patrick.net

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For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate mortgage, there is a 10% drop in price.

The Fed Funds rate needs to steady around 4.5% and inflation needs to continue to drop below 6% in 2023, so that interest rates like prime rate and 30 year mortgage rate drop and steady.

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%. That should be enough to return them near to 2020 levels.

Well, since we started around 3%, and we are at 7%, does that mean prices should be 40% less? I’ve seen 10-15% drop so far. Anything more than 30% drop will bring investment capital sniffing around for deals on long-term investments/rentals.

HeadSet says

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I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%.

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

And I would argue those were much better days for America as a whole.

GNL says

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

And I would argue those were much better days for America as a whole.

They don't have starter homes anymore. County governments especially California are not going to approve single family detached houses that are priced for the working class. Maybe Florida as I am seeing this in the Florida handle that a couple who both make $16 an hour (entry level here salary) could afford a small detached home (3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage).

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yvrl6j/closing_in_7_days_is_it_too_late_to_pull_out/

Closing in 7 days, is it too late to pull out?

Pulling out will always save you money if you know what i mean.

Got a cold call out of the blue yesterday from an agent wanting to know if I was interested in selling and if was curious how much my house would sell for. I have an unlisted number so not sure how she got it, but even after saying no she kept at it for a bit until I asked her what part of "no" did she not understand.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day. It was an Open Door house and I got it for $70k less than what they paid for it in May ($130k less than what it was listed for in June).

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passbook savings were 6%

They were much better days--50% of the population didn't expect the other 50% to support them. Also, if all you had at retirement was $100K, put in a 6% CD would produce about $500 a month risk free income that would be spent and taxed. Zero % interest rates were kept around so long no one remembers when they were 5%-6% and zero seems normal now.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day. It was an Open Door house and I got it for $70k less than what they paid for it in May ($130k less than what it was listed for in June).

Still doesn't mean it is a bargain.

RWSGFY says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day

hmmm no counter offer. Means they paid too much.

B.A.C.A.H. says

RWSGFY says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day

hmmm no counter offer. Means they paid too much.

Yep, and I do not see what the original listing price was. How do we know it wasn't a 3 million dollar home?

Pulling out? Is this Catholic birth control in the real estate market?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-fall-october-150015452.html

Existing home sales fall for 9th straight month in October

Booger says

Booger, here in Silly Con Valley, I know someone just like that.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-time-greedy-home-flippers-110000999.html

Not the time to get greedy': Home flippers getting burned by the US housing downturn are now slashing prices to cut losses — here are the 2 big reasons

Buying houses is the bestest investment that never was, cause everyone knows real state never, ever goes down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/z050bx/probably_lost_750k_in_equity_this_year_on_real/

Probably lost $750k in equity this year on real estate investments. How about you?

Why are rents going down? I would think rentals would have more customers as less people are able to buy.

Booger says

Booger, where is this?

https://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/?m=1

HeadSet says

Why are rents going down?

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-rents-fall-keep-going-down-housing-outlook-2022-10

DD214 says

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

Yes, but why is there less rental demand?

Booger says

My daughter is driving to Homestead it's about an hour drive for her, sometimes over an hour and a half. It's her first IT gig, so she's having fun. I told her not to take the first opportunity that came her way. The guy she's working for runs the IT for a huge Construction Company and their legal team. He sounds a lot like the type of gigs I always liked. The sole IT department from development to server administration to back office support. He brought her on to help with some of the burden, she's just fresh out of college..
Told her the biggest reason that she got the job, because she wasn't full of herself in the interview, going on about how She's going to take over the world with Kubernetes and Panda, like all of the other smug candidates, fresh out of college.

HeadSet says

why is there less rental demand?

Some possible answers here: https://therealdeal.com/2022/10/05/recession-fears-curb-rental-demand-in-us/

HeadSet says

DD214 says

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

Yes, but why is there less rental demand?

Because I invested in multifamily for the economy of scale. SFH doesn't have an economy of scale. Multifamily the rent is cheapest as opposed to SFH rent because of the economy of scale.

In Austin's MSA, for example, a person can rent a 1 bedroom/1 bath place for about $1,000 a month that would cost $200,000, whereas to buy the same place as a condo would be $280,000 or so. Lastly, a lot of evictions have been done and the 'free money' from the Fed has stopped, so prices have to go down a bit.

More insights here:

As the next 5 years evolve, we’ll likely see rent prices fall gradually. For 2023, higher interest rates and mortgage rates, and higher unemployment are expected thus reducing the wealth of funds renters have to spend on rent.

Yet, renters are desperate and some cities will see big rent prices. With the push to bring corporate workers back from remote work to the office, New York, San Francisco, San Diego, Chicago, Boston and other major metros are seeing strong rent prices this fall.

https://managecasa.com/articles/us-rental-property-market/

Rent prices begin course-correcting:

This month’s report reveals significant price drops throughout much of the country. National one-bedroom median rent is down 0.8% over last month, to $1,491 and the two-bedroom median is down 0.7% to $1,832. More than half the cities on our list posted month-over-month declines and 19 cities remained flat, leaving just 20% of Zumper’s top 100 list with month-over-month increases. This slowdown is showing up in our year-over-year figures, too: After 12 straight months of double-digit year-over-year jumps, the national median is up a slightly more reasonable 9.2% over October of last year.

https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/

HeadSet says

Yes, but why is there less rental demand?

Quiet quitting and actual quitting. "Kids" are moving back home.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/education/college-crisis/boomerang-kids-adults-moving-back-parents/

(NewsNation) — Many Americans have hit a brick wall post-graduation, struggling to find jobs, even with a college degree; while others are struggling financially due to student loan debt and looking for affordable rent. This has led to an increase in “boomerang kids” moving back home with their parents.

“It’s called a ‘boomerang kid’ — that’s someone who leaves home and then comes back,” Stacy Kaiser, a psychotherapist, explained. “I am seeing more of that than ever before.”

The start of the pandemic triggered a massive wave of boomerang kids returning home, and now an estimated 67% of that group are still at home.

HeadSet says

DD214 says

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

Yes, but why is there less rental demand?

DD214 says

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Mark Zuckerberg said today "he was wrong" as far as managing Meta's finances and announced layoffs of 13% of its workforce.

Meta's H-1B layoffs challenge visa holders and U.S. workers

[Laid-off H-1B workers have] virtually no bargaining power with prospective employers. And [they] will make huge sacrifices just to stay in the country legally.
Ron Hira - Associate professor of political science, Howard University

https://www.techtarget.com/searchhrsoftware/news/252527158/Metas-H-1B-layoffs-challenge-visa-holders-and-US-workers

Onvacation says

Quiet quitting and actual quitting. "Kids" are moving back home.

My experience with the last 2 recessions in the bay area were that perhaps but also that people moved away to cheaper places AND people took on more roommates.

I bet the kids moving back home is a larger phenom than I can imagine this time though.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Meta's H-1B layoffs challenge visa holders and U.S. workers

[Laid-off H-1B workers have] virtually no bargaining power with prospective employers. And [they] will make huge sacrifices just to stay in the country legally.
Ron Hira - Associate professor of political science, Howard University

Meta is laying off the useless purple hairs who don't code or offer any direct value to the bottomline. Its not laying off H1-B visas which most likely are software engineers and coders.

Look at that recent photo of Elon Musk with Twitter employees; that looks like a H1B promotional photo by the US Chamber of Commerce.

,

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Its not laying off H1-B visas which most likely are software engineers and coders.

Really?

You know this?

Do you have boots on the ground at Meta?

Besides, regardless of whom they lay off, a large cohort of H1-s leaving the country (Bay Area) is a large cohort of renters who won't any longer be paying the high rents in the Bay Area. I could take you through neighborhoods of beautiful, pricey massive rental apartment complexes SJ that are expat communities of India. Walked through them many times on my cardio strolls around the city. You'll stand out as the haolie, bro.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Really?

You know this?

Do you have boots on the ground at Meta?

H1B for tech and engineering companies are from the STEM fields, because they are the hardest to fill. I worked for an Architecture&Engineering (A&E) firm and they had a few positions that were H1B and they were all engineering.

The purple hairs and deadweights are the ones running the Woke policies departments, like that smug and pretentious fake whistleblower from Meta who testified before Congress.

I'm not haolie, boy. My family is from Colombia.

.