patrick.net

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid?

Not all, but many did.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

The secret real reason Insurance premiums are going up.

Boomers are passing earlier than predicted, driving is safer, homes are better built, Obamacare massive subsidies for private insurance companies, etc. Insurance companies should be wallowing in cash but for one reason:

But commercial real estate tanked and is probably never going to recover to Pre-COVID/Pre-Amazon/Pre-Online Health. Which is where, for decades, Insurers invested much of their excess from the premiums.

When State Farm sends you a 30% increase, it's because Midstate Office Building in nearby City is half empty with 23% below expected rental rates. The 7% is just the usual bullshit "We're going out of business" from insurers. Insurers that between 1970-2000s wallowed in cash from healthy, younger Boomer contributions more than offsetting any payouts to the smaller Silent gen.

Insurers are like regional chain furniture stores, going out of business for decades, ha.

It's worse than that - the hurricane-force tailwind that was the 30 year T-bond gong from 18% to 2% over the last 40 years is over. No free lunch from ever appreciating long bonds that constituted the bulk of their risk-free assets.

"I'm on a fixed income, besides, this is a concrete and steel building. Our home back in MN, MI, NY is made of wood and..."

I am getting a letter/postcard every week over last couple years where straw men representing institutional buyers asking if I want to sell rental property for cash. Institutions are still buying but not that much like used to be.

Looks like the rents didn't keep rising as extrapolaters extrapolated, but the carrying costs went up "Bigly"

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Looks like the rents didn't keep rising as extrapolaters extrapolated, but the carrying costs went up "Bigly"

We saw about a 25% drop in our Florida property tax premium compared to last year. Also property tax is flat.

Rent in Panama City Beach is around 2021 levels.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1604-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87634367_zpid/

,

As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

"I'm on a fixed income, besides, this is a concrete and steel building. Our home back in MN, MI, NY is made of wood and..."

Ok but, this has nothing to do with economic conditions.

AD says

As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

What’s the HOA fee?

Glock-n-Load says

Ok but, this has nothing to do with economic conditions.

Glock-n-Load says

AD says

As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

What’s the HOA fee?

I researched this and it was $420 last year. Now it is $383.

Property insurance is going down in Florida so that may be one reason, as we are paying about 25% less on property insurance in Panama City Beach compared to last year.
.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.

We pay about annual premium $1650 for HO-3 property insurance on our Panama City Beach townhome (3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage) and replacement value of $275,000. We are about a 2 mile walk (via sidewalk) to the white sand beaches and beach park.

Also there is a master insurance for the HOA for our building which is about $1400 a year. So overall $2850 per year for insurance ;

HOA master insurance and our own property insurance total to about 1.1% of our replacement value.

AD says

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.

We pay about annual premium $1650 for HO-3 property insurance on our Panama City Beach townhome (3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage) and replacement value of $275,000. We are about a 2 mile walk (via sidewalk) to the white sand beaches and beach park.

Also there is a master insurance for the HOA for our building which is about $1400 a year. So overall $2850 per year for insurance ;

HOA master insurance and our own property insurance total to about 1.1% of our replacement value.

So, how far away do you live from the listing you posted?

They can't continue to fuck over the young for the benefit of banks and boomers forever.

If that trend continues, the median age of a house buyer will be greater than the median age at death. Then all those buyers will die and the market will be flooded with their houses.

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

Or not, because the Fed will once again print more cash to buy up the mortgages from the banks, socializing the loss once again via inflation, screwing everyone. I bet that's how it plays out.

What should happen in a just world is that the banks die because of their own stupidity in lending. Your savings in the bank above the FDIC limit ($200K?) will evaporate.

But then prices will be low enough that once again young couples (if they have any income) will easily be able to buy a house and start a family.

The last time banks were held accountable was after the S&L crisis in the 1980's. Since then it's been almost 3 generations of corruption and grift.

There were epic deals to be had in the early 1990's, especially in the oil belt.

A shit ton of truth in all of that @patrick for sure. If...

"When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

The banks are limited in what they can charge in rent, both by renter incomes, and by the many rental alternatives.

Patrick says

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet,

...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!

MolotovCocktail says

"...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!"

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The_Deplorable says

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

GNL says

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

Banks hate being landlords, hiring landscapers, paying property taxes, etc. The rest only want them if there's ever-increasing rents on the horizon and the carry costs are low.

Boomers will pass and Millies will dump their property, not wanting to manage it from several states away, nor taking a pay cut and having to find a decent job in states known for lower wages (hence why they retired there, double edged sword).

We had a taste of this with COVID, Northeasterners went to FL, Midwesterners to Tampa, Californians in Texas esp. Austin and San Antonio. After COVID, they got called back at least partially full time and you bet their ass they looked into getting local employment, but there were slimmer pickings than SFBA or NYC Metro, and what they found paid WAY less. Which is a big reason for those dropping markets, both rent and house price.

People ALWAYS brag about where they chose to retire as being the best. But the low cost of living is almost always because it's non-competitive in the jobs and wages department for NON-retirees

MolotovCocktail says

"The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up."

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

MolotovCocktail says

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

The_Deplorable says

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected.

AD says

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

They are the ones who drove those expensive prices. Canada has massive amounts if immigration relative to their overall population for about 15 years. To bail out their pension and health care system, mostly.