patrick.net

The last time banks were held accountable was after the S&L crisis in the 1980's. Since then it's been almost 3 generations of corruption and grift.

There were epic deals to be had in the early 1990's, especially in the oil belt.

A shit ton of truth in all of that @patrick for sure. If...

"When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet, people will walk away from their underwater mortgages, and banks will have to take epic losses.

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

The banks are limited in what they can charge in rent, both by renter incomes, and by the many rental alternatives.

Patrick says

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet,

...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!

MolotovCocktail says

"...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!"

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The_Deplorable says

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

GNL says

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

Banks hate being landlords, hiring landscapers, paying property taxes, etc. The rest only want them if there's ever-increasing rents on the horizon and the carry costs are low.

Boomers will pass and Millies will dump their property, not wanting to manage it from several states away, nor taking a pay cut and having to find a decent job in states known for lower wages (hence why they retired there, double edged sword).

We had a taste of this with COVID, Northeasterners went to FL, Midwesterners to Tampa, Californians in Texas esp. Austin and San Antonio. After COVID, they got called back at least partially full time and you bet their ass they looked into getting local employment, but there were slimmer pickings than SFBA or NYC Metro, and what they found paid WAY less. Which is a big reason for those dropping markets, both rent and house price.

People ALWAYS brag about where they chose to retire as being the best. But the low cost of living is almost always because it's non-competitive in the jobs and wages department for NON-retirees

MolotovCocktail says

"The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up."

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

MolotovCocktail says

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

The_Deplorable says

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected.

AD says

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

They are the ones who drove those expensive prices. Canada has massive amounts if immigration relative to their overall population for about 15 years. To bail out their pension and health care system, mostly.

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

The_Deplorable says

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

So they claim. And no. Impressive as that might be, not enough.

Estimate by Pew in 2023 was 14 million. No way. More like triple that amount, at least.

This townhome unit sold a couple of days ago for about 18% below its 2023 purchase price of $305,000.

It could have reasonably sold for $325,000 in 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was below 4%.

I noticed sales picking up with the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate at no more than 6% and prices about 20% below 2022 all-time-high levels.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1820-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/246091125_zpid/

MolotovCocktail says

Its not so bad as 30 Year conventional mortgages are around 6% compare to 8% in 2023. The way Trump is trying to manage the deficit, I think the 10 Year Treasury will remain near 4% and the conventional mortgage between 5.5% and 6%.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed

.

https://ground.news/article/home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-widest-margin-on-record-redfin-says

Last month, Redfin estimated home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47%, roughly 631,000, marking the largest gap since 2013 based on national listings and buyer data.

Redfin found active buyers fell to the lowest level in 12 years last month as homebuyers pulled back due to high prices, mortgage rates, layoffs and uncertainty, while supply rose in Sun Belt pandemic boomtowns and sellers who bought near the market peak delayed resetting expectations.

Among Sun Belt metros, Austin recorded 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus, the widest gap among top markets.

Patrick says

https://ground.news/article/home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-widest-margin-on-record-redfin-says

Last month, Redfin estimated home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47%, roughly 631,000, marking the largest gap since 2013 based on national listings and buyer data.

Redfin found active buyers fell to the lowest level in 12 years last month as homebuyers pulled back due to high prices, mortgage rates, layoffs and uncertainty, while supply rose in Sun Belt pandemic boomtowns and sellers who bought near the market peak delayed resetting expectations.

Among Sun Belt metros, Austin recorded 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus, the widest gap among top markets.

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.

MolotovCocktail says

Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.

HeadSet says

Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.

Townhomes on east end of Panama City Beach are clearly selling at early 2021 price levels or about 20% below all time high set in 2022.

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.

^^^ This

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

stereotomy says

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

This is also why a lot of multifamily also still charge $2,500/mo BUT are giving off 5-6 months free. They can't reduce the rental price as it shows on their books because that in turn fucks with their financing.

stereotomy says

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

Those multifamilies won't vanish, however. The bank will get rid of it ASAP and the firesale buyers will cut the rents. Or, converted to condos at a very good price. Overpriced ticky tack Shacks and Al Bundys will get SCHLONGED.

1-2 beds under $1500 in/near major metros, not in the sticks 2 hours from employment
Dallas
https://www.redfin.com/city/30794/TX/Dallas/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
San Antone
https://www.redfin.com/city/16657/TX/San-Antonio/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Austin (down 21% from COVID peak)
https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Orlando
https://www.redfin.com/city/13655/FL/Orlando/apartments-under-1500-for-rent
Saint Pete
https://www.redfin.com/city/16164/FL/St-Petersburg/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

Colorado Springs
https://www.redfin.com/city/4147/CO/Colorado-Springs/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Nashville
https://www.redfin.com/city/13415/TN/Nashville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Asheville
https://www.redfin.com/city/555/NC/Asheville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Atlanta
https://www.redfin.com/city/30756/GA/Atlanta/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

COVID was the peak of a ~20-year cycle; that trend is now over, it is no pause. We're in a whole new housing market driven by the largest generation dying off or downsizing, and a halt to mass migration.

With the mass stock run up since the 80s and the real estate since the late 90s, Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.

1. Households are half the size than they were in the 80s
2. Boomers are dying or downsizing
3. Immigration is in reverse.
4. Massive multifamily overbuilds; bankruptcy of investors doesn't matter - the buildings remain and will be sold or rented and competing with overpriced tick tack shacks and bunker ranch houses
4b. $1500 no responsibility/month or $2500+unlimited liability/month?

Greatest Ranches? Postwar Ranches? Midcentury Ranches? "Cracker Box"? Concrete Block ranches.

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

...and the smarter bitches are starting to figure this out (too late):

MolotovCocktail says

When the feminism wears off:

AD says

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?

Well, let's see. The median priced home in 2022 was about $428,700. At 3.5%, the nut would be about $1,925/mo. To buy a $1,925/mo home at today's 6%, the home price would need to fall to about $322,000. To accommodate the slight wage inflation and the stickiness of falling prices, I suppose the same family that could afford $428,700 at 3.5% in 2022 could afford maybe $350,000 at 6% today. That could also be affected if property taxes and HOA fees had major increases since 2022.

So, I see a $350k median USA home price in late 2026 unless we get 50 year mortgages or gov sponsored down payments, etc.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.

Correct, but there is the issue that localities like the inflated house values and set property taxes accordingly. Even when prices fall, the localities will not want to give up their accustomed receipts so taxes will stay inflated.

I realized this not too long ago. Government pumps up real estate, because many at the top are invested in it. There won’t be a crash, they’ll just print money like they did last 2 bailouts. Prices will only go up.

We are all on a tight leash.

See below.

Depends on location in Florida as Florida Panhandle like Panama City Beach is within a day drive of Chicago (for those with family there) and has white sand beaches as well as many non-tourism jobs like Navy base, Tyndall AFB, Project InSPIRE, a +700 worker electric boat design and construction campus, Florida State campus, Gulf Coast College campus, Florida State University teaching hospital, etc.

Panama City / Bay County is adjusting for future demographic changes.

I can see whereas The Villages does not have any major job centers within a 1 hour drive.

...............................................................................

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15456887/retirement-home-florida-boomers-crisis.html

The problem is so bad, she said, that she does not know what will come of older, outdated retirement communities like Florida's The Villages, which is filled with Boomers.

'What is it, 350,000 homes in the middle of nowhere Florida?' she said.

'Is that gonna be low income housing at some point? Is it gonna be underwater in the future?

'Like, who's gonna live in The Villages once the Boomers are no longer on this earth?'

HeadSet says

So, I see a $350k median USA home price in late 2026 unless we get 50 year mortgages or gov sponsored down payments, etc.

Median price is now around $405,000.

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says

.
.
.
Best circumstance is median home price remains at $405,000 for next 5 years while

1) the 30 yr mortgage rate is no more than 6%
2) household income increases 3.5% a year

AD says

) the 30 yr mortgage rate is no more than 6%
2) household income increases 3.5% a year

Neither is going to happen.

Demographics is destiny.

House prices are going to fall over the next two decades and nothing can stop it.

The average buyer right now is 60 years old. Boomers buying from Boomers.

The whole housing market is frozen because sellers are holding out for $405k and most buyers are refusing to pay it, happy to enjoy declining rents and wait it out. The only buyers who are willing are maybe 5%, 10% tops of households.

Smaller households means no rush to find bedrooms for John and Jane and Joe (or today, Braden or Payton, and no other kid).

The same reason investors won't buy the $405k SFHs either (rents trending down, carrying costs and borrowing costs up)

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

House prices are going to fall over the next two decades and nothing can stop it.

Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years. You been to Walmart or any store lately? Everything doubled or tripled, including stocks. There are no productivity gains, we just inflated everything x2. Fed actually was forced to raise rates to prevent run away inflation, pissing off Trump who is into permanent inflation like the rest of federal government. Elites on both sides are invested into same markets, same hedge funds, they all want inflation. This is how we get national debt, ever increasing prices, and destruction of the middle class.

Yes, I think probably all "economic gains" have come from inflating prices. And increasing the annual deficit.

GNL says

Yes, I think probably all "economic gains" have come from inflating prices. And increasing the annual deficit.

That’s where all of it came from, we live in very strange times.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years.

A temporary blocking maneuver that doesn't work for long. And all it does is freeze home sales and makes them unaffordable even more anyway. Wages are not keeping up.

Demographics is running this show no matter what.

I can see the Feds printing money to give first time buyers a nice down payment. Won't be enough for Tier 1 markets but could make a difference in breaking the frozen markets in exurban/red state America while keeping prices from falling badly a little bit longer.

Of course, there will be fraud, etc. Esp with immigrants.

And the Feds only have to politically keep the can kicking for 10 or so years, not forever. Just to keep the Boomers livin' in style before they bulk of them die off. This is also what is meant when we say "Demographics is running the show..". It's a Clusterfuck candle for assets burning at both ends of the demographic trend.