patrick.net

I have an anecdote.
My friend is a retired professor of economics with a PhD in economics from Harvard.
He suggested that I buy some crypto, but not more than 1/2 of 1% of my financial net worth.

He said it's a scam; it's similar to gambling, but with better odds.

More recently he called to vent about his stress about cash flow; "I owe about 1 million and I'm not sure how I'm going to service the debt."

He used his house as a piggy bank to buy other things; one is a small apartment building which failed an inspection and he was dropped by the insurance company.

Anyway, it seems he has a gambler mentality and for this reason likes crypto.

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When a center-left and pro-fiat currency organization (Brookings Institute) states that Bitcoin is "here to stay" no matter bad or worse for the American public, then that says Bitcoin will be a viable digital asset

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-brutal-truth-about-bitcoin/

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clambo says

I have an anecdote.
My friend is a retired professor of economics with a PhD in economics from Harvard.
He suggested that I buy some crypto, but not more than 1/2 of 1% of my financial net worth.

He said it's a scam; it's similar to gambling, but with better odds.

More recently he called to vent about his stress about cash flow; "I owe about 1 million and I'm not sure how I'm going to service the debt."

He used his house as a piggy bank to buy other things; one is a small apartment building which failed an inspection and he was dropped by the insurance company.

Anyway, it seems he has a gambler mentality and for this reason likes crypto.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Most major Wall Street pundits like " The Mooch " stated on Bloomberg TV to buy a major brokerage house's Bitcoin ETF (like Blackrock or Fidelity) and to put no more than 3% of assets in the Bitcoin ETF.

The same pundits said to hedge with no more than 6% of assets in gold and silver and 6% in oil and gas stocks.

Yeah, as far as the primary house serving as a piggy bank (collateral for "lower risk" or "prime" loans) such as with a HELOC or reverse mortgage , that may be needed.

It is for a family member who owns a $1.1 million appraised mountain home in Colorado and needs the money for at least the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs of that home.

I helped them secured a reverse mortgage with a total variable rate of Continuous Maturity Treasury + 1.25% margin rate + 0.5% FHA mortgage rate, which right now is around 6.5% for 2024.

The bank set a limit of borrowing 50% of 80% of the value of the home, so 50% of $880,000 over my family member's remaining life.

They took $155,000 upfront and $80,000 of that went to pay off a HELOC which was at the prime rate of 8.5%, and the remainder $75,000 they wanted to keep in a bank account.

I convinced them to at least put the $75,000 in a 60% investment-grade bond / 40% stocks fund, which earns about 6.5% a year since the early 1990s.

The closing cost for the reverse mortgage was $21,000. The mortgage broker fee was $4000 and likely spent no more than 20 hours on this reverse mortgage.

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When a center-left and pro-fiat currency organization (Brookings Institute) states that Bitcoin is "here to stay" no matter bad or worse for the American public, then that says Bitcoin will be a viable digital asset

Ever wonder why Larry Fink of Blackrock has adopted Bitcoin ?

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-brutal-truth-about-bitcoin

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-took-stakes-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-q2-filings-show-2024-08-14

Aug 14 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab purchased a total of more than $600 million in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during the second quarter, regulatory filings showed on Wednesday.

The two banks joined a group of hedge funds and financial advisers that have waded into the products, which began trading in January 2024.

Goldman Sachs said in its quarterly disclosure to the Securities and Exchange Commission, known as a 13-F filing, that it had acquired about $418 million in several of the recently launched ETFs tied to the price of spot bitcoin.

Fellas, Bitcoin is what's called a dumb 'Web 3.0' type of situation where any basic trend following strategy will work when it's in a bullish cycle. The following is a simple Heinken-Ashi (H-A) candlestick following pattern. Basically, when the price ticker is trading above the 120 day exponential moving average, just follow the H-A computed candles. Three up (green) candles is a buy, two down (red) candles is a close. As you can see, given the bullishness on this, a basic system is profitable ...



So don't invest in it, just trade it.

And I don't believe in the eGold theory.

FYI, I only use H-A computations if there's both a disparity between two EMAs & there's no convergence between 'em in place. Otherwise, it tends to produce a lot of losers when markets consolidate.

Rin says

So don't invest in it, just trade it.

Bingo. I've been saying that for years here and I'm not a stock analysis junkie or wiz. I suppose you could hold some thinking the game will go on forever, but what's the point in sinking money into it and not taking profits... in fiat... lol.

People will always be selling it. The biggest issue I have with it is unlike stocks nothing is reported. We really have no clue how many bitcoins are in actual circulation. We don't know if one person or company owns half of them and can yo yo the price. Sell at a peak and buy more at the bottom. Rinse and repeat. For that reason I won't touch it. One entity having that much power is scary and bad. And is likely a reality.

WookieMan says

I'm not a stock analysis junkie or wiz.

Well, if you put it like that ... I'm calling BitCoin an echo chamber of the Web3.0 phenomena. Just look at BitCoin vs the Nasdaq100/QQQ for the past ten years ...



Not much analysis needed, it echoes the sentiment of the tech sector and its broken promises.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

If Bitcoin is not private, how is it that ransomwares crooks are able to take payment in Bitcoin without getting traced and caught?

HeadSet says

ransomwares crooks are able to take payment in Bitcoin without getting traced and caught?

You seem to confuse lack of effort/motivation with lack of observed results.

Governments who trace it don't give a shit about ransomeware and the perps tend to be outside their jurisdiction anyway.

Same as for any other financial scam.

Only main diff is that it operates outside the banking system so it would be impossible to retrieve it w/o the passphrases unless some big computational code cracking is applied.

HeadSet says

If Bitcoin is not private

What do you mean 'not private'? It's a public ledger. Lightning and other protocols that operate on top of that like the eurodollar system in that it removes most transaction activity at the time they happen. But eventually they update the BC ledger.

There are dark web exchanges that 'washes' BC too. But that is true of all kinds of currency. The fact you need to use them to maintain some anonymity proves BC isn't private as well.

This true?

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yep, go back to 2016 and the cost to mine a BTC was more than the price of BTC

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Bitcoin is more fiat than the fiat that you need to buy it with and the fiat you get when you sell it.

It's not even a good gamble.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Onvacation says

Bitcoin is more fiat than the fiat that you need to buy it with and the fiat you get when you sell it.

It's not even a good gamble.

do ya think it's going to the moon and replacing the dollar?

Hey Bitcoin Fluffers!

How's the butthurt going?

Bitcoin is an invention to siphon off excess cash/liquidity caused by 2 decades of ZIRP and the collapse of the US industrial economy. I half expect a Harris/Waltz executive order to convert SS contributions to bitcoins.

The chief advantage of gold over bitcoin is that I can eat my gold, shit it out in the toilet, and recollect it unscathed. Let's try that with a bit wallet.

Butthurt why? Because of the volatility? That's how I've made a ton of money from it.

stereotomy says

The chief advantage of gold over bitcoin is that I can eat my gold, shit it out in the toilet, and recollect it unscathed. Let's try that with a bit wallet.

You can do the same with a lot more value simply etching your seed phrase on some non-reactive metal. Or your key. All you really need to store bitcorn is your brain or a pencil and paper. So there is really no need to eat shit if your goal is to sneak out of the country.

SoTex says

That's how I've made a ton of money from it.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

SoTex says

That's how I've made a ton of money from it.

SoTex says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

SoTex says

That's how I've made a ton of money from it.

Yes, it does.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

It goes through an extended period (more than 3 to 5 years) of moving sideways.

The fact that Larry Fink of Blackrock endorsed Bitcoin and that it is readily available to institutional and retail investors through Bitcoin ETFs is enough to realize its here to stay.

As a fiat currency hedge, invest no more than 3% of assets or equivalent to one-half of a Bitcoin, whichever is greater.

Invest 8% of assets in silver and gold, and 8% in an oil and gas ETF; so 19% of assets are hedged.

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AD says

The fact that Larry Fink of Blackrock endorsed Bitcoin and that it is readily available to institutional and retail investors through Bitcoin ETFs is enough to realize its here to stay.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

AD says

The fact that Larry Fink of Blackrock endorsed Bitcoin and that it is readily available to institutional and retail investors through Bitcoin ETFs is enough to realize its here to stay.

Read what Larry Fink of Blackrock has publicly stated recently about Bitcoin, specifically after Bitcoin ETFs were made available to retail investors.

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AD says

Read what Larry Fink of Blackrock has publicly stated recently about Bitcoin, specifically after Bitcoin ETFs were made available to retail investors.

So Fucking What?

AD says

Read what Larry Fink of Blackrock has publicly stated recently about Bitcoin, specifically after Bitcoin ETFs were made available to retail investors.

That's because they own a lot. I don't care the fiat price tagged to it. It's a penny stock trading wise. One person can own a bunch and move it and we have no clue. It's marketing. It's not a hedge. And it's not here to stay. You're better off buying a Cyber Truck and holding onto it for 40 years. Once they stop production it will go through the roof value wise. Literally the reason people are buying them. Buy it and toss it in a garage for 40 years under a cover and you have a $400-600k car.

Hoping to make it another 40 years, but you could always pass it down to your kids. I wish I never got rid of my Pontiac Aztek. People would spend big money on it now. Not 6 figures, but worth more than what it was purchased for.

AD says

As a fiat currency hedge, invest no more than 3% of assets or equivalent to one-half of a Bitcoin, whichever is greater.

Bitcoin is the most fiat of fiats. You buy it with fiat. It’s valued in fiat. You sell it for fiat. What it's not is an investment.

Play with it like you would a slot machine. Put your money in in the hopes of a payout, but don't be surprised if you lose it.

AD says

Larry Fink of Blackrock

Had to look him up


Not a fan.

Onvacation says

Not a fan.

Don't bet against Larry Fink, which means don't bet against or count out Bitcoin.

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Thing about gold is that if the price drops 70%, you still got the gold.

If Bitcoin drops 70%, it's probable that all the Bitcoin miners go bust because of the continuing expense of mining it. Then Bitcoin goes to ZERO because it requires the miners to have any value at all.

So, with Bitcoin there is an event horizon where it gets sucked into nothingness.

AD says

Don't bet against Larry Fink, which means don't bet against or count out Bitcoin.

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!

SoTex says

Because of the volatility? That's how I've made a ton of money from it.

Market timing?

Misc says

Thing about gold is that if the price drops 70%, you still got the gold.

If Bitcoin drops 70%, it's probable that all the Bitcoin miners go bust because of the continuing expense of mining it. Then Bitcoin goes to ZERO because it requires the miners to have any value at all.

So, with Bitcoin there is an event horizon where it gets sucked into nothingness.

This guy gets it. Trade it in the meantime if you like risk. 95% likely don't have the appetite for it. So you have 5% of crypto buyers on the planet and it's likely that 90% is owned by 10 people and the others lost their key and don't even know they own any.

1) "J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have called it a "bubble"[130] and a "fraud",[131] respectively. However, Dimon said later he regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_bubble#Characterization_as_'bubble'

2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_bitcoin#Obituaries

AD says

Dimon said later he regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud

He meant "gamble". It still has as much real value as a lottery ticket until you cash out.

I suspect it will soon go over $100k. If you had bought 1 "coin" a year ago it would be worth 264% more now.