patrick.net

This is why this housing cycle is different with previous housing cycles. CRE is much more being impacted in this cycle due to ARM loans.

The second biggest economy in the world is not doing well. What will cause the next recession for the US, or even the world? It has been known “every recession is different.” Happy to sit on my hands and wait



https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1754302767789694990?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

WookieMan says

I've easily been on 500 inspections, they're cons

Explain please. What should a home buyer know about inspections? Thanks for sharing your wisdom, I am learning.

Eman says

The second biggest economy in the world is not doing well. What will cause the next recession for the US, or even the world?

China, layoffs in technology, housing and automotive industry, artificial intelligence, US consumer, a new war.....

gabbar says

WookieMan says

I've easily been on 500 inspections, they're cons

Explain please. What should a home buyer know about inspections? Thanks for sharing your wisdom, I am learning.

Get somebody local the locals trust, they can be quite valuable

Eman says

Labor cost is the same for us. Just upgrade the materials, and the ARV will go through the roof.

I dated a gal in the rehab/flipping/landlording business. She was quite a mover and shaker. She spoke Chinese and Spanish and had a small army of non-citizen contractors who loved her because she could get them steady work. Some would even live in the house that was being worked on so they could live cheap and put in big hours. She would buy houses for herself or clients based on which contractors were finishing previous projects and would be available to move to the next one. In this case, her labor costs were probably in line with legal workers in other parts of the country.

In addition to using decent materials, the fact that the house is completely empty really helps speed the makeover. If you're going to replace wallboard anyway, it's a lot easier refitting ducting and rewiring the electrical after just ripping the wallboard off. Buyers can be willing to pay for a house that is move-in ready rather than dealing with a mess for months. Not only that, but buyers without all the contractor contacts will massively overpay for any remodeling. And, for the most part, prospective owners won't be doing the work themselves or know anything about how to do the work, since they are only able to afford a $2MM+ house because they are very busy in high-tech.

@SunnyvaleCA,

I see someone from MY market, who understands what Bay Area real estate market is like.

Yes, empty house makes the project move faster. We normally rip everything down to the studs, run new electrical wires, new plumbing, insulation and do a smooth drywall finish. Everything is done with permits and the city inspectors inspect everything. We also provide inspection reports to all buyers and be sure the flips are free of section 1 termites so there are no hiccups on closing. Also, all workmanship is guaranteed for 1-year in accordance with California State License Board.

I’ve never used $19/sf tile on any flips. In fact, I don’t even have $19/sf tile anywhere in my house. I don’t know of anyone in my sphere using $19/sf tile including my biz partner, who lives in a $4.5M house in Palo Alto.

Our toilets are all Kohler and they’re around $199-$229 each. This is what we use for our flips too. However, we have Brondell bidets installed in our home. Each costs $399.99. In fact, I just ordered one last week. Basically, just decent materials. 😅

Apparently, CA’s practice is different from other states where shoddy works would pass inspections, and there’s likely no guarantee of workmanship. Always learning something new.

Good post for problem solvers who like real estate.

https://x.com/thinkappraiser/status/1754562162843169254?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Got this in my inbox today. Seeing this stuff from the Midwest makes me want to jump out of my couch and fly there to buy. Built in 2000 with 50,400sf finished office space with 464 parking spaces on 16 acres of land for $1.25M.

The median home price in San Jose is $1.6M on a 6,000sf lot. 🤯

gabbar says

WookieMan says

I've easily been on 500 inspections, they're cons

Explain please. What should a home buyer know about inspections? Thanks for sharing your wisdom, I am learning.

They're not knowledgable. Most probably couldn't change a tire and just got a license. Their core job is to scare people to justify a moron walking through the biggest purchase of their lives to scare them.

I know Dan the owner. Don't let the reviews fool you: https://www.yelp.com/biz/domicile-consulting-chicago-2?override_cta=Request+quote+%26+availability

Outside of oxygen you breath, everything is meant to extract money from you. Learn some trades. It's not difficult. Never rely on inspectors for your primary home or investments. They are dip shits. Don't buy flips. Buy a fixer upper and do it yourself. Real estate is math and what you want in a property. Commercial is way easier, but harder to get loans. I won't touch residential anymore. Not worth it.

Eman says

Got this in my inbox today. Seeing this stuff from the Midwest makes me want to jump out of my couch and fly there to buy. Built in 2000 with 50,400sf finished office space with 464 parking spaces on 16 acres of land for $1.25M.

The median home price in San Jose is $1.6M on a 6,000sf lot. 🤯

You should. I'm sure it's a slam dunk. If it's cheaper than a San Jose house, it's GOT TO BE the deal of a lifetime. :)

UkraineIsFucked says

What you heard is crap.

Maybe so? It was Mark Moss who I sometimes think it a bit of a shock-finance guy. It's also lame he stopped using Rumble, I rarely listen to him anymore but here is the short video where I heard that:

The Fed's Worst Nightmare: Yellen's Sly Maneuver Revealed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIlYkxsm-KQ

Re: Yellen/Treasury sending so many bonds to the Fed they have no choice but to drop interest rates...

Eman says

Got this in my inbox today. Seeing this stuff from the Midwest makes me want to jump out of my couch and fly there to buy. Built in 2000 with 50,400sf finished office space with 464 parking spaces on 16 acres of land for $1.25M.

The median home price in San Jose is $1.6M on a 6,000sf lot. 🤯

You do realize that NY is not the midwest, right?

I don't know that part of NY at all, but that's cheap. That's what my Uncle did along with my dad and another guy that recently passed who is also 9 figures deep. Unfortunately my dad was a dip shit, but I don't need his money anyway, he's also already dead. Never expected a damn thing from him.

I asked you if you leave the state of CA. There's plenty of good money elsewhere to make. And easy. CA with it's high cost of living is stupid to invest in. You'd make more in Oklahoma or Mississippi if you're doing volume. Less risk also.

Painted Post NY is the Southern Tier. For the most part, it is dirt fucking poor rustbelt. The Fortune 500 company is Corning - that's it, period.

Walton County, FL now getting on 7-8 month supply.

stereotomy says

Painted Post NY is the Southern Tier. For the most part, it is dirt fucking poor rustbelt. The Fortune 500 company is Corning - that's it, period.

Binghampton area, one of the saddest places I ever visited.

Here’s another one. I guess this one qualifies as the Midwest. 8 cap for a NNN. Unheard of in CA. 😅

I get a handful of these everyday.

This one hit the inbox today too. CA is a big state. ARV is still 500/sf for this small house.

AmericanKulak says

Binghampton area, one of the saddest places I ever visited.

LOL! My mother was brought up in Binghamton. Still have scads of Irish relatives I can't even remember meeting around there. It is the original home of IBM. Some people bought IBM penny stocks sold door to door for small money, almost as an act of charity, and left them in a drawer, only to discover later that the stocks appreciated and split so often they were paper millionaires. One of my uncles married one of them, a woman whose family got rich on IBM stock, and she inherited a net worth of five million when it was really worth a lot at the time. They had six kids, and she paid the Vatican to grant her an annulment when such things were barely heard of, because the uncle was a run around. He didn't need her money, because he and another uncle had become egregiously wealthy owning an insurance company.

The uncle blew into town at Berkeley and once when visiting my family when I was at Uni. He thought I could scrape up coeds for him to screw, he was on his way to a hunting resort in Canada. I had scarcely two dimes to rub together as a student, much less dream of a coed of my own or pimp for him. He was generally a wonderful fellow, though, I really liked him from childhood. I don't think he realized how poor I was.

My grandfather was the postmaster general of the area, whatever that was, sounds kinna Masonic. They lived in a huge, multistory house just down the street from IBM. When all the kids moved out, after grandfather passed, my grandmother subdivided the place into a rooming house.

AmericanKulak says

Walton County, FL now getting on 7-8 month supply.

Yep, 189 days inventory or supply for the lucrative Miramar Beach in Walton County: https://altos.re/r/c73ce9ff-3a8e-4ac5-8989-8b2801168291?data=count

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The rental market is warm (somewhat strong demand): https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/miramar-fl/

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WookieMan says

Outside of oxygen you breath, everything is meant to extract money from you.

I hear you. Thank you wookieman

zzyzzx says

The practice seems to be verified quite a bit from state to state. In CA, the lender is the one who chooses the appraiser. The appraiser wants to be conservative on their appraisal value to protect himself and the lender. Not sure where the fraudulent comes from.

On another note, 84% LTV bridge loan for CRE? I wouldn’t be surprised there was some holdback loan amount for renovation, but I don’t get to see the loan docs.

Here in the Bay Area, it was 75% LTV max while lenders pulled back to 70% max LTV in 2022. Crazy practice.

https://x.com/aryal1994/status/1754866523657711628?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

February 7, 2024 report:

Across the Panama City metro area, median home prices fell to $447,375, slightly lower than a month earlier. The median home had 1,404 square feet, at a list price of $343 per square foot.

In Florida, median home prices were $459,945, a slight increase from December. The median Florida home listed for sale had 1,651 square feet, with a price of $280 per square foot.

Throughout the United States, the median home price was $409,500, a slight decrease from the month prior. The median American home for sale was listed at 1,823 square feet, with a price of $221 per square foot.

reference: https://www.newsherald.com/story/news/local/2024/02/07/real-estate-listings-202401/72456417007/

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AD says

Across the Panama City metro area, median home prices fell to $447,375, slightly lower than a month earlier. The median home had 1,404 square feet, at a list price of $343 per square foot.

They do not look cheep many be because of the proximity to the beach! One can find new shacks similar or cheaper price/sft in CA away from dark blue metros. Lately, even starter shacks are slightly bigger as the builders do not make much profits on small shacks!

Blue says

One can find new shacks similar or cheaper price/sft in CA away from dark blue metros.

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

These new California homes are cheaper than the same type of home in Panama City Beach

https://www.zillow.com/community/skyborne-vega/29471799_plid/

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AD says

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

Look up Uhaul rates. For real. That's how you can judge housing prices. If it's more expensive to leave than coming in, do the math. Your home prices are going down 100% of the time. Not even a debate.

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

These spam is in everyone's mail box around all the time. "I asked $2.Xm but sold for $3.Xm" ;) selective buyers are paying more than a mil or two for a termite ridden shack of 80y+ over the asking price!!

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

Some of those maffs look hard. How did she make 1,000,000 if she has to split it?

GNL says

Eman says

I guess 65-75% ARV works for her. I believe she flips with investors’ money and split the profit. This way, no holding cost on borrowing hard money and no paying points. Many ways to skin a cat.

Some of those maffs look hard. How did she make 1,000,000 if she has to split it?

It’s just my guess how she started this journey. She could be using her own money now, or then. She used to be a hitech employee who turned RE flipper and has done well.

I used to meet her at local meetups years ago. A buddy of mine is in her network and follows her work. She seems to have found a reliable contractor to work with, and she knows what buyers like to rehab the flip and get too dollars.

AD says

Facebook (or Meta) may do very well but overall the jobs market for that area may be barely satisfactory.

Facebook isn't high tech. A monkey can do censorship and maintain the databases. The worth of that company is their ability to control "the narrative", for propaganda purposes. People are starting to figure out "hey, Facebook promotes propaganda, and censors actual communication and knowledge".

It took fucking long enough, but people are figuring it out. You can complain about TikTok all you wish with it's stream of stupidity that's on that platform, but the reason it has done so well, is that it WASN'T censored for a long time. Telegram does quite well because it's hardly censored. Substack exists because of censorship, same with Rumble. None of these are in Silly Con Valley.

WookieMan says

AD says

Yep. Ran a search for entire state of California with this criteria: detached home, no more than 3 years old, +2 bedrm/+2 bath

Look up Uhaul rates. For real. That's how you can judge housing prices. If it's more expensive to leave than coming in, do the math. Your home prices are going down 100% of the time. Not even a debate.

Friends,

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in. They don't haul their sh*t across the pond in uhauls. They overpay for overpriced homes with overly high assessments to the homies who rent the uhauls to relocate to cheaper places. This is why we've had skewed uhaul for a long time here.

Compared to the concrete canyons of Asia they came from, our small sh*tboxes on postage stamp sized lots, and new canyons of condos in the Sunnyvale and Fremont corridors, are like the Wide Open Prairie, at Bargain Prices.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in.

You mean like H-1b visa workers ?

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B.A.C.A.H. says

Your observation doesn't apply to the Bay Area. Asian immigrants parachute in. They don't haul their sh*t across the pond in uhauls. They overpay for overpriced homes with overly high assessments to the homies who rent the uhauls to relocate to cheaper places. This is why we've had skewed uhaul for a long time here.

So it turns into an Asian ghetto? My neighborhood in Chicago was next door to China Town. it was ghetto. I have no issue with any ethnicity, but I'll point out the flaws. These Asians may come in and buy, but whites will move out.

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods. CA is a different animal being on the West Coast. The whites are fleeing. You guys are going to have a mix of oriental and homeless at some point. Enjoy. The homeless don't pay taxes. The rich orientals might not either if they come from money. The CA situation is not sustainable.

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally.

Very true, if we are allowed to. The government does everything it can to prevent it though.

WookieMan says

We segregate naturally. I don't dislike Asians or blacks, but I wouldn't live in those neighborhoods.

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

WookieMan says

The whites are fleeing.

My reference was not to the whole state, just the Bay Area.

Probably the biggest one-way uhaul rental destination from Bay Area is the Sierra Foothills.

And it's not just the whites. Locals of color who were born and raised in the region are fleeing too. Many of those non-whites were my homies. Mostly all replaced / displaced by Asian immigrants who either bring money bags with them, or, as I said, act like over-paying here is a Bargain for what they see as uncongested, Wide Open Prairie spaces here.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Mostly all replaced / displaced by Asian immigrants who either bring money bags with them

Approximately what percentage of these are H1-b visa workers ?

What percentage are Indian of these "Asian immigrants" are Indian ? What percentage are Chinese ?

I would think if they are buying over priced housing in Silicon Valley that it is because they are tech workers. They could easily buy a lot cheaper housing somewhere else in the USA that is just as nice.

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gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

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AD says

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way. I'm pretty sure your skin will be your uniform....if it were to get bad enough.

GNL says

AD says

gabbar says

I understand but why? Is it because of tribalism? What are the sentiments behind this?

Birds of the same feather, hence they stick together (or flock together)

Really? It is as natural as breathing. You just don't see it as openly as in the past. Just wait (if it ever happens) till TSHTF is a serious way. I'm pretty sure your skin will be your uniform....if it were to get bad enough.

So what's your point ? I've known this for at least 30 years as far as tribalism in certain cultures, etc.

I saw it as in right in my face in engineering grad school at UM Ann Arbor. The Chinese national students would stick together and cheat together.

Whereas the American students would be over competitive (and sometimes adversarial) with each other, the Chinese nationals stuck together and worked together.

I know the American students who tended to be the most smug, combative and competitive were left wing authoritarian and Democrat types.

The ones who were were more collaborative tended to be libertarian thinking type, like the homesteading mindset you would find in the northern part of the state. These were my people.

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