patrick.net

Hircus says

Predictions of the next 5-10 years?

A lost decade, or full steam ahead due to printing presses?

According to Piper Sandler, we’re in a secular bull market which should last till 2030 or so before we enter a secular bear market (multi-years).

Cyclical bear market can happen within the secular bull market, but the general trend should still be up. I’ll leave this chart from Piper Sandler here.

From a historical perspective, an average 17% correction is expected during the midterm election years.

https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1480754093689876485?s=21&source=patrick.net

Eman says

17% correction is expected

Pricing stuff with the fiat money is complicated nowadays.

Something stinks. I smell the plunge protection team.

"Stocks have never been down so far, so fast in a year"

AmericanKulak says

"Stocks have never been down so far, so fast in a year"

Did you mean in a month? If that’s the case, did you forget March 2020?

FJB says

Something stinks. I smell the plunge protection team.

Yep, they will keep plugging any major correction.

Eman says

AmericanKulak says

"Stocks have never been down so far, so fast in a year"

Did you mean in a month? If that’s the case, did you forget March 2020?

Here is the article I pulled that from:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/market-never-plunged-10-fast-173607529.html?source=patrick.net

Q1 2020 was an unbelievable buying opportunity....they dont come often.....buy the dip in stocks and HODL!

I almost want to make some money and buy more but I guess I’m lazy.

According to the government, I will be around for 20 years if I am average life expectancy.

I’m betting I’m above average (Lake Wobegone).

So, I assume I have 10 years of capital appreciation.
10 year negative returns are rare in the stock market.

I of course hate to see my pile shrink, who doesn’t?
I hope it’s fleeting.

Looks like the PPT busy again on Tuesday.

clambo says

According to the government, I will be around for 20 years if I am average life expectancy.

20 years of useless eater sucking of resources and your social security benefits. DIE, PARASITE, FUCKING DIE ALREADY! Unless, of course, you are one of the Satanist elites and have put in a nice supply of adrenochrome and stem cells.

The Globalist Guv will do everything it can to kill everybody over 60, and then fake the stats to make it look like everybody lives to 90.

How else are they gonna get the votes?

We Are Being Warned That A Horrifying STOCK MARKET CRASH Which Could Wipe Out Trillions Has Now Begun
January 23, 2022 by Michael Snyder
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/we-are-being-warned-that-a-horrifying-stock-market-crash-which-could-wipe-out-trillions-has-now-begun/?source=patrick.net

Not sure what to make of the above, probably just more fear porn, they’ve been banging the drum for stock market collapse since 2008.

Social security payments are fleeting, an illusion.
If you depend on the money to live, you saved no money. You’re almost broke.Your life sucks.

If you saved money in IRAs, SEP-IRA, HSA, variable annuity, and regular accounts, you’ll have some retirement income sufficient to owe the Treasury almost what you get in social security payments.

Of course, Medicare has a lifetime “premium” deducted, starting at $144/month but it is increased as your income increases, so they take $204/month out of my social security payment.

I calculate my income would be higher if I had not contributed to social security and had just bought a variable annuity over the years.

ZIRP increased the price of assets, for sure, but did it increase the price of beef, gas and cars? Supply chain issues (COVID overreaction) and free money to combat the criminal COVID lockdowns and economic destruction caused prices to rise. Will raising interest rates only temper asset price inflation? Will consumables inflation subside on its own, once the madness ends? Already there will not be more bazooka free money, unless the Dems get really desperate around midterms. It is possible that inflation will slow and subside on its own, relieving the Fed of the need to QT and raise rates. Stay tuned.

Wages are also going up, at least entry level jobs are up $3-$5 per hour, and they still can’t find people who want to work

We are already in for a flat to slightly down stock market for the year.
It's past time to tame the housing market.

DooDahMan says

Fed must ‘inflict more losses’ on stock-market investors to tame inflation, says former central banker. ‘Fed will have to shock the market’ if financial conditions don’t tighten: former N.Y. Fed chief Dudley

So weird to read this sort of shit, because I remember when the USSR's "centrally planned economy" was constantly pointed to as an example of a bad idea. And it was a bad idea.

I wonder if the Fed doesn't intend to inflict the most damage possible on people? I'm paranoid enough to think they would. They can do that by raising interest rates to say, 5%, or even 10% - that would kill just about everybody, except the banks that get to borrow as much money as they wish from the Fed at about 0% interest rates.

It would crush the housing market, destroy the stock market, and there would be a rush to buy the dollar. Everybody that has debt without a fixed interest rate would be screwed. It would cause calls on the stockmarket as margins get tighter. Hmm, we'll see.

KgK one says

Stocks reacting by making market down.

They say bottom is near. Feel like another 20% more yo go

SP up about 83 points since the date of the original post.

Up about 2%, - annual rate of about 7%.

The Sky Is Falling Down.

Never assume that a disastrous policy decision is the result of a mistake and not intentional design. Democrats especially use “stupid” policies which sound “well-meaning” to create awful situations that benefit themselves and their people greatly while harming the country. They aren’t that stupid. It’s on purpose.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Up about 2%, - annual rate of about 7%.

Below the rate of inflation?

The W5000 is down 7.92% so far this year.
I don't think that the number above counts dividends.
The stock market doesn't like rising interest rates, but I have my fingers crossed.

For the next 10 years I'm hoping for an average of 7-8% return.

I'm going to convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA while it's down a bit.

How to proceed:
Sit back and continue to collect dividends.

I’m probably not going to be a very happy camper for a while.

Oh well, I’ve still got my health 🤬

clambo says

I’m probably not going to be a very happy camper for a while.

I thought you were one of those who bought lots of Apple long before the massive run-up. A little bit of a retreat shouldn't be so bad.

Buy select sector stocks only after lots of DD. Biotech for example. Portfolio is near al time high, doing better than it did during the boring fed ramp decade of 2009-2019. Biotechs stocks are cheap right now with ibb and xbi, russell around 52 wk lows

But housing is insulated from price declines because no NINJA and it's different this time.

Headset, my Apple shares are okay but my mutual funds are down 15% from January.
I sure liked it when AAPL was $182/share.
I bought some BABA on a whim but my Shanghai friend assured me it was a good investment.
I neglected to sell my WFC and that was a bad move.

Because I don’t work anymore, I am more obsessed with my investments than before.

This is a double edged sword; when things are going up, I feel great and even generous, but when things go down I worry about my plans not working out.

It’s all in my head because I’m not busy enough.

DooDahMan says

We have made a ton of progress in terms of profitability, setting a target for $5 billion in Adjusted EBITDA in 2024, but the goalposts have changed. Now it’s about free cash flow. We can (and should) get there fast.

So, you're pining for Uber?

not touching till bloodbath ends.

DooDahMan says

Uber will never ever turn a profit - ever.

Correct. Uber's stated business model is to eventually go to driverless cars. Nice BS to fool investors, but if Uber gets rid of the driver, they get rid of the one who pays for the car, the gas, the insurance and all maintenance. Uber would then hemorrhage even more money.

HeadSet says

DooDahMan says

Uber will never ever turn a profit - ever.

Correct. Uber's stated business model is to eventually go to driverless cars. Nice BS to fool investors, but if Uber gets rid of the driver, they get rid of the one who pays for the car, the gas, the insurance and all maintenance. Uber would then hemorrhage even more money.

I agree with your take. Uber could turn a profit though even with human drivers. It's the leeches of SV. And the investors. I invested and now it's time to get unqualified Billy a job. I know a few business owners with 20+ employees. Their number one mistake is nepotism or allowing nepotism from underlings that you manage and not hiring the best. When you hire the best, you have to hire less. Family and friends are the leeches. I'd never go into business with family or allow them to work for me. Done it once and never again.

Uber seems like a beta frat party. They got the money, but don't have the friends or people to throw a good party, aka make money.

Uber and Lyft are great for consumers! Lower prices, more convenient, and better service than government-monopoly taxi services. Last I looked from my house to SJC airport costs the same in a group white van thing as the Uber or Lyft and 1/2 as much as a taxi. Uber and Lyft are much more reliable, too. Once I got picked up by one of those van services 3 hours before my flight. The 15 minute drive turned into literally 2 hours of driving around picking up others, so I barely made my flight. Never again as long as Uber and Lyft are running.

Uber is so much better than a cab ride.

DooDahMan says

WineHorror1 says

So, you're pining for Uber?

Never used Uber or Lyft - they lost their ass today - bigly. I would never put a dime in stock from these companies. I do not understand or comprehend how companies that lose millions every month stay in business.

Uber will never ever turn a profit - ever. Hopefully when the dust settles from this latest market meltdown - a few of these companies will be something people read about in the future and other will be happy to forget about.

I don’t understand why UBER can’t be profitable. Once you build the software which is like 10 years old now… what expenses are there beyond marketing? Shouldn’t it be a passive income generating machine? Tesla doesn’t need marketing so why does Uber? Hire some engineers to maintain the software and take 30% of each ride? Fire everyone but a small team to keep the software running well. How can that not be profitable. They provide a pretty awesome service if you need it. My twenty year old self would use them every weekend I hit the bars up.

clambo says

Oh well, I’ve still got my health

Then you have everything

Pull out to cash, sheesh. There's no way we're not headed into a recession, even if Republicans win the house (in which case the media while pretend the entire shitty economy began in November 2022).

DooDahMan says

FYI - The 29th installment of the Uber saga was released on 11 February 2022 when it was announced they lost 31 billion even with price increases for service.

What's so ridiculous about this is that Uber COULD make money. All you need to to is make an app for a person to show up to drive a person from A to B - allow the driver to pick the fare, and then pick off a small amount of money to do the service. It's trivial.

Fine - we'll eventually get self driving cars, but we're a ways away from that yet, wait for the technology to become available. Hell, when it becomes available, allow people to rent out their self driving car for a bit while they are at work or sleeping.

Uber is trying to sink the competition, pay its workers as little as possible, and soak up as much money for the executives as possible while they work on pie-in-the sky technology.

DooDahMan says

richwicks says

Uber is trying to sink the competition, pay its workers as little as possible

This was my take years ago when they first got rolling - a new monopoly to replace an old monopoly (taxis)

That’s the thing, the demand for Uber is obvious. It’s a great service that people want. Greed to corner the market, pay executives, and promise angel imvestors the world is why they lose money. The fundamental passive income of taking a percentage of each ride is profitable if you cut out all unnecessary jobs. Long term they wouldn’t survive without investment into self-driving cars but they stopped working on those for a dumb reason. A car killed a transient jaywalker walking on a highway at night. (Probably suicidal). It wasn’t a fault in self driving cars. 99% of people driving would have hit that woman also.