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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   401,602 views  4,455 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4283   GNL   2024 Feb 8, 11:20am  

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.




Some of those maffs look hard. How did she make 1,000,000 if she has to split it?
4284   Eman   2024 Feb 8, 2:24pm  

GNL says

Eman says


I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.




Some of those maffs look hard. How did she make 1,000,000 if she has to split it?

It’s just my guess how she started this journey. She could be using her own money now, or then. She used to be a hitech employee who turned RE flipper and has done well.

I used to meet her at local meetups years ago. A buddy of mine is in her network and follows her work. She seems to have found a reliable contractor to work with, and she knows what buyers like to rehab the flip and get too dollars.
4285   richwicks   2024 Feb 8, 2:43pm  

AD says

Facebook (or Meta) may do very well but overall the jobs market for that area may be barely satisfactory.


Facebook isn't high tech. A monkey can do censorship and maintain the databases. The worth of that company is their ability to control "the narrative", for propaganda purposes. People are starting to figure out "hey, Facebook promotes propaganda, and censors actual communication and knowledge".

It took fucking long enough, but people are figuring it out. You can complain about TikTok all you wish with it's stream of stupidity that's on that platform, but the reason it has done so well, is that it WASN'T censored for a long time. Telegram does quite well because it's hardly censored. Substack exists because of censorship, same with Rumble. None of these are in Silly Con Valley.
4286   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 8, 5:36pm  

WookieMan says


AD says

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

Look up Uhaul rates. For real. That's how you can judge housing prices. If it's more expensive to leave than coming in, do the math. Your home prices are going down 100% of the time. Not even a debate.

Friends,

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in. They don't haul their sh*t across the pond in uhauls. They overpay for overpriced homes with overly high assessments to the homies who rent the uhauls to relocate to cheaper places. This is why we've had skewed uhaul for a long time here.

Compared to the concrete canyons of Asia they came from, our small sh*tboxes on postage stamp sized lots, and new canyons of condos in the Sunnyvale and Fremont corridors, are like the Wide Open Prairie, at Bargain Prices.
4287   AD   2024 Feb 8, 7:31pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in.


You mean like H-1b visa workers ?

.
4288   WookieMan   2024 Feb 9, 2:08am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in. They don't haul their sh*t across the pond in uhauls. They overpay for overpriced homes with overly high assessments to the homies who rent the uhauls to relocate to cheaper places. This is why we've had skewed uhaul for a long time here.

So it turns into an Asian ghetto? My neighborhood in Chicago was next door to China Town. it was ghetto. I have no issue with any ethnicity, but I'll point out the flaws. These Asians may come in and buy, but whites will move out.

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods. CA is a different animal being on the West Coast. The whites are fleeing. You guys are going to have a mix of oriental and homeless at some point. Enjoy. The homeless don't pay taxes. The rich orientals might not either if they come from money. The CA situation is not sustainable.
4289   GNL   2024 Feb 9, 4:04am  

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally.

Very true, if we are allowed to. The government does everything it can to prevent it though.
4290   gabbar   2024 Feb 9, 7:31am  

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods.

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?
4291   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 9, 7:56am  

WookieMan says


The whites are fleeing.

My reference was not to the whole state, just the Bay Area.

Probably the biggest one-way uhaul rental destination from Bay Area is the Sierra Foothills.

And it's not just the whites. Locals of color who were born and raised in the region are fleeing too. Many of those non-whites were my homies. Mostly all replaced / displaced by Asian immigrants who either bring money bags with them, or, as I said, act like over-paying here is a Bargain for what they see as uncongested, Wide Open Prairie spaces here.
4292   AD   2024 Feb 9, 8:59am  

B.A.C.A.H. says


Mostly all replaced / displaced by Asian immigrants who either bring money bags with them


Approximately what percentage of these are H1-b visa workers ?

What percentage are Indian of these "Asian immigrants" are Indian ? What percentage are Chinese ?

I would think if they are buying over priced housing in Silicon Valley that it is because they are tech workers. They could easily buy a lot cheaper housing somewhere else in the USA that is just as nice.

.
4293   AD   2024 Feb 9, 9:09am  

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?


Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

.
4294   GNL   2024 Feb 9, 10:01am  

AD says


gabbar says


I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?


Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)


Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way. I'm pretty sure your skin will be your uniform....if it were to get bad enough.
4295   AD   2024 Feb 9, 12:31pm  

GNL says

AD says

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way. I'm pretty sure your skin will be your uniform....if it were to get bad enough.


So what's your point ? I've known this for at least 30 years as far as tribalism in certain cultures, etc.

I saw it as in right in my face in engineering grad school at UM Ann Arbor. The Chinese national students would stick together and cheat together.

Whereas the American students would be over competitive (and sometimes adversarial) with each other, the Chinese nationals stuck together and worked together.

I know the American students who tended to be the most smug, combative and competitive were left wing authoritarian and Democrat types.

The ones who were were more collaborative tended to be libertarian thinking type, like the homesteading mindset you would find in the northern part of the state. These were my people.

.
4296   WookieMan   2024 Feb 9, 2:00pm  

gabbar says

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods.

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Tribalism to an extent. Education and your social culture are biggies. My nephew will mostly be friends with white people living in a rural farm town. He'll be the token black as is joked about. He's just a kid though. My eyes have been opened around race big time over the last 5 years.

Family, family, family oh and did I say family. I have my faults but my nephew would have been in a gang already by 12. Even if his mom could function he doesn't want to live with her. So we have 6 more years. He's black and we get side eye all the time and have issues with customs anytime we leave the country. We talk to him about this directly and he's aware he's different in the sense he's a black kid with a white family.

I guess what I'm saying is race doesn't matter. I don't want to live in a black culture. I don't want to live in an Asian culture. I like both of their cooking though and rarely have had issues with other culture... My nephew is being brought up in white culture. His skin is black. Who the fuck cares? I'm not going to South Shore of Chicago to raise my family. That's bad black. Segregation is a thing and I believe it should be.

If anyone thinks we're a melting pot, you lost your damn mind. We are segregated cultures. Skin color doesn't matter. A black lives with me and it doesn't move the needle. He's white culturally if you want my honest opinion. I give no shits what he looks like.
4297   Eman   2024 Feb 9, 3:52pm  

AD says

gabbar says


I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?


Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

.

Let me share my perspectives as an immigrant. We flock together as most of us came to this country, or any country, without speaking the native language, or knowing very limited language. It helps from a communication POV. Like any race or culture, we have low-, middle- and upper-class groups. Most, if not all, of us started at the bottom with the exception of a few like some international students, who came from wealthy families.

As we work our way up the society, we see things we didn’t see before. We view life differently. The term fortress, aka affluent neighborhoods, tends to have better schools and less bad influences. If anyone of us happens to make it, we’ll try to pull as many of us there as possible. If not possible, we’ll have the nieces and nephews reside with us so they can attend better schools and have a lesser chance of encountering bad influence.

When we’re poor, we bond together. As we come up, we also like to bond together. We’re a nuclear family.

I have heard of the competitiveness in some cultures, but I don’t see it in mine, or my and my wife’s sides of the family. We always do things together. We travel in big groups.

I love my friends. Some of them are extremely well off, but we’re all equal when we hangout. The ironic thing is that they all think they’re middle class. Tell me how many middle class people live in $4.5-$5.5M homes? 😅
4298   Eman   2024 Feb 9, 3:58pm  

Communication and behaviors also vary from culture to culture. The way people act, express, gesture, etc… When we hear Chinese folks talk, it seems like they’re arguing to us, but that’s how they communicate.

I’ve heard others said Bay Area people are rude. When I traveled to Portland, OR and Vancouver, Canada, I immediately noticed how nice those folks were.
4299   AD   2024 Feb 9, 4:21pm  

Eman says


I love my friends. Some of them are extremely well off, but we’re all equal when we hangout. The ironic thing is that they all think they’re middle class. Tell me how many middle class people live in $4.5-$5.5M homes?


yeah all your crazy rich asian friends

and thanks for another one of your from-rags-to-riches-asian-immigrant story :-/

.

.
4300   Eman   2024 Feb 9, 4:28pm  

AD says

Eman says



I love my friends. Some of them are extremely well off, but we’re all equal when we hangout. The ironic thing is that they all think they’re middle class. Tell me how many middle class people live in $4.5-$5.5M homes?


yeah all your crazy rich asian friends

and thanks for another one of your from-rags-to-riches-asian-immigrant story :-/

.

.

Sometimes, you have to take that leap of faith and chase that dream. It has paid off for a bunch of my friends. Four of them are Indians so they speak English when they came to this country during their college years. Some were born here. Some didn’t speak the language, and still speak broken English. However, they all bought their houses when they were a few hundred thousands in the 80’s and 90’s. Who would have thought these houses would worth millions now?
4301   AD   2024 Feb 9, 4:47pm  

GNL says

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way.


Please elaborate more as far as TSHTF and how people will behave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Luther_Pierce#The_Turner_Diaries

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4302   WookieMan   2024 Feb 9, 6:19pm  

Eman says

Communication and behaviors also vary from culture to culture. The way people act, express, gesture, etc… When we hear Chinese folks talk, it seems like they’re arguing to us, but that’s how they communicate.

I’ve heard others said Bay Area people are rude. When I traveled to Portland, OR and Vancouver, Canada, I immediately noticed how nice those folks were.

I've asked before. Do you get off the west coast? If not you don't know the country. Go to @AD land in the panhandle and it's absolutely different in a good way. Come to my town in IL or anywhere in Wisconsin. I'll be blunt. The West Coast is absolute trash, 90% of it. I don't care about the wealth. High cost of living makes you poor.

My family makes the same or more than we would in CA with less taxes. Leave CA. Get over weather. It's 2-3 months a year. Grow up. You'll be much happier and actually rich. You're house and income poor in CA. That goes for all the CA peeps here.

Portland and Vancouver are shit holes of morons. Travel east of the Mississippi where most of the country lives. Stay for a month. I get along with everyone, but I'm yet to meet a Californian that I'd call a friend. This is how the rest of the country looks at you cats if I'm being honest. You guys like the climate and don't do shit. Sorry for the aggressiveness, but this has been building up for a month. You guys need to get the fuck out of CA and experience who is voting for your leaders and stop speaking from a bully pulpit. CA is not remotely the country.
4303   GNL   2024 Feb 9, 6:25pm  

AD says

GNL says


Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way.


Please elaborate more as far as TSHTF and how people will behave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Luther_Pierce#The_Turner_Diaries

.

It's just my belief that if society turned into a kill or be killed chaos, people would go with base instincts. I know I would. And it's not because I hate other races. No, it's because I know there are people who hate other races and that can hurt any group.
4304   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 10, 8:52am  

WookieMan says


Do you get off the west coast? If not you don't know the country.

Yes.

It is hilarious to hear the Asian immigrants who've never left the Left Coast urban areas to experience our country, except for brief times within the protective bubble of a "vacation", or within a bubble of an elite graduate school program (like AD cited, Michigan), "explain it all" about what our country is like, about "life in the US", etc.

Mostly they do this in their languages that I don't understand, but not so for the Indians who speak English like it's their mother tongue (for many, English is their first language).

The Left Coast, and especially the Bay Area, has more in common with Hong Kong or London than with our country. They're clueless.

It is hilarious.

WookieMan says


Leave CA.


Most of my homies have left to escape the sh*t you describe, replaced by immigrants from Asia and from across the Southern Border.. Why haven't I? Well, we have lots of family here. We accept the shtty compromises to be close to our loved ones. But we choose to do this knowing we can leave if things get intolerable for us. I've spent lots of time in Flyover Country, got lots of cousins all over. I'd be as comfortable in Flyover Country, as here in the Bay Area..
4305   Eman   2024 Feb 10, 11:05am  

Saw this on X and thought of this thread.


4306   HeadSet   2024 Feb 10, 12:32pm  

Eman says

Saw this on X and thought of this thread.




And 3 generations later, poor again.
4308   GNL   2024 Feb 10, 12:53pm  

HeadSet says


Eman says


Saw this on X and thought of this thread.




And 3 generations later, poor again.


Your comment hits a little close to home for me.

My son inlaw is 3rd generation from the founder of his family's family owned REIT. His grandfather built quite a nice RE empire. They own many apartment complexes in multiple states, much property on an American Island (I won't say which one but it is on par with Martha's Vinyard), some hotels and commercial property. The grandfather had 4+ children. All of them had kids and now some of the kids (my son inlaw) are starting to have kids. Almost all of them are living off of the Founder's efforts. My grandchildren (who are pre 10 year olds) already own shares of the family REIT. I told my wife the next 20 years will be quite interesting since the Matriarch is still alive and, I assume, holds most of the weath. When she dies, I'm assuming there will be an avalanche of $$ coming. No, I do not know how their wealth is structured so, who knows, but I do believe, the way they are all living, that the $$ will eventually run out.
4309   just_passing_through   2024 Feb 10, 12:53pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says


But we choose to do this knowing we can leave if things get intolerable for us.


Doit before exit taxes reach your level if they haven't already. Or just give em the finger like my dad did in the early 80s. When I was a kid in CA we had TX license plates because military can claim whatever residence they want (or something like that) and CA was already effed up back then (just not nearly so bad).

CA claimed that because he was stationed in CA before he retired in TX that they were owed part of his military retirement in taxes in perpetuity, "because he earned it while living in CA".

He told them to eat shit basically.
4310   Eman   2024 Feb 10, 1:01pm  

HeadSet says

Eman says


Saw this on X and thought of this thread.




And 3 generations later, poor again.

Happy to see someone knows this. There’s an old proverb that states “wealth doesn’t last past 3 generations”, and there’s a good reason for it. 😅

There are exceptions of course. Looking at Trump’s family, I believe wealth should last more than 3 generations for them: Fred Trump, Donald, Ivanka, and their kids……Good for them.
4311   AD   2024 Feb 10, 5:06pm  

Eman says


Happy to see someone knows this. There’s an old proverb that states “wealth doesn’t last past 3 generations”, and there’s a good reason for it. 😅

There are exceptions of course. Looking at Trump’s family, I believe wealth should last more than 3 generations for them: Fred Trump, Donald, Ivanka, and their kids……Good for them.

.

Eman's reading assignment: https://joelkotkin.com/are-asians-the-new-jews/

Coming from you Senor Eman, that does not surprise me as far as you prophesying about preserving wealth from one generation to another.

If anything set up a trust managed by a lawyer (who is at least one-half honest) such as have the family assets in a 50% index funds / 50% bonds fund (easier than owning rental properties) in case the kids are a bunch of idiots who would piss the inheritance money away.
.
4312   GNL   2024 Feb 10, 5:13pm  

AD says

in case the kids are a bunch of idiots who would piss the inheritance money away.

Endless stories of exactly this happening.
4313   HeadSet   2024 Feb 10, 6:04pm  

Eman says

There’s an old proverb that states “wealth doesn’t last past 3 generations”,

Yep, "Shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves is 3 generations." Grampa builds the business from nothing, kids live well on the profits, grandkids blow the rest supporting a lifestyle.
4314   Eman   2024 Feb 10, 6:25pm  

HeadSet says

Eman says


There’s an old proverb that states “wealth doesn’t last past 3 generations”,

Yep, "Shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves is 3 generations." Grampa builds the business from nothing, kids live well on the profits, grandkids blow the rest supporting a lifestyle.

Did this happen to the Trump family? It’s all about the work ethic.

I have a friend who is very well off. His dad was a founder of a few startup companies, which got bought out by big names. I saw a bunch of achievement awards when I was at his/his dad’s former office. He lives in a very affluent town where the median home price is $3.5M. He still runs a couple semiconductor companies, which I believe, were passed down to him. Both he and his wife are well educated. They’re pushing their kids hard in schools too…Tiger parents if you will. Our common ground is real estate investments. He owns office buildings where his companies operate too. I have a feeling they have a higher chance of lasting more than 3 generations.

In this country, there are instruments that can make the wealth last for a very long time as @AD alluded above for people with really deep pockets. Previous generations didn’t have this instrument so 3 generations seem about right.
4315   HeadSet   2024 Feb 10, 6:33pm  

Eman says

Did this happen to the Trump family? It’s all about the work ethic.

Of course. Nobody said the 3 generations is applicable 100% of the time. It does not apply to Rockefeller levels of wealth nor to those, as you say, acquired a work ethic from the patriarch. It does happen often enough to become a proverb.
4316   AD   2024 Feb 10, 7:38pm  

Eman says

In this country, there are instruments that can make the wealth last for a very long time as AD alluded above for people with really deep pockets. Previous generations didn’t have this instrument so 3 generations seem about right.


Yes Mister Eman as its all about cash flow as well as balance sheet (net equity or assets minus liabilities). Its about the spoiled kids not pissing away the inheritance money and being careful as far as their spending and lifestyle choices.

Previous generations had land and real estate which they could rent out to sharecroppers, for events like weddings, etc.

And by the way in case this was missed before, here is your reading assignment Eman: https://joelkotkin.com/are-asians-the-new-jews/

.
4317   AD   2024 Feb 10, 7:46pm  

Eman says

Both he and his wife are well educated. They’re pushing their kids hard in schools too…Tiger parents if you will. Our common ground is real estate investments.


Tiger parents is dog whistle or code word for Asian parents like Tiger Mom ... which is synonymous with an over ambitious and controlling mom
.



.
4318   GNL   2024 Feb 10, 9:09pm  

HeadSet says


Eman says


There’s an old proverb that states “wealth doesn’t last past 3 generations”,

Yep, "Shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves is 3 generations." Grampa builds the business from nothing, kids live well on the profits, grandkids blow the rest supporting a lifestyle.


Yep, my son inlaw's grandfather worked his ass off and actually died in his office. He raised his family in one of the apartment complexes for a number of years even. Yes, the apartament was on a top floor and was combined with another apartment but he never owned a Ferrari or mansions.
4319   Blue   2024 Feb 10, 9:35pm  

AD says

And by the way in case this was missed before, here is your reading assignment Eman: https://joelkotkin.com/are-asians-the-new-jews/

I agree with his assessments. I remember reading an article when Trump was contesting few years back that 85% of Indian descends born in US who know nothing about India aligned with salve owning/craving Dems!! I think this number can not be much different for other Asian groups. All of them are highly "educated"!
4320   Eman   2024 Feb 11, 11:29am  

Blue says

AD says


And by the way in case this was missed before, here is your reading assignment Eman: https://joelkotkin.com/are-asians-the-new-jews/

I agree with his assessments. I remember reading an article when Trump was contesting few years back that 85% of Indian descends born in US who know nothing about India aligned with salve owning/craving Dems!! I think this number can not be much different for other Asian groups. All of them are highly "educated"!

Vietnamese are predominately Republican leaning. My dad’s and my generation X come from military family. Maybe the millennial and Gen Z are being brainwashed into believing the 💩. However, aren’t they the ones who claim nothing is affordable for their generations? Well, their votes have consequences. BOO!

Here’s an excerpt from the linked article

“The other, potentially more damaging assault, comes from the progressive left, which views ethnic success as socially regressive rather than a validation of societal openness.” - Since when is America against success? Out of jealousy?
4321   AD   2024 Feb 11, 12:05pm  

Eman says

“The other, potentially more damaging assault, comes from the progressive left, which views ethnic success as socially regressive rather than a validation of societal openness.” - Since when is America against success? Out of jealousy?


Well Mister Eman, have you heard of school board member Alison Collins (who is not far from you) ? She publicly stated meritocracy is racist especially standardized testing.

She went full assault on local public schools as far as reforming them to cater more to historically disadvantaged minorities (not your demographic group, Eman).

And you may ask how that impacts housing as in home values ? It drives them down with that type of local population movement.

.
4322   Eman   2024 Feb 11, 12:09pm  

AD says

Eman says


“The other, potentially more damaging assault, comes from the progressive left, which views ethnic success as socially regressive rather than a validation of societal openness.” - Since when is America against success? Out of jealousy?


Well Mister Eman, have you heard of school board member Alison Collins (who is not far from you) ? She publicly stated meritocracy is racist especially standardized testing.

She went full assault on local public schools as far as reforming them to cater more to historically disadvantaged minorities (not your demographic group, Eman).

And you may ask how that impacts housing as in home values ? It drives them down with that type of local population movement.

.

Then let’s find out. It is what it is. I guess they’re grouping Asians with “White privileged”. Again, it is what it is. Jealousy is a bitch. It’s always someone else’s fault why they can’t succeed in America, the land of many many opportunities.

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