patrick.net

The office-debt meltdown keeps getting worse. The motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. But now what?

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Look at credit cards. People want to keep their houses. Those numbers are up bigly for day to day purchases. Not sure what Trump can do. Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels. Clinton, Bush and Obama having two consecutive terms regardless of how you feel about them led to some stability.

We'll see if Trump can right the ship in 4 years. He's already trying. Not sure how quickly he can extinguish this dumpster fire he's left with. This is a shit show right now. Where is Biden? Don't care about Harris as she's a dumb ass. I think everyone has just gone on vacation till the 20th.

WookieMan says

Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels.

Although they say don't mistake incompetence for malice, it is also important to not mistake malice for incompetence.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

For houses, yes.

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long* ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

* Not long ago = 2022

Blackstone is selling. His most recent video has data on the Blackstone and their and other Holding Companies, letting go of 3-5% of their inventory in TX and FL, where their biggest shares are.
Blackstone dumping in FL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g&t=57s

Blackstone and others dumping in TX, the #1 state for Investor-owned SFH:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSrstSITn7A

"I'm smarter than Wall Street" - Harry Homeseller Holding Out

Fuck the rates. It's the underlying price that's the stumbling block. Mortgage rates don't impact property taxes or homeowner's insurance; the price does.

AmericanKulak says

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

Not long ago = 2022

Someone needs to tell this guy that: https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

"So? Look at those early 20s and mid 30s peaks!"

And we haven't built 50-60M housing units these past 3 decades? Is the boomer housing going to disappear along with the boomers?

Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more. Also house building has maintained a fairly slow pace since covid, builders are cautious amd hesitant. Not a lot of new construction has hit the market, reducing overall supply

mell says

"Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will
go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more."

No because we are having an artificial housing bubble for the last 30 years or so going back to
Alan Greenspan. My take is that under Trump the housing bubble will collapse.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will
go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more."

No because we are having an artificial housing bubble for the last 30 years or so going back to
Alan Greenspan. My take is that under Trump the housing bubble will collapse.

For that to happen you need a significant recession. with a lot of 3% mortgage holders losing their jobs, otherwise these 15 and 30 yr mortgages are a lock and people will stick with it. Don't see a significant recession happening under Trump. People have been calling for the collapse since this site existed and it never happened. The closest we came was 2008 but then they pumped a lot of money into the sector and it hasn't left it yet, mostly people sitting on fixed low apr mortgages. Not saying RE is a good investment right now, but no crash in sight imo

mell says

"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

All countries around the world practice zirp yet, what it causes is inflation and I agree with you about fraudulent, but willing to bet prices will rise around 2-3% 2025, they rose 4% in 2024. Zirp is not directly correlated with RE, just one factor. There is a chance of a significant downturn in RE if interest rates rise to double digits and beyond, not without it all else being equal imo

The_Deplorable says

mell says
"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

We're at historic normal or slightly normal rates right now. As mell said the rates don't matter if people don't sell. That's where we're at. The 20-35 crowd just keeps renting. No buyer demand. Owners have good rates. The people moving is for jobs now, not location or lifestyle. That was done after 2012-2018 roughly.

If anything housing will continue to rise under Trump because if he reduces the cost of energy the cost of building plummets. No one is buying is the problem. So builders are reluctant. You're going to see a +5% or -5% depending where you live the next 4 years. Coastal areas will be down most likely and TX. No crash coming.