patrick.net

So do you rent in inflationary times or buy a house with dropping prices? Decisions.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/212d18cc-91f0-3129-ac56-183b8cbda094/lowe%E2%80%99s-sales-drop-again-as.html

Lowe’s Sales Drop Again as Homeowners Pull Back on Discretionary Purchases

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-as-rates-declined-slightly.html

Mortgage demand fell last week even as rates declined slightly

Free Pizza with house:

https://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/08-16-22-austin-real-estate-report-housing-inventory-highest-levels-since-2018/

Austin housing inventory skyrockets to highest levels since 2018

GNLusedto says

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".

Bank owns the property. They hire a RE broker to manage it and make sure it doesn't break (so to speak). They (brokers) then hire out another party to take care of the place. Winterizing, weekly checkups, etc. So basically 3-4 levels deep from the actual owner, the bank. Someone does AND will always drop the ball and the property gets fucked up costing the banks thousands at minimum and potentially 100's of thousands.

If you don't trust RE agents in sales, management is even worse. And that's the go to when a property forecloses unless things have changed in the last 3-4 years, which they should have. Brokers who are sales whores (which you likely know from our conversations) have no clue how to manage property. 9 out of 10 times they can't change a faucet in the bathroom or kitchen. Many are bimbos. Never trust an RE broker with managing your property. Never. They're sales people. They sell homes, don't manage. Hell most cannot manage their business without going BK at some point in the cycles of RE.

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

Waiting on free house with pizza.

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

boise is super expensive with all the CA millionnaires moving in with equity. many of those folks are moving to meridian. housing prices here are at peak, and taxes aren’t locked.

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...but the state and local governments worries me.

https://notthebee.com/article/hoo-boy-new-housing-construction-plunged-last-month-flashing-a-telltale-warning-sign-for-a-possible-recession

Hoo boy: New housing construction plunged last month, adding more worry of a mass housing crash

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST

I wish what you wrote is true.

This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.

If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plunge?srnd=premium

US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article264650054.html

Miami-Dade housing market finally cooling, as prices dip for first time since 2021

1337irr says

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...

I'm with B.A.C.A.H. on this. Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay. I do expect normal seasonality to kick in for the Fall. Hopefully we'll start seeing some drops soon as price to rent ratio is extremely out of whack...

I'm already getting desperate calls from lenders for a refi.Dumb fucks all my mortgages are under 3.5.

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already several times. Same for NYC.

EBGuy says

Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay.

Not yet would be more appropriate.

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

Some guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.

Patrick says

ome guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.

Since when did anybody in SF need a bathroom?

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...

Haha - I'm waiting for commercial real estate buildings to be converted into residential.

I was kind of disappointed that malls were never converted to residential units. They could have done that. It would be nice to live in an area where at the ground floor are trees and grass, illuminated by a skylight and heated and cooled year round. That would be the fake outside, but still you could go for a walk in December in upstate New York in shorts with your family and dog.

Problem with malls though, is they were all built like crap.

https://www.realtrends.com/articles/keller-williams-implements-4th-round-of-layoffs/

I don't want to see 5.6% mortgage rates. I want to see 25.6% mortgage rates.

GNLused says

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?

GameStop (stock) of course.

That stock is proof of inflation..

GNLused says

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?

Nobody wants to invest in housing or crypto, so the stock market wins by default.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/cheap-homes-house-prices-are-being-slashed-in-former-pandemic-boomtowns

Non paywall link:
https://archive.ph/EuBeO

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/23/what-a-housing-recession-means-for-homeowners-buyers-sellers.html

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

exfatguy says

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

It could happen but, most likely over a long period of time.

zzyzzx says

But but but, it won’t be like 2008 this time…..

All the illegals will pool their cash and buy up inventory as prices drop while leaving the rentier class holding the shit bag…

https://thepricklypear.org/housing-recession-sales-plunge-to-lockdown-levels-active-listings-surge-prices-begin-to-dip-as-price-reductions-spike-investors-pull-back/

exfatguy says

My perfect scenario is rates go to 11%, and house prices drop accordingly so that monthly payments are affordable. I then buy at lower principal, and shortly after that rates go back down to 2% and I refinance! I can dream, right?

Yes.

And lock in a lower Proposition 13 assessment.

I'm hoping that home prices drop such that near the bottom I'm ready to buy my retirement home in Florida and GTFO of the Northeast.