patrick.net

Misc says

If oil prices keep going down, we may get a negative MoM print for the CPI,

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/wholesale-prices-fell-0point5percent-in-october-for-biggest-monthly-drop-since-april-2020.html

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/rolex-patek-prices-hit-fresh-two-year-lows-subdial-index

Luxury watches have dropped 42% since April 2022 high

Rich are spending less on luxury items which means economy is slowing and inflation is subsiding

.

.

Inflation going down and Walmart says there may be deflation for its groceries as Walmart is predicting a major economic downturn

"The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for unemployment benefits jumped by 13,000 to 231,000 last week, the highest in nearly two years, and corporate layoffs are starting to accelerate."

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-cheers-lower-inflation-new-risk-has-investors-on-edge

.

ad says

.

Inflation going down and Walmart says there may be deflation for its groceries as Walmart is predicting a major economic downturn

"The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for unemployment benefits jumped by 13,000 to 231,000 last week, the highest in nearly two years, and corporate layoffs are starting to accelerate."

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-cheers-lower-inflation-new-risk-has-investors-on-edge

.

That's what the Fed wanted.

.

advertisement for central Florida homes in the late 1950's
.



.

Eat your iPads

Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warns about the US federal debt. Inflation will result in order to sustain debt payment or service (i.e., inflate out of debt crisis).

All the productivity and innovation gains (even in services) will be negated by inflation so as to result in a +3% annual increase in core inflation especially housing and services.

I remember the mantra in the 1990s and early 2000s about "doing more with less or the same".

Today is not so much that paradigm on total quality management (TQM) as it has been completely overshadowed with Diversity, Equity and Inclusion emphasis.

***************

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/11/19/us-dollar-collapse-acceleration-337-trillion-shock-fed-inflation-warning-makes-the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-and-crypto-price-surge

In September, U.S. national debt—the amount of money borrowed by the federal government to cover operating expenses—topped $33 trillion for the first time, according to figures from the U.S. department of the Treasury, with spending turbo-charged by the Covid crisis and lockdowns that paralised the economy in recent years.

"Ray Dalio laying out the bullish case for bitcoin," bitcoin analyst and founder of Reflexivity Research, Will Clemente, posted to X (Twitter).

In 2022, the U.S. notched a $1.7 trillion deficit, with $659 billion spent on net interest costs in fiscal 2023 to finance the debt.

"The government is going to have to continually and increasingly issue more debt to fund their previous debt payments, similar to an individual taking out a new credit card to pay off old credit card debt," Clemente said. "Monetary debasement is mathematically programmed."

See https://www.rt.com/india/587535-india-russia-oil-trade/

The_Deplorable says

See https://www.rt.com/india/587535-india-russia-oil-trade/

Yep.

"Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has asserted that India, the world's second-largest oil buyer following China, played a pivotal role in stabilizing global oil and gas prices by continuing trade with Russia, thereby mitigating global inflation.

Speaking at an event hosted by the High Commission of India in London earlier this week, he noted the “exceptional steadiness” of India-Russia ties while emphasizing that the East does not view Russia as a “revisionist power,” unlike the West."

ad says

"Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar..." [Big snip of unrelated nonsense]

Why are you changing the subject?

The topic is the price of gasoline in Los Angeles on October 5, 2023 at $8.00 per gallon. Any thoughts about this?

The_Deplorable says

ad says

"Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar..." [Big snip of unrelated nonsense]

Why are you changing the subject?

The topic is the price of gasoline in Los Angeles on October 5, 2023 at $8.00 per gallon. Any thoughts about this?

I was copying some of the quotes from the web link you provided in your post ( https://www.rt.com/india/587535-india-russia-oil-trade/).

I am not sure why it costs about $8.00 for Los Angeles, Mexifornia.

Gas buddy shows average of $5 per gallon for Los Angeles: https://www.gasbuddy.com/home?search=los+angeles%2C+ca&fuel=1&method=all&maxAge=0

Which I can't fathom since that is nearly twice as much as Panama City, Florida prices.

Its $2.59 in the best place on Earth (Panama City, Florida) : https://www.gasbuddy.com/station/209198

.

.

Heard CapWealth Founder Tim Pagliara get interviewed about 15 minutes ago on Bloomberg Radio WBBR.

He said he is bullish on energy as fossil fuel is still going to be needed such as to power a mega factory in Kansas that makes EV and solar power batteries.

He did say the S&P 500 has only returned about 6.5% annually over last 24 years despite it being historically being promoted as returning 10% a year. He said invest in growth stocks like Microsoft and Costco which beat the S&P 500.

For me, I like S&P 500 Growth ETF (ticker: VOOG) in order to offer a better real return (i.e., after inflation return).

He says expect the 10 Year Treasury to steady around 4.25% when inflation settles around 2%. He sees now we are in a period of reduction in inflation (aka: disinflation).

.

Patrick says

I'd like to see the updated for 2023 version. I'm calling bullshit on the wage increases as well.

ad says

yeah, and you could have gotten a better deal ... according to Gas Buddy website, its $4.09 at Kwik Serv 2370 Alum Rock Ave San Jose, CA

Thank for the tip, ad. I've used Gas Buddy but didn't notice that one.

I happened to be passing by that place today so I filled up. Today's price at Kwik Serve was $4.039

ad says

Best price I could find for a Butterball turkey around here is $1.97/pound.

HeadSet says

ad says

Best price I could find for a Butterball turkey around here is $1.97/pound.

I got the Butterball turkey at $1.28 a pound at the Walmart in Panama City Beach on Front Beach Rd. This seems like same price I paid back in November 2021.

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-third-millionaires-us-now-120000548.html

Almost a third of millionaires in the US now say they're part of the middle class — even the 'regular rich' like doctors, lawyers don't feel well off.

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/biden-administration-says-cost-of-thanksgiving-dinner-is-down-this-year-if-you-dont-buy-anything

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs All Surged: Americans Figured it Out

Banks, forced by competition from money market funds, got the memo.

Money market funds have been paying over 5% since about April 2023, up from near 0% in April 2022, and Americans are liking it. A lot. And that has forced banks to compete for deposits by offering attractive interest rates on CDs. And Americans have flocked to those too.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/24/money-market-funds-large-cds-small-cds-all-surged-americans-figured-it-out/

This is SUPPOSED to be how the banking system is to work: paying savers not the Fed. The Fed discount window is not supposed to be the first resort for bank lending funds but rather the last. But close to ten years of QE bullshit has been otherwise.

#ReturningToNormal

$16 meal at McDonalds ... McDonalds pays about $14 an hour in Bay County, Florida...

I remember making about $4.50 an hour (with no tips) back in 1986 at a restaurant as a busboy and McDonalds Big Mac meal costing about $2.50 ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/04/lifestyle/16-for-a-burger-fries-and-soda-mcdonalds-customers-slam-franchise-fume-its-no-longer-affordable/

This explains how McDonalds is making more revenue: https://nypost.com/2023/10/30/business/mcdonalds-revenue-soars-as-it-hikes-menu-prices-18-big-macs/

Though the stock is about 28% above 2019 price level, and inflation has been about 24% from 2019 to present day ... so McDonalds stock has not had any major real gain since 2019 ..

.

I remember close to 10 years ago 29 cent/lb turkeys after Thanksgiving. Now its about 80 cents/lb. Let's go Brandon!

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-inflation-economy-cost-of-living/

Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math

After years of inflation, US consumers are shouldering a burden unlike anything seen in decades — even as the pace of price increases has slowed.

It now requires $119.27 to buy the same goods and services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic. Since early 2020, prices have risen about as much as they had in the full 10 years preceding the health emergency.

It’s hard to find an area of a household budget that’s been spared: Groceries are up 25% since January 2020. Same with electricity. Used-car prices have climbed 35%, auto insurance 33% and rents roughly 20%.

Many Americans have seen their pay rise rapidly since 2020, but much of those gains have been gobbled up by inflation. Some of the fastest wage increases in decades have left the average American largely no better off than before.

In the four years before the pandemic, grocery prices increased less than 1%, offering shoppers a certain predictability.

Even then, consumers occasionally saw price spikes for specific items due to drought, disease or natural disaster. But the nearly ubiquitous increases of the last few years — and the brisk pace — have been bewildering.

A pound of ground beef now costs $5.23 on average, up from $3.89 in January 2020. Coffee is up some $2 a pound. Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are nearly 14% higher. At one point, the price of a carton of eggs was triple its pre-pandemic price.

For most Americans, the cost of housing is by far the largest expense in any given month. As a result, the run-up in rental prices — which looks even more acute when using data from private companies like Zillow Group Inc. — has made it harder for many to save or have enough left over for other spending.

It’s also a difficult moment for renters to make the leap to homeownership. Mortgage rates are around a 23-year high, and home values have jumped nearly 42% since the start of 2020

Those who owned homes before the recent run-up in mortgage rates and prices have been shielded from one of the most dramatic impacts of inflation, and the appreciation in home values has markedly boosted their wealth.

It’s “like winning the lottery in hindsight,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow.

But it’s not all roses for homeowners. The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes, and the surge in mortgage rates has prevented many of them from moving.

Americans haven’t gotten any respite from their other bills either. Electricity bills have climbed 25% since January 2020, and natural gas is up 29% in the same time period. And like inflation more generally, jumps in electricity prices have been uneven across states and regions.

Car insurance is up 33%, and the combination of higher car prices and a surge in borrowing costs has pushed the average monthly payment for a new car to a record high of $736. According to Edmunds, a record 17.5% of consumers financing a new vehicle are now paying $1,000 or more a month.

More details in the article along with graphs 📈 (paywall though)

zzyzzx says

The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes

Only for recent buyers in California.

.
Forecasters marked up their projections for the annual so-called core personal consumption expenditures index largely through the end of next year, per the results of the November survey. The measure, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is seen at 2.5% at the end of 2024, up from 2.4% in last month’s poll.

Meantime, the overall PCE metric and the alternative consumer price index are seen receding faster than previously thought through mid-2024. Those measures have shown greater disinflation in recent months largely due to a pullback in energy prices.

While recent reports have showed encouraging signs that price pressures are easing, Fed officials have repeatedly indicated they must see sustained signs of cooling before declaring victory on inflation. Policymakers favor the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying price pressures.

Though economists still expect the Fed to start loosening monetary policy in the second quarter of next year, they now see the central bank keeping interest rates higher through the end of 2025.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-see-stubborn-us-core-140000636.html

.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/pricey-patty-monday-november-27-2023

https://www.tiktok.com/@topherolive/video/7179658803867077934

No wonder they are so mad about TikTok all the time.

Good summary on COL increase since 2020: https://archive.ph/2kcgQ

I like getting a free McDonakds sandwich when I complete a mcdvoice survey. The McDonalds I go to always seems to have this survey option on the receipt.

So I get a fish sandwich for free along with a $9 small meal of a chicken crispy sandwich with fries and soda.

Its enough calories for a meal at $9 compared to the average starting wage for fast food of $15 in Bay County, Florida.

.

Dollar has weakened : https://news.yahoo.com/dollar-weakens-further-rate-cut-030003386.html

The dollar extended losses Wednesday as traders ramped up bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the new year after officials sounded optimistic notes on the battle against inflation.

The PCE for October 2024 is to be reported on 30 November.

Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...

I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...

it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...

so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/

.....

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

PCE reported today for October 2023. The Federal Reserve states is makes its decision on the Fed Funds Rate based on the PCE.

PCE is 3% for last 12 months

Inflation continues to trend downward. I think annual inflation will reach 2.5% by April 2024.

....

ad says

Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...

I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...

it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...

so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/

.....

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

GNL says

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?