patrick.net

Bitcoiner says

About 10% of stock traders don’t lose money. Only about 90% do.

What would happen if someone would trade RE like stocks? I bet the picture would be even more lopsided, given the MUCH higher friction for both holding and buying/selling.

Bitcoiner says

you can’t just have a brain fart and sell RE in error or while drunk. Unless you are an alcoholic and drunk for 30+ days.

No different from stocks in this regard.

Bitcoiner says

RE is good for Americans (who are - in general - lousy savers) to build equity over the long run.

Sure, in your primary residence (and even then with caveats). But once we're entering investment side one must ask himself if he's not overexposed to it.

Bitcoiner says

“ I am a bit surprised though, to see that rate hikes haven't hurt prices much”

Lol, you and all RE bears as well.

RE prices are a function of supply and demand.

This is why you're looked at as kind of a dope. You ignored my last 2 sentences.

Bitcoiner says

You may have misunderstood what I said. My point is you CANNOT time markets. Doesn’t matter if it’s RE or stocks.

Except you only pointed out stocks. LOL

Eric Holder says

Bitcoiner says

About 10% of stock traders don’t lose money. Only about 90% do.

What would happen if someone would trade RE like stocks? I bet the picture would be even more lopsided, given the MUCH higher friction for both holding and buying/selling.

They do. REIT's. Tax advantaged too. Easiest way to get into real estate and do absolutely nothing. Just have to pick the right one.

I'm in the tax advantage account phase and letting that compound for 25 years, well 40 years by the end. Crash aside, on pace for $10M in non-pension or SS retirement money and a paid off house. Once the pension kicks in and SS for the wife and I we could easily live with $150k/yr or more with minimal expenses until 100.

You can undoubtedly make great low tax income in real estate, but even with a PM it's still too active for me. I like jobs where I don't deal with people. Invest in hands off accounts, check it once a year and smile. REIT's have to pay dividends on profits back to shareholders and you get potential appreciation. I'm waiting for a downturn to find some good funds and load the fuck up.

Might buy RE again, but I'm not there yet and it won't be residential most likely. Every path is different. If I had the motivation I could slay real estate. I don't have that passion anymore. I really don't like humanity outside of a select few people. I really don't want to deal with them in business.

WookieMan says

Eric Holder says

Bitcoiner says

About 10% of stock traders don’t lose money. Only about 90% do.

What would happen if someone would trade RE like stocks? I bet the picture would be even more lopsided, given the MUCH higher friction for both holding and buying/selling.

They do. REIT's. Tax advantaged too. Easiest way to get into real estate and do absolutely nothing. Just have to pick the right one.

Right. But these are technically still stocks and prone to all the same supposed dangers of "drunken trading". =))

Bitcoiner says

Eric Holder says

WookieMan says

Eric Holder says

Bitcoiner says

About 10% of stock traders don’t lose money. Only about 90% do.

What would happen if someone would trade RE like stocks? I bet the picture would be even more lopsided, given the MUCH higher friction for both holding and buying/selling.

They do. REIT's. Tax advantaged too. Easiest way to get into real estate and do absolutely nothing. Just have to pick the right one.

Right. But these are technically still stocks and prone to all the same supposed dangers of "drunken trading". =))

Yep 👍 plus the danger of selling due to emotional issues (panic, euphoria, lack of following an investment plan or lack of a plan).

Again, this is the same kind of crowd who "needs that refund" because otherwise they'd impulse-spend every last cent. Frankly, I can't relate to either.

WookieMan says

They do. REIT's. Tax advantaged too. Easiest way to get into real estate and do absolutely nothing.

Just to be clear, REITs work well in retirement accounts (IRA, 401k, Roth).
Generally speaking, the bulk of the dividend is income passed along from the company's real estate business and is therefore treated as ordinary income to the investor. This part of the dividend is taxed according to the investor's marginal tax rate.
Note that there is currently some preferential treatment for pass through income from REITs:
The portion of the REIT dividend that is attributable to income may receive further preferential tax treatment under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The act gives a new 20% deduction for pass-through business income, which includes qualified REIT dividends. The deduction expires at the end of 2025.

EBGuy says

Just to be clear, REITs work well in retirement accounts (IRA, 401k, Roth).

Maybe. But not the Vanguard REIT.

In a retirement account only the total return matters and the total return of the REIT way lagged the equity index funds. That's why I exchanged out of it.

Bitcoiner says

Do you usually walk the property with a contractor to estimate the rehab costs?

if you have no clue on residential building construction and property management, then you better bring a licensed contractor who does ... if not, then you rolling the dice, boy ....

and that is not just doing mold testing with kits from home depot... its comprehensive from radon testing in basement, to fiber optic video inspection of septic system, to going up to attic to check hurricane clips or straps, etc....

even if you think you can jew them down on price, it may not be that worthwhile an investment as far as cap rate and roi ....

....

B.A.C.A.H. says

Maybe. But not the Vanguard REIT.

In a retirement account only the total return matters and the total return of the REIT way lagged the equity index funds. That's why I exchanged out of it.

You could get ticker VTI (vanguard total stock market index ETF) and then sell monthly calls out of the money, and roll up te calls if needed. That is extra dividend money.

ad says

You could get ticker VTI (vanguard total stock market index ETF) and then sell monthly calls out of the money, and roll up te calls if needed. That is extra dividend money.

I just swapped it for the VTI mutual fund. Income from dividends versus share price appreciation, it's all the same to the balance sheet of the retirement accounts.

I have a friend who does those options trading. He lives on the profit from it. He told me that the reason I don't use his methods is because me and others like me are stupid and lazy. OK, if you say so: stupid and lazy.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I just swapped it for the VTI mutual fund. Income from dividends versus share price appreciation, it's all the same to the balance sheet of the retirement accounts.

I have a friend who does those options trading. He lives on the profit from it. He told me that the reason I don't use his methods is because me and others like me are stupid and lazy. OK, if you say so: stupid and lazy.

its not hard, boy

just set up level 0 trading account for options since you are not trading on margin or are leverage

i first learned about options with investopedia and then with blue collar investor website, which is run by a very wall street-savvy former dentist ...the dude is uber smart and i'm thankful to him ...

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Bitcoiner says

If you are committed to something you’ll find a way to get it done. If you not committed, you will find excuses. People don’t become millionaires by accident (usually).

Wouldn’t you always have a good inspector check those items (foundation, plumbing, sewer cam, roof, hvac, etc.)?
I am thinking about buying the ugliest dog in a good hood and upgrading bathrooms, kitchen, paint, new garage door, etc. maybe adding sqft

Well I worked as a facilities manager and engineer so a lot I can do on my own, besides being a professional engineer (PE).

But yeah, you want to be able to go in and get enough info on the condition of the house from sink holes below slab to the roof ridge not venting probably.

Yeah, I understand as you want to buy in "good hood" which mean good public school and Asian tiger moms on the PTA. I got it, boy.

Or why not buy in a hood that may get gentrified eventually by soy boys and white liberal doucebags ? or would that take too long to pay off as far as ROI and/or cap rate ?

.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DaveRamsey/comments/1469e0t/getting_majorly_impacted_by_return_to_the_office/

Getting majorly impacted by return to the office

Yuma housing market is well past peak. Checking around today, I see a number of rentals that have dropped prices in the past few weeks. In fact, one who was only trying to collect $100 more than last year has lowered his rent to $100 less than what he got in 2022. In an extreme example, a guy from Somerton was trying to sell his house since last year. After starting over $300k, he eventually settled around $284k before pulling the listing and attempting to rent instead. After not finding a renter for 45 days, he's dropped his rent as well. In another example, a pretty nice looking property that started WAY above market($2,800), has now dropped to $2,400 and still without a renter.

Market declines happen first in the most over-priced, or furthest out regions, eventually working their way through the entire market. You may want to locking your tenants in now before prices start dropping next year in your area, and they move elsewhere.

NuttBoxer says

Market declines happen first in the most over-priced, or furthest out regions, eventually working their way through the entire market. You may want to locking your tenants in now before prices start dropping next year in your area, and they move elsewhere.

Over priced is the key here. We have two gas stations, one in a neighboring town that do Uhaul rentals. They're piling up. Meaning people are moving my way. There are zero homes that I could find for rent in my town on any website. Zilch. 820 homes/units.

I'm gonna pull the former Realtor card. It's location. I never look at rentals and was honestly shocked just now that there's literally nothing I can find in my town. I drive/walk all the blocks and know damn near everyone. There's nothing. No for rent signs outside of the commercial downtown area. There's only 2 active listings for sale. Normal market here is 7-10 roughly active. They're building new homes finally.

That's why my view is probably jaded to some of you. I'm not witnessing at all what some of you guys are. Our exodus happened. My area is seeing an influx, which blows my mind for IL. I think it's city folks leaving and even suburban. I drove through areas this morning I haven't been to in 10 years. They're shit holes. I'd never raise my kids there. These are suburbs too, not Chicago. Life sucks in urban environments. Humans aren't supposed to live on top of each other.

NuttBoxer says

Yuma housing market is well past peak.

Will this be a factor there also ? See below article.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/us/arizona-phoenix-groundwater-limits-development-climate/index.html

I guess they'll not cave into the developers like Bay County, FL does to St Joe.

But if water prices go up, then that will put strain on housing prices just like increasing property insurance and HOA fees do.

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Bitcoiner says

Interesting. What are the best areas to live in Yuma? What is the Scottsdale of Yuma. Is it somerton?
Median household incomes seem a bit low in Yuma. Are there good employers out there providing high paying jobs?

Still not familiar enough to say for sure, but Foothills is the newer area of town, although Old Yuma(as locals seem to call it) has some nice housing developments as well. Really no idea on Somerton.

Yes, large percentage of the population is migratory, and only works during the winter. Creates misleading unemployment numbers, and possibly lower than normal income numbers. But my wife has been following some groups, and I think income is fairly spot on. A lot of people in Yuma do seem to struggle, although that's becoming more common everywhere.

Biggest employers are military, farms, government. Yuma is right next to the Colorado, so I would think water isn't a huge issue, although Phoenix also has some large rivers that flow right through town. I will tell you if looking at an overhead satellite view it's VERY common to see nothing but sand. Housing seems to have outpaced satellite photos by quite a bit. But given how remote it is, lack of local jobs, and summer temps, I don't see over-crowding ever being a problem.

Also, majority of landscaping consists of desert plants, sand and rocks. People like us who want grass for our kids are a strange breed.

Pretium Partners is the 2nd largest owner of single family owners (Invitation Homes is first).

Pretium recently bought 4000 homes (some unfinished) from D R Horton.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/pretium-partners-to-acquire-4000-d-r-horton-rental-homes-in-1-5b-deal/

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Bitcoiner says

Nuttboxer, thanks. Never been to Yuma. Planning any trips to cross the border or not really a reason to do that? Btw., are you working remote or did you find a new job in Yuma?

Meaning Mexico? Certainly we'll travel down there at some point, mainly to see if any of the stuff my wife goes to Tijuana for we can do over there.

I've been remote Since 2020. Current company is East Coast, so have to wake up a bit early sometimes, but I've been assured by my boss I will never be asked to travel to corporate.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bosses-fed-remote-4-main-193500794.html

Bosses are fed up with remote work for 4 main reasons

Software Testing

Another great example of the greed an insanity that gripped housing in this current bubble. House in Julian Borrego Springs listed for over $600k a year ago. Finally sold a year later for nearly $150k UNDER original asking price. Now listed for rent for $3,900. Still vacant. No one from here would ever pay that much to live in Julian...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1831-Hunter-Dr-Borrego-Springs-CA-92004/16645537_zpid/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-detached-fundamentals-leading-122712553.html

The housing market is so detached from fundamentals that a leading research firm predicts the pause in home price declines is about to ‘prove temporary’

NuttBoxer says

Another great example of the greed an insanity that gripped housing in this current bubble. House in Julian listed for over $600k a year ago. Finally sold a year later for nearly $150k UNDER original asking price. Now listed for rent for $3,900. Still vacant. No one from here would ever pay that much to live in Julian...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1831-Hunter-Dr-Borrego-Springs-CA-92004/16645537_zpid/

That's not even Julian - it's almost Salton City, lol.

Inventory

Will

Be

Constrained

Forever

GNL says

Forever

So you are saying that the supply of housing for long term rentals and sales is not going to keep up with demand ?

Why ? Because too much speculation and people converting them to Air BnB vacation/short term rentals ? Because of zoning laws like in California ?

You need to come to Florida panhandle like Bay County and Panama City Beach. Any patch of soil or vegetation is getting converted to concrete and asphalt.

.

ad says

So you are saying that the supply of housing for long term rentals and sales is not going to keep up with demand ?

Why ? Because too much speculation and people converting them to Air BnB vacation/short term rentals ? Because of zoning laws like in California ?

You need to come to Florida panhandle like Bay County and Panama City Beach. Any patch of soil or vegetation is getting converted to concrete and asphalt.

We lost a generation of tradesmen from the housing bust. Talk to any electrician or plumber. They could work for 90 hours and not keep up OR hire enough people to deal with demand. We slammed on the brakes during the housing bust in almost every market building. Investors came in and sucked the inventory up and rented it out. Building stopped so no new young men entered the housing construction/trades.

Might be a touch different locally, but this was one of the few times it went national. We don't have people that can do framing, concrete, electric and plumbing. No one knows how to do it outside of a select few. Where building is happening they move to that area and there's nothing in areas where there's no building. It will take another decade and maybe two for it to level out in most areas.

ad says

GNL says

Forever

So you are saying that the supply of housing for long term rentals and sales is not going to keep up with demand ?

Why ? Because too much speculation and people converting them to Air BnB vacation/short term rentals ? Because of zoning laws like in California ?

You need to come to Florida panhandle like Bay County and Panama City Beach. Any patch of soil or vegetation is getting converted to concrete and asphalt.

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All of those reasons and more. The best bet is to hope Deagal is correct. Also that the jabs are fatal and people start dying in the 10's of millions.

Eric Holder says

That's not even Julian - it's almost Salton City, lol.

Apologies, yeah, that's out in the desert east of Julian. Fixed.

WookieMan says

Building stopped so no new young men entered the housing construction/trades.

that is what i was relaying to Senor Headset as far as the USA becoming more third world, as in lazy and incompetent

that means very high price inflation to provide the quality of life that we took for granted

we continuously lose capacity and capability to provide goods and services... it just drives up the prices as supply dwindles relative to demand...

or we just lower our expectations and our standard of living degrades or goes downhill also because its too expensive to try to maintain the same quality of life

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Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

Misc says

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

that is not a reasonable solution for an existing working age labor force of citizens who are lazy and/or dumb

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Bitcoiner says

Who is deagal and what is he saying?
Also, you hope for people to die for inventory to rise?!

From Rumble: "Deagel Corporation issue a forecast for the American population of 2025 back in 2014. It held such a drastic reduction, along with other western countries, that it was shocking to the many who saw it. We'll take a look and see how the numbers are adding up, along with and update on deaths that certainly appear to be from the COVID shots, as well as a warning against the 5G rollout which appears to be a kill switch."

If people die off, then that means less demand for housing. Also, the homes they live in either go for sale or are rented, so as to increase supply.

It creates a demographics bomb, as then there is a glut of residential real estate.

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