive impairments, fainting, sudden muscle weakness or paralysis, seizures, ischemic strokes, kidney damage, and, rarely, a severe pediatric inflammatory syndrome) mean that we are on a steep learning curve.

The problem is: if we react too slowly to changing circumstances, we can fall off a metaphorical cliff.

There’s an old brain teaser that perfectly illustrates this point. Consider a pond of a certain size, on which there is a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces and duplicates itself once a day, so that on day 2, you have two lily pads. On day 3, you have four; on day 4, you have eight; and so on. Here’s the teaser: if it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?

The answer? 47 days. In just 24 hours, between day 47 and day 48, the lily pads would double in size and overtake the pond. Moreover, on day 40, the pond would still appear to be relatively clear; just eight days from the pond being completely covered, you’d hardly know the lily pads were there.

If the same thing happens with a virulent and highly contagious infectious agent, like the SARS-CoV-2 virus, you don’t know you’re in trouble until you wake up one morning to find that you’re overwhelmed. Like the lily pad example, the daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was 18,577 on June 15th—just three weeks later, on July 10th, the number had shot up to 66,281.

Dr. Anthony Fauci
Dr. Anthony Fauci

FLATTENING THE CURVE TO BEAT THE IMPENDING CLIFF

From early in the pandemic, the public health mantra worldwide has been: “flatten the curve.” That important concept, which was in vogue several months ago, seems largely forgotten today.

In the above graphic from the University of Michigan, the blue curve is the viral equivalent of the lily pads, suddenly covering the pond. It represents a large number of people (shown on the vertical axis) becoming infected over a short time (horizontal axis), and, in turn, overwhelming our health care system with people who need hospitalization, or even an Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

People won’t shop for non-essentials, fly, go to restaurants, theaters, and athletic events, or send their kids to school, when numbers of new cases are soaring.

If, however, political officials, individuals, and communities take steps to slow the virus’s spread, the cases of COVID-19 will stretch out across a more extended period, as depicted by the flatter, yellow curve. As long as the number of cases at any given time doesn’t bleed past the dotted line marking the capacity of our nation’s health care system, we’ll be able to accommodate everyone who is very sick.

Curve-flattening has fallen out of focus in recent months, in part because some political leaders reopened too aggressively and prematurely, basing policy on their constituents’ “pandemic fatigue,” instead of on the advice of epidemiologists and infectious disease experts.

But it’s still critical to avoid the pattern of the blue curve, not only to spare hospitals and ICUs—which are especially under stress in parts of Arizona, Florida, and Texas—but also so that we can continue the gradual reopening of the nation’s businesses and schools. Reopening relies on curve-flattening. As the NIH’s Dr. Tony Fauci says frequently, public health and economic considerations are not in opposition but are opposite sides of the same coin; we can’t fully restart and resume commerce until the pandemic is under some measure of control. People won’t shop for non-essentials, fly, go to restaurants, theaters, and athletic events, or send their kids to school, when numbers of new cases are soaring.

That means we need to start anticipating and stop playing catch-up—as the governors of Florida, Arizona, and Texas have been doing, relying on a combination of magical thinking, Happy Talk, and too-little-too-late remedies, instead of aggressive, evidence-based public health policies.

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, for instance, has offered no strategy for blunting the spike in COVID-19 cases other than to keep repeating that there were enough hospital beds to treat those who fall ill. And yet, ICU beds and ventilators in use by suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients in Arizona both hit new records on July 12th and were under stress, according to data reported by hospitals to the state.

On July 10th, a physicians group gathered outside Florida Governor DeSantis’s mansion in Tallahassee to urge him to issue an order mandating the use of face masks statewide, which arguably should have been done months ago. Masks have long been considered essential to slowing the spread of COVID-19, but, inexplicably, the Governor resisted. And only on July 10th did Texas Governor Greg Abbott finally mandate the wearing of face masks, and demand the prohibition of large gatherings and the closing of bars across the state.

Elected officials must heed Wayne Gretzky’s admonition and stay ahead of the coronavirus, in order to lower its rate of transmission. That’s the only way to slow the rise of new cases.

Evidence-based policies, such as requiring masks in public, prohibiting large indoor gatherings, and indoor dining at restaurants, are important. But as we’ve seen with California, even aggressive imposition of those kinds of strictures has not been sufficient—in large part because many people, especially younger ones, have failed to comply. As California allowed businesses and public places to reopen, bars, boardwalks, and beaches became crowded with large numbers of maskless patrons. It’s no wonder, then, that as of July 13th, hospitals in the state reported a 27.8% increase in hospitalized patients over the previous 14 days and a 19.9% increase in ICU patients over that same period. In fact, as a result of noncompliance, many local governments in the Golden State have had to coordinate with law enforcement agencies to issue citations and explore civil alternatives through code enforcement, environmental health, or other local government personnel.

Of course, the need for heightened consequences for noncompliance is unfortunate, but it will help to re-flatten the curve. That will spread out the demands on hospitals, which must have sufficient space, supplies, and healthy staff to care for all those who need hospital-level care—whether for COVID-19, a stroke, trauma, emergency surgery, or childbirth. It’s strong, but necessary, medicine—which possibly could have been avoided with more intense efforts to get the public to comply with wearing masks, social distancing, and frequent hand-washing.

If politicians properly understood their role in flattening the curve, they wouldn’t have to resort to policing and ticketing. They would instead launch a tsunami of public service announcements from all manner of dignitaries and celebrities, including prominent politicians, actors, rock stars, and athletes—maybe even The Great One himself—demonstrating how we can anticipate instead of falling behind the curve.

That non-coercive strategy could be a winner.


In this article:Coronavirus, Featured, large
Don't Miss:
For Coronavirus, the Name of the Game Is Minimizing the Probability of Infection.

Written By
Henry I. Miller, M.S., M.D.
Henry I. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Research Institute. He was the founding director of the FDA’s Office of Biotechnology.


https://humanevents.com/2020/07/14/flattening-the-curve-is-still-the-right-answer/

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667   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Jan 12, 12:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
Patrick says
How can we reach the police?

The good ones? they are resigning and getting fired. The bad ones? They can be reached with a thirty ought six.

OV is right on the cops. Here in IL the legislature had a bill drafted and then changed the name/number of it about 3-4 days ago. I believe voting on it this week It basically strips all protection from individual officers. Every single cop I know is legitimately thinking of getting a new job doing something else. At least in IL. Because of all this bullshit with Floyd (druggie) and the other guy from Kenosha refusing to listen and reaching for a knife.

We're literally not going to have a functional police force or at best a bunch of the crazy and bad cops running around making law as they go. All this because of a druggie and a wife beater. God bless America. lol. I guess progress sometimes takes a step back.
668   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Jan 12, 5:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
Patrick says
How can we reach the police?

The good ones? they are resigning and getting fired. The bad ones? They can be reached with a thirty ought six.

I would like to retract. I would never hurt anyone that wasn't immediately threatening me or someone I care about.

The police has been militarized for so long that anyone not in their club is considered enemy or civilian. And they can't tell which so they assume anyone that is not in uniform is an enemy until proven otherwise. They have been at war since the Anti-war riots of the late 70's. The war on drugs, the war on terror, and now the war on the invisible enemy. It would be hard to be a police officer if you weren't a brainwashed bully.

I still wouldn't indiscriminately kill a police officer just because they are the fist of tyranny.
669   MisdemeanorRebel   ignore (3)   2021 Jan 12, 5:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says


Dark and insurrectionist thought:

This will be used to assert we need to wear masks indefinitely. "It works so well on the Flu, too! It would be murdering grandma not to make masks permanent"
670   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2021 Jan 12, 8:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I heard some expert saying that with schools closed, the flu is not spreading because the flu starts with kids. I’m not buying it but they sure do try to hide the fact that Wuhan flu deaths are way overcounted.
671   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Jan 12, 8:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
It basically strips all protection from individual officers.

Can you expand on this? What protections will be stripped?
672   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Jan 13, 4:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WineHorror1 says
Can you expand on this? What protections will be stripped?

I haven't read the bill myself. It's something along the lines that an interaction with an individual, even if found guilty later, you could still personally be sued. So if you chase someone down after you see them shoot someone and during the takedown process you break the guys arm. I guess he can now sue you directly. Supposedly it's something along those lines. I'll try to look it up this morning or afternoon and clarify.

I know a ton a cops and it's a HUGE deal in their world. Even cops from outside the state are getting in on the protest. There are multiple part to it I guess, but the biggie is the protection of the individual cop. The fact they changed the name of the bill to something not similar to the first bill is pretty telling. They want to hide it. After the Dems here failed on progressive income taxes, they don't want another failure. They're blind and tone deaf though, trying to push through unpopular legislation.
673   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Jan 13, 4:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Screw it, did it now. Here's a bullet point list. You can read the article here: https://www.riverbender.com/articles/details/law-makers-in-illinois-trying-to-pass-police-reform-bill-46926.cfm

These are some highlights of the bill:

Eliminates Qualified Immunity for police officers, making them personally liable in civil suits.
Eliminates Officer’s rights to Collectively Bargain, creating a “special class” of public employee rights in Illinois that can only negotiate over wages and benefits!
No contractual language regarding discipline and discharge procedures for police officers.
Allows officers to be disciplined based on anonymous and unsubstantiated or unverifiable complaints.
Mandates that unverified complaints be kept with no time limit, no removal and no limits on.
Substantially increases both initial and ongoing training requirements but does not provide any funding for increased costs and no assurances that the courses will even be offered.
Mandates the use of body cameras by all departments for every officer but does not include money to pay for cameras.
Withholds money from any city that does not comply with the requirements of the legislation.
Eliminates funding for law enforcement agencies
Eliminates Cash Bail while enacting multiple benefits for people convicted of committing crimes.
674   RC2006   ignore (2)   2021 Jan 13, 6:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Illinois leaders are blessed with the ability to push the boundaries of what a hellscape should Look like. The voters there want to live in a lawless jungle.
675   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2021 Jan 14, 8:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      



Exactly 1 year ago.
677   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Jan 14, 10:06am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckCCP89 says
Exactly 1 year ago.

The one year ago link at the bottom is going to be interesting in the coming weeks and months.
678   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Feb 18, 5:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

According to the CDC's latest numbers 197 people under the age of 18 have died from this "Pandemic". An additional 1,612 aged between 18 and 29 have died. To round out those less than 50, 17,799 between 30 and 49 have died. Most of them had 2 or more comorbidities.

The real deaths start after retirement. 373,428 senior citizens aged 65 and over have died with covid.

It would be harsh to say they would have died anyway.

It's even more harsh the world they are building for us, "to protect the vulnerable".

This insanity has got to stop.
679   GlocknLoad   ignore (0)   2021 Feb 18, 8:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
It's even more harsh the world they are building for us, "to protect the vulnerable".

If all of this that is happening is about a virus, it would be so much cheaper if they simply protected the vulnerable and allowed them to vaccinate (err, I mean bio test) first...and only if they wanted the experimental concoction. But, nope, logic says it is not about a virus.
680   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 13, 10:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Two weeks to flatten the curve started a year ago.
681   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2021 Mar 14, 6:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
*The deep state/media/globalists fear mongering pushing* Two weeks to flatten the curve started a year ago.


Fixed it for you. The curve never was flattened and probably the curve is not even real seeing as how the CDC changed the rules for reporting “cases.”
682   theoakman   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 14, 6:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Flattening the curve was designed to reduce the peak but spread it out over a longer time period as to not overrun the healthcare system. A month into it, they transformed it into, reduce cases to baseline. At the beginning of summer, they instilled in people's minds that it would be a crime if anyone else got the virus from someone else.
683   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 14, 7:20am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The entire farce was intended to ruin the election on November 3.
The bastards succeeded.
The interesting thing is that the mass hysteria and panic spread so well that in some places people are still prisoners in their respective states and counties.
I’m running out of friends; those who hated Trump and who voted Biden, and a few Fauci sycophants and paranoid mask suckers.
The religious kooks still “forgive” me I guess.
684   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Mar 14, 7:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

theoakman says
At the beginning of summer, they instilled in people's minds that it would be a crime if anyone else got the virus from someone else.

This is the most deadly part of all this. Post Spanish flu, statistically this was just a really, really bad flu season. I'd like to see the per capita deaths for flu since the Spanish flu. The problem is even most flu deaths are from some other comorbidities anyway and not the flu itself. Media and government just changed the narrative.

Reality is people are going to die. We can't stop that. You have one life, enjoy it. Right now in a lot of places nobody is enjoying it. We've killed more people meddling in the ME, but those deaths are justified? (Some are)

I'm just glad I'm in an area that mostly give zero fucks about Covid. I saw two sides of the coin last night. Went to a Mexican place, mask needed to get in and temp taken. First I've had to deal with that in IL. After hours party went to a bar near my town. No mask, nothing. Staff didn't wear them. 100% normal. Place was packed too for St. Patricks day. Went bowling for my nephews birthday party. We outnumbered the Karen mom's but there were a few people wearing masks. It's so different all over.

I don't think I could do CA or even Chicago right now. Really any major or mid major city.
685   PeopleUnited   ignore (1)   2021 Mar 14, 6:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
You have one life, enjoy it.


Amen, and don’t waste your life running in fear of death, it will catch you eventually. 100% guaranteed. Better yet, prepare to die and live your life in power and peace. A life well lived is worth 1000 lifetimes lived in fear.
686   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 14, 8:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

People in the bay area are out and about and mingling, most in CA don't give two shits anymore, and esp. since the recall efforts some counties suddenly can't open fast enough. SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.
687   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Mar 14, 9:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm going to Texas Thursday for a few days.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how they handle it.
688   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 14, 10:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

PeopleUnited says
A life well lived is worth 1000 lifetimes lived in fear.



Tell that to the Karen-Kovid-Fear-KommieKunts, who endeavor and succeed in ruining it for the rest of us.
689   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Mar 14, 11:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

We shall have fun in spite of them!

They hate that.
690   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Mar 15, 12:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.

Fucking 9/11 all over again except localized now. "Terrorist" threat meter has now become virus meter that tracks a cold. We'll see what sticks this time.

I flew a decent amount as a kid prior to 9/11 and I recall it as basically just walking through a metal detector. I don't have the best memory. I know there was a bag scanner, but the overall vibe was extremely chill. I mean remember when you could get airside (through security) to great people landing instead of at baggage? I also believe on one of my very first flights as a kid you could still smoke. lol that was one good change even as a former smoker.

I'd be worried as a small business owner in the big cities though. At a moments notice you could probably be shut down now for something as mundane as people standing too close to each other.
691   RC2006   ignore (2)   2021 Mar 15, 8:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Dems shut down for covid and then dump covid infected illegals across country fuck them.
692   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 15, 9:02am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
mell says
SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.

Fucking 9/11 all over again except localized now. "Terrorist" threat meter has now become virus meter that tracks a cold. We'll see what sticks this time.

I flew a decent amount as a kid prior to 9/11 and I recall it as basically just walking through a metal detector. I don't have the best memory. I know there was a bag scanner, but the overall vibe was extremely chill. I mean remember when you could get airside (through security) to great people landing instead of at baggage? I also believe on one of my very first flights as a kid you could still smoke. lol that was one good change even as a former smoker.

I'd be worried as a small business owner in the big cities though. At a moments notice you could probably be shut down now for something as mundane as people standing too close to each other.


Absolutely it's worse for small business owners than private citizens whose work does not depend on the city tyrants. That's why SF and other metros will suffer for a long time while the rural areas will do better. We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.
693   RC2006   ignore (2)   2021 Mar 15, 9:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.


Where are you heading?
694   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 15, 9:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

SF used to be the "Nice place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there" kind of place. Even the charm of visiting San Francisco has faded.
695   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 15, 9:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RC2006 says
mell says
We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.


Where are you heading?


Wine Country.
696   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 15, 9:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says

Wine Country.

I grew up in Napa County. It's the kind of place you don't appreciate until you leave.
697   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 15, 9:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
mell says

Wine Country.

I grew up in Napa County. It's the kind of place you don't appreciate until you leave.


Agreed. And I'm also thinking we have the worst of wildfires behind us, a lot of brush that the corrupt and lazy govt left unchecked (likely for political reasons to promote the church of globull warming) finally burned off and the lessening solar activity should bring slightly cooler and less windy summers.
698   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 15, 9:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
a lot of brush that the corrupt and lazy govt left unchecked (likely for political reasons to promote the church of globull warming) finally burned off and the lessening solar activity should bring slightly cooler and less windy summers.

It grows back, fast.

Do not think that the fires are new. When I was a kid we would regularly have big fires. The back county fire roads were much better maintained and I did not remember the vast amounts of smoke, but fires were, are, a regular occurrence in wine country.

I do agree that the fire problem is a result of bad government. the California Conservation Corps www.ccc.ca.gov used to clear brush and build fire breaks before the Sierra Club forced the state to let the land "go back to nature".



699   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 18, 6:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

We might need to keep wearing masks into 2022 to defeat COVID-19

Despite a sharp decline in coronavirus cases and continued success with COVID-19 vaccines, it's looking likely we will still be wearing masks for some time to come.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's coronavirus czar, said it's possible masks could be needed until 2022.

"I want it to keep going down to a baseline that's so low there is virtually no threat," Fauci said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you're going to be able to say, you know, for the most part, we don't necessarily have to wear masks."

https://www.uniondemocrat.com/lifestyle/article_1930a45e-764b-11eb-aae5-2f0460438c73.html
700   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 18, 6:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I am so sick of this bullshit.

We are into year two of flattening the curve with no metric for ending, and no end in sight.
701   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 18, 8:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Who the fuck is this asshole. Go fuck yourself fauxci! One of the benefits of never tuning into lamestream media is that you never have to see his hackfresse.
703   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Apr 24, 10:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It’s been exactly one year since Trump suggested injecting bleach. We’ve never been the same.

One year ago today, President Donald Trump took to the White House briefing room and encouraged his top health officials to study the injection of bleach into the human body as a means of fighting Covid. It was a watershed moment, soon to become iconic in the annals of presidential briefings. It arguably changed the course of political history.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/trump-bleach-one-year-484399

Never mind that he never said that.
704   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Apr 24, 10:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Week 60 of two weeks to flatten the curve.
705   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2021 Apr 24, 11:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Has it been flattened yet?
706   Rb6d   ignore (0)   2021 Apr 24, 11:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckCCP89 says
Has it been flattened yet?

NO! AND IT WILL NEVER BE! Everything must be shut down!

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