patrick.net

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Annual inflation reported today as 2.5%, down from 2.6% from last month

Annual inflation has remained below 3% for the last 12 months , so technically the 10 Year Treasury should remain below 4.5% and the 30 Yr mortgage rate should remain below 6%

Right now the Fed Funds rate is around 4.5% so the Fed should lower it to 4% as that gives them plenty of safe margin

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

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Got a size reference:

Because food is so expensive now:

Donnie in August 2024:

‘When I win, I will immediately bring prices down on Day One.’

Now:

Egg prices, up 53%, have reached record highs, with prices as high as $10 per dozen in some parts of the country. In New York, bodegas are selling single eggs.

On Sunday on Truth Social, Trump shared a column by MAGA mouthpiece Charlie Kirk, demanding that Americans “Shut Up About Egg Prices.”

So the plan is to tell everybody to STFU? That solves it!

RWSGFY says

So the plan is to tell everybody to STFU?

No, just be patient as prices for eggs will fall as chicken breeding replenishes the kill off. I guess the detractors better squawk now while they have the chance.

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Bloomberg is trying a major scare tactic as far as convincing people that food prices will significant go up, which affects most the working class and poor

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/ar-AA1AFX1d

I go to Aldi (which is about 5 to 10% cheaper than Walmart) and I can't see how prices go up (unless gas prices go up) as the products are American made.

I don't buy food products from Mexico or Canada at these stores.

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HeadSet says

RWSGFY says
So the plan is to tell everybody to STFU?

No, just be patient as prices for eggs will fall as chicken breeding replenishes the kill off. I guess the detractors better squawk now while they have the chance.

I was thinking about eventually buying 100 shares of Cal-Maine Foods Inc, by selling a secure put for $60 strike 15 August 2025.

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Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

Patrick says

Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

Patrick says

Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

10 Yr Treasury fell about 4 basis points today to 4.28%. Its last high was 5% back in 2023.

The 10 Yr Treasury appears to be following the trend of being about 1.5% above the annual inflation rate.

Schwab still offering favorable CD rates such as 4.4% or 3 month, and 4.5% or 2 year duration.

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https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/hot-diggety-dog-thursday-march-13

In other words, lifting these EPA regulations will not only lower costs for nearly everything, it will also unleash dormant business activities halted as it became increasingly expensive to do whatever that thing was and also comply with Biden’s climate rules. Zeldin, quoting Trump, called those regulations the ‘Green New Scam.’ ...

Some products are benefiting from more direct assistance from the other agencies. Egg prices, for example, are returning to levels affordable by ordinary people who aren’t Saudi oil billionaires. That magnificent result occurred because Trump’s CDC has stopped making chicken farmers cull flocks in the name of stopping bird flu. CDC also kiboshed the new bird-flu chicken vaccines, which would have been one more damned thing farmers would have been forced to pay for.

But perhaps the greatest anti-inflationary effect comes from falling gas prices. Gas prices are baked into the cost of everything, since everything must be driven to a store or delivered to your house. Thus, lower gas prices means lower costs for suppliers, which translates to lower retail prices.

Trump began working on increasing oil production on January 20th and hasn’t looked back. ...

The answer to why inflation rates are stabilizing is that it’s a whole of government effort. Egg prices are down due to targeted common sense by CDC, and the EPA’s rule-cutting counts as a broader line of attack. Gas prices are chipping away at the cost of everything through lower transportation costs. Thus, inflation rates are already coming down.

https://x.com/MattBraynard/status/1899849095277121724



Huh, I'd be impressed if that were actually Trump's reasoning, but maybe.

I know economists are uniformly terrified of deflation, but maybe that's just because they all ultimately work for the rich.

Today's Fed cut put gold in spitting distance of $3,000. Cuts to zero would easily cause a spike to $4K.

Bring it on.

Patrick says

The answer to why inflation rates are stabilizing is that it’s a whole of government effort. Egg prices are down due to targeted common sense by CDC, and the EPA’s rule-cutting counts as a broader line of attack. Gas prices are chipping away at the cost of everything through lower transportation costs. Thus, inflation rates are already coming down.

I see Trump trying to show how he can "right the ship" in his first year which includes keeping the fiscal year 2025 deficit at or below Biden's fiscal year 2024 deficit.

I suspect oil and gas companies will not cut production because they are more confident with the new White House administration.

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It will be interesting to see how apartment industry fares over the next year as the first sign of economic slowdown is with subprime auto loan defaults and credit card debt.

….....

https://www.propublica.org/article/justice-department-sues-landlords-alleged-price-fixing-realpage-rent

January 2025
Justice Department Sues Six of the Nation’s Largest Landlords in Effort to Stop Alleged Price-Fixing in Rental Markets
Federal prosecutors allege that the landlords have used RealPage pricing software to collude and artificially raise rents. The legal action is the latest development stemming from a 2022 ProPublica investigation.

............

Not even 90 days into Trumps 2nd term, and gas in the PRNY is $2.87, the lowest it's been since Trump's first term. Go figure.

Then again, gold is over $3K - I guess they're not making any more of it?

stereotomy says

Just remember boys and girls - the price of gold is a leading indicator of inflation.

Last weekend while gardening I listened to an archived radio broadcast drama show from 1978. At the end of the program an hourly "CBS news" was played before the audio file ended.

The main news topic was an updated casualty count from the Jonestown Massacre.

There was a mention of an inflation report. It was reported that at $600 per month, San Francisco was the city with the highest rent in the US.

Hmmm.... this got me thinking. I used the AI on my browser to get prices of other stuff for now and "average 1978 prices". I think compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a better figure of merit for this kind of stuff than simply dividing the old price into new price.

Median San Francisco rent 1978 vs current: $600 vs $3250. CAGR 3.6%. Put that into your pipes and smoke it, landlords.
Average in US Gallon of gasoline 1978 vs current average in US $0.65 vs $3.07. CAGR 3.3% Climate Change Is A Hoax.
Median house price San Francisco 1978 vs current: $245,670 vs $ $1,100,00. CAGR 3.19% Party On, childless SF Hipsters.
Median household income (median in US) 1978 vs current. $15,060 vs $78,538. CAGR 3.51%
Ounce of gold average 1978 price vs current: $193.23 vs $3014. CAGR $5.84%
SP500 index average 1978 price vs current: $96.11 vs $5650. CAGR 8.71%

Extras to add-on:

SanFran rent: Gotta add-in that extra 3.19% appreciation per year. Also, you have one paid off unit and that's already at 50% of the income of median household. - Not too bad.

S&P500: Gotta add-in that extra about 2.2% average yearly dividend.

Household income: Don't forget to factor in the incremental increase in the number of job holders per household. - Shows how this has sucked bigly.

The outperformance of the S&P 500 is directly related to the change in the US tax code. You see back in 1978 the corporate tax rate was 45% in 2024 it was 21%. Bizarrely, this outperformance can continue as the Oligarchs push for ever lower corporate taxes with the end result being a negative corporate tax rate. Government contracts and subsidies have already made this a fact of life for many S&P 500 members.

Misc says

The outperformance of the S&P 500 is directly related to the change in the US tax code.

If my tax code, you mean free trade agreements and outsourcing, then yes.

Misc says

Don't forget to factor in the incremental increase in the number of job holders per household

This...

The Federal Reserve monitors Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to track inflation.

Today's PCE report shows the annual inflation rate at 2.5%. Each monthly report on PCE has been below 3% for the last 12 months.

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

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Patrick says

Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

rate of growth is down, but prices aren’t coming back down. there won’t be deflation to compensate the loss we all deal with.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Patrick says

Factcheck: true

https://ground.news/article/us-inflation-fell-more-than-expected-to-28-in-february_23bd36

U.S. inflation decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, according to a report from the Labor Department.
Core inflation fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, as noted by FactSet.

rate of growth is down, but prices aren’t coming back down. there won’t be deflation to compensate the loss we all deal with.

Yes, at least we have disinflation and annual inflation has steadied below 3% for the last 12 months.

Hopefully household income grows at at least at a slightly greater rate than inflation.

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Differences in how Libtards and the Sane view future inflation expectations.

AD says

Yes, at least we have disinflation and annual inflation has steadied below 3% for the last 12 months.

Any inflation at all is a crime against everyone who holds dollars. It is pure theft by counterfeiting.

Our currency should be physical silver metal by weight, and not "dollars". Call it the pound.

Gold is making eyes at $3100 - how charming.

stereotomy says

Gold is making eyes at $3100 - how charming.

...but what is the number one nation gold is flowing into right now? Nope...it is not China.

DeportLibtards says

...but what is the number one nation gold is flowing into right now? Nope...it is not China.

I'm not sure but I think the number one nation it may be flowing out of is the UK. If I recall about a week ago they defaulted on contracts or whatever and we shipping a lot to the USA.