patrick.net

B.A.C.A.H. says

richwicks says

You don't understand what is going on.

There you go again, I state a FACT and you get inside my mind.

Here;s another factoid from my spread sheet:

half gallon of low-fat (2%) organic milk at Trader Joe
1/21/2018 $3.49 (note: I started tracking my grocery expenses around that time)

2/24/2023 $3.99 (yes, today).

Annualized inflation rate for this product: 2.8%

Change the commodity markets so that if the commodity exchange exists, it is required to be able to deliver on the contract and that people in the commodity exchanges must be able to accept delivery and be able to deliver to the commodity exchange.

That USED to be the law.

Then it was financialized, so there's people who will never be able to produce pork bellies, nor do they have the facilities to accept them involved in the market. These are speculators, and speculation used to be illegal.

There's no market discovery for prices any more. That's what you don't understand.

Barack Gold's stock price didn't move hardly at all when gold went from $300 an ounce to $2,000 an ounce. Investors were "what the fuck?", and sued. Barack's defense was that they were acting as a GOVERNMENT AGENT.

https://www.gata.org/node/1858

Our government is directly involved with price fixing and commodity price manipulation. Both are completely illegal BUT when the government controls who gets prosecuted, and who can even have a case heard..

You can distort markets for a long time, but not forever. When price fixing eventually fails, the first Depression will look like nothing.

B.A.C.A.H. says

richwicks says

You don't understand what is going on.

There you go again, I state a FACT and you get inside my mind.

Here;s another factoid from my spread sheet:

half gallon of low-fat (2%) organic milk at Trader Joe
1/21/2018 $3.49 (note: I started tracking my grocery expenses around that time)

2/24/2023 $3.99 (yes, today).

Annualized inflation rate for this product: 2.8%

Dude. You won't get a comment that agrees with you or is positive from Rich. Just our government is corrupt. Government has been for sure but not totally. Problem is commenting with Rich, it always goes back to bad/negative/lying government. That's simply not the case and I dislike Joe Biden. He cannot say anything positive. Really about anything. It's gotten worse over the last 2 months. Nuance and logic don't exist in his narrative. It's his narrative or you're an idiot.

You and I have had our arguments and even agreements ourselves, but you're trying to paddle up the creek with no paddle with him. EVERY comment of his ends the same in some way shape or form. Our government is corrupt. There's not an actual thought. Closest I've been to putting a non-bot user on ignore. Who knows, maybe a bot, but I believe Patrick has met him.

There's just no content to his comments. "Government corrupt and bad." He should just post that every time. At least have some intellect. I appreciate actual data since you track your spending which is cool. Inflation is bad on things like cars and high cost goods, but you literally prove that it's not that bad, but you're wrong. Again, no nuance. Don't buy a high priced item right now. What happens? Prices go down. Supply chain gets back in order. We're not all gonna die tomorrow. The doom and gloom here lately has been off the charts.

Not you BACAH, but if you don't like it here (USA), just fucking move. It's not complicated. Whining about it and doing nothing ain't gonna fix much. Get elected. Do something.

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Yesterday it was $1.24 a pound for chicken legs (minimum amount is 4 pounds) at Walmart on Front Beach Rd in Panama City Beach

I remember it was $1.03 before the pandemic.

Egg prices seem to have stabilized at least.
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WookieMan says

Dude. You won't get a comment that agrees with you or is positive from Rich. Just our government is corrupt. Government has been for sure but not totally.

@WookieMan - Name all the good things the government has done in the last say, 3 years.

Anything. I want to hear you sing the praises of it.

If you can't find anything in the last 3 years, move it to 7.

If you refuse to recognize a problem, you won't address it, will you?

richwicks says

you don't understand.

In the mid-1990's I got cynical about debt monetization, government inflation statistics, etc. That's when I started archiving what I paid for stuff.

Of course, I remember what we paid for our home in SJ in Q2 of 1989: 192K. According to a real estate website that starts with letter Z, it'd sell for 1.047 M. That comes out to 4.9% annualized "inflation". Not the fed target of 2%, but a whole lot less than stock index fund appreciation.

And the low-end Camry we bought at Capitol Toyota in SJ new, off the lot in Q3 of 2000: with taxes out the door 22.4K. With California sales tax of 9%, probably about 20.55K. On their website this morning they're asking 30,609 for a 2023 model. That comes to about 1.8% annualized inflation for a vehicle that has very low maintenance cost. We had the Camry for 165K miles and 17 years and never had a single repair. Just tires, brakes, etc.

ad says

Yesterday it was $1.24 a pound for chicken legs (minimum amount is 4 pounds) at Walmart on Front Beach Rd in Panama City Beach
I remember it was $1.03 before the pandemic.

Pre-pandemic would be about three years ago. This comes to 5.6% inflation.

The Sky Is Falling Down.

richwicks says

Name all the good things the government has done in the last say, 3 years.

I hate Biden. He's an imbecile. WE HAVE NO BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAIN!!!!

Every American life is worth at least $1M. Maybe our government lies. He hasn't escalated. He's shipping weapons that were created by American workers. I don't fucking like it but please tell me the alternative?? Russia is and will always move west because their climate is shit. This isn't complicated. The current situation is the lesser of two evils. THIS is always the situation.

Russia needs to be bus tossed and so does Ukraine. Keep our kids alive is all I fucking ask. Money is money. Debt is a business contract. There is risk it doesn't get paid back. We have more resources than the rest of the world. Until you realize that you'll just keep attacking American dominance. It ain't perfect. What's the alternative? Until you present one you're kind of off your rocker.

richwicks says

WookieMan - Name all the good things the government has done in the last say, 3 years.

Every accurate National Weather Service forecast, every day. Every ATC directed aviation flight, in every kind of weather, safely to its destination. Thousand of times, every day.

etc etc etc

WookieMan says

richwicks says

Name all the good things the government has done in the last say, 3 years.

I hate Biden. He's an imbecile. WE HAVE NO BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAIN!!!!

Every American life is worth at least $1M. Maybe our government lies. He hasn't escalated. He's shipping weapons that were created by American workers. I don't fucking like it but please tell me the alternative?? Russia is and will always move west because their climate is shit. This isn't complicated. The current situation is the lesser of two evils. THIS is always the situation.

Russia needs to be bus tossed and so does Ukraine. Keep our kids alive is all I fucking ask. Money is money. Debt is a business contract. There is risk it doesn't get paid back. We have more resources than the rest of the world. Until you realize that you'll just keep attacking American dominance. It ain't perfect. What's the alternative? Until you present one you're kind of off your rocker.

These are all the good things that the government has done in the last 3 years in your estimation?

I'm absolutely serious, defend this piece of shit government. You where whining that all I do is shit on it. Well, I'm just shitting on shit.

And you're absolutely wrong - we certainly have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but they are not officially "military". They are "contractors". The US government pulls this crap all the time. The government always lies about conflicts. The only time they make a claim like "we're not doing X" - you can bet your SOUL they are doing X.

B.A.C.A.H. says

richwicks says

WookieMan - Name all the good things the government has done in the last say, 3 years.

Every accurate National Weather Service forecast, every day. Every ATC directed aviation flight, in every kind of weather, safely to its destination. Thousand of times, every day.

etc etc etc

Well, we don't need congress for that, do we? Or the FBI, or the NSA, or the military, or the IRS..

richwicks says

And you're absolutely wrong - we certainly have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but they are not officially "military". They are "contractors".

Yeah like DynCorp (now: Amentum) and Blackwater (now: Constellis Holdings)

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richwicks says

Well, we don't need congress for that, do we? Or the FBI, or the NSA, or the military, or the IRS..

Yes, go back to Constitution and define what is "inherently governmental function" ... the Navy is specifically called out in the Constitution ...

Hence, the Navy should always be active but the rest of DoD should be reserves and "militia" by interpreting the Constitution ...

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richwicks says

Well, we don't need congress for that, do we? Or the FBI, or the NSA, or the military, or the IRS..

Just move dude and stop bitching. Grass ain't greener on the other side of another government.

Erase it all you you are dead. That's not a joke. No clean water. Shitting in an outhouse. No internet. Do you listen to yourself? If someone else is doing it better GO for fucks sake. Stop bitching.

What will happen to the penny?

ad says

richwicks says

And you're absolutely wrong - we certainly have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but they are not officially "military". They are "contractors".

Yeah like DynCorp (now: Amentum) and Blackwater (now: Constellis Holdings)

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Why? What's the point? Ukies seem to be capable enough to fight their own fight. In a clash of two almost 1-mil-strong militaries along almost 1000 miles long line of contact what difference could they make anyway?

Not to mention there is 0 proof but who needs proof, amirite?

RWSGFY says

Why? What's the point? Ukies seem to be capable enough to fight their own fight. In a clash of two almost 1-mil-strong militaries along almost 1000 miles long line of contact what difference could they make anyway?

It's to prolong the war. This is a war of attrition. It's not meant to be won, it's being conducted to harm the "other side", in this case, Russia.

Neocons have no reverse gear. They will fuck up, and continue forward regardless. These stupid fucking assholes will NEVER admit error, they never correct, they ONLY double down, that's why we're in Clown World today - they've been on a losing streak for 20 years, they'll just double down again.

Because they can never address changing situations or admit any fault, EVER, they will continue to send people into the meat grinder forever, until there's nothing left to send into the meat grinder. The Neocons are either the stupidest fucking assholes EVER, or they are literally a 5th column trying to destroy the United States. They are SUPREMELY incompetent. What the fuck was the Afghanistan war for anyhow? Can you tell me? 20 years, what was the mission of the Afghanistan war?

For a Neocon it was just to continue it. There was no mission. They are either fucking stupid, or they are saboteurs of this nation.

Our stupid propaganda media screams about how Russia is "losing" when people get fired for incompetence or fuckups in Russia. Russia eliminates people who screw up and are incompetent, the US does not. They reward incompetence. Victoria Nuland is a stupid fucking cunt that was instrumental in causing this war, if she was fired, 20 years ago, this wouldn't happen, she was instrumental in starting the Iraq War, she was Dick Cheney's advisor. If that was a MISTAKE, she should have been fired. NOBODY no matter how much damage they do this nation EVER gets fired, EVER. We've bombed 7 nations over 20 years, how has this been any advantage to the United States? These assholes do not work on behalf of the United States.

RWSGFY says

Not to mention there is 0 proof but who needs proof, amirite?

The patterns of the United States are very clear. The US always sends in "advisors" to any conflict they are involved with. They ALWAYS do this. It will be contractors, and advisors, and other syllogisms, but it's basically military. The US overthrew Ukraine in 2014, and the US isn't just standing back to let this "run the course". That's naive.

richwicks says

It's to prolong the war. This is a war of attrition. It's not meant to be won, it's being conducted to harm the "other side", in this case, Russia.

russia's debt has not increased much : https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

gasoline prices are still averaging above $3 a gallon

ad says

richwicks says

It's to prolong the war. This is a war of attrition. It's not meant to be won, it's being conducted to harm the "other side", in this case, Russia.

russia's debt has not increased much : https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

gasoline prices are still averaging above $3 a gallon

I don't think for a moment that Russia is going to lose this war of attrition, but it's going to be long war with many many people killed. It will hurt the United States more than it will hurt Russia. This is typical of the Neocons, they're either fucking the stupidest people ever to gain power of this nation, or they are sabotaging it. Everything they do ends up harming this country.

The war is going to destroy Ukraine. Neocons I swear just like killing. I wouldn't have such a problem with the sociopathic assholes if anything they've done in the last 30 years could be considered a success by any measure.

richwicks says

It will hurt the United States more than it will hurt Russia.

I read $50 billion in 2022 and $45 billion in 2023 as far as USA federal government funding Ukraine

The US Navy and Marine Corps budget is about $250 billion in 2023, the Coast Guard is $14 billion in 2023

Not sure how much more the Repubs and Dems want to be funding Ukraine about $50 billion a year

At least the debt to gdp ratio is 120% after peaking around 135% in 2020, and it was 107% in march 2020 and averaged 101% during obama's 2nd term

So "inflating out of an economic crisis" is working in regards to the debt to gdp ratio return to pre pandemic levels

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

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ad says

At least the debt to gdp ratio is 120% after peaking around 135% in 2020, and it was 107% in march 2020 and averaged 101% during obama's 2nd term

So "inflating out of an economic crisis" is working in regards to the debt to gdp ratio return to pre pandemic levels

Why do you believe the statistics from a government that just told you inflation is temporary, that we had a deadly pandemic, and the 'vaccines' for it are safe and effective?

richwicks says

Why do you believe the statistics from a government that just told you inflation is temporary, that we had a deadly pandemic, and the 'vaccines' for it are safe and effective?

so you think the united states government statistics like dept to gpd ratio, inflation (or CPI), and unemployment are lies ?

if they are not completely accurate, can we not use them as far as noticing trends ? or do you think they manipulate the data to show favorable trends ?

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i know wolfman at wolfstreet . com tracks monthly and quarterly inflation, but at least annual inflation continues to trend downward
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cnn's fear and greed index is at 26 out of 100, or very close to extreme fear

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-market-workers-are-getting-two-jobs-amid-inflation-says-industry-watcher-185633402.html

Labor market: Workers are getting two jobs amid inflation, says industry watcher

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-market-workers-are-getting-two-jobs-amid-inflation-says-industry-watcher-185633402.html

Labor market: Workers are getting two jobs amid inflation, says industry watcher

will see how this plays out with CPI dropping to below 5% by this summer ... it is currently 6% and peaked around 9.1% last summer ...

i hope wage increases catch up some with housing costs within the next 2 to 3 years ...

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Ticky Tack Shacks are ridiculously overpriced, exceeding peak 2006 prices.

Lots of near retirees don't want to hear it, but it's true.

Foreigners won't save the market, and foreigners are concentrated where the H1B jobs are, they are not evenly distributed across the USA, but concentrated in tech and "back office" cities like SFBA, Boston, Raleigh, etc. There are a pitiful fraction of potential homebuyers, the vast majority are around 2 person households, DINKs and Single HoMoms.

ad says

i hope wage increases catch up some with housing costs within the next 2 to 3 years ...

I do not. I would rather see house prices fall to be affordable at current wages.

This is the second time I received from Ace Hardware a coupon ($5 off for $25 or more purchase). I also noticed Amazon has a lot of deals going like an additional 5% plus free shipping.

Most of the "luxury" apartments (vinyl planking, quartz counter tops, free internet service, pool, gym, etc.) in Panama City Beach are offering free month of rent for 13 month lease.

Gas is about $2.90 a gallon when it was nearly $4.90 a gallon last year.

I also noticed food prices at Walmart on 23rd street in Panama City have remained flat for at least 4 months like $2.60 for 12 eggs, $1.20 for a pound of chicken legs, $2 for box of Great Value corn flakes, $4.25 for gallon of milk, $1.10 for loaf of Great Value wheat bread, etc. Its about the same price for food at Piggly Wiggly in Panama City.

Also I notice Tucktec is keeping its kayak prices steady. I bought my yellow one for around $320 back in 2021 and I see the new ones are at $350 now.

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Money supply was $4,000 billion at start of COVID pandemic. It is $19,300 billion now.

The Fed selling its assets like Treasuries as part of quantitative tightening is helping some to reduce money supply.

Money supply and interest rates have an inverse relationship. A larger money supply lowers market interest rates, making it less expensive for consumers to borrow. Conversely, smaller money supplies tend to raise market interest rates, making it pricier for consumers to take out a loan.
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I noticed prices dropping at Amazon. I just bought a saltwater and freshwater fly rod set for $70 on Amazon. It includes 8 flies and a fly tackle box as well as a carrying case for the rod set. It was selling for $90 a few months ago.

Then I read this article below about California's Inland Empire expecting major job cuts to Amazon, Walmart, etc. warehouses there.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-us-warehouse-capital-boomed-during-the-pandemic-now-it-s-facing-a-slowdown/ar-AA19s7HZ

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ad says

I noticed prices dropping at Amazon.

I noticed that prices for bike accessories and computer RAM have fallen also. Wonder if the prices will fall for autos soon.

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Job market is cooling some, which will reduce risk of inflation. My immediate inflation concern is about the Saudis cutting oil production now.

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/04/04/job-openings-jolts-data-openings-fell/11597277002/

"The U.S. labor market is definitively cooling off," says Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the hiring lab for Indeed, a top online job board.

Since there were 5.9 million unemployed Americans in February, the 9.9 million vacancies amounted to 1.7 available jobs for each unemployed person, down from a near-record 1.9 openings in January.

Openings declined by a whopping 278,000 in professional and business services; 210,000 in trade, transportation and utilities; 150,000 in health care; and 87,000 in leisure and hospitality.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/flashback-hasnt-janet-yellen-done

I've been bashing the "there's no inflation, inflation is too low, we need more inflation, inflation is transitory, inflation is good for you, it's Putin's inflation, we need to raise the inflation target" animals for 10 years online. Anytime there's a discussion of inflation, the only ones calling for more are inbred economists, people who own lots of [levered] assets, people who make a living off of either of these groups, & kids still living at home. The other 90% will chew your ear off about the high cost of living.