2020 Jul 15, 3:31am
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As the numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths surge to record levels in multiple epicenters, local and state officials are struggling with whether and how much to reverse the rollback of restrictions on individuals and businesses. For example, following a gradual reopening over about a month, on Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the reintroduction of statewide restrictions that would again shut down bars, all indoor dining, family entertainment, zoos and museums following a surge in coronavirus cases. The governors of Florida, Texas, and Arizona, all now epicenters of infection, have also slowed or reversed reopening, but their actions have been tepid. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is even insisting on opening schools in the face of record-high numbers of infections. These officials would do well to recall the observation of The Great One. No, not Dr. Tony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health—the other one, hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, who once explained, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”Anticipating what’s coming is important in confronting an infectious disease, especially one whose dynamics are what many infectious disease experts consider their worst nightmare. COVID-19 is highly infectious, has a lengthy incubation period (during which asymptomatic infected persons can unwittingly shed virus and infect other people), and causes serious, sometimes fatal illness.Those unusual characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, and the idiosyncrasies and spectrum of presentations of the illness—from pulmonary symptoms (including pneumonia and pulmonary fibrosis) to a range of non-respiratory manifestations, (including loss of sense of smell or taste, confusion and cognitive impairments, fainting, sudden muscle weakness or paralysis, seizures, ischemic strokes, kidney damage, and, rarely, a severe pediatric inflammatory syndrome) mean that we are on a steep learning curve.The problem is: if we react too slowly to changing circumstances, we can fall off a metaphorical cliff.There’s an old brain teaser that perfectly illustrates this point. Consider a pond of a certain size, on which there is a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces and duplicates itself once a day, so that on day 2, you have two lily pads. On day 3, you have four; on day 4, you have eight; and so on. Here’s the teaser: if it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?The answer? 47 days. In just 24 hours, between day 47 and day 48, the lily pads would double in size and overtake the pond. Moreover, on day 40, the pond would still appear to be relatively clear; just eight days from the pond being completely covered, you’d hardly know the lily pads were there. If the same thing happens with a virulent and highly contagious infectious agent, like the SARS-CoV-2 virus, you don’t know you’re in trouble until you wake up one morning to find that you’re overwhelmed. Like the lily pad example, the daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was 18,577 on June 15th—just three weeks later, on July 10th, the number had shot up to 66,281.Dr. Anthony FauciDr. Anthony FauciFLATTENING THE CURVE TO BEAT THE IMPENDING CLIFFFrom early in the pandemic, the public health mantra worldwide has been: “flatten the curve.” That important concept, which was in vogue several months ago, seems largely forgotten today.In the above graphic from the University of Michigan, the blue curve is the viral equivalent of the lily pads, suddenly covering the pond. It represents a large number of people (shown on the vertical axis) becoming infected over a short time (horizontal axis), and, in turn, overwhelming our health care system with people who need hospitalization, or even an Intensive Care Unit (ICU).People won’t shop for non-essentials, fly, go to restaurants, theaters, and athletic events, or send their kids to school, when numbers of new cases are soaring.If, however, political officials, individuals, and communities take steps to slow the virus’s spread, the cases of COVID-19 will stretch out across a more extended period, as depicted by the flatter, yellow curve. As long as the number of cases at any given time doesn’t bleed past the dotted line marking the capacity of our nation’s health care system, we’ll be able to accommodate everyone who is very sick.Curve-flattening has fallen out of focus in recent months, in part because some political leaders reopened too aggressively and prematurely, basing policy on their constituents’ “pandemic fatigue,” instead of on the advice of epidemiologists and infectious disease experts.But it’s still critical to avoid the pattern of the blue curve, not only to spare hospitals and ICUs—which are especially under stress in parts of Arizona, Florida, and Texas—but also so that we can continue the gradual reopening of the nation’s businesses and schools. Reopening relies on curve-flattening. As the NIH’s Dr. Tony Fauci says frequently, public health and economic considerations are not in opposition but are opposite sides of the same coin; we can’t fully restart and resume commerce until the pandemic is under some measure of control. People won’t shop for non-essentials, fly, go to restaurants, theaters, and athletic events, or send their kids to school, when numbers of new cases are soaring.That means we need to start anticipating and stop playing catch-up—as the governors of Florida, Arizona, and Texas have been doing, relying on a combination of magical thinking, Happy Talk, and too-little-too-late remedies, instead of aggressive, evidence-based public health policies. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, for instance, has offered no strategy for blunting the spike in COVID-19 cases other than to keep repeating that there were enough hospital beds to treat those who fall ill. And yet, ICU beds and ventilators in use by suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients in Arizona both hit new records on July 12th and were under stress, according to data reported by hospitals to the state. On July 10th, a physicians group gathered outside Florida Governor DeSantis’s mansion in Tallahassee to urge him to issue an order mandating the use of face masks statewide, which arguably should have been done months ago. Masks have long been considered essential to slowing the spread of COVID-19, but, inexplicably, the Governor resisted. And only on July 10th did Texas Governor Greg Abbott finally mandate the wearing of face masks, and demand the prohibition of large gatherings and the closing of bars across the state.Elected officials must heed Wayne Gretzky’s admonition and stay ahead of the coronavirus, in order to lower its rate of transmission. That’s the only way to slow the rise of new cases.Evidence-based policies, such as requiring masks in public, prohibiting large indoor gatherings, and indoor dining at restaurants, are important. But as we’ve seen with California, even aggressive imposition of those kinds of strictures has not been sufficient—in large part because many people, especially younger ones, have failed to comply. As California allowed businesses and public places to reopen, bars, boardwalks, and beaches became crowded with large numbers of maskless patrons. It’s no wonder, then, that as of July 13th, hospitals in the state reported a 27.8% increase in hospitalized patients over the previous 14 days and a 19.9% increase in ICU patients over that same period. In fact, as a result of noncompliance, many local governments in the Golden State have had to coordinate with law enforcement agencies to issue citations and explore civil alternatives through code enforcement, environmental health, or other local government personnel.Of course, the need for heightened consequences for noncompliance is unfortunate, but it will help to re-flatten the curve. That will spread out the demands on hospitals, which must have sufficient space, supplies, and healthy staff to care for all those who need hospital-level care—whether for COVID-19, a stroke, trauma, emergency surgery, or childbirth. It’s strong, but necessary, medicine—which possibly could have been avoided with more intense efforts to get the public to comply with wearing masks, social distancing, and frequent hand-washing. If politicians properly understood their role in flattening the curve, they wouldn’t have to resort to policing and ticketing. They would instead launch a tsunami of public service announcements from all manner of dignitaries and celebrities, including prominent politicians, actors, rock stars, and athletes—maybe even The Great One himself—demonstrating how we can anticipate instead of falling behind the curve.That non-coercive strategy could be a winner. In this article:Coronavirus, Featured, largeDon't Miss:For Coronavirus, the Name of the Game Is Minimizing the Probability of Infection.Written ByHenry I. Miller, M.S., M.D.Henry I. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Research Institute. He was the founding director of the FDA’s Office of Biotechnology.
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Patrick saysHow can we reach the police?The good ones? they are resigning and getting fired. The bad ones? They can be reached with a thirty ought six.
How can we reach the police?
It basically strips all protection from individual officers.
Can you expand on this? What protections will be stripped?
Exactly 1 year ago.
It's even more harsh the world they are building for us, "to protect the vulnerable".
*The deep state/media/globalists fear mongering pushing* Two weeks to flatten the curve started a year ago.
At the beginning of summer, they instilled in people's minds that it would be a crime if anyone else got the virus from someone else.
You have one life, enjoy it.
A life well lived is worth 1000 lifetimes lived in fear.
SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.
mell saysSF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.Fucking 9/11 all over again except localized now. "Terrorist" threat meter has now become virus meter that tracks a cold. We'll see what sticks this time. I flew a decent amount as a kid prior to 9/11 and I recall it as basically just walking through a metal detector. I don't have the best memory. I know there was a bag scanner, but the overall vibe was extremely chill. I mean remember when you could get airside (through security) to great people landing instead of at baggage? I also believe on one of my very first flights as a kid you could still smoke. lol that was one good change even as a former smoker. I'd be worried as a small business owner in the big cities though. At a moments notice you could probably be shut down now for something as mundane as people standing too close to each other.
We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.
mell saysWe activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.Where are you heading?
mell saysWine Country.I grew up in Napa County. It's the kind of place you don't appreciate until you leave.
a lot of brush that the corrupt and lazy govt left unchecked (likely for political reasons to promote the church of globull warming) finally burned off and the lessening solar activity should bring slightly cooler and less windy summers.
Despite a sharp decline in coronavirus cases and continued success with COVID-19 vaccines, it's looking likely we will still be wearing masks for some time to come.Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's coronavirus czar, said it's possible masks could be needed until 2022."I want it to keep going down to a baseline that's so low there is virtually no threat," Fauci said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you're going to be able to say, you know, for the most part, we don't necessarily have to wear masks."
One year ago today, President Donald Trump took to the White House briefing room and encouraged his top health officials to study the injection of bleach into the human body as a means of fighting Covid. It was a watershed moment, soon to become iconic in the annals of presidential briefings. It arguably changed the course of political history.
Has it been flattened yet?
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