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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   148,383 views  1,541 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

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753   Misc   2024 Feb 24, 8:32pm  

I mentioned that the minimum wage increases for 25 States haven't worked their way through the economic system yet. This along the COLAs for social security and government employees and government retirees have boosted the Wall Street forecasts for the PCE indicator to the highest reading in about a year. These will continue to trickle through via higher rents especially. There are further State mandated pay hikes coming later this year as well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-favored-inflation-gauge-seen-210000759.html
754   AD   2024 Feb 24, 9:13pm  

Misc says


I mentioned that the minimum wage increases for 25 States haven't worked their way through the economic system yet. This along the COLAs for social security and government employees and government retirees have boosted the Wall Street forecasts for the PCE indicator to the highest reading in about a year. These will continue to trickle through via higher rents especially. There are further State mandated pay hikes coming later this year as well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-favored-inflation-gauge-seen-210000759.html


Good point, as Florida tip workers minimum wage recently received a $1 raise for 2024 to $8.98, and $12 for non-tip worker minimum wage. Most place on Panama City Beach have tip jars in front like casual barbecue restaurants where you order upfront. They start pay at $14 an hour for those who work the front and are a lot of high school students. The cooks get $18 an hour and share the tips.

California now has a $16 minimum wage as of 1 January 2024. How do the service workers in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles fare ? I mentioned how service workers in the Florida panhandle fare such as renting a 3 bedroom townhome within 2 miles of the beach.

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755   AD   2024 Feb 24, 10:17pm  

.

I'm seeing more deals like this. I am not sure if this is mostly local or Florida only as far as Walmart rollbacks.

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769   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 26, 2:55pm  

Great work, @zzyzzx
770   HeadSet   2024 Feb 26, 3:08pm  

All the pics of inflation above are at foreign stores. Looks like Britain.
771   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 26, 3:13pm  

Canada. But it certainly is happening in the US. Half Gallon ice cream is long gone, Mac N' Cheese is 10-15% less in package size than a few years ago, etc.
772   HeadSet   2024 Feb 26, 5:39pm  

AmericanKulak says

Canada. But it certainly is happening in the US. Half Gallon ice cream is long gone, Mac N' Cheese is 10-15% less in package size than a few years ago, etc.

It seems like decreased portions would affect the obesity epidemic.
773   zzyzzx   2024 Feb 27, 4:47am  

HeadSet says

All the pics of inflation above are at foreign stores. Looks like Britain.

Clearly some of them are, but clearly not all.
774   Misc   2024 Feb 27, 1:00pm  

If prices are too high...well just give the peasants more "Free" money to buy the crap with. That will solve everything.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/americans-to-get-5-000-to-shop-under-new-bill/vi-BB1iZ0HA?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=164f7400db6f4074ae130d350677c684&ei=18
776   AD   2024 Feb 27, 7:12pm  

.

From the Employ Bay County - Florida page on Facebook. $14 an hour to start at Wendys in Panama City 23rd Street (near the Walmart). Likely is negotiable to $15 an hour.

Florida minimum wage is $12 an hour and goes up to $13 and hour next September, to $14 in Sept 2025 and $15 in Sept 2026.
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777   AD   2024 Feb 28, 9:37pm  

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

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778   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Feb 29, 7:54am  

AD says

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

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It may be rigged to.be lower than it is.
780   AD   2024 Feb 29, 10:53am  

UkraineIsFucked says


AD says

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

.

It may be rigged to.be lower than it is.


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Yes, as the Biden Administration reported annual PCE for January 2024 is 2.4%. That is 4 months of PCE being no more than 3%.

So the Biden Admin is going to state the economy had a soft landing with inflation dropping below 3% and unemployment remaining below 5%.

And Democrats will pressure the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate from currently 5.5% to at least 4.75% before the Democrat Party convention.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/pce-inflation-january-2023-.html

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786   Misc   2024 Feb 29, 9:18pm  

The chart is misleading because it is not based per capita, but instead for the nation as a whole. There was a sizable population increase over the year with a lot of illegals that distort the figures as they are presented.
788   AD   2024 Mar 1, 5:06pm  

Eman says





https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1763541375612604707?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q


Eman, yes as it has returned about 11% without including dividend reinvested. Its about par for what I was told back in early 2000's that the S&P 500 historically would return about 12% a year.

Yes, about 16 years ago the stock market bottomed as part of the Great Financial Crisis or Great Recession.

I would chose 01 January 2000 as the starting point.

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.02% for the S&P 500 from 01 January to 31 December 2023

source: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

The last 24 years has been the lost decades :-/

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790   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:07am  

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yeah Booger , its not looking too good. And debt service is no longer less than 8% of total federal spending.

Bill Clinton inherited a federal budget that has a large debt service ... recall the Social Security Trust Fund was flush with cash as income greatly exceeded expense (i.e.,net income in the deep, deep green) during the Clinton admin ...

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791   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:11am  

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$399 in debt payment for federal budget year 2022

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792   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 11:15am  

Those figures are so $2 trillion and 2% lower interest rates ago.

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