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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   95,670 views  938 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

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361   Bd6r   2023 Aug 10, 8:20pm  

Cheap bread 2 yrs ago: 88c/loaf
Now: 2.19

And inflation is 8 pct
362   Misc   2023 Aug 10, 8:47pm  

At least we use the US dollar.

In Egypt (the largest importer of wheat in the world), the inflation rate is 38%. A new record high. There may be a bit of social friction in that nation coming up.
363   AD   2023 Aug 10, 9:12pm  

MUMBAI, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Indian wheat prices surged to a six-month high on Tuesday due to limited supplies and robust demand ahead of the festival season, dealers said.

The increasing prices may prompt New Delhi to eliminate import duties on the cereal to bolster supplies and control prices ahead of key state polls and next year's general election.

Rising wheat prices could contribute to food inflation and potentially complicate the efforts of both the government and the central bank to contain inflation.
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364   The_Deplorable   2023 Aug 10, 10:21pm  

Bd6r says
"Cheap bread 2 yrs ago: 88c/loaf
Now: 2.19"

This says that the inflation on bread alone is 249%. The claim that we have 8% inflation is bunk.
365   Patrick   2023 Aug 10, 10:54pm  

I calculate that as about 58% inflation per year for two years, because:

219 / 88 = 2.48

So the bread costs 2.48x more that it did 2 years ago.

1.58 ^ 2 = 2.5

It takes 58% inflation over two years to make something cost about 2.5 times what it did.
366   Bd6r   2023 Aug 11, 4:25am  

The_Deplorable says

Bd6r says

"Cheap bread 2 yrs ago: 88c/loaf
Now: 2.19"

This says that the inflation on bread alone is 249%. The claim that we have 8% inflation is bunk.

That was the point
Inflation in groceries is probably 50 pct over last 2 years if everything is taken into account
Medical insurance for students is twice more expensive compared to 2020
And they lie about 8 pct inflation
367   HeadSet   2023 Aug 11, 8:05am  

At 8% inflation, it would take 9 years for prices to double (the old "rule of 72"). When Biden took office, store brand bread at Walmart was 60 cents, and so was a gallon of store brand spring water. After one year of Biden being in office, those prices doubled.
369   ForcedTQ   2023 Aug 11, 2:13pm  

Patrick, I would change that meme to say currency instead of money. The debt notes that we trade out of our pockets and accounts are not money at all; they ceased being such when the gold window was shut. They are just currency as the value can be manipulated at whim of the creator with no store of Value at all.
370   AD   2023 Aug 11, 9:35pm  

Need more supply side economics emphasis on housing and energy to lower prices.

By the way, I read an article there is a glut of truckers now as the trucking industry is in a major recession as less goods are being bought as compared to 2020 to 2022. This was no surprise since retail sales were going to destined to drop significantly from 2020 - 2022 levels.
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372   Patrick   2023 Aug 14, 11:08am  





The cost of everything depends on the cost of energy.

Biden shut down Keystone XL on the first day of his illegitimate regime after the mass election fraud of 2020.
374   AD   2023 Aug 19, 4:12pm  

Patrick says

The cost of everything depends on the cost of energy.

Biden shut down Keystone XL on the first day of his illegitimate regime after the mass election fraud of 2020.


look at oil rig count on Y charts... its all by design seeing gas prices increase now ...

I wonder we will see if rig count peak again in November 2024 like we did in November 2022 ...

this time Birdbrain Biden can't tap the strategic reserves since he depleted them leading up to the November 2022 midterm election
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375   AD   2023 Aug 20, 11:54am  

.

Goods consumption is at or below the trend line. I think we may have a recession by end of this year if they force another COVID lockdown.

If yes, then its all rigged or staged to get the economy to crash by end of year, and then Birdbrain Biden proclaims the economy is recovering by August 2024.

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378   AD   2023 Aug 23, 5:02pm  

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Consumers buying less laptop computers and appliances, and buying more airline tickets, hotel stays, and music concert tickets.

That's why there is a trucking recession right now. Retail has dropped off. Best Buy stock is down about 45%.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/23/business/nightcap-consumer-spending-us-econ/index.html

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379   Misc   2023 Aug 23, 5:15pm  

Ye[, purchasing PMI just came out today. It was barely positive coming in at 51.
380   AD   2023 Aug 23, 5:40pm  

Misc says


Ye[, purchasing PMI just came out today. It was barely positive coming in at 51.


Looks like heading into another recession :-/

When does a recession start ? around 45 ?
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381   Misc   2023 Aug 23, 10:08pm  

As of 8/23/23, it is no longer forecasted to be "Inflation beyond the Stars". The yield on the 10 year bond is 4.21% and inflation over the next 10 years according to the bond gurus is gonna be 2.37%. Over the last few years, not only was inflation gonna be super low, but government bond holders were willing to accept a negative real rate of return on their treasury holdings. Now they want a real rate of return of 1.84% annually over those ten years.

Mortgage rates are about 7.5% for 30 year conforming loans. We could have these "HIGH" rates for decades.

This means a permanent decrease in living standards for younger Americans. House prices do not have to fall because interest rates go up. Neither do higher education costs. Recent college grads could have a $100k education loan at 2% now that exact same program is at 5.5%. The yearly interest differential is easy to figure out. Loans for new vehicles (only the highest paid segment of society can afford the payments and maintain the other niceties of living in a 1st world country).

Disillusionment is already rampant among the young. Looks like they will be stamped as being 2nd rate citizens through no fault of their own.
382   AD   2023 Aug 23, 10:38pm  

Misc says


This means a permanent decrease in living standards for younger Americans.


Can still build affordable housing such as 1200 square foot townhomes or rowhouses with 3 bedroom and 2 bath. Just need the local governments to approve and the developers to build. Housing is the biggest factor right now as far as standard of living, followed by health care insurance and access.

Mortgage rates are driven largely by inflation. So if inflation goes down then won't mortgage rates eventually catch up with inflation (which means following CPI and PCE).

I understand the 30 year mortgage rate also tracks the 10 year Treasury: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30yr-treasuries

.

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383   Misc   2023 Aug 23, 11:29pm  

Inflation is forecast to be about 3/8 of a percent above the 2% target the Fed has set. So pretty close to what the Fed wants. Sure if the Fed drops inflation by that much then mortgage rates should decline that much...all else being equal. That still leaves about a 7% mortgage rate and who knows bond holders may want more than the 1.84% real rate of return on their investment. We just came out of a really weird time where Central banks forced bond holders to accept negative rates of return (after inflation for the US), but even a nominal loss for the Eurozone & Japan bonds. Mortgage rates track inflation, but the real rate of return the bondholders want on the 10 year has gone from about negative 2 percent to about a positive 2 percent, and given the low rates the Central Banks crammed down, the current mortgages just seem high.

In the US we have 30 year fixed rate mortgages because our forefathers didn't trust bankers. Here in the US as the rates rise there is generally less debt issued as it becomes more expensive. In the Eurozone with their variable rate mortgages, rate increases immediately suck cashflow from the family budget (with a certain lag).
384   richwicks   2023 Aug 23, 11:36pm  

Misc says

Inflation is forecast to be about 3/8 of a percent above the 2% target the Fed has set. So pretty close to what the Fed wants.


Why do you believe anything they say at this point? They've been lying about inflation for 20 years. They lie about literally everything. You must be aware of this.

They lowball a number, it's bullshit, they backwards revise it at the ministry of truth.

Start saving their predictions, literally, and the date, and then a few years later, see how far they were actually off by looking of the number being reported by Google or them or whatever, later.
385   Misc   2023 Aug 23, 11:55pm  

Until just recently inflation had been below the Fed's target rate since the Great Recession. They were struggling to get inflation up. The problem was they were concentrating on the CPI and ignoring the rampant inflation in real estate and stocks.

Who coulda known that giving away free trillions of dollars could cause the CPI to go nuts??
386   AD   2023 Aug 24, 9:20am  

Misc says


Who coulda known that giving away free trillions of dollars could cause the CPI to go nuts??


Yeah, Wolfman at Wolf Street website was warning about asset inflation and how that would lead to inflation as people feel more rich with their inflated stock gains, and willing to spend more on the latest AirBnB vacation rental, Mac Book, etc.

But everything has to eventually to settle and return to the mean. Historical rules and metrics ultimately are what significantly matter.

Housing has gone up 4% a year since the late 1940's according to Robert Shiller.

The stock market in general goes up about 5% to 7% above inflation each year over the long run.

Housing costs should not be more than 37% of household income.

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387   HeadSet   2023 Aug 24, 12:42pm  

ad says

Housing costs should not be more than 37% of household income.

Yes, but that should be calculated with a 20 year mortgage. All the 30 year mortgage did is cause and keep going house inflation.
388   Bd6r   2023 Aug 24, 12:49pm  

Ammo prices are down 20-40% on ammoseek.com. 22 LR can be found for 4 cents/round, while 6 months ago it was difficult to find anything below 9 cents. Time to stock up!
389   AD   2023 Aug 24, 1:09pm  

Bd6r says

Ammo prices are down 20-40% on ammoseek.com. 22 LR can be found for 4 cents/round, while 6 months ago it was difficult to find anything below 9 cents. Time to stock up!


I remember about 18 months ago when the cheapest cost was around $1 for 9 mm.

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390   The_Deplorable   2023 Aug 24, 1:34pm  

Misc says
"House prices do not have to fall because interest rates go up. Neither do higher education costs."

So... what happened to Supply And Demand?

Did the Globalists abolish Supply And Demand? Or is it because Supply and Demand does not apply to monopolies?
392   AD   2023 Aug 24, 5:49pm  

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And now Dollar Tree is reporting problems with store theft.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/business/dollar-tree-theft-earnings/index.html

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393   richwicks   2023 Aug 25, 1:57am  

ad says


And now Dollar Tree is reporting problems with store theft.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/business/dollar-tree-theft-earnings/index.html


That's goddamned sad. I shop at dollar tree every now and then, and the people there you can see aren't doing well. Imagine being so desperate you're stealing a $4 pizza or $1 plate or drinking glass?

Their dish-soap sucks by the way. It's all water. I just use it to clean off the worst of a plate before I dump it into a dishwasher with a soap wand. I guess it works well enough, but I wouldn't buy it again.
394   Booger   2023 Aug 25, 3:11am  

richwicks says

Their dish-soap sucks by the way.


Their cough drops don't work either.
395   zzyzzx   2023 Aug 25, 4:43am  

Booger says

Their cough drops don't work either.


I don't trust any Dollar store medicines now either.
396   HeadSet   2023 Aug 25, 7:46am  

richwicks says

Imagine being so desperate you're stealing a $4 pizza or $1 plate or drinking glass?

Do not fall for the lefty line that thieves steal to feed their families. That would be believable if foodstuffs were taken. I suspect that Dollar Store thefts are done by the case or truckload by insiders or pros. After all, who would do a grab bag of stuff they could only fence for a few bucks? I also suspect that "seepage" may be used as an excuse by managers of poor performing stores.
397   AD   2023 Aug 25, 10:20am  

HeadSet says

After all, who would do a grab bag of stuff they could only fence for a few bucks?


There is enough desperate people like the homeless who would do this. Also people take a few items because they know they can easily get away with the theft.

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398   AD   2023 Aug 25, 10:36am  

richwicks says

That's goddamned sad. I shop at dollar tree every now and then, and the people there you can see aren't doing well. Imagine being so desperate you're stealing a $4 pizza or $1 plate or drinking glass?


It also might be that much of a societal norms or culture change for thefts like this to be common. People's character is that they are more likely to not hesitate to steal. Some or all of this may be driven by socieoeconomics.

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399   Misc   2023 Aug 25, 2:56pm  

In France, their inflation rate is higher than here in the States. In true Socialist tradition, instead of letting prices decline, they have instead decided to destroy over production.

Yes, great financial minds of the Eurocrat bureaucrats at work.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/france-to-spend-over-215m-to-destroy-surplus-wine-as-demand-continues-to-plummet/ar-AA1fMu1D?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c8b61181810a44139cf75df2ba1eadda&ei=18

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