patrick.net

Trump does horrible things with housing market, everything to inflate the bubble. If you won’t buy it, he will have FN/FR buy up securities to keep it going.

Problem with not letting capitalism self correct is it costs exponentially more every time to keep the bubble from blowing.

The problem with letting capitalism self-correct at the moment is big losses in the midterms.

Patrick says

The problem with letting capitalism self-correct at the moment is big losses in the midterms.

Of course. It’s choosing short term benefits at expense of the next generation. Like no one cares about their kids or something. I’m scared for mine. They are inheriting inflation, debt, and nation still to this day overran with Indian scammers and South American illegals.

Patrick says

The problem with letting capitalism self-correct at the moment is big losses in the midterms.

Sales volume has increased over last couple of months for townhomes on east end of Panama City Beach, as it appears that prices are at least 20% below the all time high (ATH) set in 2022 and FHA and VA mortgage rates are around 5.6%.

It will significantly increase if the prices are 25% below ATH and the mortgage rates drop below 5.25%.

MolotovCocktail says

If so, then we should be seeing lots of proprietorships forming.

HeadSet says

f so, then we should be seeing lots of proprietorships forming.

Not at all. Covid taught them that the government can shut down/steal anything they've worked for just BECAUSE.

This is true. I knew a couple that owned a restaurant in San Francisco (Hops and Hominy) that was doing well, until the government just shut everything down and killed it.

Patrick says

This is true. I knew a couple that owned a restaurant in San Francisco (Hops and Hominy) that was doing well, until the government just shut everything down and killed it.

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

The secret real reason Insurance premiums are going up.

Boomers are passing earlier than predicted, driving is safer, homes are better built, Obamacare massive subsidies for private insurance companies, etc. Insurance companies should be wallowing in cash but for one reason:

But commercial real estate tanked and is probably never going to recover to Pre-COVID/Pre-Amazon/Pre-Online Health. Which is where, for decades, Insurers invested much of their excess from the premiums.

When State Farm sends you a 30% increase, it's because Midstate Office Building in nearby City is half empty with 23% below expected rental rates. The 7% is just the usual bullshit "We're going out of business" from insurers. Insurers that between 1970-2000s wallowed in cash from healthy, younger Boomer contributions more than offsetting any payouts to the smaller Silent gen.

Insurers are like regional chain furniture stores, going out of business for decades, ha.

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid?

Not all, but many did.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

The secret real reason Insurance premiums are going up.

Boomers are passing earlier than predicted, driving is safer, homes are better built, Obamacare massive subsidies for private insurance companies, etc. Insurance companies should be wallowing in cash but for one reason:

But commercial real estate tanked and is probably never going to recover to Pre-COVID/Pre-Amazon/Pre-Online Health. Which is where, for decades, Insurers invested much of their excess from the premiums.

When State Farm sends you a 30% increase, it's because Midstate Office Building in nearby City is half empty with 23% below expected rental rates. The 7% is just the usual bullshit "We're going out of business" from insurers. Insurers that between 1970-2000s wallowed in cash from healthy, younger Boomer contributions more than offsetting any payouts to the smaller Silent gen.

Insurers are like regional chain furniture stores, going out of business for decades, ha.

It's worse than that - the hurricane-force tailwind that was the 30 year T-bond gong from 18% to 2% over the last 40 years is over. No free lunch from ever appreciating long bonds that constituted the bulk of their risk-free assets.

"I'm on a fixed income, besides, this is a concrete and steel building. Our home back in MN, MI, NY is made of wood and..."

I am getting a letter/postcard every week over last couple years where straw men representing institutional buyers asking if I want to sell rental property for cash. Institutions are still buying but not that much like used to be.

Looks like the rents didn't keep rising as extrapolaters extrapolated, but the carrying costs went up "Bigly"

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Looks like the rents didn't keep rising as extrapolaters extrapolated, but the carrying costs went up "Bigly"

We saw about a 25% drop in our Florida property tax premium compared to last year. Also property tax is flat.

Rent in Panama City Beach is around 2021 levels.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1604-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87634367_zpid/

,

As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/o2geGuohNffX1WocQ6XZOGF82

Good to see rents drop, keeps out the speculators and pushes those who want to leave the state to sell and not rent out.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

"I'm on a fixed income, besides, this is a concrete and steel building. Our home back in MN, MI, NY is made of wood and..."

Ok but, this has nothing to do with economic conditions.

AD says

As far as this unit

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/

Sold on 1/13/2026 for $232,000

Sold in 9/2023 for $280,000

Sold in 10/2021 for $235,000

Sold in 8/2011 for $139,000

The Panama City Beach townhome's sales price appreciated around 3.75% from 2011 o 2026.

.

What’s the HOA fee?

Glock-n-Load says

Ok but, this has nothing to do with economic conditions.