patrick.net

Patrick says

https://www.patrick.net/post/1338778/2021-04-14-inflation-incoming?start=236

Note that original Whitehouse post was just a paragraph or two and has been edited and grown over the year.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/kitten-corner-the-inflation-diet

https://nypost.com/2022/05/23/biden-praises-gas-prices-as-part-of-incredible-transition/

Out of touch as ever, President Biden celebrated record-high gas prices Monday, gushing that the pump pain was part of “an incredible transition” of the US economy away from fossil fuels.

https://nitter.net/AlexEpstein/status/1529098268327616513#m

Alex Epstein
@AlexEpstein
16h
My new book Fossil Future comes out today, and not a moment too soon.

Anti-fossil fuel policies have caused a global energy crisis--which is now causing a global food crisis.

Fossil Future proves definitively that the world needs more fossil fuels.

I wrote Fossil Future because, as the current energy crisis is tragically demonstrating, billions of lives depend on the *enormous and widely-ignored benefits of fossil fuels*.

Fossil Future carefully weighs BOTH the benefits and side-effects of fossil fuels.

When you weigh both the benefits and side-effects of fossil fuels from a human flourishing perspective, you find that most of the world's thought leaders are 180° wrong: global human flourishing doesn't require rapidly eliminating fossil fuel use, it requires expanding it.

https://patriotpost.us/articles/88666

That Other Driver of Inflation: Regulation
Excessive government spending isn’t the only activity that causes costs to skyrocket.

HunterTits says

Patrick says

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/kitten-corner-the-inflation-diet

That was the 'logic' of Weimar Germany too. That's why the Reichsbank kept printing and printing and printing.

Bet you can find the same kind of crap happened in Zimbabwe as well.

Pretty sure Germany did it to inflate away the war reparations debt.

HunterTits says

See's Candies

For years, my Aunt Caroline in LA would send her standard gift of See's Candies every Christmas and I always had dibs on the two pieces of mocha--oblong with little decorettes all over it. Several years ago I went to Dallas to hear the Singapore Slingers play at a venue in North Park Mall. I went early so I could explore it since I hadn't been there in a long time and I made a bee line for the See's Candy Store. I told the employee which one I wanted and she gave me two complimentary pieces! After Aunt Caroline died, I missed those for years!

I think we need to stop considering Democrat leadership to be stupid and start realizing that they are just evil and doing this entirely on purpose for our destruction.

https://m.theepochtimes.com/biden-raising-gas-prices-on-purpose-top-republican-says_4497948.html?utm_source=share-btn-copylink

https://rudy.substack.com/p/a-very-ordinary-life

Those were incredible times. The inflation began slowly around 1921 and climbed for a year or two. By the end of that period ten marks had become the value of one mark. But in 1923 it started to climb like wild fire. A hundred or a thousand marks bought you what you used to get for a mark, then into the millions. Finally it took hundreds of millions and billions of marks to buy a towel or something. There were ordinary postage stamps that were the value of one billion marks. One billion marks to post a letter.

During the inflation the wage rates changed every day, and then, at the height of the inflation, twice a day. At the end of the day you got your day’s pay. You had to spend it right away because the next day your cash would be worth a half or less of what it was the day before. The stores stayed open late just for that. They were trundling truck loads of cash back and forth from the banks to the factories every day. Whatever money anyone had managed to save was completely lost.

At the beginning of the inflation I had saved up a hundred marks towards a sewing machine. When I saw what was happening to the value of the money I decided I'd better buy something quick, but I had waited too long. Because all I got for that hundred marks, which was quite a few months’ saving, was a skimpy blouse — made of paper. Money was literally not worth the paper it was printed on. But that was nothing, many people who had their savings in bank accounts or government bonds lost everything they had managed to scrape together during their entire lives for their retirement.

Once the inflation really started it was a runaway. The banks just took the bills in and printed over them. Ten marks would have a thousand mark printed over it and later it would be printed with 100,000 mark. You could see how things were starting to break down. Some towns began to issue their own scrip tied to local values and exchange. Naturally, that didn’t work either.

Finally, there was a revaluation and each person could turn in so much of the previous money, if they hadn’t spent it for nothing already, and get a small amount of new currency. It was very little, 200 marks or so. And the rest was all lost. I’m not sure how they did manage to stabilize the currency, but once the government decided to take action they did it.

Of course all the little people who had small savings were wiped out. But the big factories and banking houses and multi-millionaires didn’t seem to be affected at all. They went right on piling up their millions. Those big holdings were protected somehow from loss. But the mass of the people were completely broke.

And we asked ourselves, “How can that happen? How is it that the government can’t control an inflation which wipes out the life savings of the mass of the people but the big capitalists can come through the whole thing unscathed?” We who lived through it never got an answer that meant anything. But after that, even those - people who used to save didn’t trust money anymore, or the government. We decided to have a high-ho time whenever we had any spare money, which wasn’t often.

Why didn't people just immediately buy gold or silver when they got money? At least it would hold value more or less.

Patrick says

Why didn't people just immediately buy gold or silver when they got money

Need to eat and pay bills. Not much disposable income
Same in E Europe when inflation was raging in early 90's

Patrick says

all the little people who had small savings were wiped out.

Not the ones who kept their money in coins.

Buy cheap little silver and gold rings and necklaces.

Patrick says

Why didn't people just immediately buy gold or silver when they got money? At least it would hold value more or less.

Some did. Circulating coins were quickly hoarded. German coins were made of silver, iron, aluminum, and copper. Those that traded their paper for coin were able to weather the inflation.

US Coins used to be made of gold, silver, nickel and copper. Modern coins are made from base metal their value mostly fiat. At the current rate of inflation even our current zinc-copper 25 cent parking tokens will be worth more than a quarter dollar.

Gold/silver ratio is hovering around 85 these days. Somethings gotta give...

I am aware of the concept of stealth inflation.

The large container of liquid detergent that cost $6.49 last year is unchanged. But the fine print on the label says it's now 144.5 ounces instead of the 150 ounces it's been for years.

And that sales tax rate (San Jose, CA, - Silicon Valley for you Hipsters) on that item has gone up from 9.125% to 9.375%

Patrick says

Why didn't people just immediately buy gold or silver when they got money? At least it would hold value more or less.

Who would sell it? Why would I sell you a gold mark for 100 paper marks today, when I know my gold mark will be worth 1,000 paper marks next week? I would only by hard objects like a car or stockpiles of food with my gold.

Patrick says

During the inflation the wage rates changed every day, and then, at the height of the inflation, twice a day

And it was the same when you ordered a meal out. You paid for the meal up front because the price would have gone up by the time you finished it.

They seem to have gotten it under control by1927, but I'm sure the trauma was still felt. This is a documentary by a famous German film maker Walter Ruttmann of one day in Berlin in 1927 Weimar Germany. It opens with the train as it approaches the city early in the morning. People straggle out into the street and off to work. At noon people seem to be enjoying themselves, eating and dancing at outdoor cafes. The women are dressed in the latest flapper styles which look for all the world like what they looked like here. After work, the night life begins with revelry in nigh spots where jazz is being played. It's hard to imagine what the lives of these same people are going to be like ten or 15 years later, especially as Berlin faced destruction.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVqPoV9q4ck

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yellen-throws-biden-under-bus-runaway-inflation-she-wanted-19-trillion-stimulus-cut-third

Yellen Throws Biden Under The Bus On Runaway Inflation: She "Wanted" $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Cut By A Third

Perhaps the most idiotic thing to ever come out of the Biden administration - and there has been plenty to choose from - was the repeated lie that (trillions in) stimulus does not cause runaway inflation, but rather lowers it. ...

Only instead of taking one for the team of senile, clueless economists and Putin puppets (because if there is any admin that has done the Kremlin's bidding by sending oil prices to near record highs, it is Biden's) especially after the so-called "president" made it clear he will blame Powell and the Fed ahead of the midterms for his admin's catastrophic MMT policies which have assured an avalanche this November that will hand control of Congress to republicans on a silver platter...

... Yellen has decided to strike back, and as Bloomberg reports citing an advance copy of the Treasury secretary's biography- due out on Sept. 27, just weeks before the midterms - the treasury secretary initially urged Biden administration officials to scale back the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan by a third "worried by the specter of inflation"... the same stimulus plan that she herself said last March would not lead to an inflation problem. But, in retrospect, she appears to have changed her mind. ...

Of course, it's too little too late now, and with even the liberal media turning on Biden, Yellen's last-ditch attempt to preserve some of her reputation in the twilight of her career, and life, will be a miserable failure just like Biden's entire administration...

Patrick says

assured an avalanche this November that will hand control of Congress to republicans

You are assuming a fair vote count. Mail-in voting will allow a repeat of massive after hours vote dumps in strategic places.

Patrick says

Why didn't people just immediately buy gold or silver when they got money? At least it would hold value more or less.

During a crisis, it's impossible to buy gold or silver.

Try to buy some now. Tell us how much do you have to pay over "spot" price?

Buy silver chains and cheap rings. Preferably at the Flea Market from a long time vendor there.

You don't want to be flashing gold coins and expensive bling at the Black Market when TEOTWAKI. The security guards will call their gang pals (probably the same group hired to be guards) and follow you home, and they will have more weapons and be more of them.

Say "Oh, this is my last thing, my grandma gave me this for my Communion, but my kids really need to eat."

AmericanKulak says

TEOTWAKI.

The
End
Of
The
World

but I don't get AKI.

richwicks says

TEOTWAKI

should be AWKI.. as we know it

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

richwicks says

TEOTWAKI

should be AWKI.. as we know it

The End Of The World As We Know It.

Now I have it.

I read Saudi's and OPEC agreed to increase production by 50%. And the rig count as well as other data at Dallas Fed's energy site seem to show that supply will continue to increase. That is why I think oil prices will go down within the next couple of months.

AmericanKulak says

Buy silver chains and cheap rings. Preferably at the Flea Market from a long time vendor there.

You don't want to be flashing gold coins and expensive bling at the Black Market when TEOTWAKI. The security guards will call their gang pals (probably the same group hired to be guards) and follow you home, and they will have more weapons and be more of them.

Say "Oh, this is my last thing, my grandma gave me this for my Communion, but my kids really need to eat."

As far as The End of the World As We Know It, I think what will matter most are potable water, non perishable food and bullets. Those homesteaders in Alaska will fare a lot better than the survivors in the lower 48. If you live near salt water, learn how to make a solar still to make fresh water.

richwicks says

AmericanKulak says

TEOTWAKI.

The
End
Of
The
World

but I don't get AKI.

As We Know It. TEOTWAWKI.

Inflation isn’t the end of the world. It’s just the end of dollar stores, dollar menus at McDonalds, and cheap gas.

For home debtors, it’s a gift.
We will see at least 50% inflation from 2020-2026.
That means your million dollar shack will be worth $1.5 million, but your $800,000 debt will be “worth” $600,000 in inflation adjusted value.
Creditors are going to get shafted hard. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of ASSHOLES!

Shaman says

We will see at least 50% inflation from 2020-2026

If my arithmetic using the exponential is right, 50% price rise in 6 years is 6.7% annualized. Yikes.

Shaman says

Creditors are going to get shafted hard. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of ASSHOLES!

Yes and no.
Massive capital destruction for pension funds and insurance companies. Yes their managers are probably a bunch of assholes, but that won't stop wee little folk like we little folk from getting hurt.

Shaman says

That means your million dollar shack will be worth $1.5 million, but your $800,000 debt will be “worth” $600,000 in inflation adjusted value.

If your pay or income keeps up with the ability to service the shrunken debt. Like, no disruption in employment, no haircut in retirement income, no tax increases.

Can you say, "Stagflation?".

B.A.C.A.H. says

Shaman says

We will see at least 50% inflation from 2020-2026

If my arithmetic using the exponential is right, 50% price rise in 6 years is 6.7% annualized. Yikes.

We are in for massive inflation.

I need to post the national debt priced in commodities over the last 100 years or so. The pattern is clear. $100 will buy you a cup of coffee in 2030.

People who are unaware of Hayek or Mises have no idea what is coming. Austrian economics is NOT a system, it's a science, the science of what happens in any market. Communist, free market, fascist, kleptocracy, anything. Economics is the study of how people interact in groups, it's almost psychology. Keynesianism is a system, a failed one. It was designed to fail. Given power to a centralized authority always results in a calamity because power always corrupts.

DooDahMan says

Inflation will be higher for longer — and you’re not going to like what comes next

Prices for oil, natural gas, food and other goods will stay elevated while economic growth slides, bringing stagflation. Let’s review six factors now shaking the U.S. and global economies that set the stage for stagflation:

1. Oil

2. Natural gas

3. Food

4. Interest rates

5. Supply-chain problems

6. Deglobalization

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-inflation-will-stick-around-longer-and-youre-not-going-to-like-what-comes-after-11653415808?mod=home-page

Two economic indicators do not play well in regard of my knowledge of economy.
This is:
1. Price of Gold. Investor usually run up gold prices to avoid inflation burn. Not this time.
2. Price of 10y. Treasury Bonds. This is typical money parking for big investors. They went up but well below when they should be. Usually, they exceed inflation by about 1.3%
Is then inflation seen as a very short event?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-inflation-data-june-10-2022-212834308.html

Inflation hits 40-year high as CPI rises 8.6% in May

So wall street takes a dump because they think that the federal reserve is maybe possibly going to do the right thing and jack up interest rates more than .5% next week?

I think I've read more than half of the US dollars are outside of the US.

But I think maybe they're referring to physical paper bills, like 100's or whatever. Maybe if we include all the credit and whatnot it's a lot more than half.

So now that we've been asleep at the wheel, distracted by COVID and Gun Nuts and The Kardashians and Same Sex Marriage and Trannies and Abortion RIghts, we allowed the fate of our currency to get outside of our control. It's our own fault. The federal reserve board can peg its overnight loan rate and tweak its Balance Sheet, but most of the dollars are outside its control. I suppose it's like steering a motorboat in front of a 100 meter tall rouge wave. (Or maybe in our case, a McMansion cruise liner packed with obese leisure travelers).

Obligatory: