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Inflation Beyond the Stars Thread for April 12


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2022 Apr 12, 12:49am   148,228 views  1,541 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

Since we know the numbers are going to suck since Peppermint Patty is leading the Amen Corner Media to blame Putin for it:
https://patrick.net/post/1344548/2022-04-11-putin-s-price-hike-failing-administrati

Frankly, I prefer my spaceship to have big tits and not fake inflated ones.

EDIT - numbers drop:
America goes back to the 80s: Surging gas prices and higher rents push inflation to 41-year high of 8.5% as White House blames it on Putin invading Ukraine
The consumer price index rose 8.5% in March from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981
Housing costs, which make up about a third of the index, have escalated and show no signs of cooling
Gasoline prices soared 49% in March from a year ago as the war in Ukraine rocked energy markets
Biden's administration tried to get ahead of the dire inflation news by blaming Russian leader Vladimir Putin
But Republicans place the blame for soaring prices on 'Democrats' reckless spending and failed policies'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10711311/Inflation-soars-new-41-year-high-8-5.html?source=patrick.net

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777   AD   2024 Feb 28, 9:37pm  

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

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778   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Feb 29, 7:54am  

AD says

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

.


It may be rigged to.be lower than it is.
780   AD   2024 Feb 29, 10:53am  

UkraineIsFucked says


AD says

PCE is reported tomorrow.

What is your forecast for January 2024 ? Will annual PCE increase but at least continue to remain below 3% ?

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

Powell said on 60 Minutes recently that he would consider lowering the Fed Funds rate if inflation was to remain below 3%.

I suspect the Fed would set the Fed Funds rate to 4.5% (currently 5.5%) if annual inflation steadies and remains below 3%. I recall that the Federal Reserve usually wants the Fed Funds rate about 1.5% higher than the annual inflation rate.

.

It may be rigged to.be lower than it is.


.
Yes, as the Biden Administration reported annual PCE for January 2024 is 2.4%. That is 4 months of PCE being no more than 3%.

So the Biden Admin is going to state the economy had a soft landing with inflation dropping below 3% and unemployment remaining below 5%.

And Democrats will pressure the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate from currently 5.5% to at least 4.75% before the Democrat Party convention.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/pce-inflation-january-2023-.html

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786   Misc   2024 Feb 29, 9:18pm  

The chart is misleading because it is not based per capita, but instead for the nation as a whole. There was a sizable population increase over the year with a lot of illegals that distort the figures as they are presented.
788   AD   2024 Mar 1, 5:06pm  

Eman says





https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1763541375612604707?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q


Eman, yes as it has returned about 11% without including dividend reinvested. Its about par for what I was told back in early 2000's that the S&P 500 historically would return about 12% a year.

Yes, about 16 years ago the stock market bottomed as part of the Great Financial Crisis or Great Recession.

I would chose 01 January 2000 as the starting point.

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.02% for the S&P 500 from 01 January to 31 December 2023

source: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

The last 24 years has been the lost decades :-/

.
790   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:07am  

.

yeah Booger , its not looking too good. And debt service is no longer less than 8% of total federal spending.

Bill Clinton inherited a federal budget that has a large debt service ... recall the Social Security Trust Fund was flush with cash as income greatly exceeded expense (i.e.,net income in the deep, deep green) during the Clinton admin ...

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791   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:11am  

.

$399 in debt payment for federal budget year 2022

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792   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 11:15am  

Those figures are so $2 trillion and 2% lower interest rates ago.
793   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:28am  

Misc says

Those figures are so $2 trillion and 2% lower interest rates ago.


True that Mister Misc, those figures ($399 billion for debt service or "net interest") are for Fiscal Year 2022.

$870 billion is the projected "net interest" for Fiscal Year 2024 according to the answer I received from Alexa, which references Congressional Budget Office data :-/

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794   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:33am  

.

Birdbrain Biden and Senator Pocahontas has to put Jerome Powell in a virtual headlock to get him and the Fed to agree to lower the Fed Funds rate to below 4%. Its currently at 23 year high of 5.5%.

And get the Fed to reduce the rate of Quantitative Tightening if not stop it completely :-/

That would help reduce debt service as a percentage of total federal spending.

I have family that is paying the prime rate (about 8.25%) for a home equity loan line of credit. They were doing a lot better when the prime rate was around 5%.

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795   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:55am  

.

It was like the Great Financial Crisis or Great Recession was an inflection point for the Federal Reserve as far as Quantitative Easing, and not just Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).

Sounds like from now on, the Federal Reserve could intervene to reduce the severity of an economic crisis while the federal government spends a lot of taxpayer money on economic stimulus.

If Obama and the Democrats were able to spend as much as they wanted, I wonder what inflation and the national debt would be even with ZIRP and QE.

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796   Eman   2024 Mar 3, 11:56am  

Actually, the person, who is doing the dirty work, is Janet Yellen. Yellen has been putting pressure, or shall I say nudging, Powell behind the scene lower rate as soon as practical. For every month rate stays high, it costs the US a boatload of money. Powell is getting caught between a rock and a hard place.
797   AD   2024 Mar 3, 11:59am  

.

Makes sense as a large amount of debt taken on by the federal government such as for economic stimulus during the next Great Recession will be financed at very low rates, as the Federal Reserve will return to a Zero Interest Rate Policy.

Hopefully guvmint-reported annual inflation will be less than 3% when the dust clears :-/

.



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798   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 12:10pm  

Again, that's outta date. I will peg the average debt of US government issued securities at 3.25%.
800   AD   2024 Mar 3, 12:48pm  

Misc says


Again, that's outta date. I will peg the average debt of US government issued securities at 3.25%.


Of course it is as the federal guvmint wants to delay very bad news. So they show only 2022 data.

Just like the NY Times reported 6 million arrests or interventions at the border (for illegal border crossers) from Feb 2021 to Sept 2023, and said only 1.7 million were granted asylum and allowed to remain in the USA. Do you all trust their numbers especially the 1.7 million figure ?



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801   AD   2024 Mar 3, 12:52pm  

why does the federal guvmint want to delay very bad news ? so to not wake up or alert the frog while it is in the boiling water

the same goes not only with actual (not reported) inflation numbers but also with illegal immigration

notice the Democrats like Birdbrain Biden and Senator Pocahontas keep saying there is only 11 illegal (or undocumented) immigrants in teh USA ? That figure of 11 million has been recycle and reused since the early years of George Bush Jr.

When the Democrats finally get amnesty approved they'll say they honestly underestimated the number of illegal immigrants, and will state "it is not what this country is about" if we do not approve citizenship for over 22 million illegal immigrants
802   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 1:41pm  

It probably is Only 11 million illegals. They just don't include those who have applied for asylum because that makes them legal migrants. Just because the court date to deem eligibility is 10 Fucking years out, don't mean nothing.
803   AD   2024 Mar 3, 3:36pm  

Misc says

It probably is Only 11 million illegals. They just don't include those who have applied for asylum because that makes them legal migrants. Just because the court date to deem eligibility is 10 Fucking years out, don't mean nothing.


Tru dat Senor Misc, its Democrat accounting shenanigans

so total immigrant count of illegals and those waiting asylum are well over 20 million

so how many immigrants total do the Democrats want to grant citizenship ? that is the question as far as them giving a number of people

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804   HeadSet   2024 Mar 3, 5:25pm  

AD says

I have family that is paying the prime rate (about 8.25%) for a home equity loan line of credit.

Maybe the high rate will make them think twice about wasting what many consider "free" money. Maybe also think twice about overpaying for a car and raising prices for the rest of us.
805   AD   2024 Mar 3, 6:26pm  

Eman, I got this coupon in mail yesterday for Burger King (BK or "BK Lounge"). The $17.49 is for 3 Big Macs, 3 cheese burgers, and 3 medium fries.

That $8.49 for the BK meal is about $30 in today's dollars assuming 3.5% annual inflation rate for fast food for last 37 years.

Eman and other Californians, do you all get BK Lounge or similar fast food coupons like this as we do in the Florida panhandle ?

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806   Eman   2024 Mar 3, 7:01pm  

Yes, we get these coupons regularly. I’m not a burger, or fast food, kind of guy. I’m a dine in guy. We have fantastic chefs in the house so the bar is set very high whenever we eat out. We have family gathering every weekend so we always have great food on weekends. My mom was a chef before retiring. One of my BIL owned a restaurant for over a decade before he sold it and retired. I eat extremely well almost everyday.

With that said, I still dine out about 9 times each week on average. I know all the hole in the wall places with great food. To say food in the Bay Area and SoCal not good is laughable…, but whatever. All I can say is that I’m still counting my blessings every single day.
808   AD   2024 Mar 3, 10:59pm  

Eman says

Inflation, or a bubble?


Not sure as the halving of Bitcoin is suppose to make it more valuable.

But I see whereas Bitcoin is some abstract asset which put it at risk for speculation even more now there are ETFs for Bitcoin.

I read the reason why silver is not going up is fraud as the "paper silver" is a lot more than the actual supply of silver (included in the ground).

I read they said silver should be at least $500 an ounce based on its actual supply.

But the powers to be don't want silver to be that expensive since it is a common industrial commodity that goes into Tomahawk cruise missiles to other systems.

That is why some say the silver market is manipulated or rigged.

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809   Misc   2024 Mar 3, 11:13pm  

Markets...manipulated ???? - You say it like it's a bad thing.
810   HeadSet   2024 Mar 4, 7:25am  

AD says

But the powers to be don't want silver to be that expensive since it is a common industrial commodity that goes into Tomahawk cruise missiles to other systems.

Maybe, but industrial demand for silver declined when film photography was replaced by digital.
811   Eman   2024 Mar 4, 11:13pm  

Most of the stats are fact unfortunately. That’s why I feel very uneasy about the current state of the economy.



https://x.com/wallstreetsilv/status/1764698207718691252?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

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