patrick.net

Misc says

People keep voting for this commie shit. They get what they get,

Oh? They do?

Prove it.

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https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/economy/september-jobs-report-final/index.html

Jobs report today... government reported 336k jobs added last month which was about twice as much as forecasted

This is good if this means companies don't have a labor shortage which means paying overtime and then passing overtime costs onto the customers

Labor participation rate is unchanged at 62.8% and unemployment rate remains same at 3.8%.

Zerohedge is stating the jobs report is hiding key details and is very misleading like most of the gains are part time work and due to teachers re-signing contracts to start work again in September.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-todays-jobs-report-885000-full-time-jobs-lost-offset-1127-million-part-time-jobs

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interesting... Citgroup buying physical aluminum and zinc and is stockpiling it in a warehouse in Taiwan .. source of this metal likely is Russia ... so Citigroup may think there is going to be materials price inflation...

Secretary Blinken did not deny there are secret talks between Russia and USA that have been occurring such as in Pakistan...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/citi-s-mega-metals-trade-shows-global-markets-turning-to-glut
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so Citigroup may think there is going to be materials price inflation...

Lumber is down to 2018 price levels: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Steel down to 2013 price levels: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel

Copper down to 2006-2008 price levels: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel

Maybe time to buy during the current glut in anticipation of the metals and lumber increasing in price again if economy heats up in 2025 ???

I don't trust the silver and gold markets but the other commodities may be not as rigged such as copper and steel.

Check out copper-related ETFs like United States Copper Index Fund and iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex TR ETN

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everything cycles ... so now lumber and copper are in a glut ...

the next peak or boom may not be as dramatic as during the pandemic as that was exacerbated with fiscal and monetary policy extremes

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seems like oil demand is staying constant if not decreasing... this is good if this trend continues as far as keeping oil prices in check ...

better fuel economy and electric cars are helping...
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https://news.yahoo.com/decline-in-gasoline-demand-a-noticeable-and-permanent-change-says-analyst-193913035.html

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https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/data-visualization/tracking-oil-demand

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https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/global-crude-oil-demand/
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world's oil demand in million barrels per day
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ad says

everything cycles ... so now lumber and copper are in a glut ...

At some point I have to post the the national debt, the DJIA, the Case/Shiller home index, etc, priced not in dollars, but of various commodities, like gold, silver, sugar, oil, etc.

We're in one hell of a bubble, and nobody knows it. When it pops? I have no idea, but when it does, it's a civilizational reset. Commodities are way too cheap. It's because commodities are so cheap, we create so much pollution.

You know how radios, televisions, phones, etc, were "built to last" in 1950? They really were. They were built to last for decades, but they were obsoleted within 10-20 years, and entirely obsoleted. We're entering a new age, where things can be built to last. I'm working on a 10 year old computer, and it's just FINE, I bet it's more powerful than the machine you're using to read this on now, and also cheaper.

We're ending the age of disposable goods.

Some people might think we're going to go into an age of stagnation, I prefer to think of it as an age of perfection. We're going to start building things to last, to be repaired, and we will continually improve on design.

Think about this. My phone has a 128 GB SD Card in it. I download any podcast that I want to listen to it in MP3 format. I probably put 8-12 hours of that on it per week, and I've been doing this for about 4 years, and I don't delete files from it. When I bought that card it was $30, today, it's $11.

We are at an inflection point, like it or not.

richwicks says

We're ending the age of disposable goods.

Some people might think we're going to go into an age of stagnation, I prefer to think of it as an age of perfection. We're going to start building things to last, to be repaired, and we will continually improve on design.

yeah my man , i see the same thing as far as inflection point and i like it ... i see local groups like repair cafe and fix-it club ... meetup and facebook are great tools to form clubs that promote this..

it is a good thing overall if it is a culture change toward more self reliance and improvement ... and also local groups like repair cafe bring different people together so it does foster some sense of community...

for my home, i even am keeping an early 2018 all-in-one hp desktop computer going by running ubuntu and using chromium browser and google workspace ...

when i was a kid we had a 19 inch color TV in the living room that we bought in the early 1980s and it lasted at least 12 years...

the Amazon Fire TV seems to be good for at least 8 years though so thats not a bad deal for $300 for a 50 inch TV along with free streaming like Pluto TV, FreeVee, Tubi, and Roku...

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richwicks says

were "built to last" in 1950

one thing I noticed is cars last a lot longer... we have a 2004 honda accord that runs very good ... seems like you can keep cars going for at least 25 years and 400,000 miles..

its all about total ownership costs or life cycle cost...

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richwicks says

You know how radios, televisions, phones, etc, were "built to last" in 1950?

??? Very few cars in that era would make 75,000 miles before being junked. Televisions in 1950 cost about $300 when wages averaged $1.50 per hour, so houses with TVs were rare. Even so, a 1950 era TV was filled with short-life vacuum tubes and prone to breakage and obsolescence. Phones did last, since they were all owed by Ma Bell and rented to customers. I have one of those old rotary phones and it surprisingly still worked on a local touch tone Verizon copper line.

HeadSet says

??? Very few cars in that era would make 75,000 miles before being junked.

My family bought a Chrysler K car for a real cheap price (with AM radio and auto transmission) back in 1983. It lasted until 1996 and was driven at least 15,000 miles per year.

They paid off the loan in 5 years, and it did not have much maintenance costs other than a tire change about every 6 years.

The 19 inch color TV by Zenith was made in the USA and was about $250 back in 1983. My mom was making $7 an hour as an assistant office manager and receptionist at a doctor and dentist office back then.

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HeadSet says

??? Very few cars in that era would make 75,000 miles before being junked.

My family bought a Chrysler K car for a real cheap price (with AM radio and auto transmission) back in 1983. It lasted until 1996 and was driven at least 15,000 miles per year.

They paid off the loan in 5 years, and it did not have much maintenance costs other than a tire change about every 6 years.

The 19 inch color TV by Zenith was made in the USA and was about $250 back in 1983. My mom was making $7 an hour as an assistant office manager and receptionist at a doctor and dentist office back then.

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1983 is not 1950. The 1980s cars were around the start time of cars that lasted, but even so, getting nearly 200,000 miles out of that K car was an exception. In 1983 that Zenith was a solid-state TV which should last a decade until the power supply or picture tube wore out.

HeadSet says

richwicks says

You know how radios, televisions, phones, etc, were "built to last" in 1950?

??? Very few cars in that era would make 75,000 miles before being junked. Televisions in 1950 cost about $300 when wages averaged $1.50 per hour, so houses with TVs were rare. Even so, a 1950 era TV was filled with short-life vacuum tubes and prone to breakage and obsolescence. Phones did last, since they were all owed by Ma Bell and rented to customers. I have one of those old rotary phones and it surprisingly still worked on a local touch tone Verizon copper line.

Well, I don't know about cars, but I do know televisions were built to be repaired. Vacuum tubes were the best technology of the time, the transistor was just out of the lab. You used to be able to go down to the hardware store and go to a device, plug in the vacuum tube you had, and check it to see if it was still working. I know about this, but it's before my time, I never saw it, and I saw the VERY TAIL END of vacuum tubes.

But televisions were in WOOD cabinets, so were radios, and record players, and speakers. Not faux wood, real wood. Everybody thought that when you bought that tremendously expensive $300 television, you'd have it for generations, constantly repairing it. It was designed to be repaired. Same with radios, turn tables, a lot of electronics. Every seen a vacuum cleaner from the 1950's? Those were definitely built to last.

We've perfected a lot of things in the last century, and I think we're going to return to "built to last" mentality.

When I was a kid, I used to play with old electric equipment that was obsoleted, but still worked. My grandparents or parents just didn't bother to use them anymore, and didn't care about them, because they had better versions of it.

I am old enough to remember stuff from the 1800's being used. My grandmother had a spindle lawnmower she must have gotten from her parents. That thing was built to last forever, and it basically did. You know, I don't know why spindle lawnmowers aren't more common. People in the city have such tiny lawns anyhow. Why even bother with a motor?

HeadSet says

In 1983 that Zenith was a solid-state TV

Yes the TV's by then were of transistor or semiconductor configuration and were cheap enough also for middle class to buy.

The Chrysler K car was a great value and American built. We took car of that car such as regular oil changes, etc.

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richwicks says

I am old enough to remember stuff from the 1800's being used.

My grandma had a Singer sewing machine from the 1800s that was powered by a foot treadle. Worked for her because she had no electricity. If I could find that machine I bet it still works as long as I can find a needle.

I would like to pointlessly point out where we are today.

I can download a 2 hour film to my Android phone through FTP in about 2 minutes, that is 1080p, through a wireless connection.

Is there really a demand to reduce that time? Is it's even physically possible?

Look at where we are, many things we have are things I didn't dream would be possible in my lifetime as a young adult and I was an engineering student 30 years ago. Copying a video tape or an audio tape? At best, you could do it at 2x the speed of the actual data, now you can do it at 1000x the speed and the duplication is perfect, no degradation.

We have infinite access to information, digital communication across the world is possible, every video game I ever played, I have on a hard disk, plus 20,000 more for preservation. Every television series or film I ever saw or wanted to see, I can TRIVIALLY store. It's a different time than it was 40 years ago.

All this power for preservation of information is available to the public now and all we have left to do is make it easier to share. Centralized control is going to be based on merit, not power. This really is a new age.

HeadSet says

richwicks says

I am old enough to remember stuff from the 1800's being used.

My grandma had a Singer sewing machine from the 1800s that was powered by a foot treadle. Worked for her because she had no electricity. If I could find that machine I bet it still works as long as I can find a needle.

Pretty cool shit isn't it?

I was always somewhat amazed at the early tools. My parents have a Babbage machine calculator. It's clunky, it's slow, but it's an amazing piece of machinery. It's just a crappy calculator by today's standards.

I would bet less than 1 in 100,000 people understand how a computer chip works, and 1 in a million know how to build one, and they only understand how to build a PART of it. You can understand a Babbage machine. Even refining a silicon boule, that takes an expert. All my work is built on top of experts, and I'm just one in the chain.

Being an expert in technology isn't what it's cracked up to be either, your specialty is quickly obsoleted. "Hey, I know exactly how this very specific thing works!".... that's been made obsolete.

I've been an expert in many areas. I used to rewrite routines in assembly for computer chips, to reduce computation time by 50%, because that routine was called so often, so I optimized it. I can't do better than a machine can today. Even if I can reduce the number of instructions, memory fetches to the cache fucks it up, and it's no faster. Technology has tremendously changed in my lifetime, and now I think we're reaching stability, I don't think we can improve it much more.

The idea I could watch a film on my computer, much less my phone - do you realize how unimaginable this was 30 years ago? A toy can do it. It's crazy.

Oh, and by the way, the same device can do actual nuclear fission bomb simulations. We all have it now. We had export restrictions on the PS2 (even though it was not made in the US) because it could be put into a Beowulf configuration to make a super computer. You have that in your pocket now.

Your phone, and I don't care what sort of phone you have, would put a Cray supercomputer to shame. Nearly everybody has this incredible power.

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CPI report today

12 month inflation (or annual inflation) at 3.7%

Inflation increased 0.4% from August to September

12 month core inflation (does not include food and energy) at 4.1%

Next month the health insurance adjustment does not apply so expect annual inflation to increase at least by 0.6% just based on this

I am hoping that prices drop a lot this month to compensate for this adjustment and that the annual inflation rate remains below 4%.

On the bright side, annual inflation peaked about 9.1% last summer, so we are at least trending at a desirable rate now that we are at 3.7% .
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September

12 month core inflation (does not include food and energy) at 4.1%

Nor rent or interest rates (cost of money).

Since Biden took office, cumulative inflation of nearly 20 percent means that the government has effectively vaporized one-fifth of voters’ savings and purchasing power. Unlike a stock market decline, this is lost money and buying power that cannot be recovered in the future.

https://supermacro.substack.com/p/for-joe-its-all-downhill-from-here

PedoIwog says

Since Biden took office, cumulative inflation of nearly 20 percent means that the government has effectively vaporized one-fifth of voters’ savings and purchasing power. Unlike a stock market decline, this is lost money and buying power that cannot be recovered in the future.

I understand and agree. That is why you have to protect your money at least put it in assets like stocks.

I just hope that for at least the next 3 years income increases are greater than inflation so that income catches up with prices like on rent.

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PedoIwog says

this is lost money and buying power that cannot be recovered in the future.

In theory, if we can somehow ever manage to get some deflation that purchasing power can be recovered. There is literally a zero percent chance of that happening.

PedoIwog says

Since Biden took office, cumulative inflation of nearly 20 percent means that the government has effectively vaporized one-fifth of voters’ savings and purchasing power.

Yes. but since debtors outnumber savers, this will have little political impact. Some debtors will notice if the credit card interest rates go up, but other debtors will only notice if the minimum payment increases.

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S&P 500 at 4330

Based on 25% inflation since February 2020, its real return is nearly 0%

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zzyzzx says

In theory, if we can somehow ever manage to get some deflation that purchasing power can be recovered. There is literally a zero percent chance of that happening.

Disinflation (i.e., reduction in the inflation rate) is only possible. I hope income (includes Social Security and VA disability recipients) at least increases at a rate of 1% greater than inflation each year for the next 7 years.

The last time I'm aware of deflation was around 2009 and the Great Depression.

One of my favorite inflation stocks is Cal-Maine Foods Inc .... I monitor it versus the average cost of a dozen eggs ...

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ad says

I am hoping that prices drop a lot this month to compensate for this adjustment and that the annual inflation rate remains below 4%.

What matters to me is my personal inflation rate. On a massive spread sheet, I track the prices of nearly everything I spend on, except discretionary sh*t like eating out, live sports, travel. Including income and property taxes.

My household's personal annual inflation rate this month is 5.64%

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assume 4% annual inflation since 1970, so $2395 in 1970 is $19,146 in 2023 dollars
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seemed like prices were reasonable compared to minimum wage back then ... the 19 cents hot dog in 1977 would be $1.15 in 2023 dollars based on annual inflation rate of 4% ... $2.30 an hour was minimum wage in 1977
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seemed like prices were reasonable compared to minimum wage back then ... the 19 cents hot dog in 1977 would be $1.15 in 2023 dollars based on annual inflation rate of 4% ... $2.30 an hour was minimum wage in 1977
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Only thing that comes close to that now a days is the Costco Dog and Fountain drink for $1.50

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/terrifying-haunted-house-just-displays-current-gas-and-grocery-prices-along-dark-creepy-hallways

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https://nypost.com/2023/09/04/credit-card-and-car-loan-defaults-hit-10-year-high-as-inflation-squeezes-families/

credit card and car loan defaults at 10 year high :-(

all symptoms of a recession

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Selective inflation in ammo: 22LR real cheap (less than 5 c per round), but 7.62x39 expensive, almost 50 c per round occasionally. I wonder why…

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22LR is good to shot off to scare anyone away that is somewhat easy to scare off

then use 9 mm and 5.56 NATO for the more hardened or psychotic intruders like Hamas terrorists ... only 20 cents a round approximately for 9 mm. I remember it was $1 a round....

note that Wall St Journal reported someone fired a 9 mm round at the thighs of a Hamas terrorist in a kibbutz raid and the terrorists fled after getting fired on ...

https://ammoseek.com/ammo/5.56x45mm-nato

https://ammoseek.com/ammo/9mm-luger?co=new

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"In response to the US Treasury Department figures released Friday, Kogan said that "roughly 75%" of the surge in the deficit and the debt ratio, the amount of federal debt relative to the overall size of the economy, was due to revenue decreases resulting from GOP-approved tax cuts over recent decades. "Of the remaining 25%," he said, "more than half" was higher interest payments on the debt related to Federal Reserve policy."

"We have a revenue problem, due to tax cuts," said Kogan, pointing to the major tax laws enacted under the administrations of George W. Bush and Donald Trump. "The Bush and Trump tax cuts broke our modern tax structure. Revenue is significantly lower and no longer grows much with the economy."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-bush-tax-cuts-fuel-growing-deficits

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"In response to the US Treasury Department figures released Friday, Kogan said that "roughly 75%" of the surge in the deficit and the debt ratio, the amount of federal debt relative to the overall size of the economy, was due to revenue decreases resulting from GOP-approved tax cuts over recent decades. "Of the remaining 25%," he said, "more than half" was higher interest payments on the debt related to Federal Reserve policy."

They go through a lot of trouble to avoid simply charting actual REVENUES after the tax cuts. The deficit is because spending exceeded the revenue gain.

HeadSet says

ad says

"In response to the US Treasury Department figures released Friday, Kogan said that "roughly 75%" of the surge in the deficit and the debt ratio, the amount of federal debt relative to the overall size of the economy, was due to revenue decreases resulting from GOP-approved tax cuts over recent decades. "Of the remaining 25%," he said, "more than half" was higher interest payments on the debt related to Federal Reserve policy."

They go through a lot of trouble to avoid simply charting actual REVENUES after the tax cuts. The deficit is because spending exceeded the revenue gain.

There has been a lot of new spending besides for the Pentagon. Look at how Medicare prescription program and the 9/11 GI Bill were among the new spending programs over the last 20 years. They need to slowly reduce the rate of spending increases such as 0.5% below the inflation rate for each year of the next 5 year period to see if this helps to reduce annual deficits and debt.

"From 2010 through 2016, the Veterans Benefits Administration spent $65 billion on educational benefits for 1.6 million veterans, spouses and children, mostly for veterans' tuition, fees, and housing. In 2016, VBA spent an average of $17,400 per beneficiary."

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And the Congressional Democrats proposed a 2024 budget that increases spending by 5.1% from 2023.

I hope they are just putting that out there with an intent of willing to negotiate an increase at no more than 3.25% (and no more than the annual inflation rate).