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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   146,748 views  1,539 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

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385   Misc   2023 Aug 23, 11:55pm  

Until just recently inflation had been below the Fed's target rate since the Great Recession. They were struggling to get inflation up. The problem was they were concentrating on the CPI and ignoring the rampant inflation in real estate and stocks.

Who coulda known that giving away free trillions of dollars could cause the CPI to go nuts??
386   AD   2023 Aug 24, 9:20am  

Misc says


Who coulda known that giving away free trillions of dollars could cause the CPI to go nuts??


Yeah, Wolfman at Wolf Street website was warning about asset inflation and how that would lead to inflation as people feel more rich with their inflated stock gains, and willing to spend more on the latest AirBnB vacation rental, Mac Book, etc.

But everything has to eventually to settle and return to the mean. Historical rules and metrics ultimately are what significantly matter.

Housing has gone up 4% a year since the late 1940's according to Robert Shiller.

The stock market in general goes up about 5% to 7% above inflation each year over the long run.

Housing costs should not be more than 37% of household income.

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387   HeadSet   2023 Aug 24, 12:42pm  

ad says

Housing costs should not be more than 37% of household income.

Yes, but that should be calculated with a 20 year mortgage. All the 30 year mortgage did is cause and keep going house inflation.
388   Bd6r   2023 Aug 24, 12:49pm  

Ammo prices are down 20-40% on ammoseek.com. 22 LR can be found for 4 cents/round, while 6 months ago it was difficult to find anything below 9 cents. Time to stock up!
389   AD   2023 Aug 24, 1:09pm  

Bd6r says

Ammo prices are down 20-40% on ammoseek.com. 22 LR can be found for 4 cents/round, while 6 months ago it was difficult to find anything below 9 cents. Time to stock up!


I remember about 18 months ago when the cheapest cost was around $1 for 9 mm.

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390   The_Deplorable   2023 Aug 24, 1:34pm  

Misc says
"House prices do not have to fall because interest rates go up. Neither do higher education costs."

So... what happened to Supply And Demand?

Did the Globalists abolish Supply And Demand? Or is it because Supply and Demand does not apply to monopolies?
392   AD   2023 Aug 24, 5:49pm  

.

And now Dollar Tree is reporting problems with store theft.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/business/dollar-tree-theft-earnings/index.html

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393   richwicks   2023 Aug 25, 1:57am  

ad says


And now Dollar Tree is reporting problems with store theft.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/business/dollar-tree-theft-earnings/index.html


That's goddamned sad. I shop at dollar tree every now and then, and the people there you can see aren't doing well. Imagine being so desperate you're stealing a $4 pizza or $1 plate or drinking glass?

Their dish-soap sucks by the way. It's all water. I just use it to clean off the worst of a plate before I dump it into a dishwasher with a soap wand. I guess it works well enough, but I wouldn't buy it again.
394   Booger   2023 Aug 25, 3:11am  

richwicks says

Their dish-soap sucks by the way.


Their cough drops don't work either.
395   zzyzzx   2023 Aug 25, 4:43am  

Booger says

Their cough drops don't work either.


I don't trust any Dollar store medicines now either.
396   HeadSet   2023 Aug 25, 7:46am  

richwicks says

Imagine being so desperate you're stealing a $4 pizza or $1 plate or drinking glass?

Do not fall for the lefty line that thieves steal to feed their families. That would be believable if foodstuffs were taken. I suspect that Dollar Store thefts are done by the case or truckload by insiders or pros. After all, who would do a grab bag of stuff they could only fence for a few bucks? I also suspect that "seepage" may be used as an excuse by managers of poor performing stores.
397   AD   2023 Aug 25, 10:20am  

HeadSet says

After all, who would do a grab bag of stuff they could only fence for a few bucks?


There is enough desperate people like the homeless who would do this. Also people take a few items because they know they can easily get away with the theft.

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398   AD   2023 Aug 25, 10:36am  

richwicks says

That's goddamned sad. I shop at dollar tree every now and then, and the people there you can see aren't doing well. Imagine being so desperate you're stealing a $4 pizza or $1 plate or drinking glass?


It also might be that much of a societal norms or culture change for thefts like this to be common. People's character is that they are more likely to not hesitate to steal. Some or all of this may be driven by socieoeconomics.

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399   Misc   2023 Aug 25, 2:56pm  

In France, their inflation rate is higher than here in the States. In true Socialist tradition, instead of letting prices decline, they have instead decided to destroy over production.

Yes, great financial minds of the Eurocrat bureaucrats at work.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/france-to-spend-over-215m-to-destroy-surplus-wine-as-demand-continues-to-plummet/ar-AA1fMu1D?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c8b61181810a44139cf75df2ba1eadda&ei=18
403   AD   2023 Aug 25, 4:05pm  

AmericanKulak says

But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'


Oil companies are not adding new rigs since they claim they do not want to expand given Biden's energy policies. They claim it would be too risky to explore and add more rigs in an environment that is anti-oil and gas.

Florida Power and Light continues to increase electric rates while natural gas remains at a constant price; one major reason is that they keep building more solar power sites. FPL has adopted the Democrats position on renewable energy.

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404   AD   2023 Aug 26, 9:22pm  

.

T-mobile to lay off 5000 from corporate and support offices, but not frontline or retail employees, total employee reduction represents 7% of workforce.

I wonder if we'll start to see more layoffs and an increase in unemployment toward the end of this year, and if CPI and PCE will drop accordingly.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/25/t-mobile-layoffs-cut-workers-jobs-nationwide/70680602007/

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405   Misc   2023 Aug 27, 11:01pm  

Oh sure, they'll lower the price of their cell phone plans.
406   Booger   2023 Aug 28, 7:48am  

ad says


.

T-mobile to lay off 5000 from corporate and support offices, but not frontline or retail employees, total employee reduction represents 7% of workforce.

I wonder if we'll start to see more layoffs and an increase in unemployment toward the end of this year, and if CPI and PCE will drop accordingly.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/25/t-mobile-layoffs-cut-workers-jobs-nationwide/70680602007/

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In April 2020, T-Mobile and Sprint Corporation, merged to create a new T-Mobile, with the goal of giving customers access to faster speeds and better service at lower prices.

Just a year prior, then CEO John Legere touted that the merger would create more new, high quality, high paying jobs from day one.

"That’s not just a promise. That’s not just a commitment. It’s a fact," Legere wrote on T-Mobile's website.

Clearly that was a lie. Anyone thinking that a merger wouldn't result in layoffs is a moron.
407   AD   2023 Aug 28, 11:07am  

Booger says


Clearly that was a lie. Anyone thinking that a merger wouldn't result in layoffs is a moron.


I'm reading more people are tapping into their 401K's. I know of one way to do this, which is called SEPP.

And this news about 401K's somewhat relates to the T-Mobile layoffs of white collar jobs.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdrawals/index.html

Maybe we'll see a drop in restaurant prices, vacation rental prices, etc. and consequently a drop in PCE and CPI, especially for services as white collar people will be more prudent consumers.

..
409   Booger   2023 Aug 29, 10:13am  

ad says

Maybe we'll see a drop in restaurant prices, vacation rental prices,


I am sitting on the beach at the Jersey shore right now. I booked well in advance and got a great rate. I usually have to wait until September to get rates this cheap. Of course if I wait until last week or something it would have cost $80/night more.
411   AD   2023 Aug 29, 1:47pm  

.

Car prices down due to lower demand (because of car loan interest rates rising) and also increased supply of newer automobiles.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/car-market-just-flipped-10-130024504.html

The average price for a new vehicle in July was $44,700, a massive flip of $3,243 compared to the price in January, as reported by Kelley Blue Book. Prices have fallen by 1.7% since the start of the year, marking the first significant decline in car prices since supply shortages began affecting the industry in 2021.

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412   AD   2023 Aug 30, 5:18pm  

1) Weaker than expected jobs growth for August 2023 report: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2023-08-30/adp-employers-add-fewer-jobs-than-expected-as-hospitality-sector-slows

2) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia data seems to show recession has started: https://mishtalk.com/economics/philadelphia-fed-gdpplus-measure-sure-looks-like-recession-started-in-2022-q4/

See the above 2 links. More layoffs such as 7% of T mobile's white collar workforce means less middle to upper class who can go on vacation, buy a new car, etc.

It does not help that the Fed Funds rate is at 22 year high. But this tells me inflation should continue to trend downward.

I predict an unemployment rate of at least 5% by spring 2024, but there may be a lot of manipulation and lying such as reporting an economic recovery by late summer 2024.

Its all about the Dems keeping the White House, and they can't cheat enough to win an election during a recession.

So expect a lot of continued lies about the economy such as inflation and economic growth at least through early November 2024..

The problem is the Dems control everything from the federal bureaucracy that calculate the economic statistics to the mainstream media outlets that report what is spoon fed to them by the Birdbrain Biden admin.

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414   AD   2023 Aug 31, 11:59am  

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PCE rose by 0.2% from June 2023 to July 2023. I am focusing on monthly changes due to the "baseline effect" of comparing inflation to 12 months ago.

As long as annual inflation continues to remain below 4% for the next 6 months, and monthly increases are no more than 0.35% then I think inflation will continue to trend downward.

****************************

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/31/july-pce-inflation-report-today/70723559007/

"An inflation measure that’s watched closely by the Federal Reserve edged higher in July, possibility raising the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year.

Consumer prices increased 3.3% from a year earlier, above the 3% pace in June but below the 40-year high of 7% in June 2022, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Much of the July rise was due to the fact that inflation already had started to slow somewhat by July 2022 and so the gap in prices between that month and July 2023 was larger.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, in line with June’s increase, according to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index."
415   AD   2023 Sep 1, 5:09pm  

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Saudi Arabia to extend production cuts. Go to Ycharts and look at world rig county and oil rig count; they are still way below early 2020 levels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-30/saudi-arabia-expected-to-prolong-oil-cut-again-survey-shows

Wonder what Birdbrain Biden is going to do if this extends into 2024. Or maybe he'll make a deal with them so that oil prices rise again after the November 2024 election.

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416   Patrick   2023 Sep 1, 5:10pm  

In this rare instance, the Saudis may actually help America by impeding Pedo Peter.
417   AD   2023 Sep 2, 1:38am  

The second revision is noticeably less than the original estimate for each month. They need a recession at least 9 months before the November 2024 election.

That gives the Democrats enough time to claim an economic recovery when campaigning in August through October.

They need 3 months of constant news broadcasting about how the economy has improved, just like Clinton's first campaign was all about "its the economy stupid".
.


418   AD   2023 Sep 4, 8:44pm  

AI like ChapGPT expected to replace coders, paralegals, teachers, and graphic artists among the jobs most affected.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-jobs-at-risk-replacement-artificial-intelligence-ai-labor-trends-2023-02

Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?

Or think about how telephone operators had been affected by technology, or even how the US Postal Service has seen a drop in mail due to email, electronic payments, etc.

This means that labor costs will drop some for companies that use AI more, which should mean less inflation.

Look at how a lot of customer service agents are AI and it takes several minutes to work with them to finally chat with a customer service agent who is a real person.

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419   AD   2023 Sep 6, 4:37pm  

Roku to lay off 10% of its workforce as reported by CNBC today. It already laid off about 12% since last November.

Let's track credit card debt delinquencies and the unemployment rate for the next 6 months.
420   richwicks   2023 Sep 6, 4:46pm  

ad says

Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?


No. I've played around with it quite a bit. It's very useful for doing basic things really quickly, but ask it to do something difficult and it will produce a result, that doesn't work.

I think it's going to compliment coders considerably actually.

If I ask it to make a CRC32 routine, it will do it. If I ask it to make a web-socket for use with Apache, it will give a solution, but it won't work.
421   Patrick   2023 Sep 7, 11:35am  

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/sep/6/biden-cancels-all-oil-gas-drilling-leases-alaskan-/


Biden cancels all oil, gas drilling leases in Alaskan Arctic wildlife refuge...

Interior Department Secretary Deb Haaland authorized the cancellations of seven leases held by Alaska’s state-owned economic development agency, the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, in the remote coastal region that sprawls more than 19 million acres bordering Canada to the east and the Beaufort Sea to the north.


Biden's deliberate increases in the cost of oil and gas are the primary driver of inflation.
422   AD   2023 Sep 7, 3:03pm  

Debt GDP ratio steadying around 120%. It was around 105% when Obama left office. It peaked in 2021 around 135%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S

Debt interest has increased so that means greater deficits

https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/federal-budget-deficit-projected-to-double-to-2-trillion-us-debt-government-spending-gdp-interest-rates-social-security-medicare-program-reform
424   AD   2023 Sep 14, 7:40pm  

The same style car would cost about $40,000 and the median wage is around $58,000.

Back in 1968 the median wage was around $8,000 and this car is priced around $3,000.

It just shows how much cars costs in regards to purchasing power of the median wage owner :-(
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