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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   634,350 views  6,137 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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6068   stereotomy   2025 Mar 18, 4:58pm  

WookieMan says

My problem with 2 story is the setback and easement areas. Your yard is useless.

I hate 2 story as well, but I'd appreciate you being able to elaborate about these issues you mentioned. Thanks!
6069   AD   2025 Mar 20, 10:47am  

not sure if this include paying for the land


6070   AmericanKulak   2025 Mar 20, 9:34pm  

DeSantis and FL Legislature mention doing away with the FL State Property Tax entirely.


Several proposals are focused on providing tax relief for homeowners and property owners.

HB 359 – A new $100,000 tax exemption on all properties, including non-homesteaded properties, to provide immediate relief.
SB 1018 – A proposal to increase the homestead exemption from $25,000 to $75,000.
HB 787 / SB 996 – A bill to cap year-over-year property tax revenue growth at 2% to prevent rapid increases.
SB 852 – A bill ordering a study on eliminating property taxes in Florida, though no similar House bill has been filed, Sen. Jonathan Martin tells Florida’s Voice he is hopeful for a co-sponsor.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has voiced support for eliminating property taxes altogether, no bills to fully abolish them have been filed.

https://flvoicenews.com/hot-topic-bills-to-watch-in-the-2025-legislative-session-property-tax-relief-firearms-term-limits-more/

With the explosion of FL housing prices in the past 5 years, so has been the explosion of property tax bills. On top of explosive insurance bills.
6071   DeportLibtards   2025 Mar 21, 1:23am  

AmericanKulak says


With the explosion of FL housing prices in the past 5 years, so has been the explosion of property tax bills. On top of explosive insurance bills.


And the only way to fix it is lower property values.

But nobody wants to talk about that.
6072   Misc   2025 Mar 21, 1:40am  

DeportLibtards says

And the only way to fix it is lower property values.

But nobody wants to talk about that.


Nope, DeSantis put into place a committee looking to do away with property taxes in the State of Florida.
6073   DeportLibtards   2025 Mar 21, 1:45am  

Misc says


Nope, DeSantis put into place a committee looking to do away with property taxes in the State of Florida.


No. They are going to apply it when a house is sold. Which will reduce sale prices.

The property is still going to get taxed.

Unless Florida replaces it with another revenue source, like an income tax.
6074   B.A.C.A.H.   2025 Mar 21, 9:16am  

AD says


It may create incentives for retirees to sell their homes near the job centers and move an hour east so that they'll still be close to family and/or whatever else is keeping them in California.

Yes, but not just retirees.

I know so many folks, retirees and non-retirees, who did this. It's been going on for decades.

The couple who sold their home to us over three decades ago were one of those non-retirees who relocated to the Central Valley. The neighboring house on the north side sold by a 40-ish bachelor who relocated to the Sierra Foothills with his fiancee in the 1990's. The neighboring guy on the south side, also not retired yet, relocated to the Central Valley about 15 years ago for a job similar to the one he had here.

The three recent sales on the culdesac in the past decade were by folks who retired to be near their kids at places not too far away.

The recent sales, for 1200 sq ft 50 year old sh*tboxes with aluminum wiring in an undesirable school district, were all over $1 million. The local schools have turned into a "don't care" for the new childless demographic in these parts. Our former blue-collar 'hood is gentrifying a bit more with each sale.

This is what gentrification looks like:

First, some background. The extreme overcrowding, horrible traffic, and insane over the top prices (including, $15k-$20k per year property taxes on recent purchases here) look like the Wide Open Prairie, at Bargain Prices, compared to where these folks come from in Asia.

The extended family of childless working age buyers pool their resources to pack like rats into these little sh*tboxes. SInce they're all on the hamster wheel working to pay for their American Dream, they all have autos. Where a household formerly had two or at most three vehicles, with two in the driveway and maybe one on the curb, the new-sale homes may have five, six or more. Besides spilling over to take up the curb space, they have to park on their front lawns which some have paved over. During the workday there's plenty of parking. But good luck finding a spot on the curb at night. And after servicing their Bargain Prices housing cost, they seem to have the resources left over to spend on payments for Status Symbol cars. Teslas, Audi, BMW, etc. Come here at night and the length of the curb on the culdesac looks like a valet parking area for Silicon Valley tech titans.
6075   AD   2025 Mar 21, 10:34am  

B.A.C.A.H. says


. Come here at night and the length of the curb on the culdesac looks like a valet parking area for Silicon Valley tech titans.


No thank you as I respectfully decline that implied offer to visit your white liberal and Democrat shithole state

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6076   AmericanKulak   2025 Mar 22, 1:48pm  

DeportLibtards says


Unless Florida replaces it with another revenue source, like an income tax.

Upping the sales tax would be great. Also why not a good old fashioned PER CAPITA tax? Or a flat tax on bedrooms or bathrooms?


Average Rental Price in January 2024
In January 2024, the average rental price in Florida was around $2,433, according to data from a Newsweek article (Why Florida Rents Are Falling).
Average Rental Price in March 2025
As of March 2025, the overall average fair market rent for residential rental properties in Florida is estimated at $1,752, based on data from RentalRealEstate.com (Florida (FL) Average Rent Prices 2025).


Via Grok3 Deep Search
6077   Glock-n-Load   2025 Mar 22, 2:05pm  

Down almost $700?
6078   AmericanKulak   2025 Mar 22, 2:29pm  

Glock-n-Load says


Down almost $700?


Florida not only has a Condo problem, but also a huge apartment/townhouse explosion the past few years with 100k's of units added from Ocala to Orlando, St. Petersburg to Pt St Lucie

UPDATE: Checked a few of the professionally owned and operated nearby new apt complexes (less than 10 years old) - not only did they drop from ~$2.5k for a two bed to ~$1900, they're now offering 2 free months and waiving all the "Admin/Move-In" fees which were at least $250. These are properties either on the Island or on the intercoastal on the mainland.

UPDATE 2: HOLY SHIT! Near the University area (east of downtown Orlando) 2 beds were going for $2400 a few years ago and now down to $1600 plus a month free lease. These are the nice, new "luxury" ones for spoiled students or recent grads.

I remember how much this was because in 2022 I had just come back to the States.
6079   AD   2025 Mar 22, 4:18pm  

AmericanKulak says


UPDATE 2: HOLY SHIT! Near the University area (east of downtown Orlando) 2 beds were going for $2400 a few years ago and now down to $1600 plus a month free lease. These are the nice, new "luxury" ones for college students/recent grads.


yep, Zillow is not bullshiting as it says "cool" market for rentals and average $1795 for 2 bedrooms : https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/orlando-fl/?bedrooms=2

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/72282/orlando-fl-32890/
6082   AD   2025 Mar 22, 8:16pm  

AmericanKulak says








This is what was reported in the Wall Street Journal as far as Birdbrain Biden admin trying to prevent a significant increase in foreclosures during election year 2024.

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6083   gabbar   2025 Mar 23, 7:42am  

WookieMan says

My problem with 2 story is the setback and easement areas.

Another problem with 2 storied residential homes is the staircase riser and tread dimensions. These two dimensions are short by 2 to 4" which makes the staircase less user friendly. What do you guys think?
6084   mell   2025 Mar 23, 8:18am  

gabbar says


WookieMan says


My problem with 2 story is the setback and easement areas.

Another problem with 2 storied residential homes is the staircase riser and tread dimensions. These two dimensions are short by 2 to 4" which makes the staircase less user friendly. What do you guys think?


If you're talking hauling larger stuff up and down that's definitely harder with stairs, however you will stay younger and healthier if you climb and go down a decent amount of stairs every day. People aren't doing their mobility a favor if they do away with stairs, one of the best exercises.
6085   Patrick   2025 Mar 23, 7:43pm  

AD says

not sure if this include paying for the land


No, the land cost is in addition to those other costs.
6086   Glock-n-Load   2025 Mar 23, 7:55pm  

Patrick says

AD says


not sure if this include paying for the land


No, the land cost is in addition to those other costs.

Does it include builder’s profit?
6087   AD   2025 Mar 23, 9:35pm  

I suspect the builder's or general contractor's profit is incorporated within each category.

Yes, the land cost is likely separate such as a $20,000 for a small lot for a two floor (1800 sq foot) home in northwest Florida.
6088   AmericanKulak   2025 Mar 23, 11:19pm  

Laughing my ass off at people who think:

A) The interest rates, not prices, are the #1 problem
And
B) Mortage rates can realistically fall below 6% in the next 2-3 quarters and bond buyers will put up with that when inflation was 0.5% just in January.
As well as
C) People with under 5% rates can hold forever and millions of homeowners will NOT have health crisis, job moves, unemployment issues, or family issues anytime in the next few years.
And finally
D1) Rental price drops have no impact on residential home sales.
and
D2) The massive building of multifamily units these past few years will have no impact on the housing market.
https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data

BTW: "CPI Rent of Primary Residence" is calculated in a way so retarded in modern times as to be unbelievable. The Fed calls a few hundred primary owners (not investors) nationwide (average in their house over 9+ years!) and asks them what they would pay to rent their house if it wasn't theirs. Most of these people haven't looked at local rent prices in years and are thus more out of touch than Hall & Oates.
6089   Misc   2025 Mar 26, 4:48am  

After a twinge last month, the Case/Shiller went ahead with a new All Time High this month.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
6090   Misc   2025 Mar 26, 10:01pm  

DeportLibtards says

Misc says



Nope, DeSantis put into place a committee looking to do away with property taxes in the State of Florida.


No. They are going to apply it when a house is sold. Which will reduce sale prices.

The property is still going to get taxed.

Unless Florida replaces it with another revenue source, like an income tax.


Yep, that's what they're looking at higher sales taxes and taxes on tourists.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/how-no-property-taxes-in-florida-could-impact-your-wallet-as-a-homeowner-in-the-state/ar-AA1BoV3y?pc=U531
6091   AD   2025 Mar 27, 11:42am  

Misc says

Yep, that's what they're looking at higher sales taxes and taxes on tourists.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/how-no-property-taxes-in-florida-could-impact-your-wallet-as-a-homeowner-in-the-state/ar-AA1BoV3y?pc=U531


They are trying to get the corrupt counties like Bay County, Florida to be more cautious and due diligent with their finances. The state needs to revise the tourist development tax (also called bed tax) to require the counties to spend at least 50% of the receipts on infrastructure.

.
6092   GNL   2025 Mar 27, 5:05pm  

My friend in Fort Myers Fl. is trying to get the state to raise his house. He's been flooded 3 times and has given up repairing it until his house gets raised. Evidently Florida has a program called Raise Florida that will pay 75% of the cost to put your house on stilts if you qualify.
6093   DeportLibtards   2025 Mar 27, 5:23pm  

GNL says

My friend in Fort Myers Fl. is trying to get the state to raise his house. He's been flooded 3 times and has given up repairing it until his house gets raised. Evidently Florida has a program called Raise Florida that will pay 75% of the cost to put your house on stilts if you qualify.


Here is a radical idea: ppl shouldn't build in storm/flood zones, period. Or if they do, they pay 100% for it all. If they need stilts, they pay for that too. And of they can get a lender stupid enough to finance that, no bailouts for them either.

Moral Hazard 101.

And yes: Same thing applies to CA when the next 8.x Big One hits there, too.
6094   Ceffer   2025 Mar 27, 5:29pm  

It doesn't matter if they raise the houses on pilings. The storms will blow the windows out and drench them anyway and wreck just about everything inside. A lot of the damage comes from rapidly fluctuating high pressures that bend the house until it breaks and/or blows the roof off. There is no safe haven except a building that is more or less windowless concrete. If you are in an area that is merely flooded, the stilts will help.

In the areas around New Orleans, they just expect that their bayou vacation houses on stilts will get blown out periodically and have to be rebuilt and they build them to suit.
6095   AD   2025 Mar 27, 9:18pm  

AmericanKulak says


Florida not only has a Condo problem, but also a huge apartment/townhouse explosion the past few years with 100k's of units added from Ocala to Orlando, St. Petersburg to Pt St Lucie


vacation rental in Panama City Beach, figure worst case is 6% annual ROI based on $20K annual profit and $330K purchase price (includes closing costs, renovation costs, etc)


6096   AD   2025 Mar 27, 9:44pm  

Ceffer says


The storms will blow the windows out and drench them anyway and wreck just about everything inside.


Our townhome is about 2 miles from the beach and the wind gusts were 205 mph for Hurricane Michael and sustained wind was around 160 mph. There was no damage to our home other than a broken seal for the back french doors.

I agree as its the storm surge from a nearby body of water like the Gulf of America or Atlantic Ocean which can cause the damage not just from flooding but the force of water against the building structures.

Storm surge damage is only covered by flood insurance not HO3 insurance.

.
6097   Ceffer   2025 Mar 27, 10:30pm  

AD says

Our townhome is about 2 miles from the beach

That could make a difference depending. My wife is from New Orleans and her relatives with stilted houses (mostly hunting and fishing vacation places) closer to the Gulf were all blown through after Katarina. They don't even bother boarding them up, they even open the windows. They just plan to rebuild and hope the roof holds up. There were vids of a bunch of these stilted homes blown through.

Even the town of Slidell closer the central tract of the hurricane was over 80 percent destroyed.
6098   stfu   2025 Mar 28, 2:56am  

AD says

vacation rental in Panama City Beach, figure worst case is 6% annual ROI based on $20K annual profit and $330K purchase price (includes closing costs, renovation costs, etc)

We visited Panama City about 10 years ago with the intent of purchasing a vacation condo. We never pulled the trigger because, while the purchase prices were reasonable, the condo assc. fees ranged anywhere from $600 to $1,000 per month.
6099   AmericanKulak   2025 Mar 28, 4:22am  

AD says


vacation rental in Panama City Beach, figure worst case is 6% annual ROI based on $20K annual profit and $330K purchase price (includes closing costs, renovation costs, etc)

https://www.trulia.com/home/164-robin-ln-panama-city-beach-fl-32407-42798385
Looks like somebody from out of state brought past the peak of COVID and trying to get out with a profit. Although it looks like they tried to AirBNB it.

This 1000 sq ft place sold for $202k just before COVID in 2020, brought at the end of COVID for $300k. It went up a lot in just over 5 years, eh? If it's such a good rental, why are they running away so fast?

The property tax is probably ~$2500, certainly not less than $2100. Insurance gotta be $6000, minimum.
https://clovered.com/homeowners-insurance/florida/panama-city-beach/

Very stubborn seller about to get Schlonged by the 10-15 year cyclical Florida Boom and Bust market. He lowered his price $15k in September and just relisted after the Winter Season, good luck with that buddy.

What incentive rates of 4-5% is this seller offering ;) ?

stfu says


We visited Panama City about 10 years ago with the intent of purchasing a vacation condo. We never pulled the trigger because, while the purchase prices were reasonable, the condo assc. fees ranged anywhere from $600 to $1,000 per month.


Which reminds me, this townhouse has an HOA of $375.

So looks like minimum $13,000/year just in tax, insurance, and HOA. Add a mortgage and a thousand or so for wear & tear (generous for a 40 year old property, built 1985) it's about $40k/year. I'm being very generous with the mortgage and assuming a whopper of a down payment.

Maybe an AirBNB rule change? Or the AirBNB bust?
6101   zzyzzx   2025 Mar 28, 8:49am  

https://www.fastcompany.com/91304658/housing-market-florida-texas-are-so-choppy-that-lennars-incentives-hit-highest-since-2009

Housing markets in Florida and Texas are so weak that builder Lennar spent the most on buyer incentives since 2009

America’s second-largest homebuilder Lennar spent the equivalent of 13% of home sales on buyer incentives last quarter. For a $400,000 home, that translates to $52,000 in incentives.
6102   Tenpoundbass   2025 Mar 28, 8:50am  

AD says

not sure if this include paying for the land





No square footage listed?

Lots of overlap between those squares. And the Clean up is bullshit. Every trade is required to clean up after themselves.
Not going to pay 27K to clean up. At most the GC has about 4 trailer loads of debris during the course of construction. No where near 27K. As they have cheap labor to pick it up and put it on the trailer, and they own the trailer, and the dump fee is a few hundred per load.

Interior, framing and exterior is double dipping between tiers.
Most electrical bids includes rough in, and finishing, and installing the lights.

What in the fuck is "Other" for 8K. The prices listed on those tiers are already on the high end, and if those were the costs, they already included all of the change orders.

You should be able to get a 1700 to 2000 sqft single story house up on an existing lot, for $175 to $225.
That's without the most premium fixtures, roofing materials, flooring you can find.
Also it's a shame but we're not building houses for your average American home owner, most every house is a 2 story mini mansion in a gated community, with the most premium materials you can find. You would have to be a USAID grifter to afford.
6103   zzyzzx   2025 Mar 28, 9:05am  

KB Home Stock Slides After Earnings Miss. Sales Were ‘Muted,’ CEO Says.

Shares of Los Angeles-based home builder KB Home were sliding after the company reported earnings and revenue that missed consensus expectations amid a “muted” start to the spring selling season.

KB Home reported diluted first-quarter earnings of $1.49 a share on $1.39 billion in revenue, the home builder said after the market closed Monday. Consensus estimates compiled by FactSet called for $1.57 a share on about $1.5 billion in revenue.

The stock was down 4.1% late Tuesday morning after closing up 3.4% on Monday. It was on pace for its lowest close since February 2024, and largest percent decrease since this past February, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their home buying decisions,” KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger said in a statement. “Demand at the start of this spring’s selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities.”

The company in February “took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to these adjustments,” he added. “Although we missed our sales goals for the first quarter, we are encouraged by the significant improvement in weekly sales and normalizing absorption pace over the last five weeks.”

That strategy shift started with cutting back on commissions in favor of advertising lower prices, Mezger said on a conference call. “If there were communities not selling […], we took additional steps to pull the price down further as needed.” The company lowered its base price in about half of its communities, Chief Operating Officer Robert McGibney added.

The company lowered its full-year guidance to call for housing revenue in a range from $6.6 billion to $7 billion, down from prior guidance calling for a range from $7 billion to $7.5 billion. It also lowered its expectations for average selling price and narrowed its margin expectations.

The guidance reduction is “primarily to reflect the lower level of net orders we generated in the first quarter,” Mezger said. KB Home reported 2,772 net orders, down about 17% from one year ago and below the 3,242 consensus expected.

KB Home isn’t the only builder having a slow start to spring. Lennar is one of the nation’s largest home builders, last week offered guidance for a narrower-than-expected home building margin as it expects to continue to offer incentives to drive sales volume amid affordability pressures.
6104   WookieMan   2025 Mar 28, 9:12am  

Their houses are trash. This shouldn’t be a surprise.

I might buy 2 more lots in my subdivision to be away from the cardboard boxes. Just have to pay for the sidewalks.
6105   AD   2025 Mar 28, 4:18pm  

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-echoes-great-recession-real-estate-analyst-2050648

Home sellers in Southwest Florida are slashing their asking prices at rates unseen since the years that followed the economic downturn of late 2007 to 2009, according to real estate professor Shelton Weeks.

"It's probably been over a decade since we've seen a situation like this," Weeks, who teaches at Florida Gulf Coast University, told Florida-based WINK News. "You know, you have to get back to the recovery days coming out of the Great Recession in terms of price discounts and stuff we're seeing in the market."

Newsweek contacted Weeks for comment by email on Wednesday morning.
6107   AD   2025 Mar 29, 10:25am  

Zillow Home Value Index for Panama City Beach is down about 9% from all time high set in August 2022 : https://www.zillow.com/home-values/6391/panama-city-beach-fl/

Zillow rent index is warm (it was "hot" a month ago): https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/panama-city-beach-fl/

..............................................................................................................................................................

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-prices-selling-spring-c3373ef8

"Delistings increased last December and continue to act as a safety valve in the housing market. In February, 9% of home listings were taken down after they failed to find a buyer, based on CoreLogic data. Last year, the delisting rate for February was just 3.2%, in line with the five-year average.

Because of regional variations that have opened up in the U.S. housing market, discounts are needed to tempt buyers in some parts of the country but not in others.

The number of homes for sale is back above prepandemic inventory levels—or very close—in 10 states, Realtor.com data shows. Supply is especially high in Florida, Colorado, Texas and Utah. Meanwhile, bidding wars are still common in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, which are chronically short of housing. "

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