patrick.net

They can't continue to fuck over the young for the benefit of banks and boomers forever.

If that trend continues, the median age of a house buyer will be greater than the median age at death. Then all those buyers will die and the market will be flooded with their houses.

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

Or not, because the Fed will once again print more cash to buy up the mortgages from the banks, socializing the loss once again via inflation, screwing everyone. I bet that's how it plays out.

What should happen in a just world is that the banks die because of their own stupidity in lending. Your savings in the bank above the FDIC limit ($200K?) will evaporate.

But then prices will be low enough that once again young couples (if they have any income) will easily be able to buy a house and start a family.

The last time banks were held accountable was after the S&L crisis in the 1980's. Since then it's been almost 3 generations of corruption and grift.

There were epic deals to be had in the early 1990's, especially in the oil belt.

A shit ton of truth in all of that @patrick for sure. If...

"When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

The banks are limited in what they can charge in rent, both by renter incomes, and by the many rental alternatives.

Patrick says

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet,

...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!

MolotovCocktail says

"...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!"

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The_Deplorable says

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

GNL says

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

Banks hate being landlords, hiring landscapers, paying property taxes, etc. The rest only want them if there's ever-increasing rents on the horizon and the carry costs are low.

Boomers will pass and Millies will dump their property, not wanting to manage it from several states away, nor taking a pay cut and having to find a decent job in states known for lower wages (hence why they retired there, double edged sword).

We had a taste of this with COVID, Northeasterners went to FL, Midwesterners to Tampa, Californians in Texas esp. Austin and San Antonio. After COVID, they got called back at least partially full time and you bet their ass they looked into getting local employment, but there were slimmer pickings than SFBA or NYC Metro, and what they found paid WAY less. Which is a big reason for those dropping markets, both rent and house price.

People ALWAYS brag about where they chose to retire as being the best. But the low cost of living is almost always because it's non-competitive in the jobs and wages department for NON-retirees

MolotovCocktail says

"The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up."

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

MolotovCocktail says

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

The_Deplorable says

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected.

AD says

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

They are the ones who drove those expensive prices. Canada has massive amounts if immigration relative to their overall population for about 15 years. To bail out their pension and health care system, mostly.

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

The_Deplorable says

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

So they claim. And no. Impressive as that might be, not enough.

Estimate by Pew in 2023 was 14 million. No way. More like triple that amount, at least.