patrick.net

ForcedTQ says

So if you’ve got space to hoard it, and you’ve been planning a project, now’s probably a good time to buy your lumber order huh? Or wait more???

Dollar cost average. Buy and store some lumber each month.

I think there is more downside to lumber prices but no more than 10 to 15% below current price.

I don't see housing construction stopping in the Florida panhandle.

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Personal Consumption Expenditure is more comprehensive than Consumer Product Index such as it takes also into account non urban area inflation.

The latest 12 month PCE is 4.4%, so its been slowly trending down from the annual peak PCE of 7% in 2022. I would not be surprised if the Federal Reserves readjusts its annual inflation target to 3% to 3.5% (from originally 2%).

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From copper to wheat to natural gas, the cost of some of the world’s most important products is crashing, bringing long-awaited relief for consumers that were stung by last year’s soaring prices.
The commodity crunch unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has taken a sharp reversal, with a Bloomberg gauge dropping more than 10% since the start of the year to the lowest since 2021.

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For households and businesses, the benefits are already starting to show up as headline inflation rates fall, taking some pressure off central banks to keep aggressively raising borrowing costs.

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Energy prices have been at the forefront of this year’s commodities plunge, particularly in Europe, where natural gas futures have tumbled by about two thirds this year after shooting to records last summer. 
Even oil and its derivatives have gotten cheaper, despite an agreement by producing countries to curb crude output. Diesel prices in the US have fallen more than 30% from their 2022 peak, providing relief for truckers, farmers and consumers in the world’s largest economy.
In Germany, inflation slowed more than forecast in May, driven by energy, according to data published Wednesday. Price growth is cooling across the region, a trend expected to be seen in euro-area numbers due Thursday.

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Futures for wheat have more than halved from last year’s record high.

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Brazil is collecting its biggest-ever corn and soybean crops, tempering feed bills for chicken and hog herds. And vegetable oil prices have dropped sharply.
Restaurants and retailers are starting to take note. Last week, the chief financial officer of US burger chain Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. said on an earnings call that commodity inflation was less strong in the first quarter than expected and should continue to moderate. The head of BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. said the retailer has “seen disinflation across the business.”

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“I would expect food prices to fall over the next six months, that’s certainly the forecast here in the US,” said Joseph Glauber, senior fellow at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute. “All the signs on the commodity side still point to essentially lower prices by the end of the year with the new harvest in. It’s just taking a while for this inflation at the consumer level to abate.”

-- Bloomberg

The drop in commodity prices isn't as dramatic when priced in other currencies.

As bad off as the dollar is with our banks sitting on about $620 billion of unrealized losses (that's not even factoring in non-payment losses), what sorta passes as currency in the rest of the world has been going down against the dollar.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-calm-before-the-storm

"I don't feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough... I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don't find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough."

- SF Fed President Mary Daly




In 2021, Mary Daly made $500K, just in salary. There were 1,800 employees at the San Francisco branch alone. She had 140 'other officers’ making an average of $272k each, plus juicy benefits, bonuses and pensions.

Yeah, she has enough, so fuck the plebes.

"'I don't feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough... I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don't find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough.' - SF Fed President Mary Daly "

Patrick says

"Yeah, she has enough, so fuck the plebes. "

Yes, she makes $790,135 /year so she has enough! https://www.salary.com/research/company/federal-reserve-bank-of-dallas/president-chief-executive-officer-salary?cjid=9245696

Ripped off from another thread:

zzyzzx says

Ripped off from another thread:

Since the photo has palm trees in it, that house may be in southern California. Minimum wage in the 1950s was about $1 per hour, today it is about $16 per hour. Therefore, in the 1950s it would take 7,900 hours to buy that home, but assuming that home is worth $350,000 today it would take 21,875 hours. Even if the home cost $200,000 today and working at $20/hr, it would take $10,000 hours.

60 days after this June 30, student loan debt are no longer in deferment, and have to be paid.

source: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/federal-student-loan-forbearance-extended-yet-again

Also read below. This will likely have a more positive impact as far as lowering inflation in certain segments or aggregates such as less demand for cars, electronics, upscale groceries, etc. It may cause them to try to haggle to lower the rent for their luxury apartments.

" The end of the student loan deferment program, which allowed consumers to save an average of over $15,000 since March 2020, will have a significant impact on consumer spending. With 64% of the $1.7 trillion student loan debt remaining in forbearance, the resumption of payments will create a cash flow shock for many households, particularly among the 25 million Americans ages 18-44 who have deferred their payments. This demographic plays a crucial role in driving consumer spending, and the sudden increase of approximately $393 per month in loan payments will likely lead to reduced discretionary income and a potential decrease in spending capacity. "

source: https://zerohedge.com/markets/bullwhip-effect-cracking-us-imports-peak-season-again

ad says

This demographic plays a crucial role in driving consumer spending, and the sudden increase of approximately $393 per month in loan payments will likely lead to reduced discretionary income and a potential decrease in spending capacity. "

Good. This will make things more affordable for actual working people.

I was reading Wolf Street's blog post today about Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating core inflation has at best slowly decreased as is not where the Fed wants it to be.

That's a lot because there are not enough qualified worker and capacity to meet the demand. Maybe there are too stupid and lazy people starting out in workforce.

Its a 3rd world economic environment, where the services and goods that you took for granted in the past are more expensive and less available today.

As a country we got to put less emphasis on woke and social justice and more on innovation and productivity gains.

We have to learn how to be more self-sufficient at the family and individual unit level from fixing things at home instead of throwing them out, and growing our own food. This is somewhat of a homesteading mindset.

Also bring back more manufacturing capabilities.

Patrick says

True Patrick, as it is relative to last 12 months ago.

Awaiting if 12-month or annual Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditure will be below 3% next year and remains below 3% for a couple of years.

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12246775/Biden-regulations-cost-American-households-10K-spike-60K-reelected-2024.html

Biden's regulations have cost Americans almost $10,000 per household - and could spike to $60,000 if he is elected in 2024
Analysis found Biden regulations cost Americans $10,000 per household since 2021 – with one-third of the cost coming from new fuel and emission standards
Total per household could equal $60,000 by 2028 if Biden wins a second term

Nothing that a few more million illegals can't cure.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/people-are-hot-bedding-or-sharing-a-bed-with-a-stranger-and-sleeping-in-shifts-to-save-money-on-rent/ar-AA1dnE84?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=da276fa935224204922cd7059dcfff26&ei=17

So, gas prices can only go to $9.99 a gallon because the pumps only have 3 digits, right?

Misc says

So, gas prices can only go to $9.99 a gallon because the pumps only have 3 digits, right?

That is when it will be priced per liter. $4.50 per liter will fit just fine.

Inflation continues to trend downward. I suspect it will settle between 2.5% and 3.5% in 12 months.

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ad says

Inflation continues to trend downward. I suspect it will settle between 2.5% and 3.5% in 12 months.

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Damage is already done. What is the overall inflation since Biden got in.

RC2006 says

Damage is already done. What is the overall inflation since Biden got in.

Birdbrain Biden continued to spend money when a lot of money was given out the last year of Trump.

Biden had to pay back the left wing and Green Party voters, especially those who canvased mail-in ballots for the 2020 election in key areas like Atlanta and Phoenix suburbs.

Biden's oil/gas policies do not help, and also low supply of housing starts do not help, combined with a lot of housing getting converted to vacation rentals and second homes.

Need to see at least see energy and housing prices to drop relative to wages and income. Need more supply with energy and housing.

Cheap bread 2 yrs ago: 88c/loaf
Now: 2.19

And inflation is 8 pct

At least we use the US dollar.

In Egypt (the largest importer of wheat in the world), the inflation rate is 38%. A new record high. There may be a bit of social friction in that nation coming up.

MUMBAI, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Indian wheat prices surged to a six-month high on Tuesday due to limited supplies and robust demand ahead of the festival season, dealers said.

The increasing prices may prompt New Delhi to eliminate import duties on the cereal to bolster supplies and control prices ahead of key state polls and next year's general election.

Rising wheat prices could contribute to food inflation and potentially complicate the efforts of both the government and the central bank to contain inflation.
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Bd6r says

"Cheap bread 2 yrs ago: 88c/loaf
Now: 2.19"

This says that the inflation on bread alone is 249%. The claim that we have 8% inflation is bunk.

I calculate that as about 58% inflation per year for two years, because:

219 / 88 = 2.48

So the bread costs 2.48x more that it did 2 years ago.

1.58 ^ 2 = 2.5

It takes 58% inflation over two years to make something cost about 2.5 times what it did.

The_Deplorable says

Bd6r says

"Cheap bread 2 yrs ago: 88c/loaf
Now: 2.19"

This says that the inflation on bread alone is 249%. The claim that we have 8% inflation is bunk.

That was the point
Inflation in groceries is probably 50 pct over last 2 years if everything is taken into account
Medical insurance for students is twice more expensive compared to 2020
And they lie about 8 pct inflation

At 8% inflation, it would take 9 years for prices to double (the old "rule of 72"). When Biden took office, store brand bread at Walmart was 60 cents, and so was a gallon of store brand spring water. After one year of Biden being in office, those prices doubled.

Patrick, I would change that meme to say currency instead of money. The debt notes that we trade out of our pockets and accounts are not money at all; they ceased being such when the gold window was shut. They are just currency as the value can be manipulated at whim of the creator with no store of Value at all.

Need more supply side economics emphasis on housing and energy to lower prices.

By the way, I read an article there is a glut of truckers now as the trucking industry is in a major recession as less goods are being bought as compared to 2020 to 2022. This was no surprise since retail sales were going to destined to drop significantly from 2020 - 2022 levels.
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The cost of everything depends on the cost of energy.

Biden shut down Keystone XL on the first day of his illegitimate regime after the mass election fraud of 2020.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/11/middle-class-hourly-wages-as-of-july-2023