patrick.net

Walton County, FL now getting on 7-8 month supply.

stereotomy says

Painted Post NY is the Southern Tier. For the most part, it is dirt fucking poor rustbelt. The Fortune 500 company is Corning - that's it, period.

Binghampton area, one of the saddest places I ever visited.

Here’s another one. I guess this one qualifies as the Midwest. 8 cap for a NNN. Unheard of in CA. 😅

I get a handful of these everyday.

This one hit the inbox today too. CA is a big state. ARV is still 500/sf for this small house.

AmericanKulak says

Binghampton area, one of the saddest places I ever visited.

LOL! My mother was brought up in Binghamton. Still have scads of Irish relatives I can't even remember meeting around there. It is the original home of IBM. Some people bought IBM penny stocks sold door to door for small money, almost as an act of charity, and left them in a drawer, only to discover later that the stocks appreciated and split so often they were paper millionaires. One of my uncles married one of them, a woman whose family got rich on IBM stock, and she inherited a net worth of five million when it was really worth a lot at the time. They had six kids, and she paid the Vatican to grant her an annulment when such things were barely heard of, because the uncle was a run around. He didn't need her money, because he and another uncle had become egregiously wealthy owning an insurance company.

The uncle blew into town at Berkeley and once when visiting my family when I was at Uni. He thought I could scrape up coeds for him to screw, he was on his way to a hunting resort in Canada. I had scarcely two dimes to rub together as a student, much less dream of a coed of my own or pimp for him. He was generally a wonderful fellow, though, I really liked him from childhood. I don't think he realized how poor I was.

My grandfather was the postmaster general of the area, whatever that was, sounds kinna Masonic. They lived in a huge, multistory house just down the street from IBM. When all the kids moved out, after grandfather passed, my grandmother subdivided the place into a rooming house.

AmericanKulak says

Walton County, FL now getting on 7-8 month supply.

Yep, 189 days inventory or supply for the lucrative Miramar Beach in Walton County: https://altos.re/r/c73ce9ff-3a8e-4ac5-8989-8b2801168291?data=count

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The rental market is warm (somewhat strong demand): https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/miramar-fl/

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WookieMan says

Outside of oxygen you breath, everything is meant to extract money from you.

I hear you. Thank you wookieman

zzyzzx says

The practice seems to be verified quite a bit from state to state. In CA, the lender is the one who chooses the appraiser. The appraiser wants to be conservative on their appraisal value to protect himself and the lender. Not sure where the fraudulent comes from.

On another note, 84% LTV bridge loan for CRE? I wouldn’t be surprised there was some holdback loan amount for renovation, but I don’t get to see the loan docs.

Here in the Bay Area, it was 75% LTV max while lenders pulled back to 70% max LTV in 2022. Crazy practice.

https://x.com/aryal1994/status/1754866523657711628?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

February 7, 2024 report:

Across the Panama City metro area, median home prices fell to $447,375, slightly lower than a month earlier. The median home had 1,404 square feet, at a list price of $343 per square foot.

In Florida, median home prices were $459,945, a slight increase from December. The median Florida home listed for sale had 1,651 square feet, with a price of $280 per square foot.

Throughout the United States, the median home price was $409,500, a slight decrease from the month prior. The median American home for sale was listed at 1,823 square feet, with a price of $221 per square foot.

reference: https://www.newsherald.com/story/news/local/2024/02/07/real-estate-listings-202401/72456417007/

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AD says

Across the Panama City metro area, median home prices fell to $447,375, slightly lower than a month earlier. The median home had 1,404 square feet, at a list price of $343 per square foot.

They do not look cheep many be because of the proximity to the beach! One can find new shacks similar or cheaper price/sft in CA away from dark blue metros. Lately, even starter shacks are slightly bigger as the builders do not make much profits on small shacks!

Blue says

One can find new shacks similar or cheaper price/sft in CA away from dark blue metros.

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

These new California homes are cheaper than the same type of home in Panama City Beach

https://www.zillow.com/community/skyborne-vega/29471799_plid/

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AD says

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

Look up Uhaul rates. For real. That's how you can judge housing prices. If it's more expensive to leave than coming in, do the math. Your home prices are going down 100% of the time. Not even a debate.

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

These spam is in everyone's mail box around all the time. "I asked $2.Xm but sold for $3.Xm" ;) selective buyers are paying more than a mil or two for a termite ridden shack of 80y+ over the asking price!!

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

Some of those maffs look hard. How did she make 1,000,000 if she has to split it?

GNL says

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

Some of those maffs look hard. How did she make 1,000,000 if she has to split it?

It’s just my guess how she started this journey. She could be using her own money now, or then. She used to be a hitech employee who turned RE flipper and has done well.

I used to meet her at local meetups years ago. A buddy of mine is in her network and follows her work. She seems to have found a reliable contractor to work with, and she knows what buyers like to rehab the flip and get too dollars.

AD says

Facebook (or Meta) may do very well but overall the jobs market for that area may be barely satisfactory.

Facebook isn't high tech. A monkey can do censorship and maintain the databases. The worth of that company is their ability to control "the narrative", for propaganda purposes. People are starting to figure out "hey, Facebook promotes propaganda, and censors actual communication and knowledge".

It took fucking long enough, but people are figuring it out. You can complain about TikTok all you wish with it's stream of stupidity that's on that platform, but the reason it has done so well, is that it WASN'T censored for a long time. Telegram does quite well because it's hardly censored. Substack exists because of censorship, same with Rumble. None of these are in Silly Con Valley.

WookieMan says

AD says

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

Look up Uhaul rates. For real. That's how you can judge housing prices. If it's more expensive to leave than coming in, do the math. Your home prices are going down 100% of the time. Not even a debate.

Friends,

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in. They don't haul their sh*t across the pond in uhauls. They overpay for overpriced homes with overly high assessments to the homies who rent the uhauls to relocate to cheaper places. This is why we've had skewed uhaul for a long time here.

Compared to the concrete canyons of Asia they came from, our small sh*tboxes on postage stamp sized lots, and new canyons of condos in the Sunnyvale and Fremont corridors, are like the Wide Open Prairie, at Bargain Prices.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in.

You mean like H-1b visa workers ?

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B.A.C.A.H. says

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in. They don't haul their sh*t across the pond in uhauls. They overpay for overpriced homes with overly high assessments to the homies who rent the uhauls to relocate to cheaper places. This is why we've had skewed uhaul for a long time here.

So it turns into an Asian ghetto? My neighborhood in Chicago was next door to China Town. it was ghetto. I have no issue with any ethnicity, but I'll point out the flaws. These Asians may come in and buy, but whites will move out.

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods. CA is a different animal being on the West Coast. The whites are fleeing. You guys are going to have a mix of oriental and homeless at some point. Enjoy. The homeless don't pay taxes. The rich orientals might not either if they come from money. The CA situation is not sustainable.

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally.

Very true, if we are allowed to. The government does everything it can to prevent it though.

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods.

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

WookieMan says

The whites are fleeing.

My reference was not to the whole state, just the Bay Area.

Probably the biggest one-way uhaul rental destination from Bay Area is the Sierra Foothills.

And it's not just the whites. Locals of color who were born and raised in the region are fleeing too. Many of those non-whites were my homies. Mostly all replaced / displaced by Asian immigrants who either bring money bags with them, or, as I said, act like over-paying here is a Bargain for what they see as uncongested, Wide Open Prairie spaces here.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Mostly all replaced / displaced by Asian immigrants who either bring money bags with them

Approximately what percentage of these are H1-b visa workers ?

What percentage are Indian of these "Asian immigrants" are Indian ? What percentage are Chinese ?

I would think if they are buying over priced housing in Silicon Valley that it is because they are tech workers. They could easily buy a lot cheaper housing somewhere else in the USA that is just as nice.

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gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

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AD says

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way. I'm pretty sure your skin will be your uniform....if it were to get bad enough.

GNL says

AD says

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way. I'm pretty sure your skin will be your uniform....if it were to get bad enough.

So what's your point ? I've known this for at least 30 years as far as tribalism in certain cultures, etc.

I saw it as in right in my face in engineering grad school at UM Ann Arbor. The Chinese national students would stick together and cheat together.

Whereas the American students would be over competitive (and sometimes adversarial) with each other, the Chinese nationals stuck together and worked together.

I know the American students who tended to be the most smug, combative and competitive were left wing authoritarian and Democrat types.

The ones who were were more collaborative tended to be libertarian thinking type, like the homesteading mindset you would find in the northern part of the state. These were my people.

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gabbar says

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods.

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Tribalism to an extent. Education and your social culture are biggies. My nephew will mostly be friends with white people living in a rural farm town. He'll be the token black as is joked about. He's just a kid though. My eyes have been opened around race big time over the last 5 years.

Family, family, family oh and did I say family. I have my faults but my nephew would have been in a gang already by 12. Even if his mom could function he doesn't want to live with her. So we have 6 more years. He's black and we get side eye all the time and have issues with customs anytime we leave the country. We talk to him about this directly and he's aware he's different in the sense he's a black kid with a white family.

I guess what I'm saying is race doesn't matter. I don't want to live in a black culture. I don't want to live in an Asian culture. I like both of their cooking though and rarely have had issues with other culture... My nephew is being brought up in white culture. His skin is black. Who the fuck cares? I'm not going to South Shore of Chicago to raise my family. That's bad black. Segregation is a thing and I believe it should be.

If anyone thinks we're a melting pot, you lost your damn mind. We are segregated cultures. Skin color doesn't matter. A black lives with me and it doesn't move the needle. He's white culturally if you want my honest opinion. I give no shits what he looks like.

AD says

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

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Let me share my perspectives as an immigrant. We flock together as most of us came to this country, or any country, without speaking the native language, or knowing very limited language. It helps from a communication POV. Like any race or culture, we have low-, middle- and upper-class groups. Most, if not all, of us started at the bottom with the exception of a few like some international students, who came from wealthy families.

As we work our way up the society, we see things we didn’t see before. We view life differently. The term fortress, aka affluent neighborhoods, tends to have better schools and less bad influences. If anyone of us happens to make it, we’ll try to pull as many of us there as possible. If not possible, we’ll have the nieces and nephews reside with us so they can attend better schools and have a lesser chance of encountering bad influence.

When we’re poor, we bond together. As we come up, we also like to bond together. We’re a nuclear family.

I have heard of the competitiveness in some cultures, but I don’t see it in mine, or my and my wife’s sides of the family. We always do things together. We travel in big groups.

I love my friends. Some of them are extremely well off, but we’re all equal when we hangout. The ironic thing is that they all think they’re middle class. Tell me how many middle class people live in $4.5-$5.5M homes? 😅

Communication and behaviors also vary from culture to culture. The way people act, express, gesture, etc… When we hear Chinese folks talk, it seems like they’re arguing to us, but that’s how they communicate.

I’ve heard others said Bay Area people are rude. When I traveled to Portland, OR and Vancouver, Canada, I immediately noticed how nice those folks were.

Eman says

I love my friends. Some of them are extremely well off, but we’re all equal when we hangout. The ironic thing is that they all think they’re middle class. Tell me how many middle class people live in $4.5-$5.5M homes?

yeah all your crazy rich asian friends

and thanks for another one of your from-rags-to-riches-asian-immigrant story :-/

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AD says

Eman says

I love my friends. Some of them are extremely well off, but we’re all equal when we hangout. The ironic thing is that they all think they’re middle class. Tell me how many middle class people live in $4.5-$5.5M homes?

yeah all your crazy rich asian friends

and thanks for another one of your from-rags-to-riches-asian-immigrant story :-/

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Sometimes, you have to take that leap of faith and chase that dream. It has paid off for a bunch of my friends. Four of them are Indians so they speak English when they came to this country during their college years. Some were born here. Some didn’t speak the language, and still speak broken English. However, they all bought their houses when they were a few hundred thousands in the 80’s and 90’s. Who would have thought these houses would worth millions now?

GNL says

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way.

Please elaborate more as far as TSHTF and how people will behave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Luther_Pierce#The_Turner_Diaries

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Eman says

Communication and behaviors also vary from culture to culture. The way people act, express, gesture, etc… When we hear Chinese folks talk, it seems like they’re arguing to us, but that’s how they communicate.

I’ve heard others said Bay Area people are rude. When I traveled to Portland, OR and Vancouver, Canada, I immediately noticed how nice those folks were.

I've asked before. Do you get off the west coast? If not you don't know the country. Go to @AD land in the panhandle and it's absolutely different in a good way. Come to my town in IL or anywhere in Wisconsin. I'll be blunt. The West Coast is absolute trash, 90% of it. I don't care about the wealth. High cost of living makes you poor.

My family makes the same or more than we would in CA with less taxes. Leave CA. Get over weather. It's 2-3 months a year. Grow up. You'll be much happier and actually rich. You're house and income poor in CA. That goes for all the CA peeps here.

Portland and Vancouver are shit holes of morons. Travel east of the Mississippi where most of the country lives. Stay for a month. I get along with everyone, but I'm yet to meet a Californian that I'd call a friend. This is how the rest of the country looks at you cats if I'm being honest. You guys like the climate and don't do shit. Sorry for the aggressiveness, but this has been building up for a month. You guys need to get the fuck out of CA and experience who is voting for your leaders and stop speaking from a bully pulpit. CA is not remotely the country.

AD says

GNL says

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way.

Please elaborate more as far as TSHTF and how people will behave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Luther_Pierce#The_Turner_Diaries

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It's just my belief that if society turned into a kill or be killed chaos, people would go with base instincts. I know I would. And it's not because I hate other races. No, it's because I know there are people who hate other races and that can hurt any group.

WookieMan says

Do you get off the west coast? If not you don't know the country.

Yes.

It is hilarious to hear the Asian immigrants who've never left the Left Coast urban areas to experience our country, except for brief times within the protective bubble of a "vacation", or within a bubble of an elite graduate school program (like AD cited, Michigan), "explain it all" about what our country is like, about "life in the US", etc.

Mostly they do this in their languages that I don't understand, but not so for the Indians who speak English like it's their mother tongue (for many, English is their first language).

The Left Coast, and especially the Bay Area, has more in common with Hong Kong or London than with our country. They're clueless.

It is hilarious.

WookieMan says

Leave CA.

Most of my homies have left to escape the sh*t you describe, replaced by immigrants from Asia and from across the Southern Border.. Why haven't I? Well, we have lots of family here. We accept the shtty compromises to be close to our loved ones. But we choose to do this knowing we can leave if things get intolerable for us. I've spent lots of time in Flyover Country, got lots of cousins all over. I'd be as comfortable in Flyover Country, as here in the Bay Area..

Saw this on X and thought of this thread.

Eman says

Saw this on X and thought of this thread.

And 3 generations later, poor again.

@AD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z79jnz9v60

HeadSet says

Eman says

Saw this on X and thought of this thread.

And 3 generations later, poor again.

Your comment hits a little close to home for me.

My son inlaw is 3rd generation from the founder of his family's family owned REIT. His grandfather built quite a nice RE empire. They own many apartment complexes in multiple states, much property on an American Island (I won't say which one but it is on par with Martha's Vinyard), some hotels and commercial property. The grandfather had 4+ children. All of them had kids and now some of the kids (my son inlaw) are starting to have kids. Almost all of them are living off of the Founder's efforts. My grandchildren (who are pre 10 year olds) already own shares of the family REIT. I told my wife the next 20 years will be quite interesting since the Matriarch is still alive and, I assume, holds most of the weath. When she dies, I'm assuming there will be an avalanche of $$ coming. No, I do not know how their wealth is structured so, who knows, but I do believe, the way they are all living, that the $$ will eventually run out.