patrick.net

HeadSet says

And just is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?

Untouchable. Another $2M if we're talking life insurance. Her or I die and it's $4M at 41-42 years of age. Not including equity in our house. At a conservative interest rate of 2% I'm looking at $80k per year. Doing nothing and not draining the $2M or if one of us dies $4M. I'm retired now basically. Wife could be too. Just have 6 more years with kids and we're done at 48 roughly.

The office-debt meltdown keeps getting worse. The motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. But now what?

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Look at credit cards. People want to keep their houses. Those numbers are up bigly for day to day purchases. Not sure what Trump can do. Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels. Clinton, Bush and Obama having two consecutive terms regardless of how you feel about them led to some stability.

We'll see if Trump can right the ship in 4 years. He's already trying. Not sure how quickly he can extinguish this dumpster fire he's left with. This is a shit show right now. Where is Biden? Don't care about Harris as she's a dumb ass. I think everyone has just gone on vacation till the 20th.

WookieMan says

Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels.

Although they say don't mistake incompetence for malice, it is also important to not mistake malice for incompetence.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

For houses, yes.

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long* ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

* Not long ago = 2022

Blackstone is selling. His most recent video has data on the Blackstone and their and other Holding Companies, letting go of 3-5% of their inventory in TX and FL, where their biggest shares are.
Blackstone dumping in FL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g&t=57s

Blackstone and others dumping in TX, the #1 state for Investor-owned SFH:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSrstSITn7A

"I'm smarter than Wall Street" - Harry Homeseller Holding Out

Fuck the rates. It's the underlying price that's the stumbling block. Mortgage rates don't impact property taxes or homeowner's insurance; the price does.

AmericanKulak says

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

Not long ago = 2022

Someone needs to tell this guy that: https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

"So? Look at those early 20s and mid 30s peaks!"

And we haven't built 50-60M housing units these past 3 decades? Is the boomer housing going to disappear along with the boomers?