patrick.net

richwicks says

Why do you believe the statistics from a government that just told you inflation is temporary, that we had a deadly pandemic, and the 'vaccines' for it are safe and effective?

so you think the united states government statistics like dept to gpd ratio, inflation (or CPI), and unemployment are lies ?

if they are not completely accurate, can we not use them as far as noticing trends ? or do you think they manipulate the data to show favorable trends ?

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i know wolfman at wolfstreet . com tracks monthly and quarterly inflation, but at least annual inflation continues to trend downward
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cnn's fear and greed index is at 26 out of 100, or very close to extreme fear

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-market-workers-are-getting-two-jobs-amid-inflation-says-industry-watcher-185633402.html

Labor market: Workers are getting two jobs amid inflation, says industry watcher

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-market-workers-are-getting-two-jobs-amid-inflation-says-industry-watcher-185633402.html

Labor market: Workers are getting two jobs amid inflation, says industry watcher

will see how this plays out with CPI dropping to below 5% by this summer ... it is currently 6% and peaked around 9.1% last summer ...

i hope wage increases catch up some with housing costs within the next 2 to 3 years ...

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Ticky Tack Shacks are ridiculously overpriced, exceeding peak 2006 prices.

Lots of near retirees don't want to hear it, but it's true.

Foreigners won't save the market, and foreigners are concentrated where the H1B jobs are, they are not evenly distributed across the USA, but concentrated in tech and "back office" cities like SFBA, Boston, Raleigh, etc. There are a pitiful fraction of potential homebuyers, the vast majority are around 2 person households, DINKs and Single HoMoms.

ad says

i hope wage increases catch up some with housing costs within the next 2 to 3 years ...

I do not. I would rather see house prices fall to be affordable at current wages.

This is the second time I received from Ace Hardware a coupon ($5 off for $25 or more purchase). I also noticed Amazon has a lot of deals going like an additional 5% plus free shipping.

Most of the "luxury" apartments (vinyl planking, quartz counter tops, free internet service, pool, gym, etc.) in Panama City Beach are offering free month of rent for 13 month lease.

Gas is about $2.90 a gallon when it was nearly $4.90 a gallon last year.

I also noticed food prices at Walmart on 23rd street in Panama City have remained flat for at least 4 months like $2.60 for 12 eggs, $1.20 for a pound of chicken legs, $2 for box of Great Value corn flakes, $4.25 for gallon of milk, $1.10 for loaf of Great Value wheat bread, etc. Its about the same price for food at Piggly Wiggly in Panama City.

Also I notice Tucktec is keeping its kayak prices steady. I bought my yellow one for around $320 back in 2021 and I see the new ones are at $350 now.

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Money supply was $4,000 billion at start of COVID pandemic. It is $19,300 billion now.

The Fed selling its assets like Treasuries as part of quantitative tightening is helping some to reduce money supply.

Money supply and interest rates have an inverse relationship. A larger money supply lowers market interest rates, making it less expensive for consumers to borrow. Conversely, smaller money supplies tend to raise market interest rates, making it pricier for consumers to take out a loan.
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I noticed prices dropping at Amazon. I just bought a saltwater and freshwater fly rod set for $70 on Amazon. It includes 8 flies and a fly tackle box as well as a carrying case for the rod set. It was selling for $90 a few months ago.

Then I read this article below about California's Inland Empire expecting major job cuts to Amazon, Walmart, etc. warehouses there.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-us-warehouse-capital-boomed-during-the-pandemic-now-it-s-facing-a-slowdown/ar-AA19s7HZ

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ad says

I noticed prices dropping at Amazon.

I noticed that prices for bike accessories and computer RAM have fallen also. Wonder if the prices will fall for autos soon.

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Job market is cooling some, which will reduce risk of inflation. My immediate inflation concern is about the Saudis cutting oil production now.

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/04/04/job-openings-jolts-data-openings-fell/11597277002/

"The U.S. labor market is definitively cooling off," says Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the hiring lab for Indeed, a top online job board.

Since there were 5.9 million unemployed Americans in February, the 9.9 million vacancies amounted to 1.7 available jobs for each unemployed person, down from a near-record 1.9 openings in January.

Openings declined by a whopping 278,000 in professional and business services; 210,000 in trade, transportation and utilities; 150,000 in health care; and 87,000 in leisure and hospitality.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/flashback-hasnt-janet-yellen-done

I've been bashing the "there's no inflation, inflation is too low, we need more inflation, inflation is transitory, inflation is good for you, it's Putin's inflation, we need to raise the inflation target" animals for 10 years online. Anytime there's a discussion of inflation, the only ones calling for more are inbred economists, people who own lots of [levered] assets, people who make a living off of either of these groups, & kids still living at home. The other 90% will chew your ear off about the high cost of living.

Patrick says

people who own lots of [levered] asset

Yes, if you own real estate then you will see appreciation in value. Rental property owners benefit.

I know someone who bought a townhome (3 bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage, 2 miles to beach) in my HOA for $115,000 in 2011. It sold for $275,000 in 2006. Only put in about $7,000 into renovation just after buying it.

He rents it now for $2100 a month (and could probably get away with $2300 but his tenant has been there since 2011).

He rented it for $1500 in 2016.

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Again, more bad news as this may put help to reduce inflation. We'll see how the job numbers are in tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/small-businesses-file-bankruptcy-record-pace-surpassing-covid-crash

The note from UBS Evidence Lab shows private bankruptcy filings in 2023 have exceeded the highest point recorded during the early stages of the COVID pandemic by a considerable amount. The four-week moving average for private filings in late February was 73 percent higher than in June 2020.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-barry-sternlicht-says-131632072.html

Billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht says inflation is going to ‘drop hard’—just look at rents

Personally, I will believe it when I see it.

cisTits says

How would this help reduce inflation?

More private (or personal) bankruptcies mean people will reduce consumption. It may mean a 30 year old former technology startup owner moving back to live with their parents for a couple of years to recover from this.

This puts less demand on housing since they leave their apartment and move into their parent's home.

They also may refrain from their indulgent consumer lifestyle for a couple of years after having filed bankruptcy. Hence, this results in less demand for the latest Apple product and other consumer goods sold on Apple store or Amazon.

Perhaps they default on their car loan and their repossessed 2 year old car gets put on the used car market. That is an additional car on the market, hence increasing supply of used vehicles.

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Cal - Maine Foods is a major egg producer. Look at its dividend of nearly 9%.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-money-supply-is-doing-something-it-hasn-t-done-in-90-years-and-it-may-signal-a-big-move-for-stocks/ar-AA1axP9c

M2 money supply which includes savings accounts and certificates of deposit has taken a major drop recently.

This could help to decrease demand enough to slow down the rate of inflation.

My cousin works for Dotty's in Las Vegas and she has noticed a major decrease in tips over about the last 6 months. Also she works part time and has noticed that the full time workers are calling in sick less and taking less unpaid time off because they need as many work days as possible.

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Interesting as the big techs tighten their budget belt and do go on hiring spree in order to prevent tech workers from working at their competiton....

This should reduce the rate of inflation as there is less money for them to buy shit on Amazon and buy second homes in Sedona, Arizona, Breckinridge, Colorado, Boise, etc.... anybody saw the recent M2 money supply graph lately ?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-workers-arent-as-rich-as-they-used-to-be-d2292d64

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ad says

anybody saw the recent M2 money supply graph lately ?

Patrick says

And take back more than they gave you.

Trucking industry says we are in a trucking recession. Lesser trucks on the road means the price of diesel (and also gas) should go down.

https://www.businessinsider.com/frieght-recession-trucking-companies-struggle-to-stay-afloat-2023-5

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Also the Baltic Dry Bulk Index is a good indicator for forecast a recession seems to have stalled after bottoming recently to around 550.
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https://rudy.substack.com/p/noted

Patrick says

https://rudy.substack.com/p/noted

That is why people have to downgrade in other areas to afford housing such as eat less quality food, and not go on vacation.

Or they have to lower their housing standards like share their home with a roommate.

All of this is just quality of life or standard of living getting progressively reduced as annual wage growth is +1% less than CPI :-(

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https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/update-framing-lumber-prices-down-57.html

Framing Lumber Prices Down 57% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

https://www.homedepot.com/p/2-in-x-4-in-x-8-ft-Prime-Whitewood-Stud-058449/312528776
Shows $3.35 in my area.

CPI (or 12 month inflation)is 4.9% for April 2023. CPI peaked around 9.1% back in June 2022.

I suspect the CPI for June 2023 will be much lower than 4.9% given how high prices were in June 2022.

What is promising is the Fed Funds rate is at 5.25% and is finally higher than CPI. This is the first time this has happened since 2007.

Recall CPI averaged 1.5% for Obama's 8 years in office, yet the Fed Funds rate was kept for about 7.5 years at 0.25%.

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zzyzzx says

Framing Lumber Prices Down 57% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Lumber is at 2005 price levels. This will help to drive down housing costs.

I wonder also if this price drop in lumber is in part due to a 20% drop in housing construction.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

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ad says

Lumber is at 2005 price levels. This will help to drive down housing costs.

Lower lumber costs will not lower house costs as the cost of labor more than makes up for it. Talk to someone who recently contracted a home improvement.

HeadSet says

Lower lumber costs will not lower house costs as the cost of labor more than makes up for it. Talk to someone who recently contracted a home improvement.

Perhaps labor inflation has peaked and will at worse remain constant.

With a major drop in material for construction, then that should help reduce housing construction costs.

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