patrick.net

Patrick says

Choking levels of taxation, months of choking levels smoke in the air, highest levels of ethnic diversity in the US causing the lowest levels of civic participation (exactly as predicted at http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/ ).

Full of violently intolerant leftists, mask Nazis, corrupt state government, companies that research your background for utter conformity to political correctness before making any offer.

Smog, tap water that tastes like nail polish. And everything in the state crazy expensive.

It's not just nice beaches and weather.

Thank you for being honest. My intent isn't to bash CA. I'm sure it's a fine place to live and I have vacationed there almost a dozen times now. There are a lot of problems, just like any place in the country.

Patrick says

Choking levels of taxation, months of choking levels smoke in the air, highest levels of ethnic diversity in the US causing the lowest levels of civic participation (exactly as predicted at http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/ ).

Full of violently intolerant leftists, mask Nazis, corrupt state government, companies that research your background for utter conformity to political correctness before making any offer.

Smog, tap water that tastes like nail polish. And everything in the state crazy expensive.

It's not just nice beaches and weather.

Which tap water? The tap water from SF mainly comes from hetch hetchy in Yosemite - one of the highest quality waters in the country - and is treated with Chloramine instead of Chlorine - it actually tastes pretty good and has good lab values. don't know about the peninsula and south bay, but the tap water is def decent here. When I travel it usually tastes worse in almost all destinations. The frequent wind keeps smog at bay, but of course that makes it colder together with the fog. Not my favorite climate but not the worst either. The main thing is they need to get the pollution from forest fires under control, followed by reducing traffic exhaust in denser areas such as the bay area.

mell says

it actually tastes pretty good and has good lab values

Maybe it has good lab values, but it REEKS of nail polish to me. Even from a distance. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's definitely nothing good.

I got a Britta charcoal filter for our tap, and that removes most of the smell and taste.

Wife could not taste it and didn't believe me, so she had me do a taste test at a party we had. She said one glass was filtered and two were not, and I was to pick the filtered one.

One tasted fine, the other tasted the usual horrible, and the third one was kinda halfway.

I was a big winner that day, because I was exactly right. One was filtered, one was not, and one was half and half.

Most people could not tell, but a Chinese guy at the party got the exact same result that I did. I think it must be some genetic thing where different people taste and smell things differently.

Patrick says

mell says

it actually tastes pretty good and has good lab values

Maybe it has good lab values, but it REEKS of nail polish to me. Even from a distance. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's definitely nothing good.

I got a Britta charcoal filter for our tap, and that removes most of the smell and taste.

Wife could not taste it and didn't believe me, so she had me do a taste test at a party we had. She said one glass was filtered and two were not, and I was to pick the filtered one.

One tasted fine, the other tasted the usual horrible, and the third one was kinda halfway.

I was a big winner that day, because I was exactly right. One was filtered, one was not, and one was half and half.

Most people could not tell, but a Chinese guy at the party got the exact same result that I did. I think it must be some genetic thing where different people taste and smell things differently.

Could be but could also be bad pipes locally or in the municipality. Or maybe it's the ammonia part of Chloramine and you can filter out Chloramine via reverse osmosis or charcoal. I def can't taste it and have not met anyone who complained. If you travel and go somewhere where Chlorine is used you can taste the Chlorine much more than anything from the Chloramine, but nail polish is a very distinct smell ;) Filters definitely help a lot. We should repeat that taste test some time!

Someone once told me that they use a certain kind of grease in the pipes and some people don't like the smell.

It's worst in Sacramento, but the whole Bay Area is bad tasting to me.

Davis and Chico had good water if I recall correctly.

NW San Antonio had great tasting water when I was a kid. Minerals make it taste good and that water comes from the Edward's Aquifer which is limestone. There were spots where if you knew about them you could drink it coming from the ground. That limestone is a hellava filter.

I used to drink it straight from the faucet and in a glass it would look like a snow globe from all of the calcium that came through.

Tastes like chlorinated shit now. I'm not sure if it's chlorine or what but the water at my parents latest house tastes 'treated'.

I used hi-grade water filtration in San Diego. Our tap water is only one level above fire hydrant grade.

I filtered the hell out of peninsula water as well and don't recall what it tastes like pre-filter. I think a lot of that water comes from Crystal Springs Reservoir, no?

There used to be a spring on the downslope of 92 leading to half moon bay. There was literally a pipe someone stuck in the side of the hill and water continuously coming out of the pipe, and I think there was a sign saying which spring it was. It was very good water. I used to go there and fill up water-cooler jugs.

But now it's gone. I don't know how that happened.

Patrick says

Maybe it has good lab values, but it REEKS of nail polish to me. Even from a distance. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's definitely nothing good.

My wife gives me shit all the time about smells/tastes/senses basically. With any sense there's people that are more in tune with that sense. I'd notice the difference in water in a heartbeat. So I hear ya Patrick.

It's awful, but I can hear bats. My uncle used to work for Motorola testing headsets and his job was to eliminate that type of frequency because he could hear it. There's not a huge population out there that can hear that frequency, but they'd be miserable if they bought a headset or ear piece that allowed it to come through. So they had a guy for that. After a while they just figured out how to remove that problem forever, so he lost his job. This sounds like a joke, but it's not. This was the late 70's to 80's.

Patrick says

I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.

So now I'm technically retired, and I got this email from Schwab today:

How Can I Stop Living Paycheck to Paycheck?

By Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz

Living paycheck to paycheck can feel like you're on an endless financial treadmill. Here's how to jump off.

I stopped living paycheck to paycheck by no longer getting paychecks!

Apropos of nothing, I was in a Juno Beach charity second hand store and chatted with the guy in there.

I check them out sometimes while I’m in the area, on my way to Dunkin.

He was from a nice part of LA and retired out here.

I’m bumping into guys from California more than I did a few years ago.

Bought an oil painting with old ships, it looks like Francis Swaine, but I’m not sure.

Patrick says

I stopped living paycheck to paycheck by no longer getting paychecks!

Congrats and enjoy retirement! Any travel plans???

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Patrick says

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Nice, Idaho and Utah are beautiful too. And taking my wife to Yellowstone Park (rented a nice jeep) was one of my favorite vacations. I've never really been in Washington other than Seattle.

Interesting plots of stock market returns:





from https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/stock-market-returns-are-anything-but-average/

Going up 40%, then down 40% doesn't put you back at the starting point. I'd like to see this plot with a dB change scale, so going up 1 dB and then down 1 dB puts you back at starting point.

Good point. The first 40% up is 40% of a smaller number, so 40% up then down leaves you at 84% of original number:

1.4 * 0.6 = 0.84

Still, on average you do win in the stock market. It's like a casino with an upward bias, unlike Vegas casinos.

Patrick says

Good point. The first 40% up is 40% of a smaller number, so 40% up then down leaves you at 84% of original number:

1.4 * 0.6 = 0.84

Still, on average you do win in the stock market. It's like a casino with an upward bias, unlike Vegas casinos.

Also you can't compound the numbers in that graph so you're not really going up 40% from the starting point if you make 40% 2 years in a row. But def looks like a casino with a healthy upward bias.

I only want 5% higher W5000.

I would prefer not much more capital appreciation if I would not pay high taxes.

But, I'm afraid we're fucked after 2025 when the Bush tax cuts expire. Add Biden tax raises and feel the pain.

clambo says

we're fucked after 2025 when the Bush tax cuts expire

@clambo What are the details of those Bush tax cuts?

One tax which is going up automatically is the capital gains tax.

I’m going to be fucked it looks like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5U9mV7ombQ

Houses that would normally have 5 to 15 offers aren't getting any: John Pasalis

Houses in my area (NorCal) are flying off the shelves. 2-3 days sell time when a house comes up, zero inventory (except trash pits.)

rocketjoe79 says

Houses in my area (NorCal) are flying off the shelves. 2-3 days sell time when a house comes up, zero inventory (except trash pits.)

I've said it before. A family of 4 was given $160k of purchase power with the last round of stimulus round alone. $5,600 down on FHA or conventional.

We're going to see a quick spike as the inventory is eaten up and people burn their stimulus. Won't be a crash, but wouldn't touch housing right now. People given free money do stupid shit. 12-24 months they'll be delinquent. Getting a downpayment doesn't mean you can pay it. We're at a peak or about to be. Probably will just stagnate without further money printing and stimulus. I know there's inflation everywhere, but I think a lot of working families got a free government check for a down payment.

CA is an anomaly, so I can't predict that. Most the country will go sideways or slight decline without even more inflation. Shit, my airline points doubled from what I usually pay to DEN. 6-8k points was the norm for a non-stop. 15k for my June trip to Red Rocks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ui7DWkaBNoI

Bidding wars calm down as sellers come to market

Excellent analysis of the Tampa area:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCd5kjDXk7o

One thing they guy is showing how deaths are going to influence housing availability.

I would not expect Florida real estate to "crash" because there is high demand from people escaping taxes, fucked politics, crime and snow.

The scenery and weather aren't as good as California, but they're mostly coming from NYC, NJ, Michigan and other places that kind of suck.

clambo says

I would not expect Florida real estate to "crash" because there is high demand from people escaping taxes, fucked politics, crime and snow.

The scenery and weather aren't as good as California, but they're mostly coming from NYC, NJ, Michigan and other places that kind of suck.

As expensive as Tampa is right now, I would not be surprised to see it correct. Not at the 50% level, but at some meaningful level yes.

Does anyone have any good stock tips and reason behind it?

Thinking of adding to my S&P500, QQQ, and reits. AAPL and TMO are also on my list. Appreciate any feedback.

Taiwan semiconductor. Everyone needs their products and demand has consistently continued to grow. They are always ahead of their competition on technology as well.

clambo says

I would not expect Florida real estate to "crash"

theoakman says

Taiwan semiconductor

Thanks!! just reading up on it. Will add that one to my portfolio....they have a gross margin of 50% and operating margin of 40%. Morningstar determines fair value at 133......stock is trading at 116.

We're getting solicitations to sell all the time now. Passive stack has gone up many fleet Hummers since January with lots left over for hookers and blow. I hope it makes up for the value burning inflationary spiral at least.

Bitcoin says

Does anyone have any good stock tips and reason behind it?

@Bitcoin

I still think SHOP has longer to go on its epic bull run because they are the dominant way to set up a commercial website.

I think FRO is crazy undervalued. I don't know why that is, but it's so cheap and revenue keeps increasing, so I bought some.

I think LUV will easily regain its former highs and keep going because their customer service is so superior to other airlines'.

I would avoid any cannabis-related stocks. I got slaughtered on each one I bought. I guess it's ultimately just a commodity.

Funeral homes might do well if lots more people do drop dead from the "vaccine", so I'm considering SCI, which has a p/e of only 14 and a dividend. It's sad, but hey, I'm not the one murdering all those people with viruses and "vaccines", Fauci is.

I bought some shares in LAND, a small REIT which buys farmland.

Overall, I think the market is too high and could easily crash and stay down for years, as it has twice before in my memory. I'm willing to wait that out.

Patrick says

Bitcoin says

Does anyone have any good stock tips and reason behind it?

@Bitcoin

I still think SHOP has longer to go on its epic bull run because they are the dominant way to set up a commercial website.

I think FRO is crazy undervalued. I don't know why that is, but it's so cheap and revenue keeps increasing, so I bought some.

I think LUV will easily regain its former highs and keep going because their customer service is so superior to other airlines'.

I would avoid any cannabis-related stocks. I got slaughtered on each one I bought. I guess it's ultimately just a commodity.

Funeral homes might do well if lots more people do drop dead from the "vaccine", so I'm considering SCI, which has a p/e of only 14 and a dividend. It's sad, but hey, I'm not the one murdering all those people with viruses and "vaccines", Fauci is.

I bought some shares in LAN...

@Patrick the cash to debt ratio for FRO is horrendous. That's why they're undervalued. If they can stay profitable, grow net revs and keep chipping away at the debt while servicing it it's a great stock which could net crazy gains but you have to bet on a continued rebound for years. Any crisis will rapidly increase the debt again and wipe out prior progress. That's why it's possible that they will do a capital raise to pay off more debt and dilute soon. Esp. if the price keeps climbing. That being said, it's probably one of the best shippers to own. Spot prices have been rising and the outlook is decent. High insider ownership is also a good sign.

Maybe it's a question of interest rates. As long as rates are artificially held near zero, they can support quite a lot of debt.

Patrick says

Maybe it's a question of interest rates. As long as rates are artificially held near zero, they can support quite a lot of debt.

Yeah as long as they can roll it over and find lenders it's fine. We have expected rates to rise now for almost 10 years and they have neared and stayed at historic lows. Also I noticed that there quarterly growth has been slumping but that may likely have been Covid standstill and the whole industry is coming out of it now.

6 months later, the stock market and the housing market, both, are at all time high. 🤑🤑🤑

Now, the question is are we in a bubble?

Easy to answer that:

Is the cost of owning more than the cost of renting the same thing over the typical 6 or 7 year holding period for a house?

You can use the NY Slimes rent-vs-buy calculator.

You haven’t changed your flawed thesis Patrick. 👍